scholarly journals Cooperative decision-making on fiscal and monetary policy in Iraq using the prisoner’s dilemma

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 88-98
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdulzahra Hamdan ◽  
Safaa Ali Hussein
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Payoff Matrix ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Payoff Matrices ◽  
Cooperative Decision Making ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

This paper investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in Iraq after 2003 using the prisoner’s dilemma.The paper aims to determine the best form of coordination between these policies to achieve their goals; payoff matrix for both policies was constructed. To achieve the purpose, the quantitative approach was applied using several methods, including regression, building payoff matrices and decision analysis using a number of software.The results of the monetary policy payment function show that inflation rate has an inverse relationship with the auctions of selling foreign currency and a positive relationship with the government’s activity, while the fiscal policy function shows that real growth is positively related to price levels (the inverted Phillips curve) and correlates with the government’s activity. After using the Gambit Solution to determine the Nash balance, which is achieved through the expansion strategies of both policies to confirm the results, the Promethee-Gaia method was used for multi-criteria decision making. When the two policies interact with similar forces (50% each), the best decision is one of the expansionary strategies that help achieve their main objectives in the short and long term, represented by price stability and economic growth.The main conclusion is that the best way to achieve the goals of economic policy in Iraq is that the coordination of procedures between the two policies should be expansionary, since the Iraqi economy needs to be stimulated due to the under-exploitation of many its sectors, such as agriculture and industry.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

scholarly journals The Unpleasant Arithmetic of the Taylor Rule

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. p89
Author(s):  
Alejandro Rodriguez-Arana
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Independent Component ◽  
Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
Interest Rate Rule

This paper analyzes the effect of a monetary policy that raises the reference interest rate in order to reduce inflation in a situation where the fiscal policy parameters remain constant. In an overlapping generation’s model and in the presence of an accelerationist Phillips curve and a Taylor rule of interest rates, it is observed that increasing the independent component of said rule leads to a solution that at least in a large number of cases is unstable. In the case where the elasticity of substitution is greater than one, inflation falls temporarily, but then it can increase in an unstable manner. One way to achieve stability is to establish an interest rate rule where Taylor’s principle is not met. However, in this case many times the increase in the independent component of this rule will generate greater long-term inflation.

scholarly journals Ten years after the crisis in Hungary

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (s2) ◽  
pp. 121-142
Author(s):  
György Surányi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mind Set ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy ◽  
The Eu

Looking back to the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, Hungary was among the first countries to be forced to make use of financial assistance from the EU and the IMF. The government, the MNB (the central bank of Hungary) as well as the domestic and foreign analysts cited the high public debt and the volume of unsecured foreign-currency loans as the main reasons for the crises. Though these were real weaknesses, this diagnosis was false as much as the following treatment. First and foremost, it was the inadequate level of foreign exchange reserves that made Hungary to request outside financial assistance. The excessive fiscal tightening urged by the MNB only led to deepening of the crises. In general, the macropolicy – both fiscal and monetary policy – before, during and after the crises turned out to be painfully pro-cyclical. Due to the lack of sufficient reserves, the MNB became virtually powerless to intervene and could only watch from the side-lines as events unfolded. The orthodox mind-set after replenishing the forex reserves prevented it from implementing a broad scale of unconventional measures to ease the crises. The fiscal authority lost its capacity long before to reduce the severity of the crises. Thus, the excessive and incorrect structure of fiscal correction coupled with an unjustified orthodox monetary policy, the contraction of the Hungarian economy went much beyond the inevitable amount.

The Link between German Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates. Some Evidence against a Term Structure Oriented Monetary Policy / Der Zusammenhang zwischen kurz- und langfristigen Zinssätzen in Deutschland. Empirische Evidenz gegen eine zinsstrukturorientierte Geldpolitik

1998 ◽  
Vol 217 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Uwe Hassler ◽  
Dieter Nautz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Stable Relationship ◽  
Monetary Targeting ◽  
Main Indicator ◽  
Short And Long Term

SummaryCritics of the Bundesbank's monetary policy recently suggested the abandonment of monetary targeting in favour of the term structure of interest rates as the main indicator of central bank policy. However, a term structure oriented policy requires a reliable link between short- and long-term interest rates. Our analysis clearly suggests that there is no stable relationship between German short- and long-term interest rates, in particular not after the German monetary union. Consequently, the empirical results of this paper indicate that this policy has not much chance of success.

Autonomy in Maternal Accounts of Birth after Cesarean

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Soliday ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Scientific Knowledge ◽  
Practice Patterns ◽  
Obstetric Care ◽  
Ethical Guidelines ◽  
Current State ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Maternal Autonomy

Following decades of maltreatment of women in obstetric care, professional respect for maternal autonomy in obstetric decision making and care have become codified in global and national professional ethical guidelines. Yet, using the example of birth after cesarean, identifiable threats to maternal autonomy in obstetrics continue. This paper focuses on how current scientific knowledge and obstetric practice patterns factor into restricted maternal autonomy as evidenced in three representative maternal accounts obtained prior and subsequent to birth after cesarean. Short- and long-term remedies to improve the current state of restricted maternal autonomy in clinical practice surrounding decision making on birth after cesarean are provided.

Weaker AKP would reduce Turkish president's authority

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Representation System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy ◽  
At Home

Significance The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) should easily get the most votes, but it faces a likely setback and a dent in its authority. Weakening support from its voters and Turkey's proportional representation system are likely to drive its number of parliamentary seats down from the 327 out of 550 seats it won in 2011, perhaps even to the point where an overall majority is in doubt. Impacts Market confidence and the lira may weaken, but will not deteriorate drastically, unless AKP is forced out of office -- a remote scenario. Fiscal and monetary policy may be loosened to win support until a new government able to last for a full four-year term is in office. A politically weaker AKP risks long-term splits, but these will not emerge unless there have been months of instability. Growing internal discord -- and the government's defiant response to its critics at home and abroad -- may isolate Turkey internationally. The United States and EU will continue to avoid confrontation with the Erdogan government as far as possible.

scholarly journals The relationship between remittances and economic growth in Vietnam in the period of international integration

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 104-112
Author(s):  
Tung Thanh Le
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship

Over nearly three decades, remittances are one of the most important sources of foreign currency in ensuring balance of payments, foreign currency reserves increase, stabilize exchange market and financial market in Vietnam. This paper uses the AutoregressiveDistributed Lag model (ARDL) to study the relationship between remittances and economic growth in Vietnam in 1990-2014. Results of Perasan’ test confirmed the existence of long-term relationship between remittances and economic growth in Vietnam. The results also provide evidence of the positive impact of remittances to economic growth both in the short and long term.

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