Impacts of Information Propagation on Individual Migration Routes and Epidemic Spread Over Metapopulation Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Wang ◽  
Min Gou ◽  
Yuexing Han
Keyword(s):  
Information Transmission ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Migration Route ◽  
Migration Behavior ◽  
Information Propagation ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Heterogeneous Distribution

Abstract Information propagation driven by the epidemic may cause the awareness of individuals to change their behavior, thus preventing themselves from being infected. For example, the aware individuals migrate away from areas with severe infection. In this paper, we study the coupling transmission of epidemic and information in metapopulation networks, and mainly explore how the change of individual migration behavior affects the epidemic spreading. Combined with the transition probability tree of individual states, we use Markov chain approach for theoretical analysis and derive the epidemic threshold. Through numerous Monte Carlo simulation, we verify the accuracy of Markov equations for the prediction of epidemic sprading. The results show that the role of information transmission in suppressing the epidemic in terms of the epidemic threshold and the infection scale is very limited. Further increase of information transmission rate beyond its critical value will no longer affect the epidemic. The initial population distribution is a fundamental factor in the epidemic dynamics, and in the case of heterogeneous distribution, an appropriate movement of individuals can delay the epidemic spread with a smaller threshold. In addition, topological homogeneity of individual migration route is beneficial for the epidemic control. This study analyzes the interaction between epidemic and information on the metapopulation network model, which can provide guidance for epidemic intervention in reality.

Variation in seed longevity among different populations, species and genera found in collections from wild Australian plants

2009 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jitka Kochanek ◽  
Kathryn J. Steadman ◽  
Robin J. Probert ◽  
Steve W. Adkins
Keyword(s):  
Survival Data ◽  
Natural Variation ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Seed Longevity ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Seed Collection ◽  
Different Populations ◽  
Collection Strategies

Natural variation in longevity among populations of the same species, and between species and genera was investigated to inform seed-collection strategies. Seed longevity for 30 wild Australian populations was measured with a controlled ageing test. The populations were represented by eight species from three genera, namely Minuria (Asteraceae), Wahlenbergia (Campanulaceae) and Plantago (Plantaginaceae), each collected from up to eight different locations. Seed-survival curves were fitted by using the equation v = Ki + p/σ, which allowed comparison of the initial population viability (Ki), the population distribution of seed life spans (σ), and mean seed longevity (P50, calculated as Ki × σ). At a genus level, the average P50 indicated that M. integerrima (DC) Benth. is the longest-lived, Wahlenbergia is intermediate and Plantago is the shortest-lived. However, there was also variation in P50 values among populations of most species. Some species had the same σ value for all populations, e.g. all eight populations of W. communis Carolin had the same σ value, with the differences in Ki causing the variation in P50. This consistency in σ existed even though seedlots were collected from diverse locations, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 180 to 840 mm. In comparison, for the six seedlots of W. gracilis (G.Forst.) A.DC., a large difference in σ as well as Ki led to the variability in P50, with some indication of a possible correlation between annual rainfall and P50 or σ in some species. A relationship between variation in σ and the breeding system is proposed for Wahlenbergia. The data show that it can be risky to expect accurate prediction of seed longevity for a wild species on the basis of survival data from a single collection.

scholarly journals A Tent Marine Predators Algorithm with Estimation Distribution Algorithm and Gaussian Random Walk for Continuous Optimization Problems

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Chang-Jian Sun ◽  
Fang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Continuous Optimization ◽  
Population Diversity ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Local Optimum ◽  
Marine Predators ◽  
Gaussian Random Walk ◽  
Estimation Distribution Algorithm

The marine predators algorithm (MPA) is a novel population-based optimization method that has been widely used in real-world optimization applications. However, MPA can easily fall into a local optimum because of the lack of population diversity in the late stage of optimization. To overcome this shortcoming, this paper proposes an MPA variant with a hybrid estimation distribution algorithm (EDA) and a Gaussian random walk strategy, namely, HEGMPA. The initial population is constructed using cubic mapping to enhance the diversity of individuals in the population. Then, EDA is adapted into MPA to modify the evolutionary direction using the population distribution information, thus improving the convergence performance of the algorithm. In addition, a Gaussian random walk strategy with medium solution is used to help the algorithm get rid of stagnation. The proposed algorithm is verified by simulation using the CEC2014 test suite. Simulation results show that the performance of HEGMPA is more competitive than other comparative algorithms, with significant improvements in terms of convergence accuracy and convergence speed.

scholarly journals Research on public opinion guidance of converging media based on AHP and transmission dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 6857-6886
Author(s):  
Jinbao Song ◽  
◽  
Xiaoya Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
New Media ◽  
Information Transmission ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Complex Dynamics ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Dissemination Process ◽  
Countermeasures And Suggestions ◽  
New Research

<abstract> <p>In the 5G era, media convergence and technological updates lead to tremendous changes in the dissemination of public opinion information. The guidance of public opinion in the converged media environment is a new research topic. Users participate in the discussion of different media, and flow in and out from different media, which gradually generate a new complex dynamics model of the dissemination of public opinion information. An index system for evaluating the influence of converged media communication that combines the advantages of traditional media and new media is constructed. We use AHP to determine the index weights in the evaluation system and conduct consistency tests. The final weight of each media is determined through the combination of subjective and objective methods, which provides data supports for later determining the participation of various media in the dissemination process of public opinion information. Based on the SIR model, a UCIR (unknown-contact-infected-recovered) dynamic model is established. The simulation results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the UCIR model is 31.6% lower than that of the SIR model. Finally, by fixing the key parameters <italic>α</italic>, <italic>β</italic>, <italic>θ</italic>, <italic>ε</italic>, <italic>p</italic>, <italic>q</italic> in the UCIR model, and changing only one of them, we studied the effect of the transition probability between different states on the process of public opinion information transmission, and then proposed corresponding guidance. In addition, from the two perspectives of network media and government, the countermeasures and suggestions for the guidance of public opinion are proposed. We try to solve the problems of humanities and social sciences with the method of natural science. These research results can provide theoretical and methodological support for people to understand the law of public opinion information transmission and establish a guiding mechanism for public opinion information transmission.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals Quantifying the Influence of Delay in Opinion Transmission of COVID-19 Information Propagation: Modeling Study

10.2196/25734 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. e25734
Author(s):  
Fulian Yin ◽  
Xueying Shao ◽  
Meiqi Ji ◽  
Jianhong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Information Transmission ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Information Propagation ◽  
The Public ◽  
New Information

Background In a fast-evolving public health crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple pieces of relevant information can be posted sequentially on a social media platform. The interval between subsequent posting times may have a different impact on the transmission and cross-propagation of the old and new information that results in a different peak value and a final size of forwarding users of the new information, depending on the content correlation and whether the new information is posted during the outbreak or quasi–steady-state phase of the old information. Objective This study aims to help in designing effective communication strategies to ensure information is delivered to the maximal number of users. Methods We developed and analyzed two classes of susceptible-forwarding-immune information propagation models with delay in transmission to describe the cross-propagation process of relevant information. A total of 28,661 retweets of typical information were posted frequently by each opinion leader related to COVID-19 with high influence (data acquisition up to February 19, 2020). The information was processed into discrete points with a frequency of 10 minutes, and the real data were fitted by the model numerical simulation. Furthermore, the influence of parameters on information dissemination and the design of a publishing strategy were analyzed. Results The current epidemic outbreak situation, epidemic prevention, and other related authoritative information cannot be timely and effectively browsed by the public. The ingenious use of information release intervals can effectively enhance the interaction between information and realize the effective diffusion of information. We parameterized our models using real data from Sina Microblog and used the parameterized models to define and evaluate mutual attractiveness indexes, and we used these indexes and parameter sensitivity analyses to inform optimal strategies for new information to be effectively propagated in the microblog. The results of the parameter analysis showed that using different attractiveness indexes as the key parameters can control the information transmission with different release intervals, so it is considered as a key link in the design of an information communication strategy. At the same time, the dynamic process of information was analyzed through index evaluation. Conclusions Our model can carry out an accurate numerical simulation of information at different release intervals and achieve a dynamic evaluation of information transmission by constructing an indicator system so as to provide theoretical support and strategic suggestions for government decision making. This study optimizes information posting strategies to maximize communication efforts for delivering key public health messages to the public for better outcomes of public health emergency management.

Population dynamics of nitrite oxidizers in nitrifying granules

2009 ◽  
Vol 60 (10) ◽  
pp. 2529-2536 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Vázquez-Padín ◽  
M. Figueroa ◽  
A. Mosquera-Corral ◽  
J. L. Campos ◽  
R. Méndez
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Physical Structure ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Microbial Composition ◽  
Mean Diameter ◽  
Nitrite Oxidizing Bacteria ◽  
Nitrite Oxidizers

The competition between Nitrospira and Nitrobacter species was analyzed in this work under conditions of excess of nitrite. A population of nitrite oxidizing bacteria (NOB) was developed from nitrifying biomass grown as granules with a mean diameter of 0.8 mm, whose feed was switched from ammonium to nitrite. The initial population distribution of the granules was: 60% Nitrosomonas and 30% Nitrospira and it evolved to 45% Nitrobacter and 40% Nitrospira measured 177 days after the change in the feeding. The disappearance of Nitrosomonas allowed the development of an important population of Nitrobacter demonstrating that these organisms, characterized by being r strategists NOB, are poor competitors when oxygen is the limiting substrate. Interestingly, the physical structure of the granules was not altered by the change of its microbial composition during the 220 days of operation.

Location-specific consequences of beach seine and gillnet capture on upriver-migrating sockeye salmon migration behavior and fate

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (11) ◽  
pp. 2011-2023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur L. Bass ◽  
Scott G. Hinch ◽  
David A. Patterson ◽  
Steven J. Cooke ◽  
Anthony P. Farrell
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Time ◽  
Sockeye Salmon ◽  
Pacific Salmon ◽  
Migration Route ◽  
Migration Behavior ◽  
Beach Seine ◽  
Gill Net ◽  
Total Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Incidental Mortality

Fish released after capture, or fish interacting with gear but escaping, sometimes experience fishing-related incidental mortality (FRIM). For adult Pacific salmon migrations, knowing the magnitude of FRIM is important to estimate escapement accurately and to understand the total impact of a specific fishery. To determine how multiple gear types are associated with FRIM at different levels of maturity, we captured sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) by both gill net and beach seine at three locations along their migration route (10%, 26%, and 72% of a 500 km freshwater migration) and determined their migratory success using biotelemetry. FRIM was higher for fish captured by gill net except at the location closest to spawning grounds. In addition, salmon captured by gill net at the lower river locations temporarily delayed migration, potentially indicating a requirement for lengthier recovery time compared with beach-seined fish. These results provide the first empirical and parallel comparison of these two common in-river fishing methods for salmon, revealing clear differences in FRIM between the two fishing methods in lower river fisheries and the importance of maturity.

Nine years of Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) spring migration behavior

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (5) ◽  
pp. 1501-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piper L Roby ◽  
Mark W Gumbert ◽  
Michael J Lacki
Keyword(s):  
Barometric Pressure ◽  
Spring Migration ◽  
Migration Route ◽  
Migration Behavior ◽  
Myotis Sodalis ◽  
Indiana Bat ◽  
Migration Corridors ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Nighttime Temperatures ◽  
Spring Emergence

Abstract The endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) congregates in large hibernation groups in winter and travels after spring emergence to form summer maternity colonies, but information on migration behavior in this species remains limited to mostly band recovery observations. We tracked female Indiana bats in spring migration toward summer grounds using aerial radiotelemetry. Adult female Indiana bats were radiotagged in spring from 2009 through 2017, with 15 individuals successfully tracked to summer grounds and an additional 11 bats located in summer grounds via aerial telemetry after migration was complete. This resulted in the location of 17 previously unknown summer grounds for female Indiana bats, including adding Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi to the summer maternity range. Two of the colonies identified in this study were south of the previously known southernmost colony in Tennessee, expanding the summer maternity range for the species by 178 km. Time-stamped location fixes along the migration path provided information about nightly and overall distances traveled, duration of travel, migration speed, and weather-related influences on bat behavior. Bats traveled 164.6 ± 26.2 km (± SE) on average from hibernacula to summer grounds and were migrating for an average of 7.3 ± 1.4 calendar nights. Bats alternated between foraging and traveling throughout each night of their migration route. Nightly migration rate was 9.9 ± 0.8 km/h and bats were active on the landscape for an average of 6.1 ± 0.4 h/night. Lower nighttime temperatures and lower barometric pressure correlated with use of layover areas during a migration night. Understanding bat behavior during migration can provide pertinent information for land managers to consider in efforts to conserve potential migration corridors, foraging areas, and roosting habitats of species in decline.

scholarly journals Migration and Reallocation of Educational Resources in China – From the Perspective of Educational Resource Capacity

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Jing Liu ◽  
Yongchong Mao ◽  
Jinhua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Population Distribution ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Compulsory Education ◽  
Migrant Children ◽  
Educational Resources ◽  
Urban Migration ◽  
Migration Behavior ◽  
Allocation Mechanism ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Rural To Urban Migration

The massive rural-to-urban migration, which tends to occur more frequently in family units, has caused increasing children to follow their migrant parents to cities. The surges of migrant children relocating to cities trigger a strong demand for compulsory education for migrant children in migrant inflow cities and raise challenges for capacity of urban educational resources. This study discovers that China suffers from a severely unequal distribution of educational resources across different regions as well as a significant imbalance between supply and demand of education. The allocation of educational resources is subject to the capacity of education supply. Based on a review of the population distribution and the trend of recent migration in China, an analysis is conducted to simulate migrant children’s migration behavior. The analysis results imply that the flow of the demand for education caused by the migrant children benefits the maintenance of an equitable education system. It is recommended that regional supplemental education solutions be identified in migrant outflow regions. It is encouraged that migrant outflow regions make more effort to accommodate migrant children. More specifically, it is encouraged to make more flexible and customized distribution of educational resources so that an allocation mechanism suitable for the massive rural-to-urban migration can be established.

A Quantum Chaos Clonal Multiobjective Evolutionary Method Reasearch

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 226
Author(s):  
Shuyue Wu
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Computing ◽  
Immune System ◽  
Quantum Chaos ◽  
Artificial Immune System ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Clonal Selection ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Artificial Immune ◽  
Clonal Selection Theory ◽  
Chaos Search

A quantum chaos cloning multi-objective evolutionary algorithm was proposed herein based on chaos search ergodicity, quantum computing efficiency and clonal selection theory of antibodies in artificial immune system. The qubits encoded initial population is used in the new algorithm, Chaos quantum rotation gates are introduced to update individuals, crowding distance  is used  to keep solution  population distribution and diversity. Theoretical analysis and simulation show the effectiveness of the algorithm.

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