Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Growth with Islamic and non-Islamic Macroeconomic Variable

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth.Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v5i3.5623 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 401

Author(s):

Feri Irawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation. ABSTRACTPenelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.

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Spatial Redistributions of Regional Economic Activity in Central Java (Direct Error Correction Model Causality Approach)

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.23917/jep.v21i1.9587 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Jihad Lukis Panjawa ◽

Bhimo Rizky Samudro

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Spatial Inequality ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Correction Model ◽

Regional Autonomy ◽

Central Java ◽

Observation Period

This study analyzes spatial inequality through a causal relationship between inequality and economic growth within-recidency, between-recidency and overall in Central Java.The analytical tool used is the Direct Error Correction Model causality. This study shows that spatial concentrations throughout the observation period are quite high. In the 2001-2008 period there was an increasing tendency for spatialconcentration, reflecting the decline in the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) share of districts and cities in Central Java. We also obtained similar findings in a number of regions both within and between-recidency. Post-2008, spatial concentration tends to decrease, indicating the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product share. Other findings indicate a one-way relationship shown economic growth towards inequality. Another important contribution is that economic growth in inequality only occurs in the long term. Thus there has been convergence because of the increase ineconomic growth which is able to reduce inequality in all areas of Central Java, including within and between-recidency. This proves that during the implementation of regional autonomy there is a spread effect greater than the backwash effect in Central Java, including within and between-recidency.

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Integration Rice Price And Farmers Welfare With Error Correction Model Analysis

Archives of Business Research ◽

10.14738/abr.79.7118 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (9) ◽

pp. 221-228

Author(s):

Yogi Makbul

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Policy Intervention ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Rice Prices ◽

Support Policy

This research analyzes the short- and long-term influence of rice prices on the welfare of Indonesian farmers using an error correction model. Drawing upon data from Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics, it reveals that rice prices exert significant positive short-run effects and no significant long-run influence on farmers' welfare. These findings extend or refine results from earlier studies that lack the time series perspective of our research. They also support policy intervention by the Indonesian government to increase farmers' welfare and assure food supply.

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ANALISIS PENGARUH GONCANGAN FAKTOR EKSTERNAL TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

Ecosains: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/ecosains.11063357.00 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 25

Author(s):

Monica Wulandari ◽

Hasdi Aimon ◽

Mike Triani

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

External Factors ◽

Least Square ◽

Significant Positive Effect ◽

Correction Model ◽

Positive Effect

The purpose of this research is to see how far the influence of external factors toward the economic growth in Indonesia and also to see any external factors that can decreasing economic growth in short and long term. The method is used in this research is Ordinary Least Square with use Error Correction Model (ECM) test and Cointegration. Based on analysis data was obtained three conclusions were; The first is based on the results of multiple regression, foreign investment and world oil prices and a significant positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia, while the exchange rate and foreign debt and no significant positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia at the 5% significance level. The second is in the short term through the Error Correction Model (ECM) test, the world oil price and foreign direct investment to boost economic growth while exchange rate USD / $ (NTR) and External Debt (ED) can shocks the economic growth in Indonesia. The third is in the long term through cointegration test, the variables included in the model and no significant negative effect on economic growth

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ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Ecogen ◽

10.24036/jmpe.v1i3.4989 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 482

Author(s):

Defrizal Saputra ◽

Hasdi Aimon ◽

Melti Roza Adry

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Error Correction ◽

Foreign Debt ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Descriptive Research ◽

Long Run

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia with variables that effect economic growth, inflation, and foreign interest rates. This type of research is associative descriptive research, where the data used is secondary data from 1970 to 2017 obtained from institutions and related institutions, which are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study initially used the Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to see long-term, and used ECM because it wanted to see short-term at the same time. The findings of this study indicate that economic growth and inflation have a significant effect in the long run, but the interest rates have no significant effect, and in the short term all have a significant effect on foreign debt in Indonesia. Keywords: foreign debt, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and error correction model (ECM)

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PENGARUH NON PERFORMING FINANCING, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO, BEBAN OPERASIONAL PENDAPATAN OPERASIONAL DAN NET IMBALAN TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS (STUDI PADA BANK MAYBANK SYARIAH PERIODE 2012-2019)

Niqosiya: Journal of Economics and Business Research ◽

10.21154/niqosiya.v1i1.108 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 78-93

Author(s):

Lely Awintasari ◽

Maulida Nurhidayati

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Capital Adequacy ◽

Short Term ◽

Return On Assets ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽

Short And Long Term

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of Non Performing Financing (NPF), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Operating Expenses operating income (BOPO) and Net Rewards (NI) ratio on Return On Assets of Maybank Syariah Bank. A bank's Return on Assets (ROA) is a ratio that shows the bank's success in making a profit. If the ROA obtained by a small bank as a result of the bank can suffer losses and hinder the growth of the bank. This research is a type of quantitative research with Error Correction Model method with a significance rate of 5%, with a total of 32 samples in the form of quarterly data published by Bank Maybank Syariah in 2012-2019. The findings in this study are that NPF negatively affects ROA in the short term but NPF has no effect on ROA in the long run. CAR has no effect on ROA in the short term but CAR has a positive effect on ROA in the long run. BOPO in the short and long term negatively affects ROA. NI in the short and long term has no effect on ROA. Simultaneously NPF, CAR, BOPO and NI both short-term and long-term affect ROA simultaneously. The amount of influence exerted in the short term is 89.20% while in the long term it is 88.57%. In order to increase ROA, Maybank Syariah Bank as much as possible to reduce the percentage of NPF and BOPO and can increase the CAR owned. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh rasio kuangan Non Performing Financing (NPF), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Beban Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO) dan Net Imbalan (NI) terhadap Return On Assets Bank Maybank Syariah. Return on Assets (ROA) suatu bank merupakan rasio yang menunjukkan keberhasilan bank dalam menghasilkan keuntungan. Apabila ROA yang diperoleh bank kecil akibatnya bank dapat mengalami kerugian serta menghambat pertumbuhan bank tersebut. Penelitian ini berjenis penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode Error Correction Model dengan tingkat signifikansi 5%, dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 32 yang berupa data triwulan yang dipublikasikan oleh Bank Maybank Syariah tahun 2012-2019. Temuan pada penelitian ini adalah NPF berpengaruh negatif pada ROA dalam jangka pendek tetapi NPF tidak berpengaruh pada ROA dalam jangka panjang. CAR tidak berpengaruh pada ROA pada jangka pendek namun CAR berpengaruh positif terhadap ROA dalam jangka panjang. BOPO dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif pada ROA. NI dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang tidak berpengaruh pada ROA. Secara simultan NPF, CAR, BOPO dan NI baik jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh terhadap ROA secara simultan. Besarnya pengaruh yang diberikan pada jangka pendek adalah 89,20% sedangkan pada jangka panjang sebesar 88,57%. Untuk dapat meningkatkan ROA, Bank Maybank Syariah sebisa mungkin untuk menurunkan persentase NPF dan BOPO serta dapat meningkatkan CAR yang dimiliki.

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Pengaruh Dow Jones Indeks, Strait Time , dan Hang Sheng Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan dengan Pendekatan Eror Correction Model

Jurnal Mandiri ◽

10.33753/mandiri.v3i2.92 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 307-313

Author(s):

Tiar Lina Situngkir

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Stock Index ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Jones Index ◽

Time Index ◽

Strait Time ◽

Short And Long Term

Abstrak Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis pengaruh Dow Jones Index, Strait Times Index dan Hang seng Indeks terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan. Metodologi yang digunakan dalam menganalisa adalah Error Correction Model. Hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa DJI dalam jangka pendek dan panjang berpengaruh positif tidak signifikan. STI dalam jangka pendek dan panjang berpengaruh berpengaruh positif signifikan. HSE dalam jangka pendek dan panjang berpengaruh negatif tidak signifikan. Simpulan secara simultan dalam penelitian ini terbukti paling tidak terdapat satu variabel independen berpengaruh signifikan. Abstract The objective of this research is to analyse whether the Dow Jones Index, Strait Times Index and Hang Seng Index, each has a significant effect on Composite Stock Index. The methodology of analysis of this research is the Error Correction Model. The result of research found that in the short term Dow Jones has no significant while in the long term it has a positive and significant impact on Indonesian Composite Stock Index. Summary In the short and long term Strait Time Index has a positive and significant impact. In short and long term Hang Seng Index has no significant on Composite Stock Index.

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Exploring Exports and Economic Growth Causality in Algeria

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies ◽

10.22610/jebs.v2i3.226 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 92-96 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Abdus Samad

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Error Correction ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Growth And Development ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Correction Model ◽

Causality Relationship ◽

The Government ◽

Export Industries ◽

Policy Prescription

This paper investigates the causality relationship between economic growth, exports and imports in Algeria using Cointegration, Error Correction Model, and VEC Granger causality/Wald Exogeniety tests. The paper finds that economic growth in Algeria is linked to export industries and import is linked to economic growth. In other words, the growth in export sectors Granger causes economic growth which, in turn, promotes the growth of imports in Algeria. The paper suggests policy prescription that the government of Algeria should put emphasis on promoting growth and development of export industries by ensuring increased productivity in such sector.

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Determinants of Money Demand in Algeria: An Empirical Study Using Cointegration and Error Correction Model

Modern Applied Science ◽

10.5539/mas.v13n10p78 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

pp. 78

Author(s):

Mohammed Djebbouri ◽

Abdelkarim Mansouri ◽

Abderrahmane Tahi

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Money Demand ◽

Demand Function ◽

Real Income ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Cointegration Tests ◽

Short And Long Term

This investigation aims primarily to estimate the determinants of the demand function of money in its broad sense, in Algeria during the period 1980-2017. To accomplish this study, Cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) have been used. Thus, these tests proved the no stationary of time series which led us to apply the cointegration tests, so in the end we estimate the model with error correction. The results of this estimation show that the importance of determinants of money demand in the short and long term are ordered as follows: real income, the velocity of circulation of money (VM2) in the short and long term, the long-term exchange rate; in the short term its importance diminishes in favor of inflation, which has a decisive effect on the demand for money in the short term. The findings reveal that the money demand function is insensitive to the interest rate, which explains why speculation is generally regarded as a less important reason in Algeria.

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DETERMINAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA PINJAMAN DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1983 – 2002

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan ◽

10.21098/bemp.v7i3.118 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Taufik Kurniawan

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Money Supply ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Correction Model ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Yearly Data

This paper analyzes the role of international interest rate, money supply, inflation, SBI rate (Sertifikat Bank Indonesia) and GDP on the lending rate. We use the Error Correction Model on Indonesian yearly data from 1983 – 2002 and confirm the significant of these explanatory variables as the determinant of short and long term credit lending rates.These findings conforms the necessity for Bank Indonesia as monetary authority to take into account the external factors and support the integration of domestic and foreign financial market.Keyword: Error Correction Model, Interest rate, Financial market, Money Supply, Lending rate.JEL: C22, E44, E51

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