A normalized regression based regional model for generating flows at ungauged basins

2013 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-108
Author(s):  
Borislava Blagojević ◽  
Jasna Plavšić
Keyword(s):  
Input Data ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Ungauged Basins ◽  
Model Parameter ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Two Parameter

Revision of existing methodologies for generating monthly-flow series at ungauged basins based on multivariate nonlinear correlation has led to a simple two-parameter model. While the existing methodology used hydrological, meteorological and geomorphologic input data, the proposed model requires hydrological and geomorphologic input data only. The proposed methodology requires formation of separate pools of donor catchments for model parameter estimates. The proposed two-parameter model and improvement in the sphere of homogeneous region identification were verified using 195 runoff data sets from hydrologic stations in Serbia in the 1961–2005 period, divided into three non-overlapping 15-year periods. Nash-Sutcliffe's model efficiency coefficient (NSE) was used to assess the: (1) quality of proposed model with identified model parameters; (2) quality of a nonlinear multivariate equation for standard normal variables estimation with identified model parameters; (3) quality of proposed model with model parameter estimates. Generated time-series statistics and nonlinear multivariate equation quality are also evaluated. Five model calibration and validation results are shown. Generated flow series variation coefficient is the best replicated statistics with relative absolute error less than 10%.

Optimized blood sampling protocols and sequential design of kinetic experiments

1981 ◽  
Vol 240 (5) ◽  
pp. R259-R265 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. DiStefano
Keyword(s):  
Endocrine System ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Blood Sampling ◽  
Optimal Designs ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Reverse T3 ◽  
Model Parameter ◽  
Maximum Accuracy ◽  
Sampling Protocols

Design of optimal blood sampling protocols for kinetic experiments is discussed and evaluated, with the aid of several examples--including an endocrine system case study. The criterion of optimality is maximum accuracy of kinetic model parameter estimates. A simple example illustrates why a sequential experiment approach is required; optimal designs depend on the true model parameter values, knowledge of which is usually a primary objective of the experiment, as well as the structure of the model and the measurement error (e.g., assay) variance. The methodology is evaluated from the results of a series of experiments designed to quantify the dynamics of distribution and metabolism of three iodothyronines, T3, T4, and reverse-T3. This analysis indicates that 1) the sequential optimal experiment approach can be effective and efficient in the laboratory, 2) it works in the presence of reasonably controlled biological variation, producing sufficiently robust sampling protocols, and 3) optimal designs can be highly efficient designs in practice, requiring for maximum accuracy a number of blood samples equal to the number of independently adjustable model parameters, no more or less.

scholarly journals Selection of catchment descriptors for the physical similarity approach. Part II: Application

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (No. 4) ◽  
pp. 186-194
Author(s):  
M. Heřmanovský ◽  
P. Pech
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Physical Similarity ◽  
Model Parameter ◽  
Soil Moisture Accounting ◽  
Estimated Parameters ◽  
Selection Of

This paper demonstrates an application of the previously published method for selection of optimal catchment descriptors, according to which similar catchments can be identified for the purpose of estimation of the Sacramento – Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model parameters for a set of tested catchments, based on the physical similarity approach. For the purpose of the analysis, the following data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project were taken: a priori model parameter sets used as reference values for comparison with the newly estimated parameters, and catchment descriptors of four categories (climatic descriptors, soil properties, land cover and catchment morphology). The inverse clustering method, with Andrews’ curves for a homogeneity check, was used for the catchment grouping process. The optimal catchment descriptors were selected on the basis of two criteria, one comparing different subsets of catchment descriptors of the same size (MIN), the other one evaluating the improvement after addition of another catchment descriptor (MAX). The results suggest that the proposed method and the two criteria used may lead to the selection of a subset of conditionally optimal catchment descriptors from a broader set of them. As expected, the quality of the resulting subset of optimal catchment descriptors is mainly dependent on the number and type of the descriptors in the broader set. In the presented case study, six to seven catchment descriptors (two climatic, two soil and at least two land-cover descriptors) were identified as optimal for regionalisation of the SAC-SMA model parameters for a set of MOPEX catchments.

scholarly journals A New Extended Two-Parameter Distribution: Properties, Estimation Methods, and Applications in Medicine and Geology

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 1578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hazem Al-Mofleh ◽  
Ahmed Z. Afify ◽  
Noor Akma Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Parameter Distribution ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Rate Functions ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Modeling Data ◽  
Two Parameter

In this paper, a new two-parameter generalized Ramos–Louzada distribution is proposed. The proposed model provides more flexibility in modeling data with increasing, decreasing, J-shaped, and reversed-J shaped hazard rate functions. Several statistical properties of the model were derived. The unknown parameters of the new distribution were explored using eight frequentist estimation approaches. These approaches are important for developing guidelines to choose the best method of estimation for the model parameters, which would be of great interest to practitioners and applied statisticians. Detailed numerical simulations are presented to examine the bias and the mean square error of the proposed estimators. The best estimation method and ordering performance of the estimators were determined using the partial and overall ranks of all estimation methods for various parameter combinations. The performance of the proposed distribution is illustrated using two real datasets from the fields of medicine and geology, and both datasets show that the new model is more appropriate as compared to the Marshall–Olkin exponential, exponentiated exponential, beta exponential, gamma, Poisson–Lomax, Lindley geometric, generalized Lindley, and Lindley distributions, among others.

scholarly journals Deep Learning-Based Optimal Smart Shoes Sensor Selection for Energy Expenditure and Heart Rate Estimation

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (21) ◽  
pp. 7058
Author(s):  
Heesang Eom ◽  
Jongryun Roh ◽  
Yuli Sun Hariyani ◽  
Suwhan Baek ◽  
Sukho Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Energy Expenditure ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Pressure Sensors ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Point Pressure

Wearable technologies are known to improve our quality of life. Among the various wearable devices, shoes are non-intrusive, lightweight, and can be used for outdoor activities. In this study, we estimated the energy consumption and heart rate in an environment (i.e., running on a treadmill) using smart shoes equipped with triaxial acceleration, triaxial gyroscope, and four-point pressure sensors. The proposed model uses the latest deep learning architecture which does not require any separate preprocessing. Moreover, it is possible to select the optimal sensor using a channel-wise attention mechanism to weigh the sensors depending on their contributions to the estimation of energy expenditure (EE) and heart rate (HR). The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Moreover, the RMSE was 1.05 ± 0.15, MAE 0.83 ± 0.12 and R2 0.922 ± 0.005 in EE estimation. On the other hand, and RMSE was 7.87 ± 1.12, MAE 6.21 ± 0.86, and R2 0.897 ± 0.017 in HR estimation. In both estimations, the most effective sensor was the z axis of the accelerometer and gyroscope sensors. Through these results, it is demonstrated that the proposed model could contribute to the improvement of the performance of both EE and HR estimations by effectively selecting the optimal sensors during the active movements of participants.

scholarly journals Estimation of Cough Peak Flow Using Cough Sounds

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasutaka Umayahara ◽  
Zu Soh ◽  
Kiyokazu Sekikawa ◽  
Toshihiro Kawae ◽  
Akira Otsuka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Face ◽  
And Gender

Cough peak flow (CPF) is a measurement to evaluate the risk of cough dysfunction and can be measured using various devices, such as spirometers. However, complex device setup and the face mask required to be firmly attached to the mouth impose burdens on both patients and their caregivers. Therefore, this study develops a novel cough strength evaluation method using cough sounds. This paper presents an exponential model to estimate CPF from the cough peak sound pressure level (CPSL). We investigated the relationship between cough sounds and cough flows and the effects of a measurement condition of cough sound, microphone type, and participant’s height and gender on CPF estimation accuracy. The results confirmed that the proposed model estimated CPF with a high accuracy. The absolute error between CPFs and estimated CPFs were significantly lower when the microphone distance from the participant’s mouth was within 30 cm than when the distance exceeded 30 cm. Analysis of the model parameters showed that the estimation accuracy was not affected by participant’s height or gender. These results indicate that the proposed model has the potential to improve the feasibility of measuring and assessing CPF.

scholarly journals An application of the ensemble Kalman filter in epidemiological modelling

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256227
Author(s):  
Rajnesh Lal ◽  
Weidong Huang ◽  
Zhenquan Li
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Parameter ◽  
Reliable Model ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Parameter Estimation Methods

Since the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China, and due to the open accessibility of COVID-19 data, several researchers and modellers revisited the classical epidemiological models to evaluate their practical applicability. While mathematical compartmental models can predict various contagious viruses’ dynamics, their efficiency depends on the model parameters. Recently, several parameter estimation methods have been proposed for different models. In this study, we evaluated the Ensemble Kalman filter’s performance (EnKF) in the estimation of time-varying model parameters with synthetic data and the real COVID-19 data of Hubei province, China. Contrary to the previous works, in the current study, the effect of damping factors on an augmented EnKF is studied. An augmented EnKF algorithm is provided, and we present how the filter performs in estimating models using uncertain observational (reported) data. Results obtained confirm that the augumented-EnKF approach can provide reliable model parameter estimates. Additionally, there was a good fit of profiles between model simulation and the reported COVID-19 data confirming the possibility of using the augmented-EnKF approach for reliable model parameter estimation.

scholarly journals Applying Hierarchical Bayesian Neural Network in Failure Time Prediction

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling-Jing Kao ◽  
Hsin-Fen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Training Sample ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Bayesian Neural Network ◽  
Time Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model

With the rapid technology development and improvement, the product failure time prediction becomes an even harder task because only few failures in the product life tests are recorded. The classical statistical model relies on the asymptotic theory and cannot guarantee that the estimator has the finite sample property. To solve this problem, we apply the hierarchical Bayesian neural network (HBNN) approach to predict the failure time and utilize the Gibbs sampler of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate model parameters. In this proposed method, the hierarchical structure is specified to study the heterogeneity among products. Engineers can use the heterogeneity estimates to identify the causes of the quality differences and further enhance the product quality. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian neural network model, the prediction performance of the proposed model is evaluated using multiple performance measurement criteria. Sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is also conducted using different number of hidden nodes and training sample sizes. The result shows that HBNN can provide not only the predictive distribution but also the heterogeneous parameter estimates for each path.

Simultaneous Determination of Skeletal Model Parameter Values, Motions, and Controls From Noisy Measurement Data

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael G. Fattey ◽  
Benjamin J. Fregly
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Dynamics ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
Biomechanical Model ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Parameter ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Cadaver Studies

Accurate model parameter value and motion determination is important for obtaining reliable results from inverse dynamics analyses of gait. If the model parameters do not properly match their true values, the predicted motions and loads may lose their clinical significance [1]. Typical approaches to biomechanical model parameter estimation have included the use of scaling rules based on cadaver studies [2] and the use of multi-level optimization routines [3,4]. However, scaling rules do not provide optimal parameter estimates, and multi-level optimization techniques are computationally expensive.

A DYNAMIC-STOCHASTIC PRINCIPLE OF MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu. A. Gusman ◽  
◽  
Yu. A. Pichugin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Mathematical Simulation ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Model Parameter ◽  
Stochastic Nature ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

The paper considers the dynamic-stochastic approach to the construction and use of predictive models, which is based on the stochastic nature of model parameter estimates. A mathematical apparatus for generating perturbations of model parameters in accordance with their probability distribution is proposed.

scholarly journals The importance of calibration parameters on the accuracy of the floods description in the Snyder’s model

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Wałęga
Keyword(s):  
Peak Flow ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Objective Functions ◽  
Work Model ◽  
Squared Residuals ◽  
Flood Waves ◽  
Calibration Parameters

Abstract Comparison of quality of Snyder’s model for determination flood waves was examination in this work. Model parameters were calibrated based on objective functions: percentage error in peak flow (PEPF), percentage error in volume (PEV), peak-weighted root mean square error (PWRMSE), sum of absolute residuals (SAR) and sum of squared residuals (SSR). Quality of model was calculating by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient E. Additionally sensitivity of a model was characterized by its flexibility. The analyses were performed in the watershed of Grabinka. It has been found that the use PWRMSE as the objective function allows to obtain the best quality results of simulation. Furthermore, Snyder’s model is flexible to the change of Cp coefficient.

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