Comprehensive assessment and variation characteristics of the drought intensity in North China based on EID

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North China ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Variation Characteristics

Abstract Under the new background of climate change, it is very important to identify the characteristics of drought in North China. Based on the daily Meteorological Drought Comprehensive Index from 494 national meteorological stations in North China during 1961–2019, the drought processes and their intensity are identified by applying the ‘extreme’ intensity-duration theory. Then, the stage variation characteristics of the drought trend, the average drought intensity and the drought frequency are analyzed. The results show that among the five drought intensity indexes the process maximum intensity demonstrates the greatest correlation coefficient with the disaster rate of drought in North China. Therefore, the process maximum intensity of drought is selected as the annual drought intensity to analyze the drought characteristics in North China. According to the climate warming trends, the study period is divided into three stages, i.e., 1951–1984 (stage I), 1985–1997 (stage II) and 1998–2019(stage III). The comprehensive results show that the drought intensity in North China has significant stage characteristics. In stage I, the drought shows an increasing trend in most parts of North China, but its average intensity is relatively weaker, with a lower severe drought frequency. The drought also shows an increasing trend in most parts in stage II, with a more significant increase rate than that in stage I, and the average drought intensity is the strongest and the severe drought frequency is the highest. In stage III, the drought shows a decreasing trend in some areas, and the average intensity is the weakest, with a lower severe drought frequency.

scholarly journals Identification of Regional Drought Processes in North China Using MCI Analysis

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1390
Author(s):  
Xiuhua Cai ◽  
Wenqian Zhang ◽  
Xiaoyi Fang ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Cunjie Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North China ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Process Identification ◽  
Strength Assessment ◽  
Affected Area ◽  
The Past ◽  
Identification Method ◽  
Regional Drought

Comprehensive identification of drought events is of great significance for monitoring and evaluating drought processes. Based on the date of daily precipitation, temperature and drought-affected area of 403 meteorological stations in North China from 1960 to 2019, the Comprehensive Drought Process Intensity Index (CDPII) has been developed by using the Meteorological-drought Composite Index (MCI) and regional drought process identification method, as well as the EIDR theory method. The regional drought processes in the past 60 years in North China, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi and Middle Inner Mongolia, were analyzed and identified. The result shows that the distribution characteristic of droughts with different intensities is as follows: The number of days of all annual-average mild droughts, moderate droughts and severe droughts was highest in Tianjin and that of extreme droughts was highest in Shanxi. The number of days of mild droughts was highest in May and lowest in January. The number of days of moderate droughts was highest in June. The number of days with mild and moderate drought showed an overall increasing trend, while the number of days with severe drought and above showed an overall decreasing trend (through a 95% significance test). The number of drought days was the highest in the 1990s. The annual frequency of drought is between 66.7% and 86.7%; the drought frequency in Hebei is the highest at 86.7%, followed by Beijing at 80%. There were 75 regional drought processes in North China from 1960 to 2019, and the correlation coefficient between process intensity and the drought-affected area was 0.55, which passed the 99% significance test. The comprehensive intensity of drought process from 27 April to 1 September 1972 was the strongest. From 18 May to 31 October 1965, the drought lasted 167 days. The overall drought intensity had a slight weakening trend in the past 60 years. A total of 75 regional drought processes occurred in North China, and the process intensity showed a trend of wavy decline with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.079 (95% significance test). Overall, the regional drought process identification method and strength assessment result tally with the drought disaster, which can better identify the regional drought process. Furthermore, including the last days, the average intensity, average scope comprehensive strength, there are many angles to monitor and evaluate the drought and drought process. These provide a reference for drought control and decision-making.

scholarly journals Analysis of Trends, Recurrences, Severity and Frequency of Droughts using SPI: Case of OR Tambo DM, Eastern Cape in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Nkamisa ◽  
Simbarashe Ndhleve ◽  
MDV Nakin ◽  
A Mngeni ◽  
H Kabiti
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
National Level ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Local Municipalities

Abstract South Africa is susceptible to droughts. However, there is little documentation on drought occurrence in South Africa at national level and its various administrative boundaries. The study aimed to profile the hydrological drought in ORTDM from 1998–2018; computing their frequency, severity and intensity so as to show areas of high vulnerability. Data used on this study was obtained from South African Weather Services in Pretoria. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated using the Meteorological Drought Monitor (MDM) software computing drought frequency, severity and intensity using 3 and 6 months SPI. The results showed a wide variation in monthly precipitation throughout the year. Coastal areas receive high rainfall than inland municipalities. When recorded in descending order, the drought intensity Nyandeni shows the highest drought frequency with a percentage of 62%, Mhlontlo (58%), KSDM (57%), Ngquza Hill (55%) and Port St Johns showing the least at (52%). The hydrological drought severity frequency and duration varied between 7 days to 9 weeks. Drought intensity class exposed the annual average intensity for the 5 local municipalities represented as follows; KSDM (-0.71), PSJM (-0.99), Ngquza Hill (-0.81), Nyandeni (-0.71) and Mhlontlo (-0.62). Maximum drought intensity for the 5 local municipalities showed the following results KSDM (-2.4), PSJM (-1.8), Ngquza Hill M (-1.9), Nyandeni M (-2.8) and Mhlontlo M (-3.1). The longest drought duration across OR Tambo was experienced in 2014 and has the following durations: KSDM (3 weeks), PSJM (5 weeks), Ngquza Hill (7 weeks), Nyandeni (8 weeks) and Mhlontlo (11 weeks). ORTDM is susceptible to hydrological droughts and the extent vary across local municipalities. The results could be used as a guide to the allocation of resources for drought relief purpose in a way that seeks to prioritize drought prone areas and vulnerable municipality. The SPI could be a useful when forecasting and estimating the frequency, duration and intensity of droughts. However, emphasis should be placed on improving the quality of data as this is key in improving the quality of its outcome.

Analysis on the Causes of Severe Drought in North China in Winter of 2008-2009

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quan-liang CHEN ◽  
Wei HUA ◽  
Guang-ming XIONG ◽  
Hui XU ◽  
Xiao-ran LIU
Keyword(s):  
North China ◽  
Severe Drought

Identification of biomarkers and functional modules from genomic data in stage-wise breast cancer

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athira K ◽  
Vrinda C ◽  
Sunil Kumar P V ◽  
Gopakumar G
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Expression Patterns ◽  
Differential Expression Analysis ◽  
Predictive Biomarkers ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Stage Iii ◽  
Functional Modules ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Multiple Stages

Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women across the world, with high incidence and mortality rates. Being a heterogeneous disease, gene expression profiling based analysis plays a significant role in understanding breast cancer. Since expression patterns of patients belonging to the same stage of breast cancer vary considerably, an integrated stage-wise analysis involving multiple samples is expected to give more comprehensive results and understanding of breast cancer. Objective: The objective of this study is to detect functionally significant modules from gene co-expression network of cancerous tissues and to extract prognostic genes related to multiple stages of breast cancer. Methods: To achieve this, a multiplex framework is modelled to map the multiple stages of breast cancer, which is followed by a modularity optimization method to identify functional modules from it. These functional modules are found to enrich many Gene Ontology terms significantly that are associated with cancer. Result and Discussion: predictive biomarkers are identified based on differential expression analysis of multiple stages of breast cancer. Conclusion: Our analysis identified 13 stage-I specific genes, 12 stage-II specific genes, and 42 stage-III specific genes that are significantly regulated and could be promising targets of breast cancer therapy. That apart, we could identify 29, 18 and 26 lncRNAs specific to stage I, stage II and stage III respectively.

Cardiac transthyretin wild-type amyloidosis (ATTRwt): a prospective study of 400 patients followed at the Italian referral center

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Milani ◽  
L Obici ◽  
R Mussinelli ◽  
M Basset ◽  
G Manfrinato ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural History ◽  
Median Survival ◽  
Troponin I ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Stage Iii ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Staging Systems ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
History Of

Abstract Background Cardiac wild type transthyretin (ATTRwt) amyloidosis, formerly known as senile systemic amyloidosis, is an increasingly recognized, progressive, and fatal cardiomyopathy. Two biomarkers staging systems were proposed based on NT-proBNP (in both cases) and troponin or estimated glomerular filtration rate, that are able to predict survival in this population. The availability of novel effective treatments requires large studies to describe the natural history of the disease in different populations. Objective To describe the natural history of the disease in a large, prospective, national series. Methods Starting in 2007, we protocolized data collection in all the patients diagnosed at our center (n=400 up to 7/2019). Results The referrals to our center increased over time: 5 cases (1%) between 2007–2009, 33 (9%) in 2010–2012, 90 (22%) in 2013–2015 and 272 (68%) in 2016–2019. Median age was 76 years [interquartile range (IQR): 71–80 years] and 372 patients (93%) were males. One hundred and seventy-three (43%) had atrial fibrillation, 63 (15%) had a history of ischemic cardiomyopathy and 64 (15%) underwent pacemaker or ICD implantation. NYHA class was I in 58 subjects (16%), II in 225 (63%) and III in 74 (21%). Median NT-proBNP was 3064 ng/L (IQR: 1817–5579 ng/L), troponin I 0.096 ng/mL (IQR: 0.063–0.158 ng/mL), eGFR 62 mL/min (IQR: 50–78 mL/min). Median IVS was 17 mm (IQR: 15–19 mm), PW 16 mm (IQR: 14–18 mm) and EF 53% (IQR: 45–57%). One-hundred and forty-eight subjects (37%) had a concomitant monoclonal component in serum and/or urine and/or an abnormal free light chain ratio. In these patients, the diagnosis was confirmed by immunoelectron microscopy or mass spectrometry. In 252 (63%) the diagnosis was based on bone scintigraphy. DNA analysis for amyloidogenic mutations in transthyretin and apolipoprotein A-I genes was negative in all subjects. The median survival of the whole cohort was 59 months. The Mayo Clinic staging based on NT-proBNP (cutoff: 3000 ng/L) and troponin I (cutoff: 0.1 ng/mL) discriminated 3 different groups [stage I: 131 (35%), stage II: 123 (32%) and stage III: 127 (33%)] with different survival between stage I and II (median 86 vs. 81 months, P=0.04) and between stage II and III (median 81 vs. 62 months, P<0.001). The UK staging system (NT-proBNP 3000 ng/L and eGFR 45 mL/min), discriminated three groups [stage I: 170 (45%), stage II: 165 (43%) and stage III: 45 (12%)] with a significant difference in survival: between stage I and stage II (86 vs. 52 months, P<0.001) and between stage II and stage III (median survival 52 vs. 33 months, P=0.045). Conclusions This is one of the largest series of patients with cardiac ATTRwt reported so far. Referrals and diagnoses increased exponentially in recent years, One-third of patients has a concomitant monoclonal gammopathy and needed tissue typing. Both the current staging systems offered good discrimination of staging and were validated in our independent cohort. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Incidence and Severity of Nasal Injuries in Preterm Infants Associated to Non-Invasive Ventilation Using Short Binasal Prong

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 2333794X2110104
Author(s):  
Débora de Fátima Camillo Ribeiro ◽  
Frieda Saicla Barros ◽  
Beatriz Luci Fernandes ◽  
Adriane Muller Nakato ◽  
Percy Nohama
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Infants ◽  
Professional Competence ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Invasive Ventilation ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Non Invasive Ventilation ◽  
Nasal Injury ◽  
Cause And Effect Diagram

Short binasal prongs can cause skin and mucosal damage in the nostrils of preterm infants. The objective of this study was to investigate the incidence and severity of nasal injuries in preterm infants during the use of short binasal prongs as non-invasive ventilation (NIV) interfaces. A prospective observational study was carried out in the public hospital in a Southern Brazil. The incidence and severity of internal and external nasal injuries were evaluated in 28 preterm infants who required NIV using short binasal prongs for more than 24 hours. In order to identify possible causes of those nasal injuries, the expertise researcher physiotherapist has been carried empirical observations, analyzed the collected data, and correlated them to the literature data. A cause and effect diagram was prepared to present the main causes of the nasal injury occurred in the preterm infants assessed. The incidence of external nasal injuries was 67.86%, and internal ones 71.43%. The external nasal injuries were classified as Stage I (68.42%) and Stage II (31.58%). All the internal injuries had Stage II. The cause and effect diagram was organized into 5 categories containing 17 secondary causes of nasal injuries. There was a high incidence of Stage II-internal nasal injury and Stage I-external nasal injury in preterm infants submitted to NIV using prongs. The injuries genesis can be related to intrinsic characteristics of materials, health care, neonatal conditions, professional competence, and equipment issues.

scholarly journals A Preliminary Study on the Use of Xylit as Filter Material for Domestic Wastewater Treatment

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5281
Author(s):  
Marcin Spychała ◽  
Tadeusz Nawrot ◽  
Radosław Matz
Keyword(s):  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Oxygen Demand ◽  
Domestic Wastewater ◽  
Filter Material ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Septic Tank ◽  
Preliminary Stage ◽  
Wastewater Quality

The aim of the study was to verify two morphological forms (“angel hair” and “scraps”) of xylit as a trickling filter material. The study was carried out on two types of polluted media: septic tank effluent (STE) and seminatural greywater (GW). The basic wastewater quality indicators, namely, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), total suspended solids (TSS), ammonium nitrogen (NNH4), and total phosphorus (Ptot) were used as the indicators of treatment efficiency. Filtering columns filled with the investigated material acted as conventional trickling filters at a hydraulic load of 376–472 cm3/d during the preliminary stage, 198–245 cm3/d during stage I, and 184–223 cm3/d during stage II. The removal efficiency of the two morphological forms of xylit did not differ significantly. The average efficiencies of treatment were as follows: for COD, over 70, 80, and 85% for preliminary stage, stage I and stage II, respectively; for BOD5, 77–79% (preliminary stage); for TSS, 42% and 70% during the preliminary stage, and 88, 91, and 65% during stage I; for NNH4, 97–99% for stage I and 36–49% for stage II; for Ptot, 51–54% for stage I and 52–56% for stage II. The study demonstrated that xylit was a material highly effective in wastewater quality indicators removal, even during the initial period of its use.

Projection of Future Drought Characteristics under Multiple Drought Indices

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1238
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Khan ◽  
Xingye Zhu ◽  
Xiaoping Jiang ◽  
Qaisar Saddique ◽  
Muhammad Saifullah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Series Data ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Songhua River ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Drought is a natural phenomenon caused by the variability of climate. This study was conducted in the Songhua River Basin of China. The drought events were estimated by using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which are based on precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. Furthermore, drought characteristics were identified for the assessment of drought trends in the study area. Short term (3 months) and long term (12 months) projected meteorological droughts were identified by using these drought indices. Future climate precipitation and temperature time series data (2021–2099) of various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were estimated by using outputs of the Global Circulation Model downscaled with a statistical methodology. The results showed that RCP 4.5 have a greater number of moderate drought events as compared to RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Moreover, it was also noted that RCP 8.5 (40 events) and RCP 4.5 (38 events) showed a higher number of severe droughts on 12-month drought analysis in the study area. A severe drought conditions projected between 2073 and 2076 with drought severity (DS-1.66) and drought intensity (DI-0.42) while extreme drying trends were projected between 2097 and 2099 with drought severity (DS-1.85) and drought intensity (DI-0.62). It was also observed that Precipitation Decile predicted a greater number of years under deficit conditions under RCP 2.6. Overall results revealed that more severe droughts are expected to occur during the late phase (2050–2099) by using RDI and SPI. A comparative analysis of 3- and 12-month drying trends showed that RDI is prevailing during the 12-month drought analysis while almost both drought indices (RDI and SPI) indicated same behavior of drought identification at 3-month drought analysis between 2021 and 2099 in the research area. The results of study will help to evaluate the risk of future drought in the study area and be beneficial for the researcher to make an appropriate mitigation strategy.

scholarly journals Gastric Cancer Treatments and Survival Trends in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 138-151
Author(s):  
Kelly A. Stahl ◽  
Elizabeth J. Olecki ◽  
Matthew E. Dixon ◽  
June S. Peng ◽  
Madeline B. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Treatment ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Specific Guideline ◽  
Kaplan Meier

Gastric cancer is the third most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Despite evidence-based recommendation for treatment, the current treatment patterns for all stages of gastric cancer remain largely unexplored. This study investigates trends in the treatments and survival of gastric cancer. The National Cancer Database was used to identify gastric adenocarcinoma patients from 2004–2016. Chi-square tests were used to examine subgroup differences between disease stages: Stage I, II/III and IV. Multivariate analyses identified factors associated with the receipt of guideline concordant care. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to assess three-year overall survival. The final cohort included 108,150 patients: 23,584 Stage I, 40,216 Stage II/III, and 44,350 Stage IV. Stage specific guideline concordant care was received in only 73% of patients with Stage I disease and 51% of patients with Stage II/III disease. Patients who received guideline consistent care had significantly improved survival compared to those who did not. Overall, we found only moderate improvement in guideline adherence and three-year overall survival during the 13-year study time period. This study showed underutilization of stage specific guideline concordant care for stage I and II/III disease.

Single Ventricle Palliation in a Developing Sub-Saharan African Country: What Should be Improved?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 164-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valdano Manuel ◽  
Humberto Morais ◽  
Aida L. R. Turquetto ◽  
Gade Miguel ◽  
Leonardo A. Miana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
African Country ◽  
Single Ventricle ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Stage Iii ◽  
Lost To Follow Up ◽  
Single Ventricle Palliation

Introduction: Single ventricle physiology management is challenging, especially in low-income countries. Objective: To report the palliation outcomes of single ventricle patients in a developing African country. Methods: We retrospectively studied 83 consecutive patients subjected to single ventricle palliation in a single center between March 2011 and December 2017. Preoperative data, surgical factors, postoperative results, and survival outcomes were analyzed. The patients were divided by palliation stage: I (pulmonary artery banding [PAB] or Blalock–Taussig shunt [BTS]), II (Glenn procedure), or III (Fontan procedure). Results: Of the 83 patients who underwent palliation (stages I-III), 38 deaths were observed (31 after stage I, six after stage II, and one after stage III) for an overall mortality of 45.7%. The main causes of operative mortality were multiple organ dysfunction due to sepsis, shunt occlusion, and cardiogenic shock. Twenty-eight survivors were lost to follow-up (22 after stage I, six after stage II). Thirteen stage II survivors are still waiting for stage III. The mean follow-up was 366 ± 369 days. Five-year survival was 28.4 % for PAB and 30.1% for BTS, while that for stage II and III was 49.8% and 57.1%, respectively. Age (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.47-0.7; P = .000) and weight at surgery (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.64; P = .002) impacted survival. Conclusion: A high-mortality rate was observed in this initial experience, mainly in stage I patients. A large number of patients were lost to follow-up. A task force to improve outcomes is urgently required.

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