scholarly journals Non-Parametric Statistics on Extreme Rainfall

1994 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 267-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
P. Harremoës ◽  
H. Spliid
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring Program ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Bootstrap Resampling ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Peak Intensity ◽  
Resampling Method ◽  
Storm Drainage ◽  
Design Values ◽  
Parametric Statistics ◽  
Rain Data

This article focuses on rain as input data to problems related to urban storm drainage. The rain data originate from a monitoring program consisting of 56 gauges in Denmark. The gauges have observation periods ranging from 2 to 14 years. The gauges sample rain in a quantity of 0.2 mm with a resolution in time of 1 minute. Two variables have been investigated: peak intensity and depth. Design values for return periods in the range from 0.1 to 2 years have been estimated for each gauge separately by means of the bootstrap resampling method. The estimation includes expected value, standard deviation and confidence intervals of the design value. For large return periods the uncertainty of the estimates prevents a distinction by gauge between different statistical populations. However, for small return periods a test shows significant variation between gauges, i.e. the uncertainty of the estimates may not be assumed to be due to sampling variability only.

scholarly journals LH-Moments of the Wakeby Distribution applied to Extreme Rainfall in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-180
Author(s):  
Busababodhin Piyapatr ◽  
Chiangpradit Monchaya ◽  
Phoophiwfa Tossapol ◽  
Jeong-Soo Park ◽  
Do-ove Manoon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Moments Method ◽  
Design Values ◽  
L Moments ◽  
Moments Estimates ◽  
Quantile Estimates ◽  
Wakeby Distribution ◽  
Better Than

This article applies the Wakeby distribution (WAD) with high-order L-moments estimates (LH-ME) to annual extreme rainfall data obtained from 99 gauge stations in Thailand. The objectives of this study investigate to obtain appropriate quantile estimates and return levels for several return periods, 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years. The 95% confidence intervals for the quantiles determined from the WAD are derived using the bootstrap technique. Isopluvial maps of estimated design values that correspond to selected return periods are presented. The LH-ME results are better than estimates from the more primitive L-moments method for a large majority of the stations considered.

scholarly journals Joint return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 6781-6828 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Vandenberghe ◽  
M. J. van den Berg ◽  
B. Gräler ◽  
A. Petroselli ◽  
S. Grimaldi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Joint Return ◽  
Design Values ◽  
Multivariate Frequency Analysis ◽  
Joint Return Period

Abstract. Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should the joint return period be defined and applied? In this study, an overview of the state-of-the-art for defining joint return periods is given. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analysis and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A case study focusing on the selection of design hydrograph characteristics is presented and the design values of a three-dimensional phenomenon composed of peak discharge, volume and duration are derived. Joint return period methods based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions, and Kendal distribution functions are investigated and compared highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based method is introduced. For a given design return period, the method chosen clearly affects the calculated design event. Eventually, light is shed on the practical implications of a chosen method.

Testing the impacts of wildfire on hydrological and sediment response using the OpenLISEM model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinfeng Wu ◽  
João Pedro Nunes ◽  
Jantiene E. M. Baartman
Keyword(s):  
Water Discharge ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Sediment Yields ◽  
Splash Erosion ◽  
Event Based

<p>Wildfires have become a major concern to society in recent decades because increases in the number and severity of wildfires have negative effects on soil and water resources, especially in headwater areas. Models are typically applied to estimate the potential adverse effects of fire. However, few modeling studies have been conducted for meso-scale catchments, and only a fraction of these studies include transport and deposition of eroded material within the catchment or represent spatial erosion patterns. In this study, we firstly designed the procedure of event-based automatic calibration using PEST, parameters ensemble, and jack-knife cross-validation that is suitable for event-based OpenLISEM calibration and validation, especially in data-scarce burned areas. The calibrated and validated OpenLISEM proved capable of providing reasonable accurate predictions of hydrological responses and sediment yields in this burned catchment. Then the model was applied with design storms of six different return periods (0.2, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, and 10 years) to simulate and evaluate pre- and post-wildfire hydrological and erosion responses at the catchment scale. Our results show rainfall amount and intensity play a more important role than fire occurrence in the catchment water discharge and sediment yields, while fire occurrence is regarded as an important factor for peak water discharge, indicating that high post-fire hydro-sedimentary responses are frequently related to extreme rainfall events. The results also suggest a partial shift from flow to splash erosion after fire, especially for higher return periods, explained by a combination of higher splash erosion in burnt upstream areas with a limited sediment transport capacity of surface runoff, preventing flow erosion in downstream areas. In consequence, the pre-fire erosion risk in the croplands of this catchment is partly shifted to a post-fire erosion risk in upper slope forest and natural areas, especially for storms with lower return periods, although erosion risks in croplands are important both before and after fires. This is relevant, as a shift of sediment sources to burnt areas might lead to downstream contamination even if sediment yields remain small. These findings have significant implications to identify areas for post-wildfire stabilization and rehabilitation, which is particularly important given the predicted increase in the occurrence of fires and extreme rainfall events with climate change.</p>

Analysis of stress intensity factor for fatigue crack using bootstrap S-version finite element model

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-589
Author(s):  
Muhamad Husnain Mohd Noh ◽  
Mohd Akramin Mohd Romlay ◽  
Chuan Zun Liang ◽  
Mohd Shamil Shaari ◽  
Akiyuki Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Stress Intensity Factor ◽  
Finite Element ◽  
Finite Element Model ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Bootstrap Resampling ◽  
Confidence Bounds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Resampling Method ◽  
The Mean

PurposeFailure of the materials occurs once the stress intensity factor (SIF) overtakes the material fracture toughness. At this level, the crack will grow rapidly resulting in unstable crack growth until a complete fracture happens. The SIF calculation of the materials can be conducted by experimental, theoretical and numerical techniques. Prediction of SIF is crucial to ensure safety life from the material failure. The aim of the simulation study is to evaluate the accuracy of SIF prediction using finite element analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe bootstrap resampling method is employed in S-version finite element model (S-FEM) to generate the random variables in this simulation analysis. The SIF analysis studies are promoted by bootstrap S-version Finite Element Model (BootstrapS-FEM). Virtual crack closure-integral method (VCCM) is an important concept to compute the energy release rate and SIF. The semielliptical crack shape is applied with different crack shape aspect ratio in this simulation analysis. The BootstrapS-FEM produces the prediction of SIFs for tension model.FindingsThe mean of BootstrapS-FEM is calculated from 100 samples by the resampling method. The bounds are computed based on the lower and upper bounds of the hundred samples of BootstrapS-FEM. The prediction of SIFs is validated with Newman–Raju solution and deterministic S-FEM within 95 percent confidence bounds. All possible values of SIF estimation by BootstrapS-FEM are plotted in a graph. The mean of the BootstrapS-FEM is referred to as point estimation. The Newman–Raju solution and deterministic S-FEM values are within the 95 percent confidence bounds. Thus, the BootstrapS-FEM is considered valid for the prediction with less than 6 percent of percentage error.Originality/valueThe bootstrap resampling method is employed in S-FEM to generate the random variables in this simulation analysis.

Application of a rainfall-runoff model for regional-scale flood inundation mapping for the Langat River Basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-383
Author(s):  
Majid Mirzaei ◽  
Mina Faghih ◽  
Tan Pei Ying ◽  
Ahmed El-Shafie ◽  
Yuk Feng Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Flow Rates ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Langat River ◽  
Maximum Flows

Rapid growth in recent decades has changed engineering concepts about the approach to controlling storm water in cities. Over the past years flood events have occurred more frequently in several countries in the tropics. In this study the behavior of Langat River in Malaysia was analyzed using the hydrodynamic modeling software (HEC-RAS) developed by the ‘Hydrologic Engineering Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’, to simulate different water levels and flow rates corresponding to different return periods from the available database. The aim was to forecast peak flows, based on rainfall data and the maximum rate of precipitation in different return periods in storms of different duration. The maximum flows were obtained from the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool for the different return periods, and the peak flows from extreme rainfall were applied to HEC-RAS to simulate different water levels and flow rates corresponding to different return periods. The water level along the river and its tributaries could then be analyzed for different flow conditions.

Quantifying Consequences of Land Use and Rainfall Changes on Maximum Flood Peak in the Lower Nam Phong River Basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 931-932 ◽  
pp. 791-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kittiwet Kuntiyawichai ◽  
Winai Sri-Amporn ◽  
Chadchai Pruthong
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Flood Impacts ◽  
Projected Changes

When the severity of exposure to flood is being addressed, several related concerns have always been raised to draw attention on a growing flood threat. In relation to this, the extraordinary insight into the seriousness of land use and rainfall changes that could greatly exacerbate flood impacts would need to be highlighted. The importance of the aforementioned issue lies in the main objective of quantifying consequences of how changes in land use and rainfall affect the hydrological processes in the lower Nam Phong River Basin. The use of Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) simulation model would add robustness and predictability to the overall results. It was apparent from the calibration and validation processes that there are reasonably close agreement between observed and simulated discharges at Ban Nong Hin gauging station (E.22A), with good correlation coefficients (ENS= 0.78, r2= 0.81 and ENS= 0.77, r2= 0.82, respectively). Thereafter, different what-if scenarios were conducted to determine impacts of land use changes in 2001, 2011 and 2057 and extreme rainfall with different return periods of 10-, 50-and 100-years on hydrological responses. A slight increase in peak flows were equal to 4% and 1%, as a consequence of the change from 2001 land use conditions to 2011 and 2057, respectively. Conversely, a large increase in peak discharges was expected to be 13%, 20% and 27% when the 2001 rainfall event was adjusted to the projected changes in rainfall corresponding to 10-, 50-and 100-year return periods, respectively. In brief, insignificant relation between hydrological response and land use changes was obviously found, but it was of particular significance due to changes in rainfall extremes. Taken together, obtained findings can then be used as a baseline for water resources planning, development and management, as well as flood management perspective.

scholarly journals Statistical Modeling of Extreme Rainfall in Southwest Western Australia

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 852-863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Li ◽  
W. Cai ◽  
E. P. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Statistical Modeling ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Drying Trend

Abstract Rainfall over southwest Western Australia (SWWA; 32°S southward and 118°E westward) has been decreasing over the past decades, putting further constraints on water resources in an already dry area. In this study, daily rainfall over five geographically dispersed and homogenized weather stations within SWWA are analyzed. A peak over threshold method from the extreme value theory is used to model daily rainfall above a given threshold. The Mann–Whitney–Pittitt (change point) test was applied to detect changes in annual, winter (May–October), and summer (November–April) maximum daily rainfall. Change points for winter extreme daily rainfall were found around 1965, based on different individual stations, with the extreme daily rainfall reduced since then. To demonstrate the degree of change in the winter extreme daily rainfall, at 1965 the data were stratified, and generalized Pareto distributions were fitted to the tails of the distributions for daily rainfall in the prechange period of 1930–65 (including 1965) and the postchange period of 1966–2001. The fitted tail distributions also allow the estimation of probabilities and return periods of the daily rainfall extreme. Results show that return periods for the winter extreme daily rainfall have increased after 1965, implying that winter daily rainfall extremes in SWWA are lower after 1965 than they were before. There has been vigorous debate as to what forces the drying trend, that is, whether it is part of multidecadal variability or whether it is driven by secular forcings, such as increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. In this paper, statistical modeling is also used to identify possible associated changes in atmospheric circulation. It is found that there is a change point near 1965 in a dominant atmospheric circulation mode of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). The result offers qualified support for the argument that the AAO may contribute to the drying trend.

scholarly journals Rainfall Intensity Analysis for Synoptic Stations in Northern Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-228
Author(s):  
S.O. Oyegoke ◽  
A.S. Adebanjo ◽  
H.J. Ododo
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Northern Nigeria ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Accurate Forecast ◽  
Idf Curves ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Frequency Relationship

With the large inter-annual variability of rainfall in Northern Nigeria, a zone subject to frequent dry spells which often result in severe and widespread droughts, the need for intense study of rainfall and accurate forecast of rainfall intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves cannot be over emphasized. The Intensity Duration Frequency relationship is a mathematical relationship between the rainfall intensity and rainfall duration for given return periods. Using a subset of the network of fifteen continuous auto recording rain gauges available in Northern Nigeria, a total of seven different time durations ranging from 12 minutes to 24 hours were developed for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The maximum data series so obtained was fitted to Gumbel’s Extreme Value Type 1 distribution. Linear Regression Analysis was then used to obtain the intensity-duration relationships for the various locations from which Intensity-Duration Frequency (IDF) curves were generated using Microsoft Excel for various return periods. Keywords:  Extreme rainfall, intensity, duration, frequency, Northern Nigeria

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