The Role of Estuarine Modeling in Nutrient Control
Two case studies are presented to demonstrate how estuarine water quality models can be used in planning eutrophication control. In the first study, a steady-state model is used to assess the impact of point source phosphorus reduction on the phytoplankton biomass in the upper James Estuary in Virginia during the summer months. The modeling results indicate that phosphorus is in ample supply to support the phytoplankton growth in the system. However, substantial reduction of loads by phosphorus removal at the wastewater treatment plants would lead to a phosphorus limiting condition thereby lowering the phytoplankton biomass levels. In the second study, a time-variable model is developed to investigate the potential of blue-green algal (Microcystis) blooms in the Neuse Estuary in North Carolina. More specifically, the model is designed to address two management questions. First, recognizing that high nonpoint nitrogen loads in the spring months would lead to a proliferation of non-nitrogen fixing blue-green genera, should parallel control of nitrogen be considered? Second, in light of the potential for algae species dominance to shift, is control of nitrogen fixing blue-green algal blooms possible? Based on the modeling calibration results using data from 1983, 1984 and 1985 under different hydrologic conditions, freshwater flow to the estuary is found to be a key factor in controlling blue-green algal blooms in the Neuse Estuary.