scholarly journals A Multi-GCM Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology and Hydropower Potential of a Semi-Arid Basin (A Case Study of the Dez Dam Basin, Iran)

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roya Mousavi ◽  
Mojtaba Ahmadizadeh ◽  
Safar Marofi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Change Condition ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, the impact of climate change on the climate and discharge of the Dez Dam Basin and the hydropower potential of two hydropower plants (Bakhtiari and Dez) is investigated based on the downscaled outputs of six GCMs (General Circulation Models) and three SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios for the early, mid and late 21st century. Projections of all the scenarios and GCMs revealed a significant rise in temperature (up to 4.9 °C) and slight to moderate variation in precipitation (up to 18%). Outputs of the HBV hydrologic model, enforced by projected datasets, show a reduction of the annual flow by 33% under the climate change condition. Further, analyzing the induced changes in the inflow and hydropower generation potential of the Bakhtiari and Dez dams showed that both inflow and hydropower generation is significantly affected by climate change. For the Bakhtiari dam, this indicates a consistent reduction of inflow (up to 27%) and electricity generation (up to 32%). While, in the Dez dam case, the inflow is projected to decrease (up to 22%) and the corresponding hydropower is expected to slightly increase (up to 3%). This contrasting result for the Dez dam is assessed based on its reservoir and hydropower plant capacity, as well as other factors such as the timely releases to meet different demands and flow regime changes under climate change. The results show that the Bakhtiari reservoir and power plant will not meet the design-capacity outputs under the climate change condition as its large capacity cannot be fully utilized; while there is room for the further development of the Dez power plant. Comparing the results of the applied GCMs showed high discrepancies among the outputs of different models.

scholarly journals Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Saedi ◽  
Azadeh Ahmadi ◽  
Karim C. Abbaspour
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The climate change impact on water availability has become a significant cause for concern in the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran and similar reservoirs in arid regions. This study investigates the climate change impact on supplying water and water availability in the Zayandeh-Roud River Basin. For better management, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop a hydrologic model of the Basin. The model then was calibrated and validated for two upstream stations using the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP software. The impact of climate change was modeled by using data derived from five Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project general circulation models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For calibration (1991–2008), the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.75 and 0.61 at the Ghaleshahrokh and Eskandari stations were obtained, respectively. For validation (2009–2015), the NSE values were 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. The reservoir inflow would probably reduce by 40–50% during the period of 2020–2045 relative to the base period of 1981–2006. To evaluate the reservoir's future performance, a nonlinear optimization model was used to minimize water deficits. The highest annual water deficit would likely be around 847 MCM. The lowest reservoir reliability and the highest vulnerability occurred under the extreme RCP8.5 pathway.

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Climate Change Effects on Hydropower Potential in the Alcantara River Basin in Sicily (Italy)

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (19) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. T. Aronica ◽  
B. Bonaccorso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to hydropower generation, since it is a renewable, efficient, and reliable source of energy, as well as an effective tool to reduce the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities. At the same time, however, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to global warming, because water resources are closely linked to climate changes. Indeed, the effects of climate change on water availability are expected to affect hydropower generation with special reference to southern countries, which are supposed to face dryer conditions in the next decades. The aim of this paper is to qualitatively assess the impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime of the Alcantara River basin, eastern Sicily (Italy), based on Monte Carlo simulations. Synthetic series of daily rainfall and temperature are generated, based on observed data, through a first-order Markov chain and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, respectively, for the current scenario and two future scenarios at 2025. In particular, relative changes in the monthly mean and standard deviation values of daily rainfall and temperature at 2025, predicted by the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, are adopted to generate future values of precipitation and temperature. Synthetic series for the two climatic scenarios are then introduced as input into the Identification of Unit Hydrographs and Component Flows from Rainfall, Evapotranspiration and Streamflow Data (IHACRES) model to simulate the hydrological response of the basin. The effects of climate change are investigated by analyzing potential modification of the resulting flow duration curves and utilization curves, which allow a site's energy potential for the design of run-of-river hydropower plants to be estimated.

scholarly journals Assessing climate change impact on the hydropower potential of the Bamboi catchment (Black Volta, West Africa)

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 349-354
Author(s):  
Yacouba Yira ◽  
Tariro Cynthia Mutsindikwa ◽  
Aymar Yaovi Bossa ◽  
Jean Hounkpè ◽  
Seyni Salack
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of future climate change (CC) on the hydropower generation potential of the Bamboi catchment (Black Volta) in West Africa using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV light) and regional climate models (RCMs)–global climate models (GCMs). Two climate simulation datasets MPI-ESM-REMO (CORDEX) and GFDL-ESM2M-WRF (WASCAL) under RCP4.5 were applied to the validated hydrological model to simulate the catchment runoff. Based on reference and future simulated discharges, a theoretical 1.3 MW run of river hydro power plant was designed to evaluate the hydropower generation. Hydrological and hydropower generation changes were expressed as the relative difference between two future periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099) and a reference period (1983–2005). The climate models' ensemble projected a mean annual precipitation increase by 8.8 % and 7.3 % and discharge increase by 11.4 % and 9.735 % for the 2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods respectively (for bias corrected data). On the contrary an overall decrease of hydropower generation by −9.1 % and −8.4% for the 2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods was projected respectively. The results indicate that projected increases in discharge should not solely be considered as leading to an increase in hydropower potential when prospecting climate change impact on hydropower.

scholarly journals Accounting for uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity hotspots in Spain

2019 ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Romero ◽  
J. Olivero ◽  
R. Real
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Biodiversity Hotspots ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Vertebrate Species ◽  
Taxonomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Our limited understanding of the complexity of nature generates uncertainty in mathematical and cartographical models used to predict the effects of climate change on species’ distributions. We developed predictive models of distributional range shifts of threatened vertebrate species in mainland Spain, and in their accumulation in biodiversity hotspots due to climate change. We considered two relevant sources of climatological uncertainty that affect predictions of future climate: general circulation models and socio–economic scenarios. We also examined the relative importance of climate as a driver of species’ distribution and taxonomic uncertainty as additional biogeographical causes of uncertainty. Uncertainty was detected in all the forecasts derived from models in which climate was a significant explanatory factor, and in the species with taxonomic uncertainty. Uncertainty in forecasts was mainly located in areas not occupied by the species, and increased with time difference from the present. Mapping this uncertainty allowed us to assess the consistency of predictions regarding future changes in the distribution of hotspots of threatened vertebrates in Spain.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Spatiotemporal Hotspots of Hydrologic Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of Chinan Catchment, Taiwan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Chun Peng ◽  
Yu-Pin Lin ◽  
Guan-Wei Chen ◽  
Wan-Yu Lien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Integrated Valuation ◽  
Sediment Export ◽  
The Impact

Hydrologic ecosystem services are greatly affected by the changing climate. In this study, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used to quantify hydrologic ecosystem services. Five general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were selected to estimate hydrologic ecosystem services. The Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) index was used to identify hydrologic ecosystem hotspots. The hotspots were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the services. Results indicate that annual water yields vary from −17% to 8%, with significant intra-year fluctuation. Compared to baseline data, the CESM1-CAM5 predicts an increase of 45% in June, but HadGEM2-AO predicts a drop to only 12% in January. Sediment export results show a similar trend to water yield, with sediment export increasing significantly under RCP 8.5, and monthly sediment export increases concentrated from June and October. Nitrogen and phosphorous exports both show less significant changes but obvious intra-year variations. The CESM1-CAM5 predicts strong seasonal and spatial variation of the hydrologic ecosystem services. Our proposed approach successfully identifies annual and monthly hotspot spatial changes of hydrologic ecosystem services under climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliano Assunção ◽  
Flávia Chein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Perspectives ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.

scholarly journals Climate Change Effects on Spatiotemporal Patterns of Hydroclimatological Summer Droughts in Norway

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1205-1220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai Kwok Wong ◽  
Stein Beldring ◽  
Torill Engen-Skaugen ◽  
Ingjerd Haddeland ◽  
Hege Hisdal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the impact of climate change on droughts in Norway. A spatially distributed (1 × 1 km2) version of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) precipitation-runoff model was used to provide hydrological data for the analyses. Downscaled daily temperature and precipitation derived from two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models with two future emission scenarios were applied as input to the HBV model. The differences in hydroclimatological drought characteristics in the summer season between the periods 1961–90 and 2071–2100 were studied. The threshold level method was adopted to select drought events for both present and future climates. Changes in both the duration and spatial extent of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater droughts were identified. Despite small changes in future meteorological drought characteristics, substantial increases in hydrological drought duration and drought affected areas are expected, especially in the southern and northernmost parts of the country. Reduced summer precipitation is a major factor that affects changes in drought characteristics in the south while temperature increases play a more dominant role for the rest of the country.

Interpreting Results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX Ensembles in the Context of Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Projections

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (10) ◽  
pp. 2093-2106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambarish V. Karmalkar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTwo ensembles of dynamically downscaled climate simulations for North America—the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) featuring simulations for North America (NA-CORDEX)—are analyzed to assess the impact of using a small set of global general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) on representing uncertainty in regional projections. Selecting GCMs for downscaling based on their equilibrium climate sensitivities is a reasonable strategy, but there are regions where the uncertainty is not fully captured. For instance, the six NA-CORDEX GCMs fail to span the full ranges produced by models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in summer temperature projections in the western and winter precipitation projections in the eastern United States. Similarly, the four NARCCAP GCMs are overall poor at spanning the full CMIP3 ranges in seasonal temperatures. For the Southeast, the NA-CORDEX GCMs capture the uncertainty in summer but not in winter projections, highlighting one consequence of downscaling a subset of GCMs. Ranges produced by the RCMs are often wider than their driving GCMs but are sensitive to the experimental design. For example, the downscaled projections of summer precipitation are of opposite polarity in two RCM ensembles in some regions. Additionally, the ability of the RCMs to simulate observed temperature trends is affected by the internal variability characteristics of both the RCMs and driving GCMs, and is not systematically related to their historical performance. This has implications for adequately sampling the impact of internal variability on regional trends and for using model performance to identify credible projections. These findings suggest that a multimodel perspective on uncertainties in regional projections is integral to the interpretation of RCM results.

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