Measuring drought based on a CGE model with multi-regional irrigation water

Water Policy ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 877-891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuai Zhong ◽  
Jinghua Sha ◽  
Lei Shen ◽  
Mitsuru Okiyama ◽  
Suminori Tokunaga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Rural Households ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Economic Perspective ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
External Impact

There have been many droughts in China that have caused severe losses. Previous studies evaluating droughts were from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. We measure the Chinese drought of 2000 based on a static computable general equilibrium model of China's macroeconomy, which describes the relationships between drought, agricultural production, and rural households' welfare from an economic perspective. In the model, the irrigation water inputs of the 16 regions of China are estimated and combined with the same regions' cropland inputs. Thus, the drought is simulated as an external impact by reducing the productivity of different crops in different regions. The reductions in 10 crop outputs and the rural households' welfare, total consumption and food consumption from 16 regions are more severe than those from a perfect market reaction. The findings herein are also distinct in that the five rural households that suffer most as a result of drought are from southern areas. The results provide an available reference for the Chinese government's decision on what measures to take to prevent drought and its impacts. The model can be further improved by incorporating meteorological and hydrological models to identify droughts using more accurate indexes.

scholarly journals Impact analysis of reducing multi-provincial irrigation subsidies in China: a policy simulation based on a CGE model

Water Policy ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 216-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuai Zhong ◽  
Lei Shen ◽  
Litao Liu ◽  
Chao Zhang ◽  
Ming Shen
Keyword(s):  
Food Consumption ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Rural Households ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Demand Elasticity

Water pricing policy is believed to be an efficient method for addressing the water scarcity problem in China. The motivation of this study is to provide a better understanding of how reducing irrigation subsidies impacts farming sectors and rural households. We apply a Computable General Equilibrium model to simulate the irrigation water and irrigation subsidy in 16 provinces. The results show that reducing irrigation has great potential for resolving the water scarcity problem in China, especially for the provinces with high subsidy levels such as Guangdong, Shandong, and Jilin. The declines in farming outputs are significant, and then their producer prices and imports increase. Rural households suffer serious losses in food consumption, particularly for those in Jilin, Guangdong, and Shandong. As for policy recommendation, improving the mobility of cropland should be given greater attention for promoting water conservation, and improving the mobility of agricultural labor could mitigate the losses in the farming outputs and in the food consumption for rural households in most provinces. Reduction in irrigation subsidy as a policy option should be adopted gradually, and then increasing the water demand elasticity should be taken into account when the irrigation water price is close to the full-cost recovery level.

scholarly journals Trade Barrier Elimination, Economics of Scale and Market Competition: Computable General Equilibrium Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-216
Author(s):  
Widyastutik Widyastutik ◽  
Suahasil Nazara ◽  
Rina Oktaviani ◽  
Djamester Simarmata
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
Competitive Effects ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Economics Of Scale ◽  
Transport Services

The ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries agreed to reduce trade barriers in the services sector, one of which is sea transport services. The purpose of this study is to estimate the equivalent tax of non-tariff barriers in the sea transport services. Besides that, this study is going to analyze the economic impacts of the regulatory barriers elimination in the sea transport services of ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries. Using the gravity model, it can be identified that trade barriers of sea transport services sector of ASEAN and dialogue partner countries are still relatively high. Additionally, by adopting IC-IRTS model in Global CGE Model (GTAP), the simulation results show consistent results with the theory of pro-competitive effects. The greater gain from trade is obtained in the CGE model assuming IC-IRTS compared to PC-CRTS. China gains a greater benefit that is indicated by the highest increase in welfare and GDP followed by Japan and AustraliaDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5279

Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenebe Gebreegziabher ◽  
Jesper Stage ◽  
Alemu Mekonnen ◽  
Atlaw Alemu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Average Income ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Autonomous Adaptation ◽  
Ricardian Model ◽  
Adaptation Policies ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThe paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced fluctuations on the performance of Ethiopia's agriculture, using a countrywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We model the impacts on agriculture using a Ricardian model, where current agricultural production is modelled as a function of temperature and precipitation, among other things, and where future agriculture is assumed to follow the same climate function. The effect of overall climate change is projected to be relatively benign until approximately 2030, but will become considerably worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, over a 50-year period, the projected reduction in agricultural productivity may lead to reductions in average income of some 20 per cent compared with the outcome that would have prevailed in the absence of climate change. This indicates that adaptation policies – both government planned and those that ease autonomous adaptation by farmers – will be crucial for Ethiopia's future development.

scholarly journals Risk Of Corruption For Economic Growth And Poverty: The Case Of A Developing Country

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-139
Author(s):  
François Joseph Cabral
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Finance Management ◽  
Yearly Incidence ◽  
Average Loss ◽  
Welfare And Poverty ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

In this article, we attempt to assess the effects of corruption on economic growth, welfare and poverty in Senegal, using the dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE). The profile of fiscal governance is firstly built based on data relied to Global integrity, Open budget initiative and Public finance management reports for Senegal. Secondly, we build a CGE model based on the SAM of Senegalese economy. The simulation results show leakage of 10% of public investment as a result of corruption, which would effectively lead to an average loss of 2.6% points of economic growth per year. The welfare of households fall on average by 0.64% point per year. Moreover, the diversion of resources meant for public investment also has the effect of increasing the yearly incidence of poverty by 0.51% point on average, which is equivalent to 61,136 new poor every year.

scholarly journals Designing Optimum Water-Saving Policy in China Using Quantity and Price Control Mechanisms

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2529
Author(s):  
Khampheng Boudmyxay ◽  
Shuai Zhong ◽  
Lei Shen
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Water Policy ◽  
Rural Households ◽  
Price Control ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Agricultural Water ◽  
Water Planning ◽  
The Government ◽  
Negative Impacts

In an attempt to alleviate water scarcity, the government of China has introduced a water plan for the year 2030. Based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this paper investigates how conservation of irrigation water, grain production, and the welfare of rural households will be affected by planned reductions to the irrigation water subsidy between 2018 and 2030. Four policy instruments, namely quantitative control (QC), quantitative control with a subsidy reduction (QC-SR), price control (PC), and price control with a subsidy reduction (PC-SR) are employed in the model. Most existing research has found that reducing the irrigation subsidy will lead to significant negative impacts to the agricultural economy, and especially to rural households. These predicted negative impacts are a barrier to agricultural water policy pricing reform. However, the results of this research show that a provincial subsidy reduction to 1% between 2018 and 2030 will have an insignificant impact on agricultural production as well as rural household incomes and welfare, despite the subsidy rate currently accounting for more than 90% of the total irrigation value at the macro level in most provinces. Furthermore, PC will create a demand for irrigation water, which is predicted to rise to more than five times the agricultural water planning level currently set for 2030, and PC-SR will not achieve the agricultural water planning goal.

The Impact of the Public Expenditure Cuts Policy on the Labor Market in Vietnam

2012 ◽  
pp. 22-46
Author(s):  
Huong Nguyen Thi Lan ◽  
Toan Pham Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of public expenditure cuts on employment and income to support policies for the development of the labor mar- ket. Impact evaluation is of interest for policy makers as well as researchers. This paper presents a method – that is based on a Computable General Equilibrium model – to analyse the impact of the public expenditure cuts policy on employment and income in industries and occupations in Vietnam using macro data, the Input output table, 2006, 2008 and the 2010 Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document