scholarly journals Multi-Hazard Susceptibility Assessment: Case Study – Municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uroš Durlević ◽  
Ivan Novković ◽  
Ivan Samardžić ◽  
Vladimir Ćurić ◽  
Natalija Batoćanin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Sediment Production ◽  
Erosion Coefficient ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Fourth Step ◽  
Ecological Importance ◽  
Total Sediment

Abstract The Municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia) is an area located within the Šar Mountain National Park, and due to its great ecological importance, it was necessary to analyze the terrain susceptibility to the occurrence of natural hazards. The main goal of this research is to determine the locations that are most susceptible to natural hazards (earthquakes, erosion, torrential flooding, snow avalanches and forest fires) on the territory of the municipality of Štrpce. By utilizing the geographic information systems (GIS), the first step was to analyze seismic hazard for a 475-year return period (VII-VIII MCS for the observed area). The second step was to determine the intensity of erosion and total sediment production using erosion potential model (EPM). The mean erosion coefficient is quantified to 0.34, and the total sediment production is 131.795 m3/year. The third step was the analysis potential of torrential floods using the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). This method indicated that 43.33% of the municipality is highly susceptible, and 18.86% is very highly susceptible to torrential floods. The Avalanches Potential Index (AVAPI) method was used for the fourth step which involved determining the area prone to the occurrence and movement of avalanches. It was determined that 9.1 km2 of the municipality area is susceptible to this type of hazard. The fifth step included the analysis of the terrain susceptibility to the occurrence of forest fires. More than half of the municipal area (52.4%) is highly susceptible, and 8.5% is very highly susceptible to forest fires. Following the five criteria analysis, weight coefficients were assigned for each of the analyzed parameters using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), giving the result of the total susceptibility of the territory of Štrpce to natural hazards. Results indicated that over 45% of the municipality is highly or very highly prone to various natural hazards. This paper presents a significant step towards better understanding and more adequate management and mitigation of natural hazards not only in the investigated area, but on regional and national levels as well.

scholarly journals Multihazard susceptibility assessment: A case study – Municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1414-1431
Author(s):  
Uroš Durlević ◽  
Ivan Novković ◽  
Tin Lukić ◽  
Aleksandar Valjarević ◽  
Ivan Samardžić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Fourth Step ◽  
Ecological Importance ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Abstract The municipality of Štrpce (Southern Serbia) is an area located within Šar Mountain National Park, which is of great ecological importance. Due to the vicinity of settlements, it is necessary to analyze the terrain's susceptibility to natural hazards. The main goal of this research was to determine locations that are highly vulnerable at times of natural hazards (such as earthquakes, erosion, torrential flooding, snow avalanches, and forest fires). The first step in this research was to analyze seismic hazards for a 475 years return period (VII–VIII MCS for the observed area), which was possible by means of Geographic Information Systems. The second step was to determine the intensity of erosion and total sediment production using the Erosion Potential Model. The third step was related to the analysis of the potential of torrential floods using the Flash Flood Potential Index. The Avalanches Potential Index method was used as the fourth step. The fifth step included the analysis of a terrain susceptibility to the occurrence of forest fires. Following the five criteria analysis, weight coefficients were assigned to each of the analyzed parameters by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which provided results of the total susceptibility to natural hazards of the territory of Štrpce. Results indicated that over 45% of the municipality is highly or very highly susceptible to various natural hazards. This article represents a significant step toward a better understanding of natural hazards and it provides a unique knowledge basis for establishing the management and mitigation guidelines and measures, not only within the researched area but at regional and national levels as well.

scholarly journals Low-Cost Solution for Assessment of Urban Flash Flood Impacts Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Images and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Case Study of Ras Ghareb City, Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Sadek ◽  
Xuxiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Sentinel 2

Natural hazards are indeed counted as the most critical challenges facing our world, represented in floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, and forest fires. Among these natural hazards, the flash flood is regarded the most frequent. In this work, we utilized two Sentinel-2 satellite images, before and after the flash flood, SRTM and photos captured by using a helicopter. This paper aims at three prime objectives. Firstly, the flood influence is determined on the city of Ras Ghareb, Egypt, based on analyzing free satellite data (Sentinel-2 images). Secondly, fuzzy the analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) method and a geographical information system (GIS) are integrated for flood risk analysis and evaluation in the flood-prone area. Finally, such a flood vulnerability map is used as an index to assist the decision-makers prepare for probable flooding. FAHP is preferable as it can cater to the uncertainties in data and analysis. As a result, FAHP is appropriate to determine the flood-vulnerable area in cities especially due to the matching with the most destroyed areas identified by the change detection between the two Sentinel-2 images. Then, the decision-maker can depend on Sentinel-2 images to estimate the flood influence through a regional scale or applying the FAHP on cities susceptible to flash floods in case of unavailable satellite images to contribute in establishing an early warning system enough to the evacuation of the risky areas.

scholarly journals Assessment of torrential flood and landslide susceptibility of terrain: Case study - Mlava River Basin (Serbia)

2021 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-75
Author(s):  
Uros Durlevic
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Statistical Probability ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Index

Torrential floods and landslides are frequent natural disasters in Serbia, but also in the Mlava River Basin. Due to the large number of settlements, the main goal of this research is to determine the locations that are most susceptible to torrential floods and landslides in the Mlava River Basin. Using geographic information systems (GIS), the first step is the analysis the susceptibility of the terrain to torrential floods using the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) method. According to the obtained data, it was determined that 31.53% of the Mlava River Basin is susceptible, and 10.46% is very susceptible to torrential floods. The second step is the analysis of the susceptibility of the terrain to landslides, for which the statistical Probability method (PM) and the Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) were used. According to the results of the LSI index and PM method, 8.09% and 14.04% of the basin area is in the category of high and very high susceptibility to landslides. This paper represents a significant step towards a better understanding of unfavorable natural conditions in the Mlava River Basin, and the obtained results are applicable to numerous human activities in the research area (environmental protection, sustainable management of agricultural plots, protection of water and forest resources and ecosystems, etc.).

scholarly journals Assessment of torrential flood susceptibility: Case study - Ukrina River Basin (B&H)

2019 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Novica Lovric ◽  
Radislav Tosic ◽  
Slavoljub Dragicevic ◽  
Ivan Novkovic
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Potential Method ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Flood Susceptibility ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Susceptibility Model ◽  
Torrential Flood ◽  
The Republic

Torrential floods are the most frequent natural catastrophic events in the Republic of Srpska (B&H). The main objective of this study is susceptibility assessment to torrential floods in Ukrina River Basin using Index Based Method (IBM) and Flash Flood Potential Method (FFPI), which operates entirely in a GIS environment. The definition and identification of influencing factors for torrential floods was the first step in the process of developing the Torrential Flood Susceptibility Model (TFSM). According to the results of these models, 54.00% and 40.86% of the Ukrina Basin area is in the categories of strong and very strong susceptibility to torrential floods. The second task was to identify the torrential basins and create the Register and the Cadastre of Torrential Basins in the Ukrina River Basin. After detailed field survey and analyses, 154 torrential basins have been identified, occupying 551.37 km2 of the Ukrina Basin. According to the validation indicators of the Torrential Flood Susceptibility Model, 138 torrential basins are in the category of strong and very strong susceptibility according to Index Based Method, while 112 torrential basins are in the same category of susceptibility according to Flash Flood Potential Index Method, which are very good results of the validation. This paper presents the significant step towards better understanding of the phenomenon of torrential floods in the Republic of Srpska (B&H). The data presented in this paper are also significant to practical issues such as integral water management projects, spatial planning, sustainable land planning and protection of soil, forest ecosystems and environmental protection, sediment management, agriculture and other human activities.

Using convection-permitting climate models and a high-resolution distributed hydrological model to assess future changes in Alpine flash floods.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjanne Zander ◽  
Pety Viguurs ◽  
Frederiek Sperna Weiland ◽  
Albrecht Weerts
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
European Climate

<p>Flash Floods are damaging natural hazards which often occur in the European Alps. Precipitation patterns and intensity may change in a future climate affecting their occurrence and magnitude. For impact studies, flash floods can be difficult to simulate due the complex orography and limited extent & duration of the heavy rainfall events which trigger them. The new generation convection-permitting regional climate models improve the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation (Ban et al., 2021).</p><p>Therefore, this study combines such simulations with high-resolution distributed hydrological modelling to assess changes in flash flood frequency and occurrence over the Alpine terrain. We use the state-of-the-art Unified Model (Berthou et al., 2018) to drive a high-resolution distributed hydrological wflow_sbm model (e.g. Imhoff et al., 2020) covering most of the Alpine mountain range on an hourly resolution. Simulations of the future climate RCP 8.5 for the end-of-century (2096-2105) and current climate (1998-2007) are compared.</p><p>First, the wflow_sbm model was validated by comparing ERA5 driven simulation with streamflow observations (across Rhone, Rhine, Po, Adige and Danube). Second, the wflow_sbm simulation driven by UM simulation of the current climate was compared to a dataset of historical flood occurrences (Paprotny et al., 2018, Earth Syst. Sci. Data) to validate if the model can accurately simulate the location of the flash floods and to determine a suitable threshold for flash flooding. Finally, the future run was used to asses changes in flash flood frequency and occurrence. Results show an increase in flash flood frequency for the Upper Rhine and Adige catchments. For the Rhone the increase was less pronounced. The locations where the flash floods occur did not change much.</p><p>This research is embedded in the EU H2020 project EUCP (EUropean Climate Prediction system) (https://www.eucp-project.eu/), which aims to support climate adaptation and mitigation decisions for the coming decades by developing a regional climate prediction and projection system based on high-resolution climate models for Europe.</p><p> </p><p>N. Ban, E. Brisson, C. Caillaud, E. Coppola, E. Pichelli, S. Sobolowski, …, M.J. Zander (2021): “The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at the kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation”, manuscript accepted for publication in Climate Dynamics.</p><p>S. Berthou, E.J. Kendon, S. C. Chan, N. Ban, D. Leutwyler, C. Schär, and G. Fosser, 2018, “Pan-european climate at convection-permitting scale: a model intercomparison study.” Climate Dynamics, pages 1–25, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4114-6</p><p>Imhoff, R.O., W. van Verseveld, B. van Osnabrugge, A.H. Weerts, 2020. “Scaling point-scale pedotransfer functions parameter estimates for seamless large-domain high-resolution distributed hydrological modelling: An example for the Rhine river.” Water Resources Research, 56. Doi: 10.1029/2019WR026807</p><p>Paprotny, D., Morales Napoles, O., & Jonkman, S. N., 2018. "HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870". Earth System Science Data, 10, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018</p>

scholarly journals Flash Flood and Extreme Rainfall Forecast through One-Way Coupling of WRF-SMAP Models: Natural Hazards in Rio de Janeiro State

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 834
Author(s):  
Priscila da Cunha Luz Barcellos ◽  
Marcio Cataldi
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Streamflow Forecast ◽  
Janeiro State

Flash floods and extreme rains are destructive phenomena and difficult to forecast. In 2011, the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state suffered one of the largest natural hazards in Brazil, affecting more than 300,000 people, leaving more than 900 dead. This article simulates this natural hazard through Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) and streamflow forecast ensemble, using 18 combinations of parameterizations between cumulus, microphysics, surface layer, planetary boundary layer, land surface and lateral contour conditions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, coupling to the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) hydrological model, seeking to find the best set of parametrizations for the forecasting of extreme events in the region. The results showed rainfall and streamflow forecast were underestimated by the models, reaching an error of 57.4% to QPF and 24.6% error to streamflow, and part of these errors are related to the lack of skill of the atmospheric model in predicting the intensity and the spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall. These results bring to light the limitations of numerical weather prediction, possibly due to the lack of initiatives involving the adaptation of empirical constants, intrinsic in the parametrization models, to the specific atmospheric conditions of each region of the country.

scholarly journals Natural Hazards and the press in the western Mediterranean region

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 81-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Llasat-Botija ◽  
M. C. Llasat ◽  
L. López
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Press Coverage ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Press ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study analyses press articles published between 1982 and 2005 in an attempt to describe the social perception of natural hazards in Catalonia. The articles included in the database have been classified according to different types of risk. In addition, the study examines the evolution of each type of risk in the press coverage during the study period. Finally, the results have been compared to data provided by insurance companies with respect to compensations paid out for damages. Conclusions show that floods are the most important natural hazard in the region, but that the number of headlines for each event is greater in the case of snowfalls and forest fires. Factors such as the season of the year, the proximity of the affected region to the capital, the topical issues at the time, and the presence of other important news must be considered when the impact in the press is analysed.

scholarly journals Ο κίνδυνος πλημμύρων από τον χείμαρρο Διακονιάρη του πολεοδομικού συγκροτήματος της πόλεως των Πατρών, ΒΔ Πελοπόννησος, Ελλάδα

2005 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Λ. ΣΤΑΜΑΤΟΠΟΥΛΟΣ
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
River Floods ◽  
Winter Time ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Temporary River

Natural hazards, on a national and international scale, have increased in the last years as a consequence of climatic changes and human activity resulting in an unfavourable impact on socioeconomic conditions. Catastrophic phenomena related to river floods or slopes instability are natural hazards originating from seismic, tectonic and volcanic activity, as well as, from erosional and meteorological events, and human intervention. The Vulnerability being particularly high in the regions intensely populated, like the analyzed case study, high is the Risk. The importance of geomorphological studies in assessing natural hazards due to river floods was brought into focus with recent floods event that occurred in the Patras urban area (NW Péloponnèse) and particular from Diakoniaris river. Diakoniaris river is about 11 Km long, with mouth in Patraikos gulf. His bed angle slope ranges from 17°degrees of the high basin to 1°degrees of his alluvial playing. Due to geological and geomorphological characteristics of his basin, Diakoniaris is a temporary river. During summer season it is completely dry, whereas in autumn and winter time discharge increases remarkably. The area of Patras has a mean annual rainfall ranging from 698,5 to 747.3 mm. It flows in E-W direction, traversing the Patras town. During the autumn and winter months intense rainfalls persisted for several hours producing severe flash flood mainly in the alluvial playing of Diakoniaris River. There were some loss of life and damage to buildings, transport infrastructure and agricultural crops. Similar events happened also in southwestern Patras town in 1997, October and 2001, December. The damages are mainly due to absence of good alluvial playing management practices in recent decades, concretely after the year 1960 during the urban growth of the Patras town.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document