scholarly journals Future streamflow assessment in the Haihe River basin located in northern China using a regionalized variable infiltration capacity model based on 18 CMIP5 GCMs

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1551-1569
Author(s):  
Zhenxin Bao ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Xiaolin Yan ◽  
Guoqing Wang ◽  
Junliang Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Haihe River Basin

Abstract The impact of future climate change on streamflow is assessed in the Haihe River basin (HRB) by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, using the outputs from 18 general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios have been used, including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Based on the model parameters calibration in six catchments in the HRB and parameter regionalization, the hydrological simulation for the whole HRB denotes good performance of the VIC model. Taking the period 1961–1990 as a baseline period, the outputs from the GCMs indicate that the HRB will become warmer and wetter in the 21st century (2010–2099). There might be an increasing trend for the streamflow in the HRB under future climate change scenarios. For example, in the 2050s (2040–2069), the streamflow may increase by 12%, 28%, and 24% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Monthly, the highest and lowest increase in streamflow is in dry and wet seasons, respectively. Spatially, the increasing trend for streamflow in the north HRB is higher than that in the south HRB. The uncertainty from the GCMs and climatic scenarios should be further focused.

scholarly journals Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in the Haihe River Basin under the Influence of Climate Change

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1664
Author(s):  
Yuhang Han ◽  
Bin Liu ◽  
Dan Xu ◽  
Chaoguo Yuan ◽  
Yanan Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
The Haihe River Basin ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Spearman’S Correlation

The impact of global climate change on the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation is significant. In this study, daily temperature and precipitation data from 258 meteorological stations in the Haihe River Basin, for the period 1960–2020, were used to determine the trend and significance of temperature and precipitation changes at interannual and interseasonal scales. The Mann–Kendall test and Spearman’s correlation analysis were employed, and significant change trends and correlations were determined. At more than 90% of the selected stations, the results showed a significant increase in temperature, at both interannual and interseasonal scales, and the increasing trend was more significant in spring than in other seasons. Precipitation predominantly showed a decreasing trend at an interannual scale; however, the change trend was not significant. In terms of the interseasonal scale, the precipitation changes in spring and autumn showed an overall increasing trend, those in summer showed a 1:1 distribution ratio of increasing and decreasing trends, and those in winter showed an overall decreasing trend. Furthermore, the Spearman’s correlation analysis showed a negative correlation between temperature and precipitation in the entire Haihe River Basin, at both interannual and interseasonal scales; however, most of the correlations were weak.

Sensitivity of hydrological variables to climate change in the Haihe River basin, China

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (15) ◽  
pp. 2294-2306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenxin Bao ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Jiufu Liu ◽  
Guoqing Wang ◽  
Xiaolin Yan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
The Haihe River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Variables

scholarly journals Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) using statistical down scaling techniques

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagnenet Fenta Mekonnen ◽  
Markus Disse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Blue Nile River Basin

Abstract. Climate change is becoming one of the most arguable and threatening issues in terms of global context and their responses to environment and socio/economic drivers. Its direct impact becomes critical for water resource development and indirectly for agricultural production, environmental quality, economic development, social well-being. However, a large uncertainty between different Global Circulation Models (GCM) and downscaling methods exist that makes reliable conclusions for a sustainable water management difficult. In order to understand the future climate change of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, two widely used statistical down scaling techniques namely LARS-WG and SDSM models were applied. Six CMIP3 GCMs for LARS-WG (CSIRO-MK3, ECHAM5-OM, MRI-CGCM2.3.2, HaDCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, CCSM3) model while HadCM3 GCM and canESM2 from CMIP5 GCMs for SDSM were used for climate change analysis. The downscaled precipitation results from the prediction of the six GCMs by LARS WG showed inconsistency and large inter model variability, two GCMs showed decreasing trend while 4 GCMs showed increasing in the range from −7.9 % to +43.7 % while the ensemble mean of the six GCM result showed increasing trend ranged from 1.0 % to 14.4 %. NCCCS GCM predicted maximum increase in mean annual precipitation. However, the projection from HadCM3 GCM is consistent with the multi-model average projection, which predicts precipitation increase from 1.7 % to 16.6 %. Conversely, the result from all GCMs showed a similar continuous increasing trend for maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) in all three future periods. The change for mean annual Tmax may increase from 0.4 °c to 4.3 °c whereas the change for mean annual Tmin may increase from 0.3 °c to 4.1 °c. Meanwhile, the result from SDSM showed an increasing trend for all three climate variables (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature) from both HadCM3 and canESM2 GCMs. The relative change of mean annual precipitation range from 2.1 % to 43.8 % while the change for mean annual Tmax and Tmin may increase from 0.4 °c to 2.9 °c and from 0.3 °c to 1.6 °c respectively. The change in magnitude for precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenarios than others as expected. The present result illustrate that both down scaling techniques have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables which can be adopted for future climate change study with high confidence for the UBNRB. In order to see the comparative downscaling results from the two down scaling techniques, HadCM3 GCM of A2 scenario was used in common. The result obtained from the two down scaling models were found reasonably comparable and both approaches showed increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. However, the analysis of the downscaled climate data from the two techniques showed, LARS WG projected a relatively higher increase than SDSM.

Multimodel ensemble projections of future climate extreme changes in the Haihe River Basin, China

2014 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiguang Wang ◽  
Quanxi Shao ◽  
Tao Yang ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Wanqiu Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
The Haihe River Basin ◽  
Ensemble Projections

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal effects of climate change and land use change on runoff, sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus loss in the Haihe River Basin over the past 40 years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
nan ding ◽  
yi chen ◽  
Fulu Tao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
Phosphorus Loss ◽  
Runoff Sediment ◽  
The Haihe River Basin

Investigating the impacts of climate and land use changes on basin’s hydrological cycle and environment is important to provide scientific evidence to manage the trade-off and synergies among water resource, agricultural production and environment protection. In this study, we quantified the contributions of climate and land-use changes to runoff, sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus losses in the Haihe River basin since the 1980s. The results showed that (1) climate and land-use changes significantly increased evapotranspiration (ET), transport loss (TL), sediment input (SI) and output (SO), and organic nitrogen (ON) and phosphorus production (OP), with ET, SI, and ON affected most. (2) The runoff, sediment and ammonia nitrogen were affected most by climate and land use changes in the Daqing River Basin (217.3 mm), Nanyun River Basin (3917.3 ton) and Chaobai River Basin (87.6 kg/ha), respectively. (3) The impacts of climate and land-use changes had explicit spatial-temporal patterns. In the Daqing River, Yongding River and Nanyun River, the contribution of climate change to runoff and sediment kept increasing and reached 88.6%~98.2% and 63%~77.2%, respectively. In the Ziya River and Chaobai River Basin, the contribution of land use was larger, reaching 88.6%~92.8% and 59.8%~92.7%, respectively. In the Yongding River Basin, Chaobai River Basin, Ziya River Basin and Daqing River Basin, the contribution of land use to nitrogen and phosphorus loss showed an increasing trend in the past 40 years (maximum: 89.7%). By contrast, in Nanyun River and Luanhe River, the contribution of climate change to nitrogen and phosphorus loss increased more obviously (maximum: 92.1%). We quantitatively evaluated the spatial and temporal impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff, sediment, and nitrogen and phosphorus loss, which are useful to support the optimizations of land and water resources in the River Basin.

scholarly journals Climate, CO2, and Anthropogenic Drivers of Accelerated Vegetation Greening in the Haihe River Basin

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 268
Author(s):  
Wenjing Yang ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Qingming Wang ◽  
Buliao Guan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
The Haihe River Basin ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Anthropogenic Drivers

Vegetation regulates the exchange of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes and connects the biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Over the last four decades, vegetation greening has been observed worldwide using satellite technology. China has also experienced a notably widespread greening trend. However, the responsiveness of vegetation dynamics to elevated CO2 concentration, climate change, and human activities remains unclear. In this study, we attempted to explore the impact of natural (precipitation, air temperature), biogeochemical (CO2), and anthropogenic drivers (nighttime light, afforestation area) on changes in vegetation greenness in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) during 2002–2018 at the county-level. We further determined the major factors affecting the variation in satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for each county. The results indicated that over 85% of the counties had a significantly increased NDVI trend, and the average linear trend of annual NDVI across the study region was 0.0037 per year. The largest contributor to the NDVI trend was CO2 (mean contribution 45%), followed by human activities (mean contribution of 27%). Additionally, afforestation was a pronounced driving force for NDVI changes in mountainous areas, resulting from ecosystem restoration efforts. Our findings emphasize the crucial role of CO2 fertilization in vegetation cover change, while considering CO2 concentration, climate change, and human activities, and shed light on the significant influences of afforestation programs on water resources, especially in mountainous areas.

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