Drought Evolution Due to Climate Change and Links to Precipitation Intensity in the Haihe River Basin

Abstract The impact of future climate change on streamflow is assessed in the Haihe River basin (HRB) by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, using the outputs from 18 general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios have been used, including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Based on the model parameters calibration in six catchments in the HRB and parameter regionalization, the hydrological simulation for the whole HRB denotes good performance of the VIC model. Taking the period 1961–1990 as a baseline period, the outputs from the GCMs indicate that the HRB will become warmer and wetter in the 21st century (2010–2099). There might be an increasing trend for the streamflow in the HRB under future climate change scenarios. For example, in the 2050s (2040–2069), the streamflow may increase by 12%, 28%, and 24% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Monthly, the highest and lowest increase in streamflow is in dry and wet seasons, respectively. Spatially, the increasing trend for streamflow in the north HRB is higher than that in the south HRB. The uncertainty from the GCMs and climatic scenarios should be further focused.

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Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in the Haihe River Basin under the Influence of Climate Change

Water ◽

10.3390/w13121664 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (12) ◽

pp. 1664

Author(s):

Yuhang Han ◽

Bin Liu ◽

Dan Xu ◽

Chaoguo Yuan ◽

Yanan Xu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Haihe River Basin ◽

Haihe River ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Temporal And Spatial ◽

The Haihe River Basin ◽

Precipitation Changes ◽

Spearman’S Correlation

The impact of global climate change on the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation is significant. In this study, daily temperature and precipitation data from 258 meteorological stations in the Haihe River Basin, for the period 1960–2020, were used to determine the trend and significance of temperature and precipitation changes at interannual and interseasonal scales. The Mann–Kendall test and Spearman’s correlation analysis were employed, and significant change trends and correlations were determined. At more than 90% of the selected stations, the results showed a significant increase in temperature, at both interannual and interseasonal scales, and the increasing trend was more significant in spring than in other seasons. Precipitation predominantly showed a decreasing trend at an interannual scale; however, the change trend was not significant. In terms of the interseasonal scale, the precipitation changes in spring and autumn showed an overall increasing trend, those in summer showed a 1:1 distribution ratio of increasing and decreasing trends, and those in winter showed an overall decreasing trend. Furthermore, the Spearman’s correlation analysis showed a negative correlation between temperature and precipitation in the entire Haihe River Basin, at both interannual and interseasonal scales; however, most of the correlations were weak.

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Spatial and temporal effects of climate change and land use change on runoff, sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus loss in the Haihe River Basin over the past 40 years

10.22541/au.163251822.21540664/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

nan ding ◽

yi chen ◽

Fulu Tao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Haihe River Basin ◽

Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽

Haihe River ◽

Phosphorus Loss ◽

Runoff Sediment ◽

The Haihe River Basin

Investigating the impacts of climate and land use changes on basin’s hydrological cycle and environment is important to provide scientific evidence to manage the trade-off and synergies among water resource, agricultural production and environment protection. In this study, we quantified the contributions of climate and land-use changes to runoff, sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus losses in the Haihe River basin since the 1980s. The results showed that (1) climate and land-use changes significantly increased evapotranspiration (ET), transport loss (TL), sediment input (SI) and output (SO), and organic nitrogen (ON) and phosphorus production (OP), with ET, SI, and ON affected most. (2) The runoff, sediment and ammonia nitrogen were affected most by climate and land use changes in the Daqing River Basin (217.3 mm), Nanyun River Basin (3917.3 ton) and Chaobai River Basin (87.6 kg/ha), respectively. (3) The impacts of climate and land-use changes had explicit spatial-temporal patterns. In the Daqing River, Yongding River and Nanyun River, the contribution of climate change to runoff and sediment kept increasing and reached 88.6%~98.2% and 63%~77.2%, respectively. In the Ziya River and Chaobai River Basin, the contribution of land use was larger, reaching 88.6%~92.8% and 59.8%~92.7%, respectively. In the Yongding River Basin, Chaobai River Basin, Ziya River Basin and Daqing River Basin, the contribution of land use to nitrogen and phosphorus loss showed an increasing trend in the past 40 years (maximum: 89.7%). By contrast, in Nanyun River and Luanhe River, the contribution of climate change to nitrogen and phosphorus loss increased more obviously (maximum: 92.1%). We quantitatively evaluated the spatial and temporal impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff, sediment, and nitrogen and phosphorus loss, which are useful to support the optimizations of land and water resources in the River Basin.

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Climate, CO2, and Anthropogenic Drivers of Accelerated Vegetation Greening in the Haihe River Basin

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs14020268 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 268

Author(s):

Wenjing Yang ◽

Yong Zhao ◽

Qingming Wang ◽

Buliao Guan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Human Activities ◽

Co2 Concentration ◽

Haihe River Basin ◽

Mountainous Areas ◽

Haihe River ◽

The Haihe River Basin ◽

The Impact ◽

Anthropogenic Drivers

Vegetation regulates the exchange of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes and connects the biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Over the last four decades, vegetation greening has been observed worldwide using satellite technology. China has also experienced a notably widespread greening trend. However, the responsiveness of vegetation dynamics to elevated CO2 concentration, climate change, and human activities remains unclear. In this study, we attempted to explore the impact of natural (precipitation, air temperature), biogeochemical (CO2), and anthropogenic drivers (nighttime light, afforestation area) on changes in vegetation greenness in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) during 2002–2018 at the county-level. We further determined the major factors affecting the variation in satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for each county. The results indicated that over 85% of the counties had a significantly increased NDVI trend, and the average linear trend of annual NDVI across the study region was 0.0037 per year. The largest contributor to the NDVI trend was CO2 (mean contribution 45%), followed by human activities (mean contribution of 27%). Additionally, afforestation was a pronounced driving force for NDVI changes in mountainous areas, resulting from ecosystem restoration efforts. Our findings emphasize the crucial role of CO2 fertilization in vegetation cover change, while considering CO2 concentration, climate change, and human activities, and shed light on the significant influences of afforestation programs on water resources, especially in mountainous areas.

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Impacts of climate change and vegetation dynamics on runoff in the mountainous region of the Haihe River basin in the past five decades

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.02.029 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 511 ◽

pp. 786-799 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

Huimin Lei ◽

Dawen Yang ◽

Maoyi Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Vegetation Dynamics ◽

Haihe River Basin ◽

Mountainous Region ◽

Haihe River ◽

The Past ◽

The Haihe River Basin ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Watershed Modeling of Surface Water-Groundwater Interaction under Projected Climate Change and Water Management in the Haihe River Basin, China

British Journal of Environment and Climate Change ◽

10.9734/bjecc/2013/2673 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 421-443 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Zhonggen Wang ◽

Yuzhou Luo ◽

Xinjun Zhu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Management ◽

Surface Water ◽

River Basin ◽

Watershed Modeling ◽

Haihe River Basin ◽

Haihe River ◽

The Haihe River Basin

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Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-376-51-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 376 ◽

pp. 51-55 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Xiao-Jun Wang ◽

Jian-Yun Zhang ◽

Shamsuddin Shahid ◽

Yu-Xuan Xie ◽

Xu Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Population Growth ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Demand ◽

Haihe River Basin ◽

Domestic Water ◽

Haihe River ◽

Continuous Increase ◽

Domestic Water Demand ◽

The Haihe River Basin

Abstract. A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

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Long-term variation of water vapor content and precipitation in the Haihe river basin

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2014.155 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 341-351 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Chun Chang ◽

Ping Feng ◽

Fawen Li ◽

Yunming Gao

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

River Basin ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Water Vapor Content ◽

Haihe River Basin ◽

Haihe River ◽

Annual Water ◽

Environmental Prediction ◽

High Consistency ◽

The Haihe River Basin

Based on the Haihe river basin National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data from 1948 to 2010 and the precipitation data of 53 hydrological stations during 1957–2010, this study analyzed the variation of water vapor content and precipitation, and investigated the correlation between them using several statistical methods. The results showed that the annual water vapor content decreased drastically from 1948 to 2010. It was comparatively high from the late 1940s to the late 1960s and depreciated from the early 1970s. From the southeast to the northwest of the Haihe river basin, there was a decrease in water vapor content. For vertical distribution, water vapor content from the ground to 700 hPa pressure level accounted for 72.9% of the whole atmospheric layer, which indicated that the water vapor of the Haihe river basin was mainly in the air close to the ground. The precipitation in the Haihe river basin during 1957–2010 decreased very slightly. According to the correlation analysis, the precipitation and water vapor content changes showed statistically positive correlation, in addition, their break points were both in the 1970s. Furthermore, the high consistency between the precipitation efficiency and precipitation demonstrates that water vapor content is one of the important factors in the formation of precipitation.

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