scholarly journals Pandemic Metric with Confidence (PMC) Model to Predict Trustworthy Probability of Utilized COVID-19 Pandemic Trajectory across the Global

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengkang Zuo ◽  
Lei Yan ◽  
Hongying Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Driving Factors ◽  
Error Threshold ◽  
Bernoulli Distribution ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
High Confidence ◽  
Acceptable Error ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Pmc Model ◽  
Average Confidence

Abstract Lots of works aim to reveal the driving factors of COVID-19 pandemic trajectory yet ignore the confidence of utilized trajectory data, making consequent results suspicious. Hereby, we proposed a pandemic metric with confidence (PMC) model in the hypothesis of Bernoulli Distribution of nine trajectories reported from 113 countries. Results exhibit the average confidence of trajectories across the global not in excess of 12.1% with the error threshold configuration of 1E-5. In contrast, the 95% high confidence setting also failed to predict the trajectory containing the acceptable error not beyond 1E-3. Thus, a proposed trade-off strategy between two contradictory expections (>50% confidence, <1E-3 error) supports 61% of investigated countries to predict the varying trajectory with confidence beyond 50%. Moreover, PMC model recommend the remanent 39% countries to extend the proportion of populaces in COVID-19 detecting-pool to a suggested-value (>1% of populations), ensuing the average confidence up to 70%.

Measuring meta-ignorance through the lens of confidence: examining students' redox misconceptions about oxidation numbers, charge, and electron transfer

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 729-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra R. Brandriet ◽  
Stacey Lowery Bretz
Keyword(s):  
Electron Transfer ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Individual Item ◽  
High Confidence ◽  
Chemistry Students ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
False Sense ◽  
Average Confidence

This manuscript describes the relationship between students' redox understandings and confidence as measured by the Redox Concept Inventory (ROXCI) which assesses symbolic and particulate redox concepts. The ROXCI was administered to two samples of 1st- and 2nd-semester general chemistry students after the students were taught and tested on redox concepts in their classrooms. Cluster analysis was used to identify groups of students with similar response patterns, based upon both total scores and average confidence on the ROXCI. Three clusters of students were identified in both samples: students with (1) moderate total scores and high confidence, (2) low total scores and low confidence, and (3) low total scores but high confidence. Clusters were further analyzed at an individual item level using average confidence, individual item difficulties, and the Confidence Discrimination Quotient (CDQ). Findings align with the Dunning–Kruger effect,i.e.in which students demonstrated a false sense of confidence regarding their own poor performance, and therefore, exemplify meta-ignorance. Descriptions of the clusters, example misconceptions held by the students regarding oxidation numbers and electron transfer, and the implications of this research are discussed.

scholarly journals A Trajectory Partition Method Based on Combined Movement Features

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Tang ◽  
Linfeng Liu ◽  
Jiagao Wu
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Feature Points ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Movement Trajectories ◽  
Trajectory Data Mining ◽  
Primary Procedure ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Partition Method

Trajectory data mining has become an increasing concern in the location-based applications, and the trajectory partition is taken as the primary procedure of trajectory data mining. The amount of movement trajectories of nodes is typically very large, and the trajectory shapes are extremely diverse, which makes the trajectory partition a vital issue to the trajectory data mining results. In this work, the movement behaviors of nodes are analyzed from the aspects of moving speeds, stop points, and moving directions, and then a novel Trajectory Partition Method based on combined movement Features (TPMF) is proposed to partition the trajectories. In TPMF, we first extract the change points where the movement speeds of nodes are varied significantly; then, we extract the stop points by detecting the speed variations of nodes; finally, the Douglas-Peucker algorithm is applied to partition the subtrajectories according to the extracted feature points (change points and stop points). Simulations are carried out on the Geolife trajectory dataset, and the simulation results indicate that TPMF can achieve a preferable trade-off between the simplification rate and the trajectory partition error, while the running time is shortened as well.

Confidence Can Be Used to Discriminate Between Accurate and Inaccurate Lie Decisions

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1062-1071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Smith ◽  
Amy-May Leach
Keyword(s):  
Signal Detection ◽  
Signal Detection Theory ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Past Research ◽  
High Confidence ◽  
Accuracy Characteristic ◽  
Lower Confidence ◽  
Important Relationship ◽  
Average Confidence ◽  
Accuracy Relationship

There is a long-standing belief that confidence is not useful at discriminating between accurate and inaccurate deception decisions. Historically, this position made sense because people showed little ability to discriminate lie-tellers from truth-tellers. But, it is now widely accepted that, under certain conditions, people can discriminate between lie-tellers and truth-tellers. Nevertheless, belief that confidence does not discriminate between accurate and inaccurate responses persists. This belief is somewhat paradoxical because, to the extent that people can discriminate between lie-tellers and truth-tellers, signal detection theory naturally predicts a positive relationship between confidence and accuracy. In line with our signal-detection-based predictions, we show that, among decisions about whether someone is lying, those made with high confidence are more accurate than those made with low confidence. This important relationship has gone unnoticed in past work because of a reliance on inappropriate measures. Past research examining the confidence–accuracy relationship in deception research relied on correlating average confidence with proportion of correctly identified lies. These correlations provide information on whether more confident judges tend to be more accurate but remain silent on the arguably more important question of whether higher confidence decisions are more accurate than lower confidence decisions. We show that confidence–accuracy characteristic analyses are uniquely suited to measuring the confidence–accuracy relationship in deception research.

scholarly journals Investigating Ecosystem Service Trade-offs/synergies and their Influencing Factors: A Case Study in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng Li ◽  
Jie Zhao ◽  
Wenfu Yang
Keyword(s):  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yangtze River Delta ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Delta Region ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Yangtze River Delta Region ◽  
The Yangtze River Delta

Abstract A comprehensive understanding of the trade-off/synergy relationships that exist among multiple ecosystem services (ESs) has become increasingly important for ecological management and sustainable development. However, the determination of the factors that promote trade-off/synergy relationships and the extent to which the driving factors affect these complex relationships have not been well studied, limiting the effectiveness of sustainable ecosystem management. This study employed the Yangtze River Delta region in China as the study area and investigated the spatiotemporal changes in three ESs, namely, carbon storage (CS), water purification (WP), and habitat quality (HQ), from 2005 to 2015. A trade-off/synergy degree (TSD) indicator was developed that allowed for the quantification of the trade-off/synergy intensity, and the spatial pattern of the TSD between ESs in the YRD region was analyzed. Furthermore, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to analyze the relationship between the driving factors and trade-offs/synergies. The results revealed that CS, WP, and HQ decreased by 1.17%, 2.49%, and 3.38%, respectively. The TSD indicator showed that the trade-off/synergy relationships and their magnitudes were spatially heterogeneous. The coefficients of the natural and socioeconomic factors obtained from the GWR indicated that their impacts on the trade-offs/synergies vary spatiotemporally. The impact factors had both positive and negative effects on the trade-offs/synergies. The values of R2 and AIC implied that the selected factors had significant explanatory power for the trade-off/synergy relationships between paired ESs. The findings could improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of trade-offs/synergies and their spatially heterogeneous correlations with related factors.

scholarly journals Investigating the compounding effects of environmental factors on ecosystem services relationships for the ecological conservation red line areas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liyuan Zuo ◽  
Jiangbo Gao
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Spatial Relationship ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Ecological Conservation ◽  
Red Line

Exploring the driving factors of ecosystem services (ESs) trade-offs/synergies is crucial for ecosystem management, especially in ecological conservation red line (ECRL) areas that maintain regional and national ecological security. Soil conservation (SC), water yield (WY) and carbon sequestration (CS) were simulated in the Beijing ECRL areas. Geographical weighted regression was used to explore the trade-offs/synergies, and the geographical detector was applied to quantitatively identify their driving factors. Results show that (1) the SC and CS show marked synergy which characterized more than 80% of each ECRL area; the proportion of the space area of trade-off and synergy between SC and WY, and WY and CS was roughly 3 to 7 and 4 to 6 in each ECRL area, respectively. (2) The synergy of the three pairs of ESs was most sensitive to terrain factors. The precipitation erodibility of soil and its necessity for vegetation make it a determinant of the trade-off between SC and CS; temperature was the determinant in the trade-off between WY and CS, with an explanatory power of 32.8%; potential evapotranspiration was best able to explain the spatial distribution of the trade-off between SC and WY. (3) The interaction between precipitation and other factors had the greatest explanatory power on the spatial relationship between SC and WY. Precipitation and relief amplitude are the main interactive factors respectively affecting the spatial trade-off and synergy between SC and CS. The trade-off and synergy between WY and CS were most sensitive to the interaction between climate factors and terrain factors.

A Flow-Preserving Algorithm for the Time-Cost Trade-Off Problem

1982 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suleyman Tufekci
Keyword(s):  
Time Cost ◽  
Trade Off

Dual Goals for Speed and Accuracy on the Same Performance Task

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 118-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olive Emil Wetter ◽  
Jürgen Wegge ◽  
Klaus Jonas ◽  
Klaus-Helmut Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Memory Scanning ◽  
Performance Task ◽  
Performance Tasks ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Test Experiment ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
New Finding ◽  
Sternberg Paradigm ◽  
Speed Accuracy ◽  
Speed And Accuracy

In most work contexts, several performance goals coexist, and conflicts between them and trade-offs can occur. Our paper is the first to contrast a dual goal for speed and accuracy with a single goal for speed on the same task. The Sternberg paradigm (Experiment 1, n = 57) and the d2 test (Experiment 2, n = 19) were used as performance tasks. Speed measures and errors revealed in both experiments that dual as well as single goals increase performance by enhancing memory scanning. However, the single speed goal triggered a speed-accuracy trade-off, favoring speed over accuracy, whereas this was not the case with the dual goal. In difficult trials, dual goals slowed down scanning processes again so that errors could be prevented. This new finding is particularly relevant for security domains, where both aspects have to be managed simultaneously.

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