scholarly journals Assessing impacts of future climate change on hydrological processes in an urbanizing watershed with a multimodel approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Sha ◽  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Xue Li ◽  
Zhong-liang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Combined Application ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Urbanizing Watershed ◽  
Ashton Research Station

Abstract The sensitivity of hydrological processes to the changed environment is of great concern. The integrated impacts of climate change and urbanization in the future have been assessed in a watershed in Northwest China through a multimodel approach based on the combined application of Generalized Watershed Loading Functions, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator, and the Land Change Modeler. The results showed that both climate change and urbanization would lead to more watershed streamflow, and their combination would have synergistic effects on additional increases. In addition, there would be different seasonal distributions of streamflow with a greater proportion of runoff. These study results are helpful in supporting projects and/or decision-making processes for managers by providing more insights into the regional hydrological changes affected by climate change and urbanization. The proposed methodology of the combined multimodel approach may be applicable in other areas with similar conditions.

Estimation of hydrological response to future climate change in a cold watershed

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Sha ◽  
Zhong-Liang Wang ◽  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Yan-Xue Xu ◽  
Xue Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Water System ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Hydrological Process

Abstract The vulnerability of the natural water system in cold areas to future climate change is of great concern. A coupled model approach was applied in the headwater watershed area of Yalu River in the northeastern part of China to estimate the response of hydrological processes to future climate change with moderate data. The stochastic Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator was used to downscale the results of general circulation models to generate synthetic daily weather series in the 2050s and 2080s under various projected scenarios, which were applied as input data of the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions hydrological model for future hydrological process estimations. The results showed that future wetter and hotter weather conditions would have positive impacts on the watershed runoff yields but negative impacts on the watershed groundwater flow yields. The freezing period in winter would be shortened with earlier snowmelt peaks in spring. These would result in less snow cover in winter and shift the monthly allocations of streamflow with more yields in March but less in April and May, which should be of great concern for future local management. The proposed approach of the coupled model application is effective and can be used in other similar areas.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Sustainability of Tailan Underground Reservoir in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 3249-3255
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Kwame Appiah-Adjei ◽  
Long Cang Shu ◽  
Kwaku Amaning Adjei ◽  
Cheng Peng Lu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Recharge Sources ◽  
Underground Reservoir

In order to ensure availability of water throughout the year in the Tailan River basin of northwestern China, an underground reservoir has been constructed in the basin to augment the groundwater resource and efficiently utilize it. This study investigates the potential impact of future climate change on the reservoir by assessing its influence on sustainability of recharge sources to the reservoir. The methods employed involved using a combined Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) to downscale the climate variations of the basin from a global climate model and applying them through a simple soil water balance to quantify their impact on recharge to the reservoir. The results predict the current mean monthly temperature of the basin to increase by 2.01°C and 2.84°C for the future periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively, while the precipitations are to decrease by 25% and 36% over the same periods. Consequently, the water balance analyses project the recharge to the reservoir to decrease by 37% and 49% for the periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, respectively. Thus the study provides useful information for sustainable management of the reservoir against potential future climate changes.

scholarly journals Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonghuan Fang ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Zhi Li ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantifying the uncertainty sources in assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes is helpful for local water management decision-making. This paper investigated the impact of the general circulation model (GCM) structural uncertainty on hydrological processes in the Kaidu River Basin. Outputs of 21 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), representing future climate change under uncertainty, were first bias-corrected using four precipitation and three temperature methods and then used to force a well-calibrated hydrological model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) in the study area. Results show that the precipitation will increase by 3.1%–18% and 7.0%–22.5%, the temperature will increase by 2.0 °C–3.3 °C and 4.2 °C–5.5 °C and the streamflow will change by −26% to 3.4% and −38% to −7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Timing of snowmelt will shift forward by approximately 1–2 months for both scenarios. Compared to RCPs and bias correction methods, GCM structural uncertainty contributes most to streamflow uncertainty based on the standard deviation method (55.3%) while it is dominant based on the analysis of variance approach (94.1%).

scholarly journals Are the effects of vegetation and soil changes as important as climate change impacts on hydrological processes?

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 4933-4954 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kabir Rasouli ◽  
John W. Pomeroy ◽  
Paul H. Whitfield
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Runoff Volume ◽  
Mountain Basins ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil Changes

Abstract. Hydrological processes are widely understood to be sensitive to changes in climate, but the effects of concomitant changes in vegetation and soils have seldom been considered in snow-dominated mountain basins. The response of mountain hydrology to vegetation/soil changes in the present and a future climate was modeled in three snowmelt-dominated mountain basins in the North American Cordillera. The models developed for each basin using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modeling platform employed current and expected changes to vegetation and soil parameters and were driven with recent and perturbed high-altitude meteorological observations. Monthly perturbations were calculated using the differences in outputs between the present- and a future-climate scenario from 11 regional climate models. In the three basins, future climate change alone decreased the modeled peak snow water equivalent (SWE) by 11 %–47 % and increased the modeled evapotranspiration by 14 %–20 %. However, including future changes in vegetation and soil for each basin changed or reversed these climate change outcomes. In Wolf Creek in the Yukon Territory, Canada, a statistically insignificant increase in SWE due to vegetation increase in the alpine zone was found to offset the statistically significant decrease in SWE due to climate change. In Marmot Creek in the Canadian Rockies, the increase in annual runoff due to the combined effect of soil and climate change was statistically significant, whereas their individual effects were not. In the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain in Idaho, USA, vegetation change alone decreased the annual runoff volume by 8 %, but changes in soil, climate, or both did not affect runoff. At high elevations in Wolf and Marmot creeks, the model results indicated that vegetation/soil changes moderated the impact of climate change on peak SWE, the timing of peak SWE, evapotranspiration, and the annual runoff volume. However, at medium elevations, these changes intensified the impact of climate change, further decreasing peak SWE and sublimation. The hydrological impacts of changes in climate, vegetation, and soil in mountain environments were similar in magnitude but not consistent in direction for all biomes; in some combinations, this resulted in enhanced impacts at lower elevations and latitudes and moderated impacts at higher elevations and latitudes.

Impacts of rainfall and air temperature variations due to climate change upon hydrological characteristics: a case study

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 865-879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Ouyang ◽  
Jia-En Zhang ◽  
Yide Li ◽  
Prem Parajuli ◽  
Gary Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Evaporative Loss ◽  
Water Outflow ◽  
Air Temperature Variations

Rainfall and air temperature variations resulting from climate change are important driving forces to change hydrologic processes in watershed ecosystems. This study investigated the impacts of past and future rainfall and air temperature variations upon water discharge, water outflow (from the watershed outlet), and evaporative loss in the Lower Yazoo River Watershed (LYRW), Mississippi, USA using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. Four future climate change (i.e., rainfall and air temperature change) scenarios, namely the CSIROMK35A1B, HADCM3B2, CSIROMK2B2, and MIROC32A1B scenarios, were used as input data to perform simulations in this study. Results showed that monthly variations of water discharge, evaporative loss, and water outflow were primarily due to the monthly fluctuations of rainfall rather than air temperature. On average, for all of the four scenarios, a 6.4% decrease in rainfall amount resulted in, respectively, 11.8 and 10.3% decreases in water outflow and evaporative loss. Our study demonstrated that rainfall had profound impacts upon water outflow and evaporative loss. In light of this predicted future decrease in water outflow, water resource conservation practices such as reducing ground and surface water usages that help to prevent streams from drying are vitally important in mitigating climate change impacts on stream flow in the LYRW.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variations in Drought and Wetness from 1965 to 2017 in China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2097
Author(s):  
Zhaoqi Zeng ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Yamei Li ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events

Drought and extreme precipitation events can have major environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Yet, how drought and wetness are changing in China in the context of climate change is still under debate. Here, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on high-quality and more densely distributed daily meteorological observation data from 655 stations across China during the period of 1965–2017. National and regional trends in drought and wetness and their various characteristics, including intensity, duration, frequency, and percentage of area affected, were investigated at multiple timescales. We found that (1) China as a whole has undergone a significant (p < 0.01, trend significant at the level of 0.01) wetting trend, with an annual SPEI increase of 0.5 per decade from 1965 to 2017. A seasonal wetting trend was also observed, with summer being particularly significant (p < 0.01). (2) Regionally, each subregion also showed a wetting trend during the study period except for southwest China, and these wetting trends were significant in the western region of northwest China (p < 0.05, trend significant at the level of 0.05), the Tibetan Plateau (p < 0.05), and eastern China (p = 0.06). (3) Decadal trends in drought and wetness intensity, frequency, duration, and affected areas indicated that the drought events also became more severe and more frequent in the last two decades, and the areas showing drying trends were mainly located in southwest China (especially for the autumn drought) and the southwestern parts of eastern northwest China (spring drought). Our results highlight the fact that although a wetting trend was observed in most regions of China, the frequent occurrence of severe drought in southwest China and the southwestern parts of eastern northwest China still present a considerable threat to both the environment and society. Therefore, how to effectively coordinate the allocation of regional water resources to cope with drought risk under future climate change will be particularly important.

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