scholarly journals Synoptic Climatology of Weather Parameters Associated With Tropical Cyclone Events In The Coastal Areas of Bay of Bengal

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehnaz Abbasi Badhan ◽  
Murad Ahmed Farukh ◽  
Md. Al- Mussabbir Hossen ◽  
Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul I
Keyword(s):  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Synoptic Climatology ◽  
Negative Anomaly ◽  
Weather Parameters

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most devastating weather phenomena that trigger massive loss of property and life in the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Scientific understanding of TCs occurrence can aid policy-makers and residents in coastal areas to take necessary actions and appropriate planning in advance. In this study, we aimed to examine the possible linkage of weather parameters with deadly 22 TCs events in the BoB from 1975 to 2014 using principal component analysis, K-mean clustering and General circulation model (GCMs). Results showed that among 22 TCs, cluster 1 belongs to 12 TCs which occurred under the same atmospheric situation when the sea level pressure (SLP) was below 990hPa, and the temperature ranged from 300C to 390C. A deep negative anomaly of SLP and temperature was observed up to 500hPa levels. In contrast, a negative depression was found at 300hPa geopotential height (GPH) over the study area. Cluster 2 consisted of 9 TCs when SLP was below 1000hPa, and the average temperature was 33.50C. A strong negative anomaly was noticed when surface level up to 500 hPa GPH, but dramatically this depression was completely absent at 300hPa geopotential height over the BoB and entire coastal region. Cluster 3 contained only 1 TCs when the atmospheric circumstance was completely diverse, and the SLP was above 1000hPa. The results of the GCM model revealed that the SLP was lower, and the temperature was higher over BoB compared to the North Indian Ocean. We identified the larger depression of SLP and unpredictable temperature anomalies at the upper atmosphere that can trigger an enormous unpredictability throughout the atmospheric level, leading to severe TCs. The outcomes of this study can improve our understanding of weather variables in the upper atmospheric column for forecasting the TCs system more accurately in the future.

Pemanfaatan CFSRv2 untuk Statistical Downscaling menggunakan Principal Component Regression dan Partial Least Square

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khairunnisa Khairunnisa ◽  
Rizka Pitri ◽  
Victor P Butar-Butar ◽  
Agus M Soleh
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Principal Component Regression ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Grid Size ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Output Data

This research used CFSRv2 data as output data general circulation model. CFSRv2 involves some variables data with high correlation, so in this research is using principal component regression (PCR) and partial least square (PLS) to solve the multicollinearity occurring in CFSRv2 data. This research aims to determine the best model between PCR and PLS to estimate rainfall at Bandung geophysical station, Bogor climatology station, Citeko meteorological station, and Jatiwangi meteorological station by comparing RMSEP value and correlation value. Size used was 3×3, 4×4, 5×5, 6×6, 7×7, 8×8, 9×9, and 11×11 that was located between (-40) N - (-90) S and 1050 E -1100 E with a grid size of 0.5×0.5 The PLS model was the best model used in stastistical downscaling in this research than PCR model because of the PLS model obtained the lower RMSEP value and the higher correlation value. The best domain and RMSEP value for Bandung geophysical station, Bogor climatology station, Citeko meteorological station, and Jatiwangi meteorological station is 9 × 9 with 100.06, 6 × 6 with 194.3, 8 × 8 with 117.6, and 6 × 6 with 108.2, respectively.

scholarly journals Interannual Variations of Wind Regimes off the Subtropical Western Australia Coast during Austral Winter and Spring

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (16) ◽  
pp. 5587-5599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Weller ◽  
Ming Feng ◽  
Harry Hendon ◽  
Jian Ma ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Austral Winter ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Australian Continent

Abstract Off the Western Australia coast, interannual variations of wind regime during the austral winter and spring are significantly correlated with the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and the southern annular mode (SAM) variability. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by an idealized IOD sea surface temperature anomaly field suggest that the IOD-generated deep atmospheric convection anomalies trigger a Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere that propagates into the southern extratropics and induces positive geopotential height anomalies over southern Australia, independent of the SAM. The positive geopotential height anomalies extended from the upper troposphere to the surface, south of the Australian continent, resulting in easterly wind anomalies off the Western Australia coast and a reduction of the high-frequency synoptic storm events that deliver the majority of southwest Australia rainfall during austral winter and spring. In the marine environment, the wind anomalies and reduction of storm events may hamper the western rock lobster recruitment process.

Tropical Connections to Climatic Change in the Extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The Role of Atlantic SST Trends

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 4923-4936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham R. Simpkins ◽  
Shayne McGregor ◽  
Andréa S. Taschetto ◽  
Laura M. Ciasto ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
The Impact

The austral spring relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) trends and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation are investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). A suite of simulations are analyzed wherein the AGCM is forced by underlying SST conditions in which recent trends are constrained to individual ocean basins (Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic), allowing the impact of each region to be assessed in isolation. When forced with observed global SST, the model broadly replicates the spatial pattern of extratropical SH geopotential height trends seen in reanalyses. However, when forcing by each ocean basin separately, similar structures arise only when Atlantic SST trends are included. It is further shown that teleconnections from the Atlantic are associated with perturbations to the zonal Walker circulation and the corresponding intensification of the local Hadley cell, the impact of which results in the development of atmospheric Rossby waves. Thus, increased Rossby waves, forced by positive Atlantic SST trends, may have played a role in driving geopotential height trends in the SH extratropics. Furthermore, these atmospheric circulation changes promote warming throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and much of West Antarctica, with a pattern that closely matches recent observational records. This suggests that Atlantic SST trends, via a teleconnection to the SH extratropics, may have contributed to springtime climatic change in the SH extratropics over the past three decades.

scholarly journals First outcomes from the CNR-ISAC monthly forecasting system

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Mastrangelo ◽  
P. Malguzzi ◽  
C. Rendina ◽  
O. Drofa ◽  
A. Buzzi
Keyword(s):  
Geopotential Height ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
National Council ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Standard Pressure ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. A monthly probabilistic forecasting system is experimentally operated at the ISAC institute of the National Council of Research of Italy. The forecasting system is based on GLOBO, an atmospheric general circulation model developed at the same institute. The model is presently run on a monthly basis to produce an ensemble of 32 forecasts initialized with GFS-NCEP perturbed analyses. Reforecasts, initialized with ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses of the 1989–2009 period, are also produced to determine modelled climatology of the month to forecast. The modelled monthly climatology is then used to calibrate the ensemble forecast of daily precipitation, geopotential height and temperature on standard pressure levels. In this work, we present the forecasting system and a preliminary evaluation of the model systematic and forecast errors in terms of non-probabilistic scores of the 500-hPa geopotential height. Results show that the proposed forecasting system outperforms the climatology in the first two weeks of integrations. The adopted calibration based on weighted bias correction is found to reduce the systematic and the forecast errors.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variation of total electron content as revealed by principal component analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (12) ◽  
pp. 1109-1117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elsayed R. Talaat ◽  
Xun Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Total Electron Content ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
Total Variance ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron

Abstract. Eleven years of global total electron content (TEC) data derived from the assimilated thermosphere–ionosphere electrodynamics general circulation model are analyzed using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and the corresponding principal component analysis (PCA) technique. For the daily averaged TEC field, the first EOF explains more than 89 % and the first four EOFs explain more than 98 % of the total variance of the TEC field, indicating an effective data compression and clear separation of different physical processes. The effectiveness of the PCA technique for TEC is nearly insensitive to the horizontal resolution and the length of the data records. When the PCA is applied to global TEC including local-time variations, the rich spatial and temporal variations of field can be represented by the first three EOFs that explain 88 % of the total variance. The spectral analysis of the time series of the EOF coefficients reveals how different mechanisms such as solar flux variation, change in the orbital declination, nonlinear mode coupling and geomagnetic activity are separated and expressed in different EOFs. This work demonstrates the usefulness of using the PCA technique to assimilate and monitor the global TEC field.

scholarly journals Examination of aerosol distributions and radiative effects over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea region during ICARB using satellite data and a general circulation model

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1287-1305 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Cherian ◽  
C. Venkataraman ◽  
S. Ramachandran ◽  
J. Quaas ◽  
S. Kedia
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Aerosol Index

Abstract. In this paper we analyse aerosol loading and its direct radiative effects over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) regions for the Integrated Campaign on Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB) undertaken during 2006, using satellite data from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, the Aerosol Index from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite, and the European-Community Hamburg (ECHAM5.5) general circulation model extended by Hamburg Aerosol Module (HAM). By statistically comparing with large-scale satellite data sets, we firstly show that the aerosol properties measured during the ship-based ICARB campaign and simulated by the model are representative for the BoB and AS regions and the pre-monsoon season. In a second step, the modelled aerosol distributions were evaluated by a comparison with the measurements from the ship-based sunphotometer, and the satellite retrievals during ICARB. It is found that the model broadly reproduces the observed spatial and temporal variability in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over BoB and AS regions. However, AOD was systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the BoB leg. We show that this underprediction of AOD is mostly because of the deficiencies in the coarse mode, where the model shows that dust is the dominant component. The analysis of dust AOD along with the OMI Aerosol Index indicate that missing dust transport that results from too low dust emission fluxes over the Thar Desert region in the model caused this deficiency. Thirdly, we analysed the spatio-temporal variability of AOD comparing the ship-based observations to the large-scale satellite observations and simulations. It was found that most of the variability along the track was from geographical patterns, with a minor influence by single events. Aerosol fields were homogeneous enough to yield a good statistical agreement between satellite data at a 1° spatial, but only twice-daily temporal resolution, and the ship-based sunphotometer data at a much finer spatial, but daily-average temporal resolution. Examination of the satellite data further showed that the year 2006 is representative for the five-year period for which satellite data were available. Finally, we estimated the clear-sky solar direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF). We found that the cruise represents well the regional-seasonal mean forcings. Constraining simulated forcings using the observed AOD distributions yields a robust estimate of regional-seasonal mean DARF of −8.6, −21.4 and +12.9 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface (SUR) and in the atmosphere (ATM), respectively, for the BoB region, and over the AS, of, −6.8, −12.8, and +6 W m−2 at TOA, SUR, and ATM, respectively.

scholarly journals Identification of dominant sources of sea level pressure for precipitation forecasting over Wales

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1002-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azadeh Ahmadi ◽  
Dawei Han
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Forward Selection ◽  
Precipitation Forecasting ◽  
Variable Combination

Downscaling methods are utilized to assess the effects of large scale atmospheric circulation on local hydrological variables such as precipitation and runoff. In this paper, a methodology of statistical downscaling using a support vector machine (SVM) approach is presented to simulate and predict the precipitation using general circulation model (GCM) data. Due to the complexity and issues related to finding a relationship between the large scale climatic parameters and local precipitation, the climate variables (predictors) affecting monthly precipitation variations over Wales are identified using a combination of the methods including the principal component analysis (PCA), fuzzy clustering, backward selection, forward selection, and Gamma test (GT). The effectiveness of those tools is illustrated through their implementations in the case study. It has been found that although the GT itself fails to identify the best input variable combination, it provides useful and narrowed-down options for further exploration. The best input variable combination is achieved by the GT and forward selection method. This approach can be a useful way for assessing the impacts of climate variables on precipitation forecasting.

scholarly journals Forced Atmospheric Teleconnections during 1979–2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 2333-2357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Zhang ◽  
Martin P. Hoerling ◽  
Judith Perlwitz ◽  
Taiyi Xu
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnections

Abstract Forced atmospheric teleconnections during 1979–2014 are examined using a 50-member ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations subjected to observed variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice, and carbon dioxide. Three primary modes of forced variability are identified using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the ensemble mean wintertime extratropical Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa heights. The principal component time series of the first and second modes are highly correlated with Niño-3.4 and trans-Niño (TNI) SST indices, respectively, indicating mostly tropical sources. Their impacts are largely confined to the Pacific–North American (PNA) sector. The leading mode describes the canonical atmospheric teleconnection associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) resembling the tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern. The second mode describes a wave train resembling the classic PNA pattern resulting from atmospheric sensitivity to ENSO asymmetry and from sensitivity to a tropical precursor SST for ENSO development. The third mode is characterized by a hemisphere-scale increasing trend in heights. Based on a comparison with 50-member coupled ocean–atmosphere model simulations, it is argued that this mode is strongly related to radiatively forced climate change, while the other two forced teleconnections are principally related to internal coupled variability. A trend in the leading forced mode is related to ENSO-like decadal variability and dominates the overall observed 500-hPa height trend since 1979. These model results indicate that the trend in the first mode is due to internal variability rather than external radiative forcing.

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