Climate predictors for the model description of the climatic ranges of some biological species and their changes in the conditions of the future climate

Abstract One of the major challenges in agriculture is how climate change influences crop production, for different environmental (soil type, topography, groundwater depth, etc.) and agronomic management conditions. Through systems modelling, this study aims to quantify the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat for two common soil types of Eastern Denmark. The agro-ecosystem model DAISY was used to simulate arable, conventional cropping systems (CSs) and the study focused on the three main management factors: cropping sequence, usage of catch crops and cereal straw management. For the case region of Eastern Denmark, the future yield risk of wheat does not necessarily increase under climate change mainly due to lower water stress in the projections; rather, it depends on appropriate management and each CS design. Major management factors affecting the yield risk of wheat were N supply and the amount of organic material added during rotations. If a CS is characterized by straw removal and no catch crop within the rotation, an increased wheat yield risk must be expected in the future. In contrast, more favourable CSs, including catch crops and straw incorporation, maintain their capacity and result in a decreasing yield risk over time. Higher soil organic matter content, higher net nitrogen mineralization rate and higher soil organic nitrogen content were the main underlying causes for these positive effects. Furthermore, the simulation results showed better N recycling and reduced nitrate leaching for the more favourable CSs, which provide benefits for environment-friendly and sustainable crop production.

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A simulation study on the effect of climate change on crop water use and chill unit accumulation

South African Journal of Science ◽

10.17159/sajs.2017/20160119 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 113 (7/8) ◽

Author(s):

Abiodun A. Ogundeji ◽

Henry Jordaan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Use ◽

Irrigation System ◽

Future Climate ◽

Crop Water ◽

Crop Water Use ◽

Chill Unit ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Climate change and its impact on already scarce water resources are of global importance, but even more so for water scarce countries. Apart from the effect of climate change on water supply, the chill unit requirement of deciduous fruit crops is also expected to be affected. Although research on crop water use has been undertaken, researchers have not taken the future climate into consideration. They also have focused on increasing temperatures but failed to relate temperature to chill unit accumulation, especially in South Africa. With a view of helping farmers to adapt to climate change, in this study we provide information that will assist farmers in their decision-making process for adaptation and in the selection of appropriate cultivars of deciduous fruits. Crop water use and chill unit requirements are modelled for the present and future climate. Results show that, irrespective of the irrigation system employed, climate change has led to increases in crop water use. Water use with the drip irrigation system was lower than with sprinkler irrigation as a result of efficiency differences in the irrigation technologies. It was also confirmed that the accumulated chill units will decrease in the future as a consequence of climate change. In order to remain in production, farmers need to adapt to climate change stress by putting in place water resources and crop management plans. Thus, producers must be furnished with a variety of adaptation or management strategies to overcome the impact of climate change.

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Evaluation of Suitability Areas for Maize in China Based on GIS and Its Variation Trend on the Future Climate Condition

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing - Ecosystem Assessment and Fuzzy Systems Management ◽

10.1007/978-3-319-03449-2_27 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 285-299 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Chao-jie Jia ◽

Le-le Wang ◽

Xiao-li Luo ◽

Wei-hong Zhou ◽

Ya-xiong Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Future Climate ◽

Climate Condition ◽

Variation Trend ◽

The Future ◽

Future Climate Condition

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Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli1807.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (8) ◽

pp. 1944-1961 ◽

Cited By ~ 75

Author(s):

Bariş Önol ◽

Fredrick H. M. Semazzi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Temperature Increase ◽

Climate Model ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Model Simulations ◽

The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

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Characterization of European cities’ climate shift – an exploratory study based on climate analogues

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ◽

10.1108/ijccsm-05-2017-0108 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 428-452

Author(s):

Guillaume Rohat ◽

Stéphane Goyette ◽

Johannes Flacke

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Public Health Services ◽

European Continent ◽

Content Type ◽

Climate Shift ◽

European Cities ◽

The Future

Purpose Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100. Findings Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services. Originality/value These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

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An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-368-257-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 368 ◽

pp. 257-262

Author(s):

K. Lin ◽

W. Zhai ◽

S. Huang ◽

Z. Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

South China ◽

Annual Runoff ◽

Future Climate ◽

Weather Data ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Dongjiang River ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

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What Can I Hope about the Earth’s Future Climate? Affective Resources for Overcoming Intergenerational Distance, Kantian and Otherwise

Moral Philosophy and Politics ◽

10.1515/mopp-2014-0020 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Diane Williamson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Political History ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Generations ◽

Theory Of Justice ◽

The World ◽

The Future ◽

Moral Problems

AbstractWhile climate change involves spatial, epistemological, social, and temporal remoteness, each type of distance can be bridged with strategies unique to it that can be borrowed from analogous moral problems. Temporal, or intergenerational, distance may actually be a motivational resource if we look at our natural feelings of hope for the future of the world, via Kant’s theory of political history, and for our children. Kant’s theory of hope also provides some basis for including future generations in a theory of justice.

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