Differential Sensitivities of Electricity Consumption to Global Warming Across Regions of Argentina
Abstract The description of the relationship between temperature (T) and electricity consumption (EC) is key to improve our understanding of a potential climate change amplification feedback and, thus, energy planning. We sought to characterize the relationship between the EC and daily T of different regions of Argentina and use these historical relationships to estimate expected EC under T future scenarios. We used a time series approach to model, remove trends and seasonality of EC accounting for breaks and discontinuities. EC and T data were obtained from Argentine Wholesale Market Administrator Company and global databases, respectively. We evaluated the T-EC model for the period between 1997 and 2014 and two sub-periods: 1997–2001 and 2011–2014. We used modelled temperature projections for the 2027–2044 period based on the Representative Pathway Concentration 4.5 together with our region specific T-EC models to predict changes in EC due to T changes. The shape of the T-EC relationships was quite stable between periods and regions but varied according to the temperature gradient. We found large increases in EC in warm days (from 40 to 126 Wh/cap/ºC) and a region specific response to cold days (from flat to steep responses). The T at which EC was minimum varied between 14 and 20°C and increased in time as mean daily T also increased. Estimated temperature projections translate into an average increase factor of 7.2 in EC with contrasting relative importance between regions of Argentina. Results highlight potential sensitivity of EC to T in the developing countries.