scholarly journals Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Saedi ◽  
Azadeh Ahmadi ◽  
Karim C. Abbaspour
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The climate change impact on water availability has become a significant cause for concern in the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran and similar reservoirs in arid regions. This study investigates the climate change impact on supplying water and water availability in the Zayandeh-Roud River Basin. For better management, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop a hydrologic model of the Basin. The model then was calibrated and validated for two upstream stations using the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP software. The impact of climate change was modeled by using data derived from five Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project general circulation models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For calibration (1991–2008), the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.75 and 0.61 at the Ghaleshahrokh and Eskandari stations were obtained, respectively. For validation (2009–2015), the NSE values were 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. The reservoir inflow would probably reduce by 40–50% during the period of 2020–2045 relative to the base period of 1981–2006. To evaluate the reservoir's future performance, a nonlinear optimization model was used to minimize water deficits. The highest annual water deficit would likely be around 847 MCM. The lowest reservoir reliability and the highest vulnerability occurred under the extreme RCP8.5 pathway.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (33) ◽  
pp. 9222-9227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvan Ragettli ◽  
Walter W. Immerzeel ◽  
Francesca Pellicciotti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Change Impact

Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

scholarly journals Climate change impact assessment as function of model inaccuracy

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 2875-2899
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
A. van Loon ◽  
W. Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. More extreme climate change scenarios and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

scholarly journals Assessment of Ecological and Hydro-Geomorphological Alterations under Climate Change Using SWAT and IAHRIS in the Eo River in Northern Spain

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1745
Author(s):  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Carolina Martínez Santa-María ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Northern Spain

Magnitude and temporal variability of streamflow is essential for natural biodiversity and the stability of aquatic environments. In this study, a comparative analysis between historical data (1971–2013) and future climate change scenarios (2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099) of the hydrological regime in the Eo river, in the north of Spain, is carried out in order to assess the ecological and hydro-geomorphological risks over the short-, medium- and long-term. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied on a daily basis to assess climate-induced hydrological changes in the river under five general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. Statistical results, both in calibration (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE): 0.73, percent bias (PBIAS): 3.52, R2: 0.74) and validation (NSE: 0.62, PBIAS: 6.62, R2: 0.65), are indicative of the SWAT model’s good performance. The ten climate scenarios pointed out a reduction in rainfall (up to −22%) and an increase in temperatures, both maximum (from +1 to +7 °C) and minimum ones (from +1 to +4 °C). Predicted flow rates resulted in an incrementally greater decrease the longer the term is, varying between −5% (in short-term) and −53% (in long-term). The free software IAHRIS (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers) determined that alteration for usual values remains between excellent and good status and from good to moderate in drought values, but flood values showed a deficient regime in most scenarios, which implies an instability of river morphology, a progressive reduction in the section of the river and an advance of aging of riparian habitat, endangering the renewal of the species.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 669-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
A. Van Loon ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Reference Situation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

scholarly journals A Multi-GCM Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology and Hydropower Potential of a Semi-Arid Basin (A Case Study of the Dez Dam Basin, Iran)

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roya Mousavi ◽  
Mojtaba Ahmadizadeh ◽  
Safar Marofi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Change Condition ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, the impact of climate change on the climate and discharge of the Dez Dam Basin and the hydropower potential of two hydropower plants (Bakhtiari and Dez) is investigated based on the downscaled outputs of six GCMs (General Circulation Models) and three SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios for the early, mid and late 21st century. Projections of all the scenarios and GCMs revealed a significant rise in temperature (up to 4.9 °C) and slight to moderate variation in precipitation (up to 18%). Outputs of the HBV hydrologic model, enforced by projected datasets, show a reduction of the annual flow by 33% under the climate change condition. Further, analyzing the induced changes in the inflow and hydropower generation potential of the Bakhtiari and Dez dams showed that both inflow and hydropower generation is significantly affected by climate change. For the Bakhtiari dam, this indicates a consistent reduction of inflow (up to 27%) and electricity generation (up to 32%). While, in the Dez dam case, the inflow is projected to decrease (up to 22%) and the corresponding hydropower is expected to slightly increase (up to 3%). This contrasting result for the Dez dam is assessed based on its reservoir and hydropower plant capacity, as well as other factors such as the timely releases to meet different demands and flow regime changes under climate change. The results show that the Bakhtiari reservoir and power plant will not meet the design-capacity outputs under the climate change condition as its large capacity cannot be fully utilized; while there is room for the further development of the Dez power plant. Comparing the results of the applied GCMs showed high discrepancies among the outputs of different models.

scholarly journals Comprehensive assessment and scenario simulation for future of the hydrological processes in Dez river basin, Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Eini ◽  
Saman Javadi ◽  
Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany ◽  
Ozgur Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Hydrological Simulation

Abstract Climate change is one of the leading factors that directly affect hydrological processes in large basins. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on streamflow, sediment and crop yield, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and water budget. In addition, the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) alteration with climate change on streamflow and sediment yield have been evaluated in the Dez river basin in the southwest of Iran. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) based on two scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the near period (2021–2040) are considered. Hydrological simulation is done by Soil and Water assessment tool (SWAT) with good performance in calibration (1990 to 2010) and validation (2010 to 2017) periods. The precipitation and temperature projected show a major upward trend related to the base period. The results showed that climate change increases the runoff and sediments. In addition, results projected that garden crop yields would increase while agricultural crop yields would decrease. Meanwhile, AET will face a slight decline of about 2%–6%. Combined LULC and climate change scenarios showed that with amplification of orchards areas, sediment load would decrease.

Assessment of climate change impact on flow regimes over the Gomti River basin under IPCC AR5 climate change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 303-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S. Abeysingha ◽  
Adlul Islam ◽  
Man Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Flow Regimes ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Gomti River ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract Climate change impact on flow regimes in the Gomti River basin, India was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) driven by climate change scenarios generated from multiple general circulation model (GCM) projections. The SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs) was used for calibration and validation of SWAT using multi-site data. Climate change scenarios were generated from multiple GCM projections using the hybrid-delta ensemble method. Calibration of SWAT using the nine most sensitive parameters showed that the model performed reasonably well with P-factor >0.7 and R-factor <1.0. The annual rainfall is projected to increase by 3.4–4.5, 4.7–10.0, and 5.0–18.0% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). There is a decrease in rainfall during the winter season. The annual streamflow is projected to increase by 1–9, 1–22, and 2–38% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. However, winter and summer streamflow is projected to decrease. Magnitude and frequency of high flows is also projected to increase in the range of 3.6–27.3 and 12–87%, respectively under different RCPs. The results of this study will be helpful in developing suitable water management adaptation plans for the study basin.

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarfaraz Alam ◽  
Md. Mostafa Ali ◽  
Ahmmed Zulfiqar Rahaman ◽  
Zahidul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Brahmaputra River ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin is vital for sustainable socioeconomic development of the Ganges delta. Frequent floods and droughts in the past decades indicate the susceptibility of the region to climate variability. Although there are multiple studies investigating the basin's future water availability, most of those are based on limited climate change scenarios despite the wide range of uncertainties in different climate model projections. This study aims to provide a better estimation of projected future streamflow for a combination of 18 climate change scenarios. We develop a hydrologic model of the basin and simulate the future water availability based on these climate change scenarios. Our results show that the simulated mean annual, mean seasonal and annual maximum streamflow of the basin is expected to increase in future. By the end of the 21st century, the projected increase in mean annual, mean dry season, mean wet season, and annual maximum streamflow is about 25, 178, 11, and 22%, respectively. We also demonstrate that this projected streamflow can be expressed as a multivariate linear regression of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the basin and would be very useful for policy makers to make informed decision regarding climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand using Weather Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Fiorillo ◽  
Zoran Kapelan ◽  
Maria Xenochristou ◽  
Francesco De Paola ◽  
Maurizio Giugni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Social Characteristics ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAssessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reproducing atmospheric and ocean processes. In order to establish the link between water demand and weather, Random Forest models based on weather variables were used. This methodology was applied to a district metered area in Naples (Italy). Results demonstrate that the total district water demand may increase by 9–10% during the weeks with the highest temperatures. Furthermore, results show that the increase in water demand changes depending on the social characteristics of the users. The water demand of employed users with high education may increase by 13–15% when the highest temperatures occur. These increases can seriously affect the capacity and operation of existing water systems.

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