scholarly journals A simulation to identify the optimal area to survey in the early stage of invasion by Solenopsis invicta

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shumpei Hisamoto ◽  
Koichi Goka ◽  
Yoshiko Sakamoto
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Survey Area ◽  
Single Colony ◽  
The Status ◽  
Optimal Area ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Efforts to eradicate invasive alien species commonly use simulations to calculate the cost-effectiveness of surveys. Although eradication of Solenopsis invicta in the early stages of an invasion is important, few simulations are available to calculate the cost-effectiveness of surveys when a single colony has been detected. In the case of S. invicta, it is difficult to determine from the status of the detected colony whether new queens have dispersed, so it is necessary to consider dispersal as a probabilistic event and calculate its probability. We therefore first constructed a mathematical model in which we used Bayesian statistics to estimate the probability of dispersal as a function of the results of the survey. This mathematical model revealed that the efficacy of the survey and the associated cost differed greatly between cases depending on whether dispersal was or was not confirmed. Next, we developed a simulation that incorporated this mathematical model to inform the determination of the survey area when a single colony had been detected. The simulation showed how ecological parameters and geographical information could be used to identify an efficacious survey area, even in heterogeneous landscapes such as international ports where invasions occur sporadically. Finally, we used this simulation to assess the efficacy of a survey in the case of an S. invicta outbreak at the Port of Tokyo, Japan. The results suggested that the survey covered a sufficiently wide area but that it could have been designed in a more efficacious manner.

scholarly journals mCARE, a digital health intervention package on pregnancy surveillance and care-seeking reminders from 2018 to 2027 in Bangladesh: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e042553
Author(s):  
Youngji Jo ◽  
Amnesty Elizabeth LeFevre ◽  
Hasmot Ali ◽  
Sucheta Mehra ◽  
Kelsey Alland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Home Visit ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Health Intervention ◽  
Text Messages ◽  
Care Seeking ◽  
Intervention Package ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Cost

ObjectiveWe estimated the cost-effectiveness of a digital health intervention package (mCARE) for community health workers, on pregnancy surveillance and care-seeking reminders compared with the existing paper-based status quo, from 2018 to 2027, in Bangladesh.InterventionsThe mCARE programme involved digitally enhanced pregnancy surveillance, individually targeted text messages and in-person home-visit to pregnant women for care-seeking reminders for antenatal care, child delivery and postnatal care.Study designWe developed a model to project population and service coverage increases with annual geographical expansion (from 1 million to 10 million population over 10 years) of the mCARE programme and the status quo.Major outcomesFor this modelling study, we used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) that would be averted by 2027, if the coverage of health interventions was increased in mCARE programme and the status quo, respectively. Economic costs were captured from a societal perspective using an ingredients approach and expressed in 2018 US dollars. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to account for parameter uncertainties.ResultsWe estimated the mCARE programme to avert 3076 deaths by 2027 at an incremental cost of $43 million relative to the status quo, which is translated to $462 per DALY averted. The societal costs were estimated to be $115 million for mCARE programme (48% of which are programme costs, 35% user costs and 17% provider costs). With the continued implementation and geographical scaling-up, the mCARE programme improved its cost-effectiveness from $1152 to $462 per DALY averted from 5 to 10 years.ConclusionMobile phone-based pregnancy surveillance systems with individually scheduled text messages and home-visit reminder strategies can be highly cost-effective in Bangladesh. The cost-effectiveness may improve as it promotes facility-based child delivery and achieves greater programme cost efficiency with programme scale and sustainability.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor use in early-stage breast cancer.

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 2435-2444 ◽  
Author(s):  
J H Silber ◽  
M Fridman ◽  
A Shpilsky ◽  
O Even-Shoshan ◽  
D S Smink ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Response Curve ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Early Stage Breast Cancer ◽  
Granulocyte Colony Stimulating Factor ◽  
Colony Stimulating Factor ◽  
Breast Cancer Patients ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Stimulating Factor

PURPOSE To model the cost-effectiveness (CE) of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) in early-stage breast cancer when its use is directed to those most in need of the medication. METHODS A conditional CE model was developed for the use of G-CSF based on a ranking of patient need as determined by patient blood counts during the first cycle of chemotherapy. In the base case, no G-CSF was used. In the alternative case, G-CSF was used in the following manner. If the risk of a neutropenic event (as defined by a predictive model based on nadir absolute neutrophil count [ANC] and hemoglobin decrease in cycle 1) was equal to or exceeded a predetermined critical value "T," then patients would receive G-CSF in cycles 2 through 6 of chemotherapy. If the risk of an event was less than T, patients would not use G-CSF unless an event occurred, at which time G-CSF would be administered with every subsequent cycle. RESULTS A decision rule (T) that would allow the most needy 50% of early-stage breast cancer patients to receive G-CSF after the first cycle of chemotherapy resulted in a CE ratio of $34,297 dollars per life-year saved (LYS). If only the most needy 10% of patients received G-CSF, then the associated CE ratio was $23,748/LYS; if 90% of patients could receive the medication, the CE ratio would be $76,487/LYS. These estimates were relatively insensitive to inpatient hospital cost estimates (inpatient costs for fever and neutropenia of $3,090 to $7,726 per admission produced dollar per LYS figures of $34,297 to $32,415, respectively). However, the model was sensitive to assumptions about the shape of the relationship between dose reduction and disease-free survival (DFS) at 3 years. CONCLUSION Providing G-CSF to the neediest 50% of early-stage breast cancer patients (as defined by first-cycle blood counts) starting after the first cycle of chemotherapy is associated with a CE ratio of $34,297/LYS, which is well in the range of CE ratios for treatment of other common medical conditions. Furthermore, conditional CE studies, based on predictive models that incorporate individual patient risk, allow one to define populations for which therapy is, or is not, cost-effective. Limitations of our present understanding of the shape of the chemotherapy dose-response curve, especially at low levels of dose reductions, affect these results. Further work is required to define the shape of the dose-response curve in early-stage breast cancer.

scholarly journals Early Economic Evaluation of Diagnostic Technologies: Experiences of the NIHR Diagnostic Evidence Co-operatives

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 857-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Abel ◽  
Bethany Shinkins ◽  
Alison Smith ◽  
Andrew J. Sutton ◽  
Gurdeep S. Sagoo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Treatment Effectiveness ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Early Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Diagnostic Technologies ◽  
Evidence Generation

Diagnostic tests are expensive and time-consuming to develop. Early economic evaluation using decision modeling can reduce commercial risk by providing early evidence on cost-effectiveness. The National Institute for Health Research Diagnostic Evidence Co-operatives (DECs) was established to catalyze evidence generation for diagnostic tests by collaborating with commercial developers; DEC researchers have consequently made extensive use of early modeling. The aim of this article is to summarize the experiences of the DECs using early modeling for diagnostics. We draw on 8 case studies to illustrate the methods, highlight methodological strengths and weaknesses particular to diagnostics, and provide advice. The case studies covered diagnosis, screening, and treatment stratification. Treatment effectiveness was a crucial determinant of cost-effectiveness in all cases, but robust evidence to inform this parameter was sparse. This risked limiting the usability of the results, although characterization of this uncertainty in turn highlighted the value of further evidence generation. Researchers evaluating early models must be aware of the importance of treatment effect evidence when reviewing the cost-effectiveness of diagnostics. Researchers planning to develop an early model of a test should also 1) consult widely with clinicians to ensure the model reflects real-world patient care; 2) develop comprehensive models that can be updated as the technology develops, rather than taking a “quick and dirty” approach that may risk producing misleading results; and 3) use flexible methods of reviewing evidence and evaluating model results, to fit the needs of multiple decision makers. Decision models can provide vital information for developers at an early stage, although limited evidence mean researchers should proceed with caution.

DEVELOPMENT OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF THE RYAN WHITE HIV/AIDS PROGRAM

2020 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Ravi Goyal ◽  
Cindy Hu ◽  
Pamela W. Klein ◽  
John Hotchkiss ◽  
Eric Morris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Ryan White ◽  
Aids Program ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Hiv Aids

scholarly journals The use of paclitaxel in the management of early stage breast cancer

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
S Griffin ◽  
G Dunn ◽  
S Palmer ◽  
K Macfarlane ◽  
S Brent ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Health Benefit ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
Early Stage Breast Cancer ◽  
Single Technology Appraisal ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Cost

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical and cost-effectiveness of paclitaxel in the management of early stage breast cancer based upon the manufacturer’s submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The scope was not clearly defined in the manufacturer’s submission. Two of the three clinical trials included in the submission report showed that the addition of four cycles of paclitaxel to four cycles of doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (AC-P) resulted in modest improvements in the two end points of disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The third unpublished study evaluating four cycles of AC followed by paclitaxel or docetaxel in breast cancer did not show any statistically significant differences in DFS or OS between any group. The economic evaluation of paclitaxel for adjuvant therapy in early breast cancer was based on two of the three trials submitted as clinical evidence and used a probabilistic Markov state-transition model. The measure of health benefit was quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and the model included direct costs using a UK NHS perspective. The primary analysis compared AC-P with four cycles of AC. The reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for this comparison was £4726 per additional QALY for AC-P compared with four cycles of AC. The submission did not include a systematic review for clinical or cost-effectiveness evidence. As a result, potentially relevant trials and previously published studies were omitted. The main comparator used did not represent standard care in the UK NHS and a large number of relevant comparators were omitted, including docetaxel. The manufacturer did not consider potentially important patient subgroups defined by baseline risk, and the cost-effectiveness result in the average overall patient population may conceal important variation between subgroups. Overall, although the economic model may have indicated that the addition of four cycles of paclitaxel to four cycles of AC may be cost-effective compared with providing four cycles of AC only, this comparison is not informative to current clinical practice in the UK NHS. In the context of this review it is not possible for the ERG to predict the cost-effectiveness of paclitaxel compared with more appropriate, and potentially more effective, relevant comparators. The guidance issued by NICE in July 2006 as a result of the STA states that paclitaxel is not recommended as an option for the adjuvant treatment of women with early node-positive breast cancer.

Estimating the real cost of adjuvant (A) trastuxumab (T) in patients(pts) with HER-2+ (H+) early stage breast cancer (ESBC)

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 6081-6081
Author(s):  
E. Wilson ◽  
J. Crown ◽  
J. Ballot ◽  
D. McDonnell ◽  
E. Sheehan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Relapse Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Cost ◽  
Molecular Therapies ◽  
Cost Efficient ◽  
Dose Dense ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Risk Of Relapse

6081 Background: Pts with H+ metastatic (M) ESBC have a high risk of relapse. T has been reported to reduce the risk of relapse for pts with H+ESBC by approximately 50% when combined with A chemotherapy (CT). We attempted to study the real cost of AT in the context of current use of T in MBC (MT), and of the predicted reduction in the risk of relapse. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the mean per pt cost of AT and MT, and standard ACT in St. Vincent’s Hospital. The costs/pt for AT and MT were €34k, and €47k respectively, and for the listed agents in standard A: docetaxel(D)-8.8k, paclitaxel(P)-7.4 k, filgrastim(G)-9.3 k. Based on published/presented data (BCIRG 001), we assumed a 35% risk for relapse at five years for pts with H+BC receiving conventional A, and a 50% risk reduction (RR) for AT, giving an absolute benefit of 17.5%. We then devised an equation to calculate the Crp for AT: Crp=[a-M(NRA/104)]/[NRA/104] where a = cost per pt for treatment (Tx) with AT, M = cost per pt for Tx with T in MBC, N = % of pts relapsing after standard A, RA = % reduction in the risk of relapse after Tx with AT (over standard A). Results: The corresponding real T costs/100 pts for the following reductions in relapse rate would be:25%-€3.4m 50%-€2.6m-, 80%-€2.1m, 100%-€1.8m. The Crp for AT with a 50% reduction in relapse rate is €147k. With a 100% reduction in the RR we estimate the Crp to be €50k. We studied D (D-BCIRG 001), P (P-CALGB 9344) and G (G-CALGB 9741 dose-dense), and noted the following published absolute relapse reductions for these tx: D-7%, P-5% and G-4%. The following costs per relapse prevented were calculated: P-148 k; G-231k; D-126k. Conclusions: Using the equation, the real cost per relapse prevented of AT can be calculated, and comparisons made with the cost-effectiveness of other accepted A. Assuming no re-treatment with MT, AT appears to be a relatively cost-efficient means of reducing relapses. Reports of the efficacy of short AT regimens suggest the possibility of even greater cost-effectiveness. This equation could possibly be used to calculate the cost effectiveness of other novel A molecular therapies. [Table: see text]

Cost-effectiveness of primary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim in early-stage breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy in China.

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e18349-e18349
Author(s):  
Wen Xia ◽  
Shusen Wang ◽  
Hao Hu ◽  
Fei Xu ◽  
Kuikui Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Primary Prophylaxis ◽  
Early Stage Breast Cancer ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
The Cost

e18349 Background: Guidelines recommend primary prophylaxis(PP) use for patients receiving chemotherapy regimens with a high risk of febrile neutropenia (FN), which is 20% or higher. This study aim to evaluate the cost effectiveness of PP with pegfilgrastim (Brand name:Jinyouli), PP with filgrastim or no prophylaxis in women with early-stage breast cancer(BC) in China. Methods: A two-phase Markov model was developed for a hypothetical cohort of patients age 45 with stage II BC. First phase modeled costs/outcomes of 4 cycles docetaxel combined cyclophosphamide(TC×4) chemotherapy, with assumptions based on literature reviews including FN rates(Base-case (DSA range),0.29(0.24–0.35)) and related events (FN case-fatality, 3.4 (2.7–4.1)). Second phase models the long term survival which was suggested to link with the relative dose intensity (RDI)( Mortality HR for RDI < 85% vs. ≥85%,1.45 (1.00–2.32)). Clinical effectiveness, costs, and utilities were estimated from peer-reviewed publications and expert opinions in case of unavailability of published evidences. Results: Compared to PP filgrastim and no prophylaxis, PP pegfilgrastim was associated with higher costs 5208.19RMB and 5222.73RMB respectively, and increased quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained 0.066 and 0.297 respectively. Accordingly, the incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) are 79146.3RMB and 17558.77 RMB per QALY, which are both below the three times GDP per capita as the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold suggested by the WHO. Conclusions: Although the cost of PP pegfilgrastim is higher, considering the additional benefits, the administrating of PP pegfilgrastim is likely to be a cost-effective alternative to PP filgrastim and no prophylaxis in patients with early stage breast cancer in China.

Optimization of Sectionalization Parameters of Distributive Electric Networks

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kozyrskyi Volodymyr ◽  
Gai Oleksandr ◽  
Sinyavsky Oleksandr ◽  
Vitaliy Savchenko ◽  
Makarevich Svitlana
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Power Supply ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Electrical Network ◽  
Electric Networks ◽  
Economic Criterion ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Switching Devices

The reliability of electrical consumers depends on the presence of sectioning devices in electrical network distribution. Determining the number and installation sites of sectioning machines is an important optimization problem, based on a comparison of the cost of installing devices and reducing the damage to consumers from an undersupply of electricity. A mathematical model is proposed to determine the cost-effectiveness of installing partitioning switching devices for networks with a means of increasing reliability. This allows for the choice when installing switching devices not only meets an economic criterion (in the form of reducing damage to the power supply system as a whole), but also takes into account the change in the duration of downtime of local consumers.

Management of the N0 neck in early stage oral squamous cell cancer: A modeling study of the cost-effectiveness

Oral Oncology ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 49 (8) ◽  
pp. 771-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim M. Govers ◽  
Robert P. Takes ◽  
Baris Karakullukcu ◽  
Gerjon Hannink ◽  
Matthias A.W. Merkx ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Squamous Cell ◽  
Squamous Cell Cancer ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Cell Cancer ◽  
N0 Neck ◽  
Oral Squamous Cell Cancer ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Modeling Study

Optimizing the Cost-effectiveness of Quality Assurance in Transfusion Medicine

1999 ◽  
Vol 123 (7) ◽  
pp. 603-606
Author(s):  
James P. AuBuchon
Keyword(s):  
Quality Assurance ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Quality Assurance Program ◽  
Transfusion Medicine ◽  
Complete Knowledge ◽  
Quality Assurance Process ◽  
American Health Care ◽  
The Status ◽  
Assurance Process ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Although quality assurance efforts have been integrated into many aspects of American health care, their value has been questioned. They can consume large amounts of resources (monetary and/or temporal), calling into question their cost-effectiveness. To improve the yield of quality assurance efforts and limit their consumption of administrative resources, they need to be focused on those aspects of the operation where improvement is needed or where errors are particularly problematic and costly. Just as a quality assurance program needs to define the outcome required of the process being monitored, the outcome of the quality assurance process needs to be defined at the outset; the simplest possible system should then be designed to capture the necessary data to direct improvement. Although quality assurance efforts have been documented to yield substantial savings, their real payback is provided through better control of an operation and more complete knowledge of the status of that operation.

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