Modeling Current and Future Climate Effects on Winter Wheat Production in Colorado, USA

Abstract Water scarcity is the key challenge in arid regions, which exacerbates under climate change (CC) and must be considered to assess the impacts of CC on cropping systems. A climate-crop modelling approach was employed by using the CSM-CERES-Wheat model in some arid regions of northeast Iran to project the effects of CC on irrigated wheat production. Current climate data for 1990-2019 and climate projections of three climate models for 2021–2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were used to run the crop model. Two irrigation scenarios with different irrigation efficiencies were also simulated to investigate the impacts of water scarcity associated with changing climate and irrigation management on wheat productivity. Results indicated that mean temperature is projected to increase at the rates of 1.74–2.73 °C during the reproductive growth period of winter wheat over the study areas. The precipitation projections also indicated that the precipitation rates would decrease over most of the wheat-growing period. The length of the vegetative growth period will extend in some regions and shorten in others under the near future climate. However, the grain filling duration will reduce by about 2–4 days across all regions. The mean seasonal PET is expected to decrease by about 11 mm from 2021 to 2050 over the study areas. A mean overall reduction in winter wheat yield due to future climate conditions would be about 12.3 % across the study areas. However, an increase of 15-30% in the irrigation efficiency will be able to offset yield reductions associated with limited water supply under future climate scenarios. The results suggest that CC will exacerbate limited irrigation water availability, so implementing high-efficiency irrigation systems should be a priority to adapt to climate change in an arid cropping system.

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Winter wheat production on the Guanzhong Plain of Northwest China under projected future climate with SimCLIM

Agricultural Water Management ◽

10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106233 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 239 ◽

pp. 106233 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Zhen Zheng ◽

Gerrit Hoogenboom ◽

Huanjie Cai ◽

Zikai Wang

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Northwest China ◽

Future Climate ◽

Wheat Production

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Irrigation Scheme Selection Based on Water Footprint Analysis of Winter Wheat Production in Piedmont Plains of Hebei Province under Future Climate Scenarios

Water ◽

10.3390/w13192640 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 2640

Author(s):

Zheng Shi ◽

Tingru Cui ◽

Xiaonuo Sun ◽

Haifeng Wang ◽

Peijun Tao

Keyword(s):

Winter Wheat ◽

Statistical Downscaling ◽

Water Footprint ◽

Hebei Province ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Irrigation Scheme ◽

Piedmont Plain ◽

Wheat Production ◽

Plain Area

The statistical downscaling tool of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to generate the future climate of the piedmont plain area in Hebei Province for a 30-year period. The Xinji city was selected as a typical example of this area. The crop growth model of the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) was adopted to estimate the changing trends of the water footprint of winter wheat production in this area under future climate conditions, and to obtain the optimal irrigation scheme of winter wheat for an ‘acceptable yield’. According to the test results, all the temperature indices of the piedmont plain area increased in the two selected future climate scenarios. In addition, the effective precipitation exhibited a slight decrease in scenario A2 and a remarkable increase in scenario B2. Both the total water footprint and green water footprint increased. A yield of 500 kg per mu was taken as the acceptable yield. In scenario A2, to achieve this acceptable yield, it was required to irrigate once in the jointing period with an irrigation rate of 105 mm. In scenario B2, one-time irrigation with an amount of 85 mm was sufficient to reach the acceptable yield.

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