scholarly journals Social and economic drivers of national economic development: the case of OPEC countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 155-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mlaabdal Saady Mahmood Abaas ◽  
Olena Chygryn ◽  
Oleksandr Kubatko ◽  
Tetyana Pimonenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Per Capita

This paper examines the economic relationships between oil price volatility and socially-economic development of 14 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) using the annual panel data for the period 1990–2014 obtained from the World Bank (WB) statistical data sets. Hausman specification test has been performed to choose the method of panel data analysis, and the results were in favor of fixed effects estimation. The main findings indicate the direct relationship between economic growth and oil price volatility. The research supports the hypothesis that an increase in crude oil prices is positively related to GDP, and a 10% increase in oil prices correlates with 0.6-4% GDP improvements. Structural changes in employment in favor of service sector are negatively correlated with GDP per capita. Changes in GDP structure in favor of oil rents on 10% lead to the shrinking of GDP on 1%. Life expectancy at birth, as an indirect indicator of health, positively influences the economic growth indicators and an improvement in life expectancy on one percentage leads on average to 1% growth in GDP and 0.5-1.33% growth in GDP per capita. Energy efficiency improvements are positive drivers of GDP values at OPEC, and our findings suggest that a 10% increase at GDP per unit of energy use leads to 3% increase of GDP itself. The study recommends investing in energy efficiency, human capital, and capital formation to guarantee long-run economic development and prosperity of OPEC counties.

scholarly journals An empirical analysis of volatility in South African oil prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 67-75
Author(s):  
Victor Mbua Mofema ◽  
Gisele Mah
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
South African ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Per Capita

Volatility of the oil price has been around since the 1970s and an understanding of how it evolves provides insight into solving macroeconomic challenges. The main objective of this study was to analyse the volatility of South African oil prices using quarterly time series data from 2000 to 2020. The effect of growth in gross domestic product per capita, interest rate, inflation and money supply growth on oil price changes was assessed. Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) was estimated and diagnostic tests – namely ARCH, normality and autocorrelation tests – were conducted. The GARCH (1,2) model was the best fit, based on the Alkaike information criterion. The result revealed that interest rates and money supply growth have a significant positive effect on oil price changes in South Africa, while growth in GDP per capita and inflation has an insignificant impact. Past one and two-quarters’ oil price volatility increases and decreases the current oil price volatility respectively. Based on the findings, a contractionary monetary policy is recommended in order to reduce the volatility of South African oil prices.

scholarly journals EFECTOS DE LA INCERTIDUMBRE DE LOS PRECIOS DEL PETRÓLEO EN EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO DE MÉXICO

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (309) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domingo Rodríguez Benavides ◽  
Francisco López Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

<p>En este trabajo investigamos si la incertidumbre del precio internacional del petróleo incidió en la actividad económica de México durante 1983:2-2017:4. Empleamos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) estructural bivariado con un proceso generalizado autorregresivo de heterocedasticidad condicional (GARCH) en media que captura el impacto de la volatilidad del petróleo en el crecimiento económico y la formación bruta de capital fijo. Nuestros resultados muestran que la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero tiene una influencia negativa en la actividad económica. Además, revelan la presencia de efectos asimétricos: la tasa de crecimiento de la producción aumenta (disminuye) después de un choque negativo (positivo) en el precio del petróleo. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de políticas públicas que mitiguen el efecto de la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero y contribuyan a la estabilidad económica.</p><p align="center"> </p><p align="center">EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES UNCERTAINTY ON MEXICO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>We inquire whether the uncertainty of international oil prices affected Mexico’s economic activity during 1983:2-2017:4. To measure such impact we use a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in-mean process that captures the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our results show that the said uncertainty has a negative influence on Mexico’s economic activity. Further, they reveal the presence of asymmetric effects, as the output growth rate increases (decreases) after a negative (positive) oil price shock. These results highlight the importance of adopting public policies aimed at mitigating the effects of oil market uncertainty and help stabilize economic activity.</p>

scholarly journals Desacoplamento entre as Emissões de CO2 e o PIB

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-53
Author(s):  
Yves Rocha De Salles Lima ◽  
Tatiane Stellet Machado ◽  
Joao Jose de Assis Rangel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
The Us ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The One

The objetive of this work is to analyze the variation of CO2 emissions and GDP per capita throughout the years and identify the possible interaction between them. For this purpose, data from the International Energy Agency was collected on two countries, Brazil and the one with the highest GDP worldwide, the United States. Thus, the results showed that CO2 emissions have been following the country’s economic growth for many years. However, these two indicators have started to decouple in the US in 2007 while in Brazil the same happened in 2011. Furthermore, projections for CO2 emissions are made until 2040, considering 6 probable scenarios. These projections showed that even if the oil price decreases, the emissions will not be significantly affected as long as the economic growth does not decelerate.

scholarly journals Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century’s data

2019 ◽  
Vol 233-234 ◽  
pp. 612-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reneé van Eyden ◽  
Mamothoana Difeto ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Mark E. Wohar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Advanced Economies

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on China’s Economy: An Empirical Investigation Based on VAR Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 524-527 ◽  
pp. 3211-3215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Ping Wang ◽  
Ai Mei Hu ◽  
Zhen Xin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
China’S Economy

China has been in rapid economic growth and industrial structure reform for recent years, and oil, as a most important raw material for industrial production, its price fluctuations have direct impact on energy-intensive industries as well as non-energy-intensive industries and their associated industries’ overall demands. Under the price transmission mechanism, oil price volatility imposes significant influences on economic growth rate, price level, unemployment rate and monetary policy as well. This paper established VAR model among oil prices and economic indicators such as economic growth rate, price level, unemployment rate and monetary policy, and by data processing , stability test and cointegration test, we found that there existed long term stable cointegration relations among these sequences; through Granger Causality test we found that oil price volatility was the Granger cause of the fluctuations of economic growth rate, price level and monetary policy, and meanwhile, changes in economic growth rate is the Granger cause of that in price level. The result of our empirical study indicated that, oil price volatility has a profound influence on China’s economy, and thus, China should improve the establishment of the oil futures market to avoid risks of oil price volatility and secure long-term stability of its economic growth.

VOLATILITY IN OIL PRICES AND MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: AN INVESTIGATION OF REAL OPTIONS

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (S3) ◽  
pp. 379-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Elder ◽  
Apostolos Serletis
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
General Specification

Previous research shows that volatility in oil prices has tended to depress output, as measured by nonresidential investment and GDP. This is interpreted as evidence in support of the theory of real options in capital budgeting decisions, which predicts that uncertainty about, for example, commodity prices will cause firms to delay production and investment. We continue that investigation by analyzing the effect of oil price uncertainty on monthly measures of U.S. firm production related to industries in mining, manufacturing, and utilities. We use a more general specification, an updated sample that includes the increased oil price volatility since 2008, and we control for other nonlinear measures of oil prices. We find additional empirical evidence in support of the predictions of real options theory, and our results indicate that the extreme volatility in oil prices observed in 2008 and 2009 contributed to the severity of the decline in manufacturing activity.

scholarly journals How does gold and oil price volatility affect Turkish financial markets?

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 262-270
Author(s):  
Hakan Öner ◽  
Hande Kılıç Satıcı
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Turkish Lira

Gold and oil price volatilities are thought to have an impact on financial markets. The main aim of this study is to examine the effects of changes in gold and oil prices on Turkish financial markets. For this purpose, the effects of gold and oil price volatilities on nominal US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate, Borsa Istanbul 100 Index and Turkey 10-year bond interest rates are used to represent Turkish financial markets are analysed by Granger Casuality Test. The study comprises daily data over the period of June 1, 2010 - April 30, 2017. According to the results of the analysis, there is no causality relationship from gold and oil prices to Turkish financial markets. On the other hand, it is concluded that there is a one-way causality relationship from BIST100 index to Turkey 10-year bond interest rate and two-way causality relationship between BIST 100 index and nominal US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate.

scholarly journals The influence of demographic factors on the economic development of the Azerbaijan: the interconnection problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Nagiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population. There is a straightforward accounting relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth: Growth Rate of GDP = Growth Rate of Population + Growth Rate of GDP per capita, where GDP per capita is simply GDP divided by population. This article examines the interconnection between economic development and the demographic policy of Azerbaijan. The article analyzes various approaches of the impact of demographic factors on the economic development of a country. The following demographic factors have been identified and described as significant for the economic development: fertility dynamics, mortality dynamics, population size and gender and age structure.

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