ANALISIS PENGARUH GONCANGAN FAKTOR EKSTERNAL TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

The purpose of this research is to see how far the influence of external factors toward the economic growth in Indonesia and also to see any external factors that can decreasing economic growth in short and long term. The method is used in this research is Ordinary Least Square with use Error Correction Model (ECM) test and Cointegration. Based on analysis data was obtained three conclusions were; The first is based on the results of multiple regression, foreign investment and world oil prices and a significant positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia, while the exchange rate and foreign debt and no significant positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia at the 5% significance level. The second is in the short term through the Error Correction Model (ECM) test, the world oil price and foreign direct investment to boost economic growth while exchange rate USD / $ (NTR) and External Debt (ED) can shocks the economic growth in Indonesia. The third is in the long term through cointegration test, the variables included in the model and no significant negative effect on economic growth

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PARIWISATA PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP EKONOMI : ANALISIS KAJIAN ASAL KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA

Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan ◽

10.20473/jiet.v4i1.10663 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Kdwi wahyu Ksamawan ◽

Ghozali Maskie ◽

David Kaluge

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Middle East ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

American Continent ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Tourism Sector ◽

Positive Effect

The influence of foreign tourist arrivals based on the region of origin on economic growth was analyzed in this study, using GDP data as a proxy for economic growth, the number of tourist visits, the Consumer Price Index, and the monthly period of exchange for 2007-2016. This study uses secondary data with the Error Correction Model (ECM) regression method with short and long-term calculations. The results showed that the variable number of tourist visits had an effect on GDP in the continents of Asia, Europe, Middle-East, and Oceania while in the long run in all continents except America. The exchange rate variable in the short term has a negative effect on GDP in the American Continent and the Middle East, while in the long run, the exchange rate variable has a positive effect on GDP in the Asean continent and Europe. The CPI variable only has a positive effect on GDP in the long run for all continents except America. So that it can be concluded that not all continents have a positive impact on GDP, one of which is the American continent, so in order to optimize and increase economic growth, it should be stressed that the cost of developing the tourism sector in America should be allocated more proportionally or diverted to continents of Asia, ASEAN, Oceania, Europe and the Middle East.of developing the tourism sector in America should be allocated more proportionally or diverted to continents of Asia, ASEAN, Oceania, Europe and the Middle East. Keywords: Error Correction Model,GDP, Tourism

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Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah dalam Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Tahun 2010-2018

Journal of Islamic Economics (JoIE) ◽

10.21154/joie.v1i1.3081 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Nur Afriyanti ◽

Luhur Prasetiyo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Exchange Rate

Artikel ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah, baik jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Perubahan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap mata uang Dollar Amerika Serikat dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor. Di antara faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar adalah kenaikan harga umum (inflasi) dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis data Error Correction Model (ECM) dan teknik pemilihan sampel menggunakan sampel jenuh dari populasi yang berjumlah 36. Sampel dalam penelitian ini yaitu data time series/triwulan inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan nilai tukar dengan periode pengamatan selama 9 tahun yaitu tahun 2010-2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang nilai tukar dipengaruhi oleh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek nilai tukar tidak dipengaruhi oleh variabel inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Secara bersama-sama variabel inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel nilai tukar.The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of inflation dan economic growth on Rupiah exchange rate, both long-term and short-term. The movement of Rupiah exchange rate to US Dollar is influenced by many factors. Among the factors affecting the exchange rate are general price increases (inflation) and economic growth. This research uses Error Correction Model (ECM) for data analysis. The population in this study amounted to 36. The sample selection technique is saturated sample. The sample in this research is time series data on quarterly inflation, economic growth and the exchange rate in the period of 9 years, namely 2010-2018. The results show that in the long-term the exchange rate is influenced by inflation and economic growth. Whereas in the short-term the exchange rate is not influenced by inflation and economic growth variables. Furthermore, inflation and economic growth variables have a significant effect on the exchange rate variable.

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Spatial Redistributions of Regional Economic Activity in Central Java (Direct Error Correction Model Causality Approach)

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.23917/jep.v21i1.9587 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Jihad Lukis Panjawa ◽

Bhimo Rizky Samudro

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Spatial Inequality ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Correction Model ◽

Regional Autonomy ◽

Central Java ◽

Observation Period

This study analyzes spatial inequality through a causal relationship between inequality and economic growth within-recidency, between-recidency and overall in Central Java.The analytical tool used is the Direct Error Correction Model causality. This study shows that spatial concentrations throughout the observation period are quite high. In the 2001-2008 period there was an increasing tendency for spatialconcentration, reflecting the decline in the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) share of districts and cities in Central Java. We also obtained similar findings in a number of regions both within and between-recidency. Post-2008, spatial concentration tends to decrease, indicating the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product share. Other findings indicate a one-way relationship shown economic growth towards inequality. Another important contribution is that economic growth in inequality only occurs in the long term. Thus there has been convergence because of the increase ineconomic growth which is able to reduce inequality in all areas of Central Java, including within and between-recidency. This proves that during the implementation of regional autonomy there is a spread effect greater than the backwash effect in Central Java, including within and between-recidency.

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ANALISIS HARGA SAHAM INDEX KOMPAS 100 DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan ◽

10.33005/jdep.v4i1.201 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 406-414

Author(s):

Amir Hamzah

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Stock Prices ◽

Stock Price ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Positive Effect

The purpose of this research is to analyze the short term and long term relationship between ROI, EPS, PER ,inflation, SBI, exchange rate,and GDP on Stock Price. The data in this research is company financial statements which included Compas 100 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. statistical analysis in this research used stasionarity test, The Classical Assumptions Test, Cointegration Test, Error Correction Model Test. This research found that partially ROI, EPS, PER variables a positive effect on stock prices in the short term and long term, KURS and SBI a positive effect on stock prices in the short term, but there is no effect in the long term, inflation and GDP do not affect the stock price both in the short term and long term. Simultaneously affected the stock prices significantly affect on stock price both in the short term and long term.

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Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Growth with Islamic and non-Islamic Macroeconomic Variable

Economica Jurnal Ekonomi Islam ◽

10.21580/economica.2020.11.1.4907 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 107-128

Author(s):

Eba Ismi Alifah ◽

Anton Bawono

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Error Correction ◽

Foreign Debt ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Correction Model ◽

Islamic Bank ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Government ◽

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth.Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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THE EFFECT OF MUDHARABAH, MUSHARAKA, AND IJARAH FINANCING TO RETURN ON EQUITY IN BANK BRI SHARIA PERIOD 2016-2020

Niqosiya: Journal of Economics and Business Research ◽

10.21154/niqosiya.v1i2.413 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 268-285

Author(s):

Filia Fransiska ◽

Asmak Ab Rahman ◽

Shinta Maharani

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Quantitative Methods ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Significant Positive Effect ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Return On Equity ◽

Positive Effect

Aim of this research is the phenomenon on the 2016-2020 financial statements of BRI Syariah Bank. It shows that the increase in income is not always followed by an increase in Return On Equity (ROE) at BRI Syariah Bank, vice versa. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of mudharabah, musyaraka, and ijarah both in the long and short term on Return On Equity (ROE). The method of this study used quantitative methods, and used secondary data. The population and sample used in this study are BRI Syariah Bank monthly reports, including mudharabah, musyaraka, and ijarah in the 2016-2020 period. The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) with the Eviews program. The results in this study indicate that in the short term and long term, mudharabah has a significant positive effect on return on equity (ROE), the short term results show that the t-statistic (t-count) is greater than the t-critical (2.833045>2.002247). . Meanwhile, the results of the long-term test show that the t-statistic (t-count) is more significant than t-critical (2.467613>2.002247). Musharaka in the short term and long term affects the return on equity (ROE). The short-term results show that the t-statistic (t-count) is greater than the t-critical (2.909601>2.002247). Meanwhile, the results of the long-term test show that the t-statistic (t-count) is more significant than t-critical (2.733504>2.002247). While ijarah in the short term and the long term does not affect the return on equity (ROE), the short term results show that the t-statistic (t-count) is greater than the t-critical (1.330407<2.002247). Meanwhile, the results of the long-term test show that the t-statistic (t-count) is more significant than t-critical (1.256261<2.002247). Simultaneously, in the short term, mudharabah, Musharaka, and ijarah have a significant and positive effect on the return on equity (ROE) of 23.8249%. While in the long term, it has a significant effect of 28.3164%.

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Pengaruh Exchange Rate dan GDP Terhadap Ekspor dan Impor Indonesia

Develop ◽

10.25139/dev.v1i1.69 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Lumadya Adi

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Least Square ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Ordinary Least Square ◽

The Impact

The purpose this research is to examine the impact of Exchange Rate and GDP on Indonesia’s Export and Import. Tools analysis is Dynamics Ordinary Least Square (DOLS): Error Correction Model (ECM). The result are: 1. GDP influence positif and significant in short-term and longterm relationship on Indonesia’s impor; 2. Exchange Rate influence positif and significant in short-term and longterm relationship on Indonesia’s impor; 3. GDP influence positif and significant in short-term but negatif and significant in longterm relationship on Indonesia’s export; 4. Exchange rate influence positif and significant in short-term but negatif and significant in longterm relationship on Indonesia’s export.Keywords: error correction model, gdp, exchange rate, impor, ekspor

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INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v5i3.5623 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 401

Author(s):

Feri Irawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation. ABSTRACTPenelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.

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PENGARUH E-COMMERCE, INFLASI, DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/jkep.v2i1.8902 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 151

Author(s):

Widya Ayu Lastri ◽

Ali Anis

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Term Effect ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Descriptive Research ◽

Long Term Effect

This Study aims to examine and to analisys the influencing factors on economic growth in Indonesia, which the variables are e-commerce, inflation and exchange rate. This study is associative descriptive research, which using secondary data from 2011Q1-2018Q4 that obtained from relevant institutions and agencies. Analisys using Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study using Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to know the long term effect and ECM to know the short term effect at one blow.The study found that in the long term, e-commerce and exchange rate have a significant effect and inflation have not a significant effect. And in the short term, e-commerce have a positive and significant effect, while inflation and exchange rate have a negative and not significant.

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Analisis Pengaruh Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Nilai Tukar dan Tingkat Imbalan SBIS Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Periode Januari 2009-Desember 2015

Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan ◽

10.20473/vol4iss201711pp928-936 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (11) ◽

pp. 928

Author(s):

Tania Megasari ◽

Tika Widiastuti

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Quantitative Research ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Return Rate ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Exchange Rate

The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of the exchange rate, and the return rate of Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS) on inflation in Indonesia during the period January 2009 to December 2015. The approach used in this research is quantitative research using Error Correction Model (ECM) by Eviews program 8. The data used are secondary data from the official website of Bank Indonesia. The results showed that the Exchange rate and the rate of SBIS have a significant and positive correlation against inflation in the short term and long term during the period January 2009 to December 2015.

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