scholarly journals Macroeconomic factors that influence the bank loans rate in international and Ukrainian practice

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 35-47
Author(s):  
Sergiy Ivakhnenkov ◽  
Svitlana Hlushchenko ◽  
Kamilla Sverenko

The goal of the paper is to disclose the links between the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and the level of bank loan rates based on international and Ukrainian practice. On the basis of the previous analysis, the paper also aims to identify the key trends in the formation of loan prices in the long run and identify problematic issues related to bank loan rates. The main characteristics of bank lending rates in Ukraine are: a) their high rates; b) sharp changes in the weighted average bank loan rates from year to year; c) higher loan rates for households compared to the cost of bank loans for businesses; d) higher bank loan rates for short- and medium-term loans versus long-term ones; e) lower rates on loans in foreign currency compared to the loans in hryvnia; and f) high share of non-performing loans to households and businesses in bank portfolios. In the context of world and Ukrainian practice, the paper demonstrates the reverse effect between macroeconomic indicators such as GDP per capita, the ratio of loans to GDP, the ease of doing business index and bank loan rates. The article also demonstrates a direct relationship between the dynamics of inflation rate in the country, the dynamics of non-performing bank loans and their rates.

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Cowling ◽  
Weixi Liu ◽  
Elaine Conway

PurposeUsing ethnicity as our point of focus, the authors consider the dynamics of the demand for bank loans, and the willingness of banks to supply them, as the UK economy entered the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 with a particular focus on potential behavioural differences on the demand-side and discrimination on the supply-side. In doing so we directly address crisis induced financial concerns and how they played out in the context of ethnicity.Design/methodology/approachUsing the most recent ten quarterly waves of the UK SME Finance Monitor survey the authors consider whether ethnicity of the business owner impacts on the decision to apply for bank loans in the first instance. The authors then question whether ethnicity influences the banks decision to meet or reject the request for a bank loan.FindingsThe authors’ pre-COVID-19 results show that there were no ethnic differences in loan application and success rates. During COVID-19, both white and ethnic business loan application rates rose significantly, but the scale of this increase was greater for ethnic businesses. The presence of government 100% guaranteed lending also increased general loan success rates, but again the scale of this improvement was greater for ethnic businesses.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors show very clearly that differences in the willingness of banks to supply loans to SMEs relate very explicitly to firm specific characteristics and ethnicity either plays no additional role or actually leads to improved loan outcomes. The data is for the UK and for a very unique COVID time which may mean that wider generalisability is unwise.Practical implicationsEthnic business owners should not worry about lending discrimination or be discouraged from applying for loans.Social implicationsThe authors identify at worst no lending discrimination and at best positive ethnic discrimination.Originality/valueThis is one of the largest COVID-19 period studies into the financing of ethnic businesses.


2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1028-1051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sijia Zhang ◽  
Andros Gregoriou

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine stock market reactions and liquidity effects following the first bank loan announcement of zero-leverage firms. Design/methodology/approach The authors use an event studies methodology in both a univariate and multivariate framework. The authors also use regression analysis. Findings Using a sample of 96 zero-leverage firms listed on the FTSE 350 index over the time period of 2000–2015, the authors find evidence of a significant and permanent stock price increase as a result of the initial debt announcement. The loan announcement results in a sustained increase in trading volume and liquidity. This improvement continues to persist once the authors control for stock price and trading volume effects in both the short and long run. Furthermore, the authors examine the spread decomposition around the same period, and discover the adverse selection of the bid–ask spread is significantly related to the initial bank loan announcement. Research limitations/implications The results can be attributed to the information cost/liquidity hypothesis, suggesting that investors demand a lower premium for trading stocks with more available information. Originality/value This is the first paper to look at multiple industries, more than one loan and information asymmetry effects.


Author(s):  
Oliver Hülsewig ◽  
Peter Winker ◽  
Andreas Worms

SummaryThis paper explores the existence of the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Germany on the basis of a structural analysis of aggregate bank loan data. The empirical analysis is carried out in a vector error correction model (VECM), which allows to identify long-run cointegration relationships that can be interpreted as loan supply and loan demand equations. In this way, the fundamental identification problem inherent in reduced form approaches based on aggregate data is explicitly adressed. The short-run dynamics of the VECM is investigated by means of impulse response analysis, which sets out the impact of a monetary policy shock on the variables in the system. Empirical evidence consistent with the existence of a credit channel operating in Germany alongside the interest rate channel can be reported.


2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of interest rates, bank-level and macroeconomic variables on bank lending based on the type of use. The analysis method uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with quarterly data for the period of 2011Q1 - 2020Q1. The results show that investment lending behavior can be explained well by all bank-level and macroeconomic variables for the long run. The bank-level variable also reflects the performance and soundness of the bank, namely the capital adequacy ratio and loan to deposit ratio. Meanwhile, macroeconomic variables include inflation and real GDP. Consumer lending behavior is better explained by macroeconomic variables than bank-level variables. Meanwhile, GDP is the only variable that has a significant effect on working capital loans, which means that the behavior of working capital loans is more influenced by the business cycle as indicated by changes in real GDP. GDP is the only variable that consistently has a significant positive effect on bank loans for the three types of loans. Banks need to continue to emphasize the principle of prudence in providing credit by taking into account the term and credit risk, as well as internal and external factors.


Author(s):  
Elena Nicolaevna Derbeneva

The article defines the role of Bank lending in the development of small and medium businesses. These businesses do not require a large amount of upfront investment; they provide a fast turnover of resources and high growth rates. Such kind of business allows innovating and solving important problems related to the unemployment and the restructuring of the economy. Bank loans and financial subsidies from the state have become the most popular sources of financing for these business entities. The article gives the analysis and assessment of the current state of Bank lending of small and medium businesses in Russia. The benefits of lending in this market segment for commercial banks are obvious. It is a highly profitable type of business that gives a possibility of diversifying the credit portfolio. The article reveals the basic problems of Bank lending in small and medium businesses and the reasons of their emergence. The main problems of decreasing demand at the market are the cost of borrowed funds and the need for collateral. The article presents further landing objectives. Banks need to implement approaches providing a combination of techniques appropriate to both corporate and retail customers, for creation a unified system of quick services for small and medium businesses.


Author(s):  
Yaroslav Chaikovskyi

The article considers bank lending to corporate clients in Ukraine overcoming the issues related to economic cycles. The dynamics of gross domestic product, total assets, and credit portfolios of Ukraine’s banks over the period between 2012 and 2016 is analyzed. The changes in the composition of bank loans to non-financial corporations are analyzed in terms of scheduled payments, forms of currencies, target allocation and economic activities. Additionally, the dynamics and composition of residents’ deposits mobilized by deposit-taking corporations are considered in terms of scheduled payments over the above period. The major factors that hinder the recovery of bank lending to corporate clients are identified. It is highlighted that the main obstacles to the development of banking lending to corporate clients in Ukraine in times of economic cycles are as follows: high interest rates; a significant percentage of unprofitable enterprises and loan arrears in bank loan portfolios; an increase of non-performing loans (NPL); the fact that banks, having sufficient liquidity for lending to economy-boosting projects, prefer to purchase government securities; corrupt practices of granting loans to affiliated companies (insider loans). The percentage of unprofitable enterprises in Ukraine in 2016 is determined and analyzed by type of economic activity. Based on the analysis performed, some assumptions are made about the trends of the development of bank lending to corporate clients in Ukraine and proposals on further harmonization of bank lending to corporate clients in times of economic cycles are set out.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 97-106
Author(s):  
Nagip Skenderi ◽  
Adem Dreshaj

Abstract The risk from non-payment of loans is a challenge for all the banks. Payment of the loans is a crucial issue for efficient functioning of the banking system. Loaning is one of the main uncertainties in the banking business, for loan payment can be rarely guaranteed completely. Often, a question occurs: what are the factors that influence in failure of the return of bank loan? What are the politics that must be followed to stimulate the return of bank loans? Through this research we aim to highlight the reasons of debtors in failing of loan return by studying the link of macroeconomic factors with NPL (non-performing loans). This is a first research in Kosovo that analyses the link of the macroeconomic factors influence (GDP, interest norms, unemployment, inflation, maturity period and grace period) these referred in the research as “independent variables” in failure of bank loan return that in the study bellow are referred as “dependent variable NPL for the Kosovo bank sector. This study argues as what is needed for the Kosovo banking system and presents the ideas of sustainable development of banking system in correspondence with non-performing loans, acknowledgment of the factors that hinder the return of the bank loans and reorientation of the loaning politics.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. p71
Author(s):  
Fahredin Berisha

SMEs play a very important role in the development of economies of different countries and they are now considered as a key factor of economic development. They affect unemployment, promote social welfare and can be treated as a promoter of economic growth. The paper addresses the role and importance of financing SMEs in transition countries including Kosovo. The study examines the key factors affecting the increase of SME financing from external sources, namely bank lending since other external sources of financing in Kosovo are scarce and almost non-existent. For the purposes of this paper, data from 215 SMEs surveyed in Kosovo were used, randomly distributed across manufacturing, services and commerce sectors. Data collection was done in the period January-April 2016, and their processing was carried out with SPSS (Social Package for Social Science). In order to have more consistent information during data processing, certain models were used in the paper: Paried-Samples T Test, which was used to investigate the difference between two sets of averages, which indicates that the business plan for the enterprise is relevant to bank loan access. The One Way Anova model was used to test the differences between two or more averages, and through this model is proved that high-profit enterprises have achieved easier access to bank loans. Also following the One Way Anova and Post Hoc LSD test, there were found differences between groups of enterprise by their types, activity and age. The research shows that enterprises with older ages have been able to obtain more easily bank loans. The One Way Anova and Welch-Brown-Forthyse test was used to deal with the level of education of business owners, whereby it was found that owners with a high level of education had easier access to bank loans. Through the Indepedent Samples T Test technique it was found that there is a significant difference between the age groups of the owners based on the mean and standard deviation.


Author(s):  
E. Arapova

The article examines the prospects of monetary integration in East Asia and the specific issue of the Asian Currency Unit (ACU) that could potentially become a core element of Asian monetary integration in the long run. The research explores main initiatives underlying financial cooperation and key obstacles hampering monetary integration in the region. The concept of Asian currency unit was introduced by the East Asian countries as one of the mechanisms aimed to ensure regional financial stability. Being a weighted average of regional currencies ACU is highly negatively affected by the volatility of Asian currencies’ exchange rates. That’s why the main aim of the article is to find the “optimal ACU currency basket structure” with minimal variance able to deliver stability in intra-regional exchange rates. The paper offers the author’s attempt to answer three main questions. First, what kind of criteria/macroeconomic indicators must underlie the ACU basket computation. Second, what national currencies should be included in this basket. Third, what weights are to be attributed to the national currencies for achieving an optimal basket structure. The research considers five alternative configurations of the ACU basket. The best one should be neither too rigid nor too volatile; it must be a compromise solution meeting interests of the main regional actors. Initial estimates of the ACU currency weights are based on the RIETI concept that is based on consideration of three main economic indicators, namely, the member countries shares in the aggregate GDP, foreign trade and outward investment. The author complemented the basic methodology by an extra criterion – countries’ shares in aggregate international reserves. The final conclusions on the optimal ACU basket composition are made through the analysis of the aggregated variation coefficient for each alternative set of the national currencies. The coefficient is calculated according to the original method developed by the author. The calculations are based on the national currencies’ monthly exchange rates data generated for the period January 2009 – February 2014. The analysis results in proposition of an optimal ACU basket structure with the calculated optimal countries’ weights. The author gives the recommendations for higher efficiency and regional financial stability.


2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1269
Author(s):  
Pasquale Di Biase

This paper empirically investigates the impact of the new capital requirements imposed under Basel III on bank lending rates.A general accounting equilibrium model is developed in order to map the change in the average interest rate on bank loans which is required to preserve the economic performance and the market value of financial institutions under the new regulatory framework.The study refers to the Italian banking system. According to our estimates, the long-term impact of heightened capital requirements on bank loan rates is likely to be modest.In our baseline scenario, we find evidence that each percentage point increase in the capital ratio can be recovered by increasing interest rates with which borrowers are charged by only 5.75 basis points. We conclude that the Italian banking system should be able to adjust to the higher capital requirements imposed by Basel III through a set of operative and commercial levers with no significant effects on the cost of credit for companies and consumers.


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