scholarly journals Prediction of the Transition From Subexponential to the Exponential Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Chennai, India: Epidemic Nowcasting

10.2196/21152 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e21152
Author(s):  
Kamalanand Krishnamurthy ◽  
Bakiya Ambikapathy ◽  
Ashwani Kumar ◽  
Lourduraj De Britto
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
National Level ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
The Public ◽  
Secondary Infections ◽  
The City

Background Several countries adopted lockdown to slowdown the exponential transmission of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. Disease transmission models and the epidemic forecasts at the national level steer the policy to implement appropriate intervention strategies and budgeting. However, it is critical to design a data-driven reliable model for nowcasting for smaller populations, in particular metro cities. Objective The aim of this study is to analyze the transition of the epidemic from subexponential to exponential transmission in the Chennai metro zone and to analyze the probability of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) secondary infections while availing the public transport systems in the city. Methods A single geographical zone “Chennai-Metro-Merge” was constructed by combining Chennai District with three bordering districts. Subexponential and exponential models were developed to analyze and predict the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic. Probabilistic models were applied to assess the probability of secondary infections while availing public transport after the release of the lockdown. Results The model predicted that transition from subexponential to exponential transmission occurs around the eighth week after the reporting of a cluster of cases. The probability of secondary infections with a single index case in an enclosure of the city bus, the suburban train general coach, and the ladies coach was found to be 0.192, 0.074, and 0.114, respectively. Conclusions Nowcasting at the early stage of the epidemic predicts the probable time point of the exponential transmission and alerts the public health system. After the lockdown release, public transportation will be the major source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in metro cities, and appropriate strategies based on nowcasting are needed.

Prediction of the Transition From Subexponential to the Exponential Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Chennai, India: Epidemic Nowcasting (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamalanand Krishnamurthy ◽  
Bakiya Ambikapathy ◽  
Ashwani Kumar ◽  
Lourduraj De Britto
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
National Level ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
The Public ◽  
Secondary Infections ◽  
The City

BACKGROUND Several countries adopted lockdown to slowdown the exponential transmission of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. Disease transmission models and the epidemic forecasts at the national level steer the policy to implement appropriate intervention strategies and budgeting. However, it is critical to design a data-driven reliable model for nowcasting for smaller populations, in particular metro cities. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to analyze the transition of the epidemic from subexponential to exponential transmission in the Chennai metro zone and to analyze the probability of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) secondary infections while availing the public transport systems in the city. METHODS A single geographical zone “Chennai-Metro-Merge” was constructed by combining Chennai District with three bordering districts. Subexponential and exponential models were developed to analyze and predict the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic. Probabilistic models were applied to assess the probability of secondary infections while availing public transport after the release of the lockdown. RESULTS The model predicted that transition from subexponential to exponential transmission occurs around the eighth week after the reporting of a cluster of cases. The probability of secondary infections with a single index case in an enclosure of the city bus, the suburban train general coach, and the ladies coach was found to be 0.192, 0.074, and 0.114, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Nowcasting at the early stage of the epidemic predicts the probable time point of the exponential transmission and alerts the public health system. After the lockdown release, public transportation will be the major source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in metro cities, and appropriate strategies based on nowcasting are needed.

scholarly journals What's the cause of the decrease in the number of angkot's passengers for LDG route in the city of Malang

2018 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 10007
Author(s):  
Budi Sugiarto Waloeya ◽  
Imma Widyawati Agustin ◽  
Dadang Meru Utomo
Keyword(s):  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Driver Behavior ◽  
The Public ◽  
Route Information ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
The City

Increasing the number of population every year in the city of Malang makes the increase also the number of private vehicle users who trigger the occurrence of congestion and lack of public interest to ride public transport, especially in terms of operation and service of public transportation. The main purpose of the research is to explore factors causing the decrease of public transport passengers for LDG route. The research used Importance Performance Analysis. The results showed that the main factors causing the decrease of the number of passengers on the LDG route in Malang City based on the public perception such as driver behavior, the condition of the transport (inside and outside), transportation hygiene, the availability of place to put luggage, the availability of seating, the availability of route / route information LDG transport, duration of stop transportation time at the terminal, and length of travel time.

scholarly journals Public Transport Mode Model Selection for public Transport Users in the City of Makassar Based on the Change of Speed Travel Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Syahlendra Syahlendra
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Travel Speed ◽  
The Public ◽  
Transportation Modes ◽  
Public Transportation System ◽  
Selection For ◽  
The City

The increasing number of private vehicles shows that the public transportation system in Makassar has not been maximized. this is also due to the absence of other alternative public transportation modes that can be used by the community in their activities. This study aims to determine the preference of public modes of choice if offered other alternatives, especially public transport with greater capacity. Public transportation offered in this study is busway and monorail. In this study the community was faced with 3 modes of choice namely city transportation, monorail, and busway. The data collection method used was a survey with stated preference based questionnaires, which reviewed nine conditions for variable change in travel speed. The construction of the model was carried out using STATA software and city transportation was used as the base outcome. The model is based on discrete selection models and is analyzed by the multinomial logit model. The results showed that in the nine conditions of change in travel speed, the mode of city transportation was still more dominantly chosen by the community.

scholarly journals Exploring the Interoperability of Public Transport Systems for Sustainable Mobility in Developing Cities: Lessons from Johannesburg Metropolitan City, South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 5875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trynos Gumbo ◽  
Thembani Moyo
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
The State ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Transit Systems ◽  
The Public ◽  
Metropolitan City ◽  
Local Moran’S I Index

There have been growing concerns with regards to the state public transportation systems, particularly in the cities of developing countries. Chief among these concerns has been the lack of well-coordinated, efficient, and reliable transportation systems. The city of Johannesburg, just like any other fast-growing municipality in developing and emerging economies, has not been spared with regards to incessant public transport challenges. Consequently, there have been collective efforts from both public and private stakeholders to invest immensely in both innovative rail and road transport systems in the past decade. This article sought to achieve twin objectives. First, the work identified the state of connectivity between the rapid rail transportation and rapid bus transit systems based on Geoweb 2.0 data. Second, the work visualized the level of connectivity between these two modes to develop and formulate policy frameworks in integrating public transit systems in cities of the developing world, learning from the metropolitan city of Johannesburg. A mixed-method approach consisting of spatial and quantitative aspects was used to examine the state of connectedness and the promotion of access and mobility between the two modes. The local Moran’s I index was used to compute node clusters within the public transport system. Results from the analysis demonstrated that both high-clusters and low-clusters exist in the public transportation network, which have a high degree of centrality. It was revealed that commuters navigate from these nodes/stops with relative ease due to the short walking radius. However, the work revealed that most rail networks and bus routes, as well as the stations and bus stops, are not connected and are not significant in the local Moran’s I index, thus, making it difficult for commuters to conveniently move from the Gautrain to the Rea Vaya bus. There are, therefore, gaps with regards to the sharing of infrastructure between the two public transport modes and systems.

scholarly journals Level of Service Research of Public Transport Facilities: A Access of Trivandrum City

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S8) ◽  
pp. 1215-1218
Keyword(s):  
Transport System ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Transport System ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
The City

Public transportation is one of the sustainable form of transportation which provides mobility options for the people. The public transport services are very basic need of people’s lives, especially in developing world. It is the basic means for mobility of a large percent of people and hence it is the driving force of economic and social life. Quality of service, characterized by the Level-of-Service (LoS) is one of the major factors determining the demand for public transport. This study tries to determine the city-wide Level-of-Service provided by the public transport system using the service level benchmarks as a case study of Trivandrum city. The indicators for determining the Level-of-Service used in the study are presence of organized public transport system, availability or extend of public transport supply, service coverage, average waiting time, level of comfort in public transport and the fleet availability. This approach can be used to determine the LoS at the city-level and thus provides a measure for identifying the public transport quality of an urban area.

scholarly journals Design for Smart Transport: An Integrated Multi-Modal Transport Interchange in Central Christchurch

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Joey Moh
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Urban Life ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Urban Structure ◽  
Sustainable City ◽  
The Public ◽  
Organisational Form ◽  
The City

<p>Transportation, an essential component of modern life, is responsible for one of the biggest growth  areas of our greenhouse gas emissions which causes problem for our environment and the economy. New  Zealand cities face the same issues as many other cities in the globalised world. This thesis  analyses the integration of all the public transport systems to encourage people to get out of the  car and reduce the traffic volume within the city centre to develop with the aim of developing a  sustainable city towards the future. Drivers in New Zealand believe commuter stress could be  significantly reduced by improving public transport. The design calls for a new central transport  interchange for all the public transport systems within Christchurch city to form a spectacular  gateway to the city. The aim of the design is to create a unified urban structure in which diverse  infrastructural and public elements merge together to form one building. The outcome of this research identifies a strong future for a public transport interchange, but  states that its physical and organisational form needs to be re-established. It finds that  technology and architecture offer new opportunities useful for reinterpreting the typology. The  thesis concludes that future public transport interchanges will become hybrids of activity, and  places where the threads of urban life are joined together. The interchanges can become a major  catalyst of urban regeneration - a focus for commerce and the flow of ideas as well as the movement of people.</p>

Comparative analysis of time spent by the fire department on call of elderly victims fall in collective transport.

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 204
Author(s):  
Priscilla Hellen Blanco ◽  
Mario Moreira Castilho ◽  
Eraldo Schunk Silva ◽  
Lucia Elaine Ranieri Cortez
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fire Department ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
The Public ◽  
Collective Transport ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
Care Of Elderly ◽  
The City

Introduction: The public transport is a major form of transportation in the cities and the increasing elderly population became many users this means of transport. Objective: The objective of the research was to compare the time spent by the fire department in the care of elderly fall victims in mass transportation between two cities. Method: Data were collected by analyzing the database record of the overall occurrences of the fire department on the fall of elderly people in public transport in the cities of Curitiba and Maringá between the years 2005-2012. Collected were the region the city where the event occurred; hospitals for referral of victims and the time spent in attending these events by teams of firemen from the cities. Results: Increased occurrence of falls in the elderly collective transport four times in Maringá was observed. The frequency of these occurrences happened mainly in the central region in both cities and time attendance differed significantly and in Maringa most visits took place within an hour and Curitiba with over an hour. Conclusion: We conclude that further studies should be conducted and management strategies of public transportation employees so they can improve the time spent on mobile medical care.

scholarly journals Multi-stakeholder dialogue on formal and informal forms of public transport in Harare, Zimbabwe: Convergence or divergence perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatenda Mbara ◽  
Smart Dumba ◽  
Tapiwa Mukwashi
Keyword(s):  
Transport System ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Policy Dialogue ◽  
Transit System ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Transport System ◽  
Multi Stakeholder ◽  
The City

Cities in the developing world are growing both geographically and demographically. Thisgrowth has increased pressure on services, including the public transport systems used bythe majority of people. In the last two decades public transport provision has undergoneconsiderable changes. Concomitant to these changes there has been debate on the formof public transport to be operated. Such debate has been informal, general, and at timesacademic, and therefore not able to provide substantive understanding of the views of keystakeholders. Zimbabwe has had an explosion of informal transport activity in the formof minibuses, and decision makers appear to be in a policy dilemma because of a need tostrike a balance between maximising passenger welfare whilst protecting the livelihoods ofindigenous minibus operators and striving to build an efficient and environmentally soundurban transport system. Critical questions for policy dialogue in this conundrum include,inter alia: How do stakeholders perceive the current public transport system? How can publictransport be sustainably provided? This study seeks to answer these questions using a casestudy of Harare. A qualitative research approach blended with some quantitative aspects wasused. Initial steps involved the identification and clustering of key urban public passengertransport stakeholders, followed by structured and unstructured interviews. Although thereis lack of consensus on the form of public transport that the City of Harare should adopt, thereis a strong view that a mass transit system is the backbone of sustainable public transport.

scholarly journals Level of Service Test on Public Transport Facilities in Trivandrum City

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S3) ◽  
pp. 1019-1022
Keyword(s):  
Transport System ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Transport System ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
The City

Public transportation is one of the sustainable form of transportation which provides mobility options for the people. The public transport services are very basic need of people’s lives, especially in developing world. It is the basic means for mobility of a large percent of people and hence it is the driving force of economic and social life. Quality of service, characterized by the Level-of-Service (LoS) is one of the major factors determining the demand for public transport. This study tries to determine the city-wide Level-of-Service provided by the public transport system using the service level benchmarks as a case study of Trivandrum city. The indicators for determining the Level-of-Service used in the study are presence of organized public transport system, availability or extend of public transport supply, service coverage, average waiting time, level of comfort in public transport and the fleet availability. This approach can be used to determine the LoS at the city-level and thus provides a measure for identifying the public transport quality of an urban area.

The Rio's transport legacy: pre- and post-Games resident perceptions

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiago Ribeiro ◽  
Victor Almeida
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Urban Mobility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Resident Perceptions ◽  
Before And After

PurposeThe Rio 2016 Olympic Games required a significant investment in the public transport systems, connecting four city's areas and providing different types of impacts and legacies for their hosts. The purpose of this paper is to examine resident perceptions of the public transportation issues in the Rio host city before and after the Games. Key factors underpinning transportation issue outcomes are identified.Design/methodology/approachData were collected among Rio local residents by using a pre-Games (n = 504) and post-Games design (n = 421). The cross-sectional and longitudinal data were assessed at both time periods. An exploratory factor analysis revealed five factors, and a confirmatory factor analysis analysed the psychometric properties of the constructs proposed. Subsequently, MANOVA and a series of ANOVA tests (one-way and paired samples) were performed to analyse the differences in perceptions before and after the Games.FindingsResults revealed a five-factor model of public transportation issues perceived: planning, infrastructure, insecurity, information and urban mobility. Resident perceptions for four factors (planning, infrastructure, insecurity, urban mobility) increased from pre- to post-Games, meaning that they have a more negative perspective about those issues. In contrast, the findings suggested an improvement in public transport information perceived between the period before and after the Games.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the academic literature related to discussing the Olympic legacy by providing evidence of how hosting the Olympics may lead to social exchange with negative outcomes on transport legacy. The findings of this study can be used as valuable information for future event organizers, local authorities and governments.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document