A joint-probabilistic programming method for water resources optimal allocation under uncertainty: a case study in the Beiyun River, China

Abstract In recent years, the lower reaches of the Beiyun River have suffered from growing water resource shortages due to the reduction of upstream water resource and drying up of the stream channel. More reasonable and scientifically based water allocation plans should be developed and implemented; however, uncertainties exist regarding the determination of water supply availability and spillage of extra water. To assess and manage regional water shortage, the combined effects of multiple water supply sources as well as the joint probability of typical events should be considered. The joint probability of water supply, considering upstream and local water supplies, was estimated through the copula functions. A multi-objective optimization model was then developed and solved by improved genetic algorithms to plan water resources allocation within a multi-source environment containing multiple competitive users. The framework is demonstrated, and represents a range of different water supply scenarios in terms of different probabilities of occurrence and constraint violations. The results showed that water allocation was greatly influenced by uncertainties, especially in upstream-local water supply. In addition, violating water-allocation constraint posed an extra uncertainty. This study facilitates the proposition of adaption allocation plans for uncertain environments, aiming to balance the shortage, economy, and reliability.

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VALUATION OF WATER AND SCARCE WATER RESOURCES OPTIMAL ALLOCATION AT THE RIVER BASIN LEVEL A CASE STUDY IN DOWNSTREAM AREA OF THE DONG NAI RIVER SYSTEM BASIN

Science and Technology Development Journal ◽

10.32508/stdj.v15i4.1826 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 87-101

Author(s):

Hung Thanh Nguyen

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Use ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Water Allocation ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

River System ◽

Water Shortage ◽

True Value ◽

Scarce Water ◽

Downstream Area

Water scarcity is an ongoing reality in many river basins due to the need for increasingly water use associated with water pollution and climate change. Faced with this situation, it is necessary to know the true value of scarce water resources to contribute to effective water allocation. In this paper, a model to optimize the allocation of water resources with the constraints in terms of hydrology has developed based on the principle of balance in marginal net benefits of water use across sectors, and test applied to solve the optimal water sources allocation in the downstream area of the Dong Nai river system basin with many different water scarcity scenarios. The results show that the model allows simulating relatively good optimized water allocation for the competitive water use demands in the cases of shortage of water, and also allows determining the balanced margin net values/ benefits of raw water corresponding to the different levels of water shortage.

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The Development and Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in Zhidan Country Energy Chemical Industrial Park

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.260-261.1120 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 260-261 ◽

pp. 1120-1124

Author(s):

Peng Kang Jin ◽

Lei Zhang ◽

Xian Bao Wang ◽

Yong Ning Feng

Keyword(s):

Surface Water ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Underground Water ◽

Industrial Park ◽

Total Water ◽

Recycled Water ◽

Chemical Industrial Park

Focusing on the water shortage and water stress during the construction period of Zhidan energy chemical industrial park, the optimal allocation of water resources in Zhidan was conducted, in order to guarantee the water demand of the energy chemical industrial park. The optimal allocation of water resources is based on the advanced investigating and analyzing on the potential of four kinds of available water in this industrial park (surface water, underground water, the rain-flood and the recycled water). As well as the principle of optimal allocation is to reduce the conventional water exploitation and to increase the unconventional water resource utilization. The study result shows, the recent total water resources in this park is 12.39×104 m3/d and the forward total water resources is 13.39×104 m3/d, which can meet the requirement of both recent and forward water consumption for this park(4.40×104 m3/d and 5.16×104 m3/d). The optimal allocation of water resources program is to achieve the goal of reaching a recent water supply of 4.5×104 m3/d, among which the underground water is 0.95×104 m3/d, the surface water is 3.0×104 m3/d, the recycled water is 0.5×104 m3/d, the rain-flood water is 0.05×104 m3/d. While for the forward water supply of these 4 available kinds of water are 1.45×104 m3/d, 3.0×104 m3/d, 1.0×104 m3/d, 0.05×104 m3/d respectively with a total supply of 5.5 ×104 m3/d.

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Optimal Allocation of Water Resources from the “Wide-Mild Water Shortage” Perspective

Water ◽

10.3390/w10101289 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 1289 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Huaxiang He ◽

Mingwan Yin ◽

Aiqi Chen ◽

Junqiu Liu ◽

Xinmin Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Marginal Utility ◽

Piecewise Linear ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Improved Method ◽

Water Users ◽

The Right

A major objective of the optimization of water resources allocation is to ensure the supply an adequate amount of water to users at the right time and maximize the utilization of water resources. However, in case of insufficient water supply, water shortage is likely to occur intensively for specific water users or in specific periods, referred to as a “concentrated water shortage”. The risk of a concentrated water shortage should be shared across a wider range of users and periods, so that it would have a less severe impact on each calculation unit in each period, which we refer to as the “wide-mild water shortage”. In this study, the nonlinear weight of the water supply objective function can be converted into a piecewise linear weight based on the law of diminishing marginal utility, making it possible to reduce or even eliminate the concentrated water shortage and thus making the allocation of water resources more reasonable. The case study in the Nen River basin in northeast China shows that the improved method results in a significant increase in water shortage units but a significant reduction in water shortage range. As a consequence, water shortage is more uniformly distributed from April to June, which contributes to solving the concentrated water shortage problem in May. However, it should be noted that to what extent the wide-mild water shortage can be realized depends not only on the marginal utility of water demand, but also on the available water supply and the regulative capacity of water supply projects. In spite of this, the improved method enables water to be supplied more suitably for users at the appropriate time, which contributes to improving the utilization of water resources and helping decision-makers better address the problem of concentrated water shortage.

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Research on Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Large-Scale System Decomposition and Coordination Model

10.3233/atde210193 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Zhuoran Luo ◽

Jiahong Liu ◽

Weiwei Shao ◽

Yongxiang Zhang ◽

Ruitao Jia

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Large Scale ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Water Diversion ◽

Allocation Model ◽

System Decomposition ◽

Optimal Allocation Model ◽

Wei River

The construction of water resources optimal allocation model is the premise and foundation of solving and evaluating the optimal allocation model of water resources. The allocation of water resources includes not only the simple allocation of water resources, but also the protection of water resources and the analysis of the relationship between water supply and demand. Aiming at the problem of water shortage in the receiving area of water diversion from Hanjiang River to Weihe River, the large-scale system decomposition and coordination algorithm is used to optimally allocate the water use departments of each district of the water diversion area from Han to Wei River in Shaanxi Province, and establish the water diversion project from Han to Wei River. Optimal allocation model of water resources in the water receiving area. The results show that: in the 2030 planning level, the water supply of key cities, Xixian new district, medium/small cities, and industrial parks were 153.57, 368.16, 632.04, and 208.68 million m3, respectively, and the corresponding water shortage rate was 2.8%, 5.6%, 8.4%, 11.2%. The water supply sequence has a lower water shortage rate than the previous one, and the water shortage rate of the domestic water sector in key cities is only 1.2%. From the water shortage situation of various water departments in 2030, it can basically meet the water shortage of water receiving objects and effectively improve the water shortage in water receiving areas.

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Mitigate water shortage by improving hydropower generation strategy of the cascade reservoir system in the Be River Basin, Vietnam

Water Science & Technology Water Supply ◽

10.2166/ws.2020.220 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (8) ◽

pp. 3216-3232

Author(s):

Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh ◽

Frederick N.-F. Chou

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Resources Management ◽

Water Allocation ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Water Shortages ◽

Resources Management ◽

Reservoir System

Abstract To meet increasing water consumption with limited water resources, management approaches that transfer water between purposes must be improved for sustainable development. This entails an urgent requirement for appropriate water resources management within water–energy interaction if severe water shortage occurs occasionally. This study evaluates hydropower generation policies of a cascade reservoir system in the Be River Basin in terms of security of water supply and energy production. The Generalized Water Allocation Simulation Model (GWASIM) was applied to simulate the water use of a complex system of hydropower generation and water supply. Two water allocation scenarios and six alternatives defined by varying monthly generating hours were modeled and compared. The results demonstrate that a compromise between hydropower generation and water supply can be negotiated to reduce the severity of water shortages. Different monthly hours of hydropower generation among alternatives show an effect on improving power production and reliable water supply. This study provides overall insight into the performance of a multi-purpose cascade reservoir system. It will provide a foundation for improving future study of reservoir operations in meeting the increasing demands of water and energy in Vietnam.

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Optimal allocation model of the water resources in Harbin under representative concentration pathway scenarios

Water Science & Technology Water Supply ◽

10.2166/ws.2020.163 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (7) ◽

pp. 2903-2914

Author(s):

Fanxiang Meng ◽

Linqi Li ◽

Tianxiao Li ◽

Qiang Fu

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Resource ◽

Water Conservation ◽

Distribution Systems ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Sewage Treatment ◽

Economic Benefits ◽

Chance Constrained Programming ◽

Allocation Model

Abstract Water conservation is a strategic choice for sustainable societal development. Rational planning and allocation of water resources is an effective way to improve the efficiency of water resource utilization. Taking Harbin as an example, this paper constructs a linear fractional programming model based on chance-constrained programming. The model can reflect the randomness of water inflow under different climatic conditions while taking into account the interests of different decision makers at the upper and lower levels and the two contradictory objectives of maximizing economic benefits and minimizing water demands to improve water distribution efficiency and reduce the complexity of water resource distribution systems. The results showed that under the three climatic scenarios of RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, the agricultural water supply accounted for 90.04%, 87.66%, and 84.15% of the total regional water supply, respectively. In the process of building the model, considering the importance of sewage treatment in water safety evaluations, the cost of sewage treatment is included in the upper-level benefits of the model. The sustainable development of water resources should be guaranteed while rationally allocating water resources and pursuing economic benefits.

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Study on the Necessity of Small Inter-Basion Transfers Project

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.524-527.2731 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 524-527 ◽

pp. 2731-2734

Author(s):

Chen Xia Gu

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Resource ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Water Transfer ◽

Basin Water ◽

Water Supply And Demand

As socio-economic is developing rapidly, the problems between water resource supply and demand is prominent. Small inter-basin water transfer is gradually increasing in order to solve water shortage. In this paper, the development position of regional socio-economic, the potential of water resources, water supply and demand balance are discussed, the necessity of inter-basin transfers project is studied and discussed comprehensively, the conclusion is authentic, and the method of this paper has reference for similar project.

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System Dynamics-Multiple Objective Optimization Model for Water Resource Management: A Case Study in Jiaxing City, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w13050671 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 671

Author(s):

Xiaoying Zhou ◽

Feier Wang ◽

Kuan Huang ◽

Huichun Zhang ◽

Jie Yu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Resource Management ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Water Resource ◽

Water Allocation ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Multiple Objective ◽

Multiple Objective Optimization ◽

Model Framework

Predicting and allocating water resources have become important tasks in water resource management. System dynamics and optimal planning models are widely applied to solve individual problems, but are seldom combined in studies. In this work, we developed a framework involving a system dynamics-multiple objective optimization (SD-MOO) model, which integrated the functions of simulation, policy control, and water allocation, and applied it to a case study of water management in Jiaxing, China to demonstrate the modeling. The predicted results of the case study showed that water shortage would not occur at a high-inflow level during 2018–2035 but would appear at mid- and low-inflow levels in 2025 and 2022, respectively. After we made dynamic adjustments to water use efficiency, economic growth, population growth, and water resource utilization, the predicted water shortage rates decreased by approximately 69–70% at the mid- and low-inflow levels in 2025 and 2035 compared to the scenarios without any adjustment strategies. Water allocation schemes obtained from the “prediction + dynamic regulation + optimization” framework were competitive in terms of social, economic and environmental benefits and flexibly satisfied the water demands. The case study demonstrated that the SD-MOO model framework could be an effective tool in achieving sustainable water resource management.

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An Optimal Water Resource Allocation Mechanism Based on Ex-Post Verification and Reward in Huangbai River

Water ◽

10.3390/w13111588 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 1588

Author(s):

Hui Zhang ◽

Jiaying Li

Keyword(s):

Resource Allocation ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Resource ◽

Water Allocation ◽

Allocation Rule ◽

Allocation Efficiency ◽

Water Resource Allocation ◽

Water Users ◽

Ex Post ◽

Demand Information

Under the current administrative system (AS) in China, the water resources governor allocates limited water resources to several users to realize the utility of water resources, leading to a principal–agent problem. The governor (referred to as the principal and she) wishes to maximize water resource allocation efficiency, while each user (referred to as the agent and he) only wishes to maximize his own quota. In addition, the governor cannot know water demand information exactly since it is the water users’ private information. Hence, this paper builds an ex ante improved bankruptcy allocation rule and an ex post verification and reward mechanism to improve water allocation efficiency from the governor’s perspective. In this mechanism, the governor allocates water among users based on an improved bankruptcy rule before the water is used up, verifies users’ information by various approaches, and poses a negative reward to them if their information is found to be false after the water is used up. Then, this mechanism is applied to Huangbai River Basin. Research results show that the improved allocation rule could motivate users to report demand information more honestly, and ex post verification could motivate water users to further report their true information, which, as a result, could improve the water allocation efficiency. Furthermore, this mechanism could be applied to the allocation of other resources.

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Assessment of water resource security in karst area of Guizhou Province, China

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-87066-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Liying Liu

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Resource ◽

Bp Neural Network ◽

Back Propagation ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Guizhou Province ◽

Karst Area ◽

Water Resource Security ◽

Resource Security

AbstractThis paper presents the assessment of water resource security in the Guizhou karst area, China. A mean impact value and back-propagation (MIV-BP) neural network was used to understand the influencing factors. Thirty-one indices involving five aspects, the water quality subsystem, water quantity subsystem, engineering water shortage subsystem, water resource vulnerability subsystem, and water resource carrying capacity subsystem, were selected to establish an evaluation index of water resource security. In addition, a genetic algorithm and back-propagation (GA-BP) neural network was constructed to assess the water resource security of Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2015. The results show that water resource security in Guizhou was at a moderate warning level from 2001 to 2006 and a critical safety level from 2007 to 2015, except in 2011 when a moderate warning level was reached. For protection and management of water resources in a karst area, the modes of development and utilization of water resources must be thoroughly understood, along with the impact of engineering water shortage. These results are a meaningful contribution to regional ecological restoration and socio-economic development and can promote better practices for future planning.

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