scholarly journals The Cyclical Sine Model Explanation for Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale Erwin Nierode
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Temperature Cycle ◽  
Natural Occurrence ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Model Explanation

Abstract This paper will show that the global warming/climate change underway on Earth today is a totally natural occurrence with solid scientific and historical support. The Earth is currently in the upswing part of its normal temperature cycle. Very warm (Medieval Warming) and very cold (Little Ice Age) cycles have been historically documented on Earth for at least the last 3,000 years. This cyclicity has a repeated period of approximately every 1,500 years [1]. The explanation for the Earth’s temperature increases since 1850 is captured in a mathematical model called the Cyclical Sine Model. This model fits past climate cycles, measured temperatures since 1850, and correlates closely with the thousand year cyclicity of solar activity from 14C/12C ratio studies [2], and Bond [3] Atlantic drift ice cycles. This model also agrees with sunspot history, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In addition, this model quantitively explains the time span 1945-1975 when an impending ice age was feared [4]. Earth temperatures are controlled by three solar cycles of approximately 1,000, 70, and 11 years. The Cyclical Sine Model is the best explanation for the Earth’s recent temperature increases.

scholarly journals The Cyclical Sine Model Explanation for Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale Erwin Nierode
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Temperature Cycle ◽  
Natural Occurrence ◽  
Greenhouse Gasses ◽  
Hydrocarbon Combustion ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract Climate Change due to excessive buildup of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere from hydrocarbon combustion is one explanation (NASA greenhouse effect) for the Earth’s temperature increase since 1850. If this is true, then eliminating fossil fuel use is the only way to preserve our planet. However, there is another explanation for Global Warming/Climate Change that leads to the opposite conclusion – hydrocarbon energy will be needed well into the future to cope with future, excessively hot and cold temperature cycles. This paper will show that the Global Warming/Climate Change underway on Earth today is a totally natural occurrence with solid scientific and historical support. The Earth is currently in the upswing part of its normal temperature cycle. Very warm (Medieval Warming) and very cold (Little Ice Age) cycles have been historically documented on Earth for at least the last 3,000 years. This cyclicity has a repeated period of about every 1,500 years (Singer 2008). This explanation for the Earth’s temperature increases since 1850 is captured in a mathematical model called the Cyclical Sine Model. This model fits past climate cycles, measured temperatures since 1850, and correlates closely with the cyclicity of Bond Atlantic Drift Ice Cycles (Bond 1997), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (NASA AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (NASA PDO). This model also quantitively explains the time span 1945-1975 when an impending ice age was feared (Time Magazine 1974). The Cyclical Sine Model is the best explanation for the Earth’s recent temperature increases.

scholarly journals Guest Editorial: Climate Displacement in the Pacific – Special Forum

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Bridget Lewis ◽  
Rowena Maguire ◽  
MD Saiful Karim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Guest Editorial ◽  
Hard Work ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Migration Pathways

<em>This issue of the QUT Law Review features a collection of papers on the topic of climate displacement in the Pacific. The collection arose out of a symposium held at QUT in May 2014 and co-hosted by the Faculty of Law and Friends of the Earth. The focus of the symposium was on the potential of pre-emptive migration pathways to address the challenges of climate change-related displacement in the Asia-Pacific region. The guest editors wish to thank Wendy Flannery of Friends of the Earth (Brisbane) for her hard work in organising the symposium and her ongoing commitment to this serious issue.</em>

scholarly journals A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 767-779 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
W. J. J. van Pelt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mass Budget ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Model Study

Abstract. The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produce the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulate the observed magnitude of the 1978 surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions remain as they were for the period 1989–2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years). For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m year−1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and thereby to increase the ablation area, causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a faster retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude. If the equilibrium line were lowered by only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into Woodfjorddalen until, after 2000 years, it would reach Woodfjord and calving would slow down the advance. The bed topography of Abrahamsenbreen is not known and was therefore inferred from the slope and length of the glacier. The value of the plasticity parameter needed to do this was varied by +20 and −20%. After recalibration the same climate change experiments were performed, showing that a thinner glacier (higher bedrock in this case) in a warming climate retreats somewhat faster.

scholarly journals Assessment of Hydrological Parameters of the Watershed using ArcSWAT

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 599-602
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Western India ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Hydrological Parameters ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Temperature Rate

Climate change is an inevitable phenomenon that has lead the earth to evolve from an ice age to present era. Due to rise in temperature, rate of Evapotranspiration is increasing that leads to higher rate of maximum event. This raises the need to analyse the watersheds which shows considerable vulnerability towards climate change. SWAT model is chosen to simulate the analysis which is a semi-distributed hydrological model. The model run has been carried out for 35 years where model outputs are compared with the observed values of Evapotranspiration. Model is successfully validated for five years giving NSE as 0.89. Calibrated & Validated model shows that average values of Evapotranspiration & Surface Runoff in mm against 882mm of rainfall are 303mm & 285mm respectively. A Hathmati watershed of western India is taken to demonstrate the work

The response of Østre Svartisen Icefield, Norway, to 20th/21st century climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare M. Boston ◽  
Harold Lovell ◽  
Paul Weber ◽  
Benjamin M. P. Chandler ◽  
Timothy T. Barrows ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
The North ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Glacier Dynamics

&lt;p&gt;Recently deglaciated forelands contain a wealth of geomorphological and sedimentological data that can provide key information about glacier-climate relationships. Mountain glaciers are particularly important indicators of climate change due to their short response times, which means that their forelands provide a sub-decadal record of changes in glacier size and climate-related dynamics. In this contribution, we examine the glacial geomorphological and sedimentological record at &amp;#216;stre Svartisen, an Arctic plateau icefield in Norway, and discuss temporal variations in glacier dynamics and processes of sediment deposition in response to climate warming since the Little Ice Age (c.1750). We focus specifically on the northeastern sector of the icefield and include two separate cirque/valley glaciers immediately to the north. Differences in landform-sediment assemblages are apparent both within and between forelands relating to changes in topography as well as glacier dynamics. Satellite images and old aerial photographs are also used to investigate differences in the rates of glacier demise across the study area. This evidence enables links to be made between landform generation, bed morphology, glacier dynamics, and glacier response to climate change, which furthers understanding of plateau icefield and outlet glacier behaviour in a warming climate.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Are GRACE-era Terrestrial Water Trends Driven by Anthropogenic Climate Change?

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. T. Fasullo ◽  
D. M. Lawrence ◽  
S. C. Swenson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Anomalous Nature

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. The findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.

scholarly journals Pacific multidecadal (50–70 year) variability instigated by volcanic forcing during the Little Ice Age (1250–1850)

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiyi Sun ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
Chaochao Gao
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Decadal Climate

AbstractThe Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is the leading mode of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific. However, it remains unknown to what extent external forcings can influence the PDO’s periodicity and magnitude over the past 2000 years. We show that the paleo-assimilation products (LMR) and proxy data suggest a 20–40 year PDO occurred during both the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ~ 750–1150) and Little Ice Age (LIA, ~ 1250–1850) while a salient 50–70 year variance peak emerged during the LIA. These results are reproduced well by the CESM simulations in the all-forcing (AF) and single volcanic forcing (Vol) experiments. We show that the 20–40 year PDO is an intrinsic mode caused by internal variability but the 50–70 year PDO during the LIA is a forced mode primarily shaped by volcanic forcing. The intrinsic mode develops in tandem with tropical ENSO-like anomalies, while the forced mode develops from the western Pacific and unrelated to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. The volcanism-induced land–sea thermal contrast may trigger anomalous northerlies over the western North Pacific (WNP), leading to reduced northward heat transport and the cooling in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE), generating the forced mode. A 50–70 year Atlantic multidecadal oscillation founded during the LIA under volcanic forcing may also contribute to the forced mode. These findings shed light on the interplay between the internal variability and external forcing and the present and future changes of the PDO.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

LITTLE ICE AGE IN THE EARTH HISTORY AND ITS POSSIBLE REASONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-12
Author(s):  
Valeriy Fedorov ◽  
Denis Frolov
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Earth History ◽  
The Earth

Religion in the Age of the Anthropocene

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arianne F. Conty
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Risks And Benefits ◽  
Human Exceptionalism ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Contemporary Christian ◽  
Genesis 1 ◽  
Forms Of Life

Though responses to the Anthropocene have largely come from the natural and social sciences, religious responses to the Anthropocene have also been gaining momentum and many scholars have been calling for a religious response to complement scientific responses to climate change. Yet because Genesis 1:28 does indeed tell human beings to ‘subdue the earth’ monotheistic religions have often been understood as complicit in the human exceptionalism that is thought to have created the conditions for the Anthropocene. In distinction to such Biblical traditions, indigenous animistic cultures have typically respected all forms of life as ‘persons’ and such traditions have thus become a source of inspiration for ecological movements. After discussing contemporary Christian efforts to integrate the natural sciences and the environment into their responses to the Anthropocene, this article will turn to animism and seek to evaluate the risks and benefits that could ensue from a postmodern form of animism that could provide a necessary postsecular response to the Anthropocene.

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