Water scarcity will boost Turkey-Syria-Iraq tensions

Significance Large-scale water capture in Turkish dams upstream has caused long-term shortages elsewhere in the Tigris and Euphrates river basin, notably eastern Syria and southern Iraq. Competition for water resources intersects with existing ethno-religious tensions across the riparian countries. Impacts The political fragility of the Syrian and Iraqi states will be exacerbated by rising conflict over scarce water resources. Iran may seek to intervene on behalf of Shia Arabs in the Iraqi south. Turkey may experience future internal conflict with the Kurdish minority on whose land new dams have been constructed. Regional water scarcity could drive further migration to Europe.

Effective Management of Scarce Water Resources: From Antiquity to Today and into the Future

Water is a critically important element of human life. The best practice of effective water management comes from ancient civilizations that, despite their technologies and practices, were unable to prevent collapse from water scarcity. In the 21st century, in an era of climate change, pollution or population explosion, cities are looking for innovative ways to effectively manage scarce resources for future generations. Which elements should cities of the future follow to avoid water collapse? The following article aims to identify the key elements of effective management and to represent them graphically in the form of a recommended model, which will be verified in the future in Slovakia. The article uses case analysis of best past and current practices, comparison and summarization to identify the elements, creativity, and logic in the development of the model, including induction and deduction. The article serves as a basis for fellow researchers (analyses carried out) and strategic urban management (effective urban water management). The main finding of the article is that ecological change puts pressure on social elements and therefore it is necessary to focus on the area of strategic management. Cities should not only know how to manage resource abundance or short-term scarcity, but also long-term scarcity. They should use elements of trust, awareness and continuous improvement through modern monitoring technologies (UAVs, sensors) and prediction (machine learning). This is the only way to generate water sustainability in the urban concept of the future.

Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?

Land and climate are strongly connected through multiple interface processes and climate change may lead to significant changes in land use. In this study, high-resolution observational gridded datasets are used to assess modifications in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems, from 1950–1979 to 1990–2019 in Portugal. A compound bioclimatic-shift exposure index (BSEI) is also defined to identify the most exposed regions to recent climatic changes. The temporal evolution of land cover with vineyards and olive groves between 1990 and 2018, as well as correlations with areas with bioclimatic shifts, are analyzed. Results show an increase of CSa Warm Mediterranean climate with hot summer of 18.1%, followed by a decrease in CSb (warm summer) climate of −17.8%. The WBCS Temperate areas also reveal a decrease of −5.11%. Arid and semi-arid ombrotypes areas increased, conversely humid to sub-humid ombrotypes decreased. Thermotypic horizons depict a shift towards warmer classes. BSEI highlights the most significant shifts in northwestern Portugal. Vineyards have been displaced towards regions that are either the coolest/humid, in the northwest, or the warmest/driest, in the south. For oliviculture, the general trend for a relative shift towards cool/humid areas suggests an attempt of the sector to adapt, despite the cover area growth in the south. As vineyards and olive groves in southern Portugal are commonly irrigated, options for the intensification of these crops in this region may threaten the already scarce water resources and challenge the future sustainability of these sectors.

Analysis of the need for soil moisture, salinity and temperature sensing in agriculture: a case study in Poland

Efficient use of scarce water resources is both a marketing objective and an environmental obligation for sustainable agriculture. In modern agricultural production, which is intensive and should at the same time be environmentally friendly, there is a need to monitor soil moisture, salinity and temperature. The aim of the study was to determine the demand of producers of agricultural and horticultural plants for equipment and systems for monitoring soil properties at an individual farm level in regions with highly developed agriculture. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 1087 respondents, also direct interviews in Poland were undertaken. According to the producers' responses, it is important to know soil moisture, salinity and temperature, although currently only about 4% of the surveyed farmers have the equipment to evaluate these soil parameters. In their view cost is not the most important obstacle to the purchase of the necessary probes. More important is that the devices should be easy to install and use, and have an easy to use application for data collection, processing and transfer. The current market does not offer solutions that meet these producers expectations. The demand for suitable probes is very high as over 80% of the farmers declared their willingness to purchase such probes. Technical problems related to the operation and servicing of such equipment were the most frequently mentioned impediments in their use. However, farmers and horticulturists believe that knowledge of their soil properties would allow them to optimize the elements of cultivation technology, including the use of plant irrigation systems, the use of mineral fertilizers and plant protection products.

Public Investment on Irrigation and Poverty Alleviation in Rural Laos

The demand for water is rising rapidly, particularly in agricultural and environmental sectors. This has led to more competition to access limited and scarce water resources. Therefore, choosing an appropriate approach to manage water resources, distribution and allocation, to attain sustainable agriculture is critical for every country worldwide. The most well-known method to preserve or store water and adaptation strategy to climate change is irrigation. This paper wished to understand the impact of irrigation on farmers’ income in Laos, especially from rice, which is the main crop of rural people. The difference in differences (DID) method was employed to estimate the regression results. The DID was estimated by the pooled OLS of the effect on the log of households’ rice farm income and log of households’ total income with household head’s age, education, gender, household size, ethnicity and harvest areas variables pointing out the coefficients of the outcome variables of interest (after treatment) were 0.037 and 0.076 with positive sign but statistically insignificant. The result implies irrigation has no impact on rice products. In other words, irrigation does not increase households’ income. The finding indicates the type of irrigation, the location of the operation headquarters and the management system or governance are crucial factors for explaining the impact of irrigation on the rice products in Laos.

An Evaluation of Probability of Occurrence of Hydrological Extremes

The hydrological extremes viz. droughts and floods, are global recurring natural hazards which are dynamic with respect to space and time impacting many people. The increase in the number of instances of these hydrological events in the past has steered the research in the direction towards evaluation of probability of occurrence of droughts and floods on a catchment scale, for proper planning and decision making in ideal allocation of the scarce water resources and mitigation of flood. Understanding and evaluating hydrological extremes becomes important in terms of sizing of storage reservoirs for combating droughts and floods, while its prediction becomes the key in reduction of its consequences. This study presents a summarized evaluation of probability of occurrence of floods and droughts in Bhavani basin of Kerala, using Herbst method, for a period of 40 years from 2002 to 2042, using streamflow data. As per the analysis, the most severe drought is expected to hit the basin in the year 2022- 2023 while the worst flood is expected in the year 2040 -2041. The novelty of the study is in applying the Herbst method for evaluating the probability of occurrence of floods in a catchment area without adopting rigorous hydrological modelling techniques.

Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?

Land and climate are strongly connected through multiple interface processes and climate change may lead to significant changes in land use. In this study, high-resolution observational gridded datasets are used to assess modifications in the Köppen-Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems, from 1950‒1979 to 1990‒2019 in Portugal. A compound Bioclimatic-Shift Exposure Index (BSEI) is also defined to identify the most exposed regions to recent climatic changes. The temporal evolution of land cover with vineyards and olive groves between 1990 and 2018, as well as correlations with areas with bioclimatic shifts, are analyzed. Results show an increase (decrease) of CSa Warm Mediterranean climate with hot summer (CSb, warm summer) of 18.1% (‒17.8%). The WBCS Temperate areas also reveal a decrease of ‒5.11%. Arid and semi-arid ombrotypes areas increased, conversely to humid to sub-humid ombrotypes. Thermotypic horizons depict a shift towards warmer classes. BSEI highlights the most significant shifts in northwestern Portugal. Vineyards have been displaced towards regions that are either the coolest/humid, in the northwest, or the warmest/driest, in the south. For oliviculture, the general trend for a relative shift towards cool/humid areas suggests an attempt of the sector to adapt, despite the cover area growth in the south. As vineyards and olive groves in southern Portugal are commonly irrigated, options for the intensification of these crops in this region may threaten the already scarce water resources and challenge the future sustainability of these sectors.

The Historical Thar Desert of India

Desert was a ‘no-go area’ and the interactions with it were only to curb and contain the rebelling forces. This article is an attempt to understand the contours and history of Thar Desert of Rajasthan and to explore the features that have kept the various desert states (Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Bikaner etc.) and their populace sustaining in this region throughout the ages, even when this region had scarce water resources and intense desert with huge and extensive dunes. Through political control the dynasts kept the social organisation intact which ensured regular incomes for their respective dynasties. Through the participation of various social actors this dry and hot desert evolved as a massive trade emporium. The intense trade activities of Thar Desert kept the imperial centres intact in this agriculturally devoid zone. In the harsh environmental conditions, limited means, resources and the objects, the settlers of this desert were able to create a huge economy that sustained effectively. The economy build by them not only allowed the foundation and formation of the states, it also ensured their continuation and expansion over the centuries. The continuity of the Rajput states in the Thar Desert is sufficient indicators of the fact that this desert was nourishing all of them efficiently. Received: 2 May 2021 / Accepted: 15 June 2021 / Published: 8 July 2021