scholarly journals Forced Atmospheric Teleconnections during 1979–2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 2333-2357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Zhang ◽  
Martin P. Hoerling ◽  
Judith Perlwitz ◽  
Taiyi Xu
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnections

Abstract Forced atmospheric teleconnections during 1979–2014 are examined using a 50-member ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations subjected to observed variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice, and carbon dioxide. Three primary modes of forced variability are identified using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the ensemble mean wintertime extratropical Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa heights. The principal component time series of the first and second modes are highly correlated with Niño-3.4 and trans-Niño (TNI) SST indices, respectively, indicating mostly tropical sources. Their impacts are largely confined to the Pacific–North American (PNA) sector. The leading mode describes the canonical atmospheric teleconnection associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) resembling the tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern. The second mode describes a wave train resembling the classic PNA pattern resulting from atmospheric sensitivity to ENSO asymmetry and from sensitivity to a tropical precursor SST for ENSO development. The third mode is characterized by a hemisphere-scale increasing trend in heights. Based on a comparison with 50-member coupled ocean–atmosphere model simulations, it is argued that this mode is strongly related to radiatively forced climate change, while the other two forced teleconnections are principally related to internal coupled variability. A trend in the leading forced mode is related to ENSO-like decadal variability and dominates the overall observed 500-hPa height trend since 1979. These model results indicate that the trend in the first mode is due to internal variability rather than external radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Atmospheric impact of the 1783–1784 Laki Eruption: Part II Climatic effect of sulphate aerosol

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 1177-1189 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.-J. Highwood ◽  
D. S. Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Sulphate Aerosol ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
Direct Radiative Forcing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The long 1783-1784 eruption of Laki in southern Iceland, was one of the first eruptions to have been linked to an observed climate anomaly, having been held responsible for cold temperatures over much of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1783-1785. Results from the first climate model simulation of the impact of a similar eruption to that of 1783-1784 are presented. Using sulphate aerosol fields produced in a companion chemical transport model simulation by Stevenson et al. (2003), the radiative forcing and climate response due to the aerosol are calculated here using the Reading Intermediate General Circulation Model (IGCM). The peak Northern Hemisphere mean direct radiative forcing is -5.5 Wm-2 in August 1783. The radiative forcing dies away quickly as the emissions from the volcano decrease; however, a small forcing remains over the Mediterranean until March 1784. There is little forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. There is shown to be an uncertainty of at least 50% in the direct radiative forcing due to assumptions concerning relative humidity and the sophistication of the radiative transfer code used. The indirect effects of the Laki aerosol are potentially large but essentially unquantifiable at the present time. In the IGCM at least, the aerosol from the eruption produces a climate response that is spatially very variable. The Northern Hemisphere mean temperature anomaly averaged over the whole of the calendar year containing most of the eruption is -0.21 K, statistically significant at the 95% level and in reasonable agreement with the available observations of the temperature during 1783.

Decadal Sea Level Variability in the South Pacific in a Global Eddy-Resolving Ocean Model Hindcast

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (8) ◽  
pp. 1731-1747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshi N. Sasaki ◽  
Shoshiro Minobe ◽  
Niklas Schneider ◽  
Takashi Kagimoto ◽  
Masami Nonaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Sea level variability and related oceanic changes in the South Pacific from 1970 to 2003 are investigated using a hindcast simulation of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) for the Earth Simulator (OFES), along with sea level data from tide gauges since 1970 and a satellite altimeter since 1992. The first empirical orthogonal function mode of sea level anomalies (SLAs) of OFES exhibits broad positive SLAs over the central and western South Pacific. The corresponding principal component indicates roughly stable high, low, and high SLAs, separated by a rapid sea level fall in the late 1970s and sea level rise in the late 1990s, consistent with tide gauge and satellite observations. These decadal changes are accompanied by circulation changes of the subtropical gyre at 1000-m depth, and changes of upper-ocean zonal current and eddy activity around the Tasman Front. In general agreement with previous related studies, it is found that sea level variations in the Tasman Sea can be explained by propagation of long baroclinic Rossby waves forced by wind stress curl anomalies, if the impact of New Zealand is taken into account. The corresponding atmospheric variations are associated with decadal variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Thus, decadal sea level variability in the western and central South Pacific in the past three and half decades and decadal ENSO variability are likely to be connected. The sea level rise in the 1990s, which attracted much attention in relation to the global warming, is likely associated with the decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific.

scholarly journals Subtropical Forcing of Tropical Pacific Climate and Decadal ENSO Modulation

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 4691-4709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Matei ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Johann Jungclaus
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract The relative impact of the subtropical North and South Pacific Oceans on the tropical Pacific climate mean state and variability is estimated using an ocean–atmosphere–sea ice coupled general circulation model. Tailored experiments are performed in which the model is forced by idealized sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the subtropics of both hemispheres. The main results of this study suggest that subtropical South Pacific climate variations play a dominant role in tropical Pacific decadal variability and in the decadal modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In response to a 2°C warming in the subtropical South Pacific, the equatorial Pacific SST increases by about 0.6°C, approximately 65% larger than the change in the North Pacific experiment. The subtropics affect equatorial SST mainly through atmosphere–mixed layer interactions in the South Pacific experiments; the response is mostly accomplished within a decade. The “oceanic tunnel” dominates in the North Pacific experiments; the response takes at least 100 yr to be accomplished. Similar sensitivity experiments conducted with the stand-alone atmosphere model showed that both air–sea interactions and ocean dynamics are crucial in shaping the tropical climate response. The statistics of ENSO exhibit significant changes in amplitude and frequency in response to a warming/cooling of the subtropical South Pacific: a 2°C warming (cooling) of subtropical South Pacific SST reduces (increases) the interannual standard deviation by about 30% (20%) and shortens (lengthens) the ENSO period. The simulated changes in the equatorial zonal SST gradient are the main contributor to the modulation of ENSO variability. The simulated intensification (weakening) of the annual cycle in response to an enhanced warming (cooling) in subtropical South Pacific partly explains the shifts in frequency, but may also lead to a weaker (stronger) ENSO. The subtropical North Pacific thermal forcing did not change the statistical properties of ENSO as strongly.

scholarly journals Variability and Predictability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 3153-3167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Mei ◽  
Youichi Kamae ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Kohei Yoshida
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Highly Correlated

Abstract Variability of North Atlantic annual hurricane frequency during 1951–2010 is studied using a 100-member ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The ensemble mean results well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data since 1970, and suggest that the current best track data might underestimate hurricane frequency prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the main development region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the SST-forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a useful predictor; a 1°C increase in this SST difference produces 7.05 ± 1.39 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits strong internal variability that is systematically larger in the model than observations. The seasonal-mean environment is highly correlated among ensemble members and contributes to less than 10% of the ensemble spread in hurricane frequency. The strong internal variability is suggested to originate from weather to intraseasonal variability and nonlinearity. In practice, a 20-member ensemble is sufficient to capture the SST-forced variability.

scholarly journals Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium – an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 547-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ortega ◽  
M. Montoya ◽  
F. González-Rouco ◽  
H. Beltrami ◽  
D. Swingedouw
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
Last Millennium

Abstract. Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

scholarly journals The Effects of the Spatial Distribution of Direct Anthropogenic Aerosols Radiative Forcing on Atmospheric Circulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (17) ◽  
pp. 7129-7145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rei Chemke ◽  
Guy Dagan
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols

The large uncertainty in estimating the global aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) is one of the major challenges the climate community faces for climate projection. While the global-mean ARF may affect global quantities such as surface temperature, its spatial distribution may result in local thermodynamical and, thus, dynamical changes. Future changes in aerosol emissions distribution could further modulate the atmospheric circulation. Here, the effects of the spatial distribution of the direct anthropogenic ARF are studied using an idealized global circulation model, forced by a range of estimated-ARF amplitudes, based on the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service data. The spatial distribution of the estimated-ARF is globally decomposed, and the effects of the different modes on the circulation are studied. The most dominant spatial distribution feature is the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere in comparison to the Southern Hemisphere. This induces a negative meridional temperature gradient around the equator, which modulates the mean fields in the tropics. The ITCZ weakens and shifts southward, and the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere Hadley cell strengthens (weakens). The localization of the ARF in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes shifts the subtropical jet poleward and strengthens both the eddy-driven jet and Ferrel cell, because of the weakening of high-latitude eddy fluxes. Finally, the larger aerosol concentration in Asia compared to North America results in an equatorial superrotating jet. Understanding the effects of the different modes on the general circulation may help elucidate the circulation’s future response to the projected changes in ARF distribution.

scholarly journals Atmospheric impact of the 1783–1784 Laki Eruption: Part II Climatic effect of sulphate aerosol

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1599-1629 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. Highwood ◽  
D. S. Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Sulphate Aerosol ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
Direct Radiative Forcing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The long 1783–1784 eruption of Laki, in southern Iceland, was one of the first eruptions to have been linked to an observed climate anomaly, having been held responsible for cold temperatures over much of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1783–1785. Results from the first climate model simulation of the impact of the 1783–1784 fissure eruption are presented. Using sulphate aerosol fields produced in a companion chemical transport model simulation by Stevenson et al. (2003), the radiative forcing and climate response due to the aerosol are calculated here using the Reading Intermediate General Circulation Model (IGCM). The peak Northern Hemisphere mean direct radiative forcing is −5.5 Wm−2 in August 1783. The radiative forcing dies away quickly as the emissions from the volcano decrease; however, a small forcing remains over the Mediterranean until March 1784. There is little forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. There is shown to be an uncertainty of at least 50% in the direct radiative forcing due to assumptions concerning relative humidity and the sophistication of the radiative transfer code used. The indirect effects of the Laki aerosol are potentially large but essentially unquantifiable at the present time. In the IGCM at least, the aerosol from the eruption produces a climate response that is spatially very variable. The magnitude of the Northern Hemisphere annual mean anomaly for 1783 is −0.21 K, statistically significant at the 95% level and in reasonable agreement with the available observations.

Sensitivity of the middle and upper atmospheric dynamics to the modification of the gravity wave drag parameterization in ICON model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Karami ◽  
Sebastian Borchert ◽  
Roland Eichinger ◽  
Christoph Jacobi ◽  
Ales Kuchar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Gravity Waves ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Mean Flow

<p>The gravity waves play a crucial role in driving and shaping the middle atmospheric circulation. The Upper-Atmospheric extension of the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) general circulation model was recently developed with satisfying performances in both idealized test cases and climate simulations, however the sensitivity of the circulation to the parameterized orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag remains largely unexplored. Using UA-ICON and ICON-NWP, the sensitivity of the dynamics and circulation to both orographic and non-orographic parameterized gravity waves effects are investigated. ICON-NWP stands for the numerical-weather prediction mode of the ICON model (see Zängl et al, 2015, QJRMetSoc), with a model top at about 80 km altitude. The UA-ICON mode differs from ICON-NWP in deep-atmosphere dynamics (instead of shallow-atmosphere dynamics) and upper-atmosphere physics parameterizations being switched on. In addition, the model top is at about 150 km.</p> <p>The sensitivity experiments involve employing repeated annual cycle sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and greenhouse gases under year 1988. This year is selected as both El-Nino southern oscillation and pacific decadal oscillation are in their neutral phase and no explosive volcano eruption has occurred and hence conditions in this year can serve as a useful proxy for the multi-year mean condition and an estimate of its internal variability. For both UA-ICON and ICON-NWP, we perform simulations where in the control (CTL) simulation both orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drags are switched on. The other two experiments are identical to the control simulation except that either orographic (OGWD-off) or b) non-orographic (NGWD-off) gravity wave drags are switched off. The analysis include comparisons between CTL and OGWD-off and NGWD-off simulations and include wave-mean flow interaction diagnostics (Eliassen-Palm flux and its divergence and refractive index of Rossby waves) and mass stream function of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. We also investigate the sudden stratospheric warming frequency and polar vortex morphology in order to understand whether a missing gravity wave forcing can further amplify or curtail the effects of future climate. We present our goal, method as well as first results and discuss possible further analysis. </p>

The observed relationship between Pacific SST variability and Hadley cell extent trends in reanalyses

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-49
Author(s):  
Michael Rollings ◽  
Timothy M. Merlis
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Cell Width ◽  
Sst Variability

AbstractReanalysis and other observationally-based estimates suggest the tropics have expanded more than simulated by coupled climate models with historical radiative forcing. Previous research has attempted to reconcile this discrepancy by using climate model simulations with constrained tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to account for the role of internal variability. Here the relationships between Hadley cell extent and internal SST variability and long-term warming are analysed using purely observational techniques. Using linearly independent components of SST variability with reanalysis datasets, the statistical relationship between Pacific variability and Hadley cell extent is quantified by timescale. There is a strong correlation between North Pacific decadal SST variability and Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell extent. Conversely, there is a weaker observed relation between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Hadley cell extent when low-frequency variability is filtered out of the ENSO signal. The observed linear sensitivity of Hadley cell width to long-termwarming agrees with coupled general circulation model experiments when accounting for uncertainties, and there is a statistically significant relationship between Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell extent and long-term warming during boreal autumn.

Pemanfaatan CFSRv2 untuk Statistical Downscaling menggunakan Principal Component Regression dan Partial Least Square

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khairunnisa Khairunnisa ◽  
Rizka Pitri ◽  
Victor P Butar-Butar ◽  
Agus M Soleh
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Principal Component Regression ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Grid Size ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Output Data

This research used CFSRv2 data as output data general circulation model. CFSRv2 involves some variables data with high correlation, so in this research is using principal component regression (PCR) and partial least square (PLS) to solve the multicollinearity occurring in CFSRv2 data. This research aims to determine the best model between PCR and PLS to estimate rainfall at Bandung geophysical station, Bogor climatology station, Citeko meteorological station, and Jatiwangi meteorological station by comparing RMSEP value and correlation value. Size used was 3×3, 4×4, 5×5, 6×6, 7×7, 8×8, 9×9, and 11×11 that was located between (-40) N - (-90) S and 1050 E -1100 E with a grid size of 0.5×0.5 The PLS model was the best model used in stastistical downscaling in this research than PCR model because of the PLS model obtained the lower RMSEP value and the higher correlation value. The best domain and RMSEP value for Bandung geophysical station, Bogor climatology station, Citeko meteorological station, and Jatiwangi meteorological station is 9 × 9 with 100.06, 6 × 6 with 194.3, 8 × 8 with 117.6, and 6 × 6 with 108.2, respectively.

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