Predicting Heart Failure Events in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease and Impaired Glucose Tolerance: Insights from the Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) Trial
Abstract BACKGROUND Heart failure is a fatal complication of type 2 diabetes but little is known about its incidence in patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). We used Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial data to identify predictors of hospitalisation for heart failure (hHF) or cardiovascular (CV) death in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and IGT randomized to acarbose 50mg TID or placebo. METHODS Independent hHF or hHF/CV death risk factors were determined using Cox proportional hazards models, with participants censored at first hHF event, CV death, or end of follow-up. Baseline variables evaluated included age, sex, body mass index, smoking, plasma creatinine, prior CV events, fasting and 2-hour post-load glucose, and HbA1c. Those with nominal univariate associations (P<0.1) were entered into a multivariate model, with P<0.05 required for retention. Recurrent hHF events were analysed using the Andersen-Gill model, a generalisation of the Cox proportional hazards model, and logistic regression was used for death following hHF. RESULTS During median 5 years follow-up, hHF/CV death occurred in 393 (6.0%) ACE participants (triggered by 138 hHF events and 255 CV deaths). Significant hHF/CV death multivariate predictors were higher age and plasma creatinine, as well as prior heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke. Acarbose, compared with placebo, did not reduce hHF/CV death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.89, 95% CI 0.64–1.24, P=0.48) or hHF (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.74–1.10, P=0.32). Forty of the 138 participants who experienced hHF had ³2 admissions, and 58 died. No significant effect of acarbose, compared with placebo, was seen for recurrent hHF (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.92-1.55, p=0.19), or for all-cause mortality (odds ratio 1.49, 95% CI 0.75-2.95, p=0.25).CONCLUSIONS Patients with CHD and IGT at greater risk of hHF/CV death were older with higher plasma creatinine, and had prior HF, MI, AF or stroke. Addition of acarbose to optimized CV therapy did not reduce the risk of hHF/CV death or hHF. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00829660, and the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry, number ISRCTN91899513.