scholarly journals Exploring Exports and Economic Growth Causality in Algeria

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 92-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdus Samad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Government ◽  
Export Industries ◽  
Policy Prescription

This paper investigates the causality relationship between economic growth, exports and imports in Algeria using Cointegration, Error Correction Model, and VEC Granger causality/Wald Exogeniety tests. The paper finds that economic growth in Algeria is linked to export industries and import is linked to economic growth. In other words, the growth in export sectors Granger causes economic growth which, in turn, promotes the growth of imports in Algeria. The paper suggests policy prescription that the government of Algeria should put emphasis on promoting growth and development of export industries by ensuring increased productivity in such sector.

scholarly journals Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Growth with Islamic and non-Islamic Macroeconomic Variable

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-128
Author(s):  
Eba Ismi Alifah ◽  
Anton Bawono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth.Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi. 

scholarly journals The Impact of Bank Credits on the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria (1980-2015)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Otubu, Osaretin Paul
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examined the impact of bank credits on the manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015. The broad objective of the study is to examine the impact of bank credits on the manufacturing sector in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The econometrics methods of ordinary least squares, co-integration, error correction model and granger causality test were used as the main analytical tools. From the estimated error correction model, we found that bank credits to the manufacturing sector had a positive impact on the manufacturing sector output. Government expenditure, gross capital formation and tertiary school enrolment conforms to apriori expectation. A bank credit was found to be necessary for influencing or boosting manufacturing sector output. In addition, the granger causality result reveals that there is causal relationship between bank credits and manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the cost of borrowing should be reduced, and relevant authorities should maintain a sustained effort aimed at making sure that banks strictly comply with the credit concession granted to the manufacturing sector, and the government should provide social amenities and conducive environment for industrialization.

scholarly journals Spatial Redistributions of Regional Economic Activity in Central Java (Direct Error Correction Model Causality Approach)

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jihad Lukis Panjawa ◽  
Bhimo Rizky Samudro
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Spatial Inequality ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Regional Autonomy ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Observation Period

This study analyzes spatial inequality through a causal relationship between inequality and economic growth within-recidency, between-recidency and overall in Central Java.The analytical tool used is the Direct Error Correction Model causality. This study shows that spatial concentrations throughout the observation period are quite high. In the 2001-2008 period there was an increasing tendency for spatialconcentration, reflecting the decline in the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) share of districts and cities in Central Java. We also obtained similar findings in a number of regions both within and between-recidency. Post-2008, spatial concentration tends to decrease, indicating the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product share. Other findings indicate a one-way relationship shown economic growth towards inequality. Another important contribution is that economic growth in inequality only occurs in the long term. Thus there has been convergence because of the increase ineconomic growth which is able to reduce inequality in all areas of Central Java, including within and between-recidency. This proves that during the implementation of regional autonomy there is a spread effect greater than the backwash effect in Central Java, including within and between-recidency.

scholarly journals Impact of conventional banking financing and Islamic banking financing on economic growth 2008-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1272
Author(s):  
Hasymi Nur Baehaqy ◽  
Eko Fajar Cahyono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

This research aims to know Impact of conventional banking financing and Islamic banking financing on economic growth 2008-2018. In this study the authors used a saturated sampling technique found in Non-Probability Sampling. The analysis technique used is VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). Based on the results of the study indicate that there is a one-way relationship on several variables, namely Conventional Banking Financing to GDP and Conventional Banking Financing to Islamic Banking Financing, In the long run, Conventional Banking Financing has a positive and significant relationship to GDP, whereas Islamic Banking Financing has a negative and significant relationship to GDP.Keywords: Banking Financing, Economic Growth, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), VECM (Vector Error Correction Model)

scholarly journals The Relationship between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nepal: A Co-integration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-36
Author(s):  
Gautam Maharjan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The main objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal. The 43 years' annual time series data from 1974/75 to 2016/17 of GDP, tax revenue and nontax revenue have been used to test the causal relationship of the variables. A unit root test, Engle-Granger’s co-integration and Error Correction Model have been applied for the data analysis. The variables have been found stationary after first differencing I(1) when Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is employed. From Engel-Granger test, it has been found that the variables are co-integrated. The short-term coefficients are not significant, however error correction term (ECT) is significant and contains a negative sign in the error correction model (ECM). It validates the ECM model. The ECT has shown that the annual speed of adjustment from disequilibrium to equilibrium is 34.3 percent. So far as the relationship is concerned, there is a long run relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal controlling the non-tax revenue. The impact of tax revenue on economic growth could be a good impetus for the policy maker and planner to increase the collection of revenue for the country.

Exports, financial development and economic growth in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the relationship between exports, financial development and economic growth in case of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction model are applied to test the long-run and short-run relationships, respectively. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by the vector error correction model Granger causality test and robustness of causality analysis is tested by applying innovative accounting approach. Findings – The analysis confirms cointegration for the long-run relation between exports, economic growth and financial development in case of Pakistan. The results indicate that economic growth and financial development spur exports growth in Pakistan. The causality analysis reveals feedback hypothesis that exists between financial development and economic growth, financial development and exports, and, exports and economic growth. Originality/value – This study provides new insights for policy makers to sustain exports growth by stimulating economic growth and developing financial sector in Pakistan.

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