To Isolate or Not To Isolate: The Impact of Changing Behavior on COVID-19 Transmission

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 25 million cases and 800 thousand deaths worldwide to date. Neither vaccines nor therapeutic drugs are currently available for this novel coronavirus. All measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 are thus based on reducing contact between infected and susceptible individuals. Most of these measures such as quarantine and self-isolation require voluntary compliance by the population. However, humans may act in their (perceived) self-interest only. We construct a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with quarantine and hospitalization coupled with a dynamic game model of adaptive human behavior. Susceptible and infected individuals adopt various behavioral strategies based on perceived prevalence and burden of the disease and sensitivity to isolation measures, and they evolve their strategies using a social learning algorithm (imitation dynamics). This results in complex interplay between the epidemiological model, which affects success of different strategies, and the game-theoretic behavioral model, which in turn affects the spread of the disease. We found that the second wave of the pandemic, which has been observed in the US, can be attributed to rational behavior of susceptible individuals, and that multiple waves of the pandemic are possible if the rate of social learning of infected individuals is sufficiently high. To reduce the burden of the disease on the society, it is necessary to incentivize such altruistic behavior by infected individuals as voluntary self-isolation.

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To isolate or not to isolate: The impact of changing behavior on COVID-19 transmission

10.1101/2020.08.30.20184804 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Folashade B. Agusto ◽

Igor V. Erovenko ◽

Alexander Fulk ◽

Qays Abu-Saymeh ◽

Daniel Daniel Romero-Alvarez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Social Learning ◽

Learning Algorithm ◽

Dynamic Game ◽

Behavioral Model ◽

Altruistic Behavior ◽

Behavioral Strategies ◽

Game Theoretic ◽

Dynamic Game Model ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 25 million cases and 800 thousand deaths worldwide to date. Neither vaccines nor therapeutic drugs are currently available for this novel coronavirus. All measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 are thus based on reducing contact between infected and susceptible individuals. Most of these measures such as quarantine and self-isolation require voluntary compliance by the population. However, humans may act in their (perceived) self-interest only. We construct a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with quarantine and hospitalization coupled with a dynamic game model of adaptive human behavior. Susceptible and infected individuals adopt various behavioral strategies based on perceived prevalence and burden of the disease and sensitivity to isolation measures, and they evolve their strategies using a social learning algorithm (imitation dynamics). This results in complex interplay between the epidemiological model, which affects success of different strategies, and the game-theoretic behavioral model, which in turn affects the spread of the disease. We found that the second wave of the pandemic, which has been observed in the US, can be attributed to rational behavior of susceptible individuals, and that multiple waves of the pandemic are possible if the rate of social learning of infected individuals is sufficiently high. To reduce the burden of the disease on the society, it is necessary to incentivize such altruistic behavior by infected individuals as voluntary self-isolation.

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A game theoretic analysis of resource mining in blockchain

Cluster Computing ◽

10.1007/s10586-020-03046-w ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 23 (3) ◽

pp. 2035-2046 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rajani Singh ◽

Ashutosh Dhar Dwivedi ◽

Gautam Srivastava ◽

Agnieszka Wiszniewska-Matyszkiel ◽

Xiaochun Cheng

Keyword(s):

Nash Equilibrium ◽

Dynamic Game ◽

Social Optimum ◽

Theoretic Model ◽

Mining System ◽

Game Theoretic Analysis ◽

Digital World ◽

Game Theoretic ◽

Game Theoretic Model ◽

Dynamic Game Model

Abstract Blockchain and cryptocurrency are a hot topic in today’s digital world. In this paper, we create a game theoretic model in continuous time. We consider a dynamic game model of the bitcoin market, where miners or players use mining systems to mine bitcoin by investing electricity into the mining system. Although this work is motivated by BTC, the work presented can be applicable to other mining systems similar to BTC. We propose three concepts of dynamic game theoretic solutions to the model: Social optimum, Nash equilibrium and myopic Nash equilibrium. Using the model that a player represents a single “miner” or a “mining pool”, we develop novel and interesting results for the cryptocurrency world.

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Green Remanufacturer’s Mixed Collection Channel Strategy Considering Enterprise’s Environmental Responsibility and the Fairness Concern in Reverse Green Supply Chain

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18073405 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (7) ◽

pp. 3405

Author(s):

Xigang Yuan ◽

Fei Tang ◽

Dalin Zhang ◽

Xiaoqing Zhang

Keyword(s):

Supply Chain ◽

Dynamic Game ◽

Green Supply Chain ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Environmental Responsibility ◽

Channel Strategy ◽

Dynamic Game Model ◽

Fairness Concern ◽

The Impact ◽

Mixed Collection

In reverse green supply chain, the mixed collection channel strategy of green remanufacturer is analyzed by building a dynamic game model in which we consider that the green remanufacturer undertakes the environmental responsibility and the green collector shows strong fairness concern for the profit. We analyze the impact of the environmental responsibility level of the green remanufacturer, the preference coefficient of the green remanufacturer, the fairness concern coefficient of the green collector, and the coefficient of cross collection price on optimal decision and profit of the green remanufacturer. The result shows that (1) the green remanufacturer can further improve the collection price, so that it makes many more customers participate in the collection activity; (2) the green remanufacturer pays more attention to fulfill the environmental responsibility, which will increase the intensity of collection of the waste green product, and improve the collection price, as the old green product’s remanufacturing cost is lower than the production cost of the new product, and it can improve the green remanufacturer’s profits; (3) the green remanufacturer’s profit in the mixed collection channel is higher than those in online or offline collection channels.

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A Distributed E-Cross Learning Algorithm for Intelligent Multiple Network Slice Selection

Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing ◽

10.1155/2021/8875515 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-14

Author(s):

Guomin Wu ◽

Guoping Tan ◽

Defu Jiang

Keyword(s):

User Experience ◽

Learning Algorithm ◽

Dynamic Game ◽

Research Field ◽

Distributed Network ◽

Intelligent Algorithm ◽

Network Slicing ◽

Two Factors ◽

Multiple Network ◽

Dynamic Game Model

Recently, some technological issues in network slicing have been explored. However, most works focus on the physical resource management in this research field and less on slice selection. Different from the existing studies, we explore the problem of intelligent multiple slice selection, which makes some effort to dynamically obtain better user experience in a changeable state. Herein, we consider two factors about user experience: its throughput and energy consumption. Accordingly, a distributed E-cross learning algorithm is developed in the multiagent system where each terminal is regarded as an agent in the distributed network. Furthermore, its convergence is theoretically proven for the dynamic game model. In addition, the complexity of the proposed algorithm is discussed. A mass of simulation results are presented for the convergence and effectiveness of the proposed distributed learning algorithm. Compared with greedy algorithm, the proposed intelligent algorithm has a faster convergence speed. Besides, better user experience is attained effectively with multiple slice access.

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IMPACTO DOS REGIMES DE MANEJO FLORESTAL SOBRE USO E CONSERVAÇÃO DOS RECURSOS FLORESTAIS E RENDIMENTOS DOS INTERVENIENTES EM SAVANE, MOÇAMBIQUE

FLORESTA ◽

10.5380/rf.v41i4.25350 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 41 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Mário Paulo Falcão ◽

Dartagnan Baggio Emerenciano

Keyword(s):

Game Theory ◽

Forest Management ◽

Open Access ◽

Dynamic Game ◽

Well Being ◽

Theoretic Model ◽

Miombo Woodlands ◽

Management Regimes ◽

Game Theoretic ◽

The Impact

As altas taxas de desmatamento em Moçambique, estimadas em 0,24% ao ano, associadas à degradação da terra trouxeram mudanças institucionais na procura de políticas e estratégias para manejar os recursos florestais. Regimes de manejo florestal e políticas que satisfaçam as necessidades dos vários intervenientes e garantam o uso sustentável dos recursos florestais são um complexo para ser analisado. Este estudo de caso realizado no distrito do Dondo, localidade de Savane, analisa o impacto das várias alternativas de regime de manejo florestal sobre os rendimentos dos usuários e a conservação da floresta de miombo. Modelos dinâmicos de sistemas baseados na teoria de jogos foram desenvolvidos e implementados com base no software POWERSIM. Os resultados mostram que regimes de manejo de comando (centralizados), incorporando aspectos sociais ou sociais e ambientais são potencialmente mais benéficos para o setor familiar que o regime de licença simples ou não cooperativo. O regime de licença é a opção mais benéfica de manejo florestal para o setor privado.Palavras-chave: Teoria de jogos; modelo dinâmico sistemático. AbstractImpact of forest management regimes of forest resource use, conservation and income of stakeholders in Savane, Mozambique. Higher deforestation rates in Mozambique, estimated as 0.24% per annum, associated with land degradation brought institutional changes in the search for adequate policies and strategies for the management of its natural resources. Forest management regimes and policies that satisfies the needs of several stakeholders and guarantee sustainable use of forest resources, is a complex to be analysed. A case study was carried out in Dondo district, Savane locality, to analyse the impact of alternative forest management regimes on the well being of stakeholders and conservation of the miombo woodlands. Dynamic game theoretic models based o game theory were developed and implemented with software POWERSIM. This study shows that regulated forest management regimes, incorporating social concerns or social and environmental concerns, are potentially more beneficial to the household sector that the open access regime. The open access is more beneficial regime to the private sector.Keywords: Forest management regimes; game theory; stakeholders; dynamic game theoretic model.

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A Game Theoretic Analysis of Cryptocurrency Market for Sustainable Development of Smart Cities

10.21203/rs.3.rs-645368/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rajani Singh ◽

Ashutosh Dhar Dwivedi ◽

Agnieszka Wiszniewska-Matyszkiel

Keyword(s):

Nash Equilibrium ◽

Market Share ◽

Smart Cities ◽

Dynamic Game ◽

Stackelberg Equilibrium ◽

Game Model ◽

Advertising Effort ◽

Game Theoretic ◽

Finite Time Horizon ◽

Dynamic Game Model

Abstract Cryptocurrency was first began to use in 2009 and features technology such as blockchain that is used in the development of smart cities. Game theory play an important role when designing secure economic system such as Bitcoin. In this paper, we study a dynamic game model of brand advertising in continuous time with the finite time horizon. The total payoff or profit of players or firms is discounted over time and the rate at which the firms attract the customers from its rival, called attraction rate, is taken from the economic theory of contest. As a novelty of our game model, the attraction rate of a firm depends on both: player’s or firm’s advertising effort and the advertising effort of players or firm’s rivalry. We solve the game for Stackelberg equilibrium (with the leader and follower differing by information and/or the sequence of choosing strategies) as well as for Nash equilibrium. Further, we graphically compare the results obtained for the Stackelberg and the Nash equilibrium. Surprisingly, we have obtained that if the revenue per unit of market share is equal for Nash and Stackelberg equilibrium then the results for Nash player 1 overlaps with the leader and the results for Nash player 2 overlaps with follower. Finally, we present the application of our dynamic game model in the cryptocurrency market where two firms compete with each other for the cryptocurrency market share.

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Association and treatment of diabetes in patients affected by Covid-19

International Journal of Research in Pharmaceutical Sciences ◽

10.26452/ijrps.v11ispl1.3591 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽

pp. 1198-1201

Author(s):

Syed Yasir Afaque

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Prognostic Value ◽

Heart Diseases ◽

The Novel ◽

The World ◽

Treatment Of Diabetes ◽

Coronavirus Infection ◽

Composite Outcomes ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact

In December 2019, a unique coronavirus infection, SARS-CoV-2, was first identified in the province of Wuhan in China. Since then, it spread rapidly all over the world and has been responsible for a large number of morbidity and mortality among humans. According to a latest study, Diabetes mellitus, heart diseases, Hypertension etc. are being considered important risk factors for the development of this infection and is also associated with unfavorable outcomes in these patients. There is little evidence concerning the trail back of these patients possibly because of a small number of participants and people who experienced primary composite outcomes (such as admission in the ICU, usage of machine-driven ventilation or even fatality of these patients). Until now, there are no academic findings that have proven independent prognostic value of diabetes on death in the novel Coronavirus patients. However, there are several conjectures linking Diabetes with the impact as well as progression of COVID-19 in these patients. The aim of this review is to acknowledge about the association amongst Diabetes and the novel Coronavirus and the result of the infection in such patients.

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Novel Coronavirus 2019 Outbreak: A Global Epidemic

Letters in Drug Design & Discovery ◽

10.2174/1570180817999200802033916 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (12) ◽

pp. 1458-1464

Author(s):

Sweta Kamboj ◽

Rohit Kamboj ◽

Shikha Kamboj ◽

Kumar Guarve ◽

Rohit Dutt

Keyword(s):

World Health ◽

Upper Respiratory Tract ◽

Global Epidemic ◽

The Public ◽

The Government ◽

Tract Disease ◽

The 1960S ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization ◽

The Impact

Background: In the 1960s, the human coronavirus was designated, which is responsible for the upper respiratory tract disease in children. Back in 2003, mainly 5 new coronaviruses were recognized. This study directly pursues to govern knowledge, attitude and practice of viral and droplet infection isolation safeguard among the researchers during the outbreak of the COVID-19. Introduction: Coronavirus is a proteinaceous and infectious pathogen. It is an etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronavirus, appeared in China from the seafood and poultry market last year, which has spread in various countries, and has caused several deaths. Methods: The literature data has been taken from different search platforms like PubMed, Science Direct, Embase, Web of Science, who.int portal and complied. Results: Corona virology study will be more advanced and outstanding in recent years. COVID-19 epidemic is a threatening reminder not solely for one country but all over the universe. Conclusion: In this review article, we encapsulated the pathogenesis, geographical spread of coronavirus worldwide, also discussed the perspective of diagnosis, effective treatment, and primary recommendations by the World Health Organization, and guidelines of the government to slow down the impact of the virus are also optimistic, efficacious and obliging for the public health. However, it will take a prolonged time in the future to overcome this epidemic.

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Impact of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Pregnant Women: A Review

Coronaviruses ◽

10.2174/2666796701999201116123457 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 01 ◽

Author(s):

Saima Habeeb ◽

Manju Chugani

Keyword(s):

Pregnant Women ◽

Vertical Transmission ◽

Respiratory Infections ◽

Age Groups ◽

Well Being ◽

Fetal Outcome ◽

Global Public Health ◽

Coronavirus Infection ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact

: The novel coronavirus infection (COVID‐19) is a global public health emergency.Since its outbreak in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the infection has spread at an alarming rate across the globe and humans have been locked down to their countries, cities and homes. As of now, the virus has affected over 20million people globally and has inflicted over 7 lac deaths. Nevertheless, the recovery rate is improving with each passing day and over 14 million people have recuperated so far. The statistics indicate that nobody is immune to the disease as the virus continues to spread among all age groups; newborns to the elders, and all compartmentsincluding pregnant women. However, pregnant women may be more susceptible to this infection as they are, in general, highly vulnerable to respiratory infections. There is no evidence for vertical transmission of the COVID-19 virus among pregnant women, but an increased prevalence of preterm deliveries. Besides this, the COVID-19 may alter immune response at the maternal-fetal interface and affect the well-being of mothers as well as infants. Unfortunately, there is limited evidence available in the open literature regarding coronavirus infection during pregnancy and it now appears that certain pregnant women have infected during the present 2019-nCoV pandemic. In this short communication, we study the impact of the COVID-19 infection on vertical transmission and fetal outcome among pregnant women.

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Neurological symptoms, manifestations, and complications associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19)

Journal of Neurology ◽

10.1007/s00415-021-10406-y ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Biyan Nathanael Harapan ◽

Hyeon Joo Yoo

Keyword(s):

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽

Case Reports ◽

Case Series ◽

Altered Mental Status ◽

Neurological Complications ◽

Neurological Symptoms ◽

Neurological Manifestations ◽

Fisher Syndrome ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact

AbstractSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus, is responsible for the outbreak of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) and was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. It is evident that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a challenging world issue. Although most COVID-19 patients primarily develop respiratory symptoms, an increasing number of neurological symptoms and manifestations associated with COVID-19 have been observed. In this narrative review, we elaborate on proposed neurotropic mechanisms and various neurological symptoms, manifestations, and complications of COVID-19 reported in the present literature. For this purpose, a review of all current published literature (studies, case reports, case series, reviews, editorials, and other articles) was conducted and neurological sequelae of COVID-19 were summarized. Essential and common neurological symptoms including gustatory and olfactory dysfunctions, myalgia, headache, altered mental status, confusion, delirium, and dizziness are presented separately in sections. Moreover, neurological manifestations and complications that are of great concern such as stroke, cerebral (sinus) venous thrombosis, seizures, meningoencephalitis, Guillain–Barré syndrome, Miller Fisher syndrome, acute myelitis, and posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) are also addressed systematically. Future studies that examine the impact of neurological symptoms and manifestations on the course of the disease are needed to further clarify and assess the link between neurological complications and the clinical outcome of patients with COVID-19. To limit long-term consequences, it is crucial that healthcare professionals can early detect possible neurological symptoms and are well versed in the increasingly common neurological manifestations and complications of COVID-19.

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