VAR Analysis on Mutual Relationship between Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate and the Role of World Oil Price and World Gold Price

This study aims to analyze the trend of macroeconomic variables and gold prices in Indonesia and to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables on gold prices in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach. The data used is secondary data from January 2014-December 2019. The analytical tools and techniques used are trend analysis with a linear trend approach and multiple linear regression models using the Ordinary Least Square method. The five research variables that were processed showed that there were differences in the direction of the data trend. Where the variables of Gold Price, Exchange Rate, and Composite Stock Price Index show a positive trend, while the variables of Inflation and World Crude Oil Prices show a negative trend. Furthermore, the variables of Exchange Rate, world Crude Oil Price, and Composite Stock Price Index show a positive and significant influence on the Gold Price in Indonesia. While the inflation variable shows a negative and significant effect on the Gold Price in Indonesia. Keywords: Inflation, foreign exchange,crude oil prices, idx composite and gold prices

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PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SYARIAH (STUDI KASUS DI INDONESIA DAN MALAYSIA)

ISLAMICONOMIC Jurnal Ekonomi Islam ◽

10.32678/ijei.v9i2.91 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

Author(s):

DESY TRISHARDIYANTI ADININGTYAS

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Stock Price ◽

Price Index ◽

Gold Price ◽

Oil Price ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model

Abstract. The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Sharia Stock Price Index (Case Study in Indonesia and Malaysia). The purpose of this research is to know the effect of macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, world crude oil price and world gold price) on sharia stock price index in Indonesia and Malaysia. By using Error Correction Model as the method, this research utilizes time series monthly data from March 2015 until February 2018. The finding shows that in long-term, inflation in Indonesia, exchange rate of rupiah, world crude oil price and world gold price had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index. In short-term, inflation in Indonesia, world crude oil price, world gold price had not significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index and exchange rate of rupiah had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index. Meanwhile, inflation in Malaysia, world crude oil price, world gold price had not significant effect on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index in long-term and short-term. And exchange rate of ringgit had significant effect on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index in long-term and short-term. Abstrak. Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Syariah (Studi Kasus di Indonesia dan Malaysia). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel makroekonomi (inflasi, kurs, harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas dunia) terhadap indeks harga saham syariah di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Error Correction Model, dengan data time series bulanan dari Maret 2015 sampai dengan Februari 2018. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa pada jangka panjang, inflasi Indonesia, kurs rupiah, harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas dunia berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index. Pada jangka pendek, inflasi Indonesia, harga minyak mentah dunia, harga emas dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index dan kurs rupiah berpengaruh terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index. Sementara itu, inflasi Malaysia, harga minyak mentah dunia, harga emas dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Dan kurs ringgit berpengaruh terhadap FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek.

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Performance Analysis of Indonesia’s Mining Sector Price Index

Signifikan Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi ◽

10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5395 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 357-370

Author(s):

Hastra Reza Satyatama ◽

Riwi Sumantyo

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Stock Price ◽

Price Index ◽

Gold Price ◽

Mining Sector ◽

Correction Model ◽

Monthly Data ◽

Jones Index ◽

Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽

Stock Price Index

Subprime mortage’s crisis in United States 2008 giving effect to the global capital markets especially the stock price index of the mining sector Indonesia. This research analyzes the effect of BI Rate, exchange rate, world gold price, crude oil price, and Dow Jones Industrial Average on the stock price index of the mining sector. This research employs time series monthly data of 2009-2016 with Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG) as the method. The analysis showed that the BI rate, exchange rate and world gold price, has a negative and significant effect. World oil prices affect positively but not significant meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a positive and significant impact on the stock price index of the mining sector. For investors in the mining sector, should pay attention to the exchange rate of the rupiah and Dow Jones Index significantly in the mining sector of the stock price index.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5395

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DAMPAK VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN INDEKS SAHAM GLOBAL TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA LQ45 DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Jurnal Ekonomi ◽

10.24912/je.v21i3.21 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Nuryasman MN ◽

Verencia Permatasari

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Stock Price ◽

Price Index ◽

Sampling Technique ◽

Gold Price ◽

Significance Level ◽

Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽

Stock Price Index ◽

Global Stock

The objective of this research was to examine the macroeconomics variable and global stock price index that influencing LQ45 stock price. There were three fundamental macroeconomics variables in this study such as Exchange rate of Rupiah, Interest Rate (SBI), and gold prices which used with global stock price index (Dow Jones Industrial Average) to examine their influence to LQ45 stock price.The sampling data used are 69 months from 2009 January until 2014 September. The selection ofthe sample usedisa non-probability sampling method, using purposive sampling technique. The method usedis multiple regression analysis and Error Correction Model (ECM)using softwareEviews6.0witha significance level of5%. The result of t-test show that gold prices have not influence LQ45 stock price. While the Exchange rate of Rupiah, Interest Rate (SBI), and Dow Jones Industrial Average have influence LQ45 stock price.The result of F- test (jointly test) showthat there are significantjointlybetween Exchange rate of Rupiah, Interest Rate (SBI), gold price, and Dow Jones Industrial Averageon LQ45 stock price.The result of ECM Models show that between Exchange rate of Rupiah, Interest Rate (SBI), gold price, and Dow Jones Industrial Averageon LQ45 stock price, there was notable toachieve abalance inthe long run.

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ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, KURS DAN IHSG TERHADAP RETURN REKSA DANA SAHAM PT NIKKO SECURITIES INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2017

Jurnal Aktual Akuntansi Keuangan Bisnis Terapan (AKUNBISNIS) ◽

10.32497/akunbisnis.v2i2.1657 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 103

Author(s):

Muhammad Rois Rois ◽

Manarotul Fatati Fatati ◽

Winda Ihda Magfiroh

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Multiple Linear Regression ◽

Stock Price ◽

Price Index ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Equity Fund ◽

Stock Price Index

This study aims to determine the effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) to Return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia Stock Fund period 2014-2017. The study used secondary data obtained through documentation in the form of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia Monthly Net Asset (NAB) report. Data analysis is used with quantitative analysis, multiple linear regression analysis using eviews 9. Population and sample in this research are PT Nikko Securities Indonesia. The result of multiple linear regression analysis was the coefficient of determination (R2) showed the result of 0.123819 or 12%. This means that the Inflation, Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) variables can influence the return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia's equity fund of 12% and 88% is influenced by other variables. Based on the result of the research, the variables of inflation and exchange rate have a negative and significant effect toward the return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia's equity fund. While the variable of Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) has a negative but not significant effect toward Return of Equity Fund of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia

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MODELING THE INTERACTIONS OF STOCK PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN MALAYSIA

The Singapore Economic Review ◽

10.1142/s0217590809003471 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 54 (04) ◽

pp. 605-619 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

MOHD TAHIR ISMAIL ◽

ZAIDI BIN ISA

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Exchange Rates ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Stock Price ◽

Price Index ◽

Composite Index ◽

Regime Shifts ◽

Var Model ◽

Vector Autoregressive ◽

Stock Price Index

After the East Asian crisis in 1997, the issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related or not have received much attention. This is due to realization that during the crisis the countries affected saw turmoil in both their currencies and stock markets. This paper studies the non-linear interactions between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia using a two regimes multivariate Markov switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) model with regime shifts in both the mean and the variance. In the study, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and the exchange rates of Malaysia ringgit against four other countries namely the Singapore dollar, the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling and the Australian dollar between 1990 and 2005 are used. The empirical results show that all the series are not cointegrated but the MS-VAR model with two regimes manage to detect common regime shifts behavior in all the series. The estimated MS-VAR model reveals that as the stock price index falls the exchange rates depreciate and when the stock price index gains the exchange rates appreciate. In addition, the MS-VAR model fitted the data better than the linear vector autoregressive model (VAR).

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Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Indeks Dow Jones Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI)

KINDAI ◽

10.35972/kindai.v17i1.590 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (3) ◽

pp. 542-562

Author(s):

Delila Putri Syarina

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Exchange Rates ◽

Stock Price ◽

Quantitative Method ◽

Price Index ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Sampling Techniques ◽

Jones Index ◽

Stock Price Index

Abstract: This study aims to study both partially and simultaneously, large, Analysis, Analysis, Value, Exchange, Inflation, and the Dow Jones Index Against the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) and the dominant dominant variable on the Price Index Joint Stock (CSPI)).The method used in this study is a quantitative method and with a population of 10 (ten) years, samples were taken with census sampling techniques of 10 (ten) years per year-end period, research instruments using classical data assumptions - data used using regression linear multiple.The results of this study indicate that (1) Rupiah Exchange Rates, Inflation and the Dow Jones Index influence simultaneously on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (2) the Dow Jones Index is partially related to the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in The Indonesian Stock Exchange, while the Rupiah Exchange Rate and Inflation are not partially on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (3) The dominant dominant variable on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange is the Dow Jones Index..Keywords : Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, Dow Jones Index and Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui baik secara parsial dan simultan seberapa besar Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Indeks Dow Jones Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) serta variabel yang berpengaruh dominan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kuantitatif dan dengan populasi sebanyak 10 (sepuluh) tahun, diambil sampel dengan teknik sampling sensus sebanyak 10 (sepuluh) tahun per periode akhir tahun, instrument penelitian uji asumsi klasik data – data diuji dengan menggunakan regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa (1) Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi dan Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (2) Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia, sedangkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Inflasi tidak berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (3) Variabel yang berpengaruh dominan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia adalah Indeks Dow Jones. . Kata kunci : Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi, Indeks Dow Jones dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG).

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Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi terhadap Nilai Aktiva Bersih Reksadana Saham Syariah Periode 2015-2019

Journal of Applied Islamic Economics and Finance ◽

10.35313/jaief.v1i2.2468 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 332-348

Author(s):

Hani Nurrahmawati ◽

Hasbi Assidiki Mauluddi ◽

Endang Hatma Juniwati

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Mutual Funds ◽

Stock Price ◽

Price Index ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Series Data ◽

Asset Value ◽

Net Asset Value ◽

Net Assets ◽

Stock Price Index

The title of this research is Analysis Influence of Macroeconomic to Net Asset Value of Islamic Mutual Fund Equity period 2015-2019. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of partially and simultaneously variables of BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate on Net Asset Value of Sharia Mutual Funds in Indonesia in the period January 2015 - December 2019. The dependent variable is Net Asset Value of Sharia Mutual Funds, while the independent variables are BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate.Types of data used in this study are secondary data sourced from OJK, IHSG-IDX and BI published between 2015-2019. All of the data will be processed panel data which is a combination of time series data and cross section data. The results of this research showed that in the partial just variables of the BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate influenced to Net Assets Value of Islamic Mutual Funds in Indonesia, and simultaneous from variables of the BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate influenced to Net Assets Value of Islamic Mutual Funds in Indonesia and the value of Adjusted R-square coefficient of determination is 0.311175 means in togetherness variables of the BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate have a contribution influenced NAV of Islamic Mutual Funds in the amount of 31%, while the rest is 69% influenced by other variables that are not included into this research.

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Pengaruh Inflasi, BI-7 Day Reverse Repo Rate, Kurs, Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan terhadap Nilai Aktiva Bersih Reksa Dana Saham

Owner ◽

10.33395/owner.v5i2.457 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 358-367

Author(s):

Jhon Lismart Benget. P.

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Mutual Funds ◽

Money Supply ◽

Mutual Fund ◽

Stock Price ◽

Price Index ◽

Asset Value ◽

Net Asset Value ◽

Repo Rate ◽

Stock Price Index

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of inflation, BI-7 day reverses repo rate, exchange rate, the money supply, and composite stock price index on the net asset value of stock mutual funds. The population of this study is the stock mutual fund which was listed on the financial services authority in 2017-2020. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously inflation, BI-7 day reverse repo rate, exchange rate, the money supply, and composite stock price index affect the net asset value of the stock mutual fund. Partially, this study show BI-7 day reverse repo rate has a positive and significant effect on the net asset value of a stock mutual fund. The exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the net asset value of stock mutual funds. The composite stock price index has a positive and significant effect on the net asset value of stock mutual funds. The money supply has a negative and significant effect on the net asset value of a stock mutual fund while inflation has no significant effect on the net asset value of a stock mutual fund.

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The Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Financial Markets

Economies ◽

10.3390/economies8040107 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 107

Author(s):

Mirzosaid Sultonov

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Stock Price ◽

Price Index ◽

The United States ◽

The European Union ◽

Stock Price Index ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

The Impact

Russia’s international comportment and geostrategic moves, particularly the invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, caused a substantial change in its international economic and political relations. In response to Russia’s invasion, the United States of America, the European Union, and their allies imposed a series of sanctions. In this study, by applying an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to daily logarithmic returns of the ruble exchange rate and the closing price index of the Russian Trading System, we analyze how the returns and volatility of the exchange rate and the stock price index responded to the sanctions and oil price changes. The estimation results show that the sanctions have a significant positive short-term impact on exchange rate returns. Economic sanctions have a significant negative long-term impact on the returns and variance of the exchange rate and a significant positive long-term impact on the returns of the stock price index. Financial sanctions have a positive/negative long-term impact on the returns of the exchange rate/stock price index and a positive long-term impact on the variance of the exchange rate and the stock price index. Corporate sanctions have a positive long-term impact on exchange rate returns.

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