The US Public’s Perception of the Threat of COVID-19 During the Rapid Spread of the COVID-19 Outbreak: Cross-Sectional Survey Study

Background The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has made people uncertain about their perceptions of the threat of COVID-19 and COVID-19 response measures. To mount an effective response to this epidemic, it is necessary to understand the public's perceptions, behaviors, and attitudes. Objective We aimed to test the hypothesis that people’s perceptions of the threat of COVID-19 influence their attitudes and behaviors. Methods This study used an open dataset of web-based questionnaires about COVID-19. The questionnaires were provided by Nexoid United Kingdom. We selected the results of a questionnaire on COVID-19–related behaviors, attitudes, and perceptions among the US public. The questionnaire was conducted from March 29 to April 20, 2020. A total of 24,547 people who lived in the United States took part in the survey. Results In this study, the average self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 was 33.2%, and 49.9% (12,244/24,547) of the respondents thought that their chances of contracting COVID-19 were less than 30%. The self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 among women was 1.35 times that of males. A 5% increase in perceived infection risk was significantly associated with being 1.02 times (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.02-1.02; P<.001) more likely to report having close contact with >10 people, and being 1.01 times (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.01; P<.001) more likely to report that cohabitants disagreed with taking steps to reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19. However, there was no significant association between participants who lived with more than 5 cohabitants or less than 5 cohabitants (P=.85). Generally, participants who lived in states with 1001-10,000 COVID-19 cases, were aged 20-40 years, were obese, smoked, drank alcohol, never used drugs, and had no underlying medical conditions were more likely to be in close contact with >10 people. Most participants (21,017/24,547, 85.6%) agreed with washing their hands and maintaining social distancing, but only 20.2% (4958/24,547) of participants often wore masks. Additionally, male participants and participants aged <20 years typically disagreed with washing their hands, maintaining social distancing, and wearing masks. Conclusions This survey is the first attempt to describe the determinants of the US public’s perception of the threat of COVID-19 on a large scale. The self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 differed significantly based on the respondents’ genders, states of residence, ages, body mass indices, smoking habits, alcohol consumption habits, drug use habits, underlying medical conditions, environments, and behaviors. These findings can be used as references by public health policy makers and health care workers who want to identify populations that need to be educated on COVID-19 prevention and health.

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"Perception of Threat from COVID-19 Among the US Public During the Period of Rapid Spread of the COVID-19 Outbreak" (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.23400 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

XiaoLei Xiu ◽

Anran Wang ◽

Qing Qian ◽

Sizhu Wu

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Large Scale ◽

Close Contact ◽

Smoking Habit ◽

The United States ◽

Effective Response ◽

Perception Of Threat ◽

Rapid Spread ◽

The Us ◽

And Behaviors

BACKGROUND The period of the rapid spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States made people uncertain about their perception of the threat from COVID-19 and the response measures. To mount an effective response to this epidemic, it is necessary to understand the public's perceptions, behaviors and attitudes. OBJECTIVE To test hypotheses that the perception of a threat from COVID-19 influences attitudes and behaviors. METHODS This study used an open dataset of online questionnaires about COVID-19 provided by Nexoid, and selected the results of a questionnaire on behaviors, attitudes and perceptions related to COVID-19 among the US public from March 29 to April 20, 2020. In the end, a total of 466497 people living in the United States took part in the survey. RESULTS The average self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 in this study was 36.48%, and 43.5% of the respondents thought their chance of getting COVID-19 was less than 30%. The predicted mean self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 among males was 96.97% lower than that among females. Furthermore, compared with those who had close contact with less than 10 people, those who were in close contact with more than 10 people had a 67019.89% higher predicted mean self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 (b=6.51, P<0.001). Those who were engaged in critical work (b=7.90, P<0.001) had a mean self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 that was 270653.14% higher than that of those who worked at home. The odds of reporting disagreement with taking measures to reduce their personal risk were 14%, 17% and 29% lower for participants from states reporting 10001 to 20000 cases (OR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.79-0.94), 20001 to 40000 cases (OR=0.83, 95% CI: 0.75-0.91) and over 40001 COVID-19 cases (OR=0.71, 95% CI: 0.59-0.84), respectively, compared to those living in states with 1001 to 5000 cases. CONCLUSIONS This survey is the first attempt to describe on a large scale the determinants of the US public's perception of the threat from COVID-19. The self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 differed significantly based on the respondents’ gender, state of residence, age, BMI, smoking habit, alcohol consumption, drug use, disease, environment and behaviors. These findings have certain value as a reference for public health policy makers and healthcare workers seeking to identify target populations for COVID-19 prevention and health education.

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Impacts of Social Distancing on Pedestrian Behavior and Risk Perception

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting ◽

10.1177/1071181321651287 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 65 (1) ◽

pp. 1302-1306

Author(s):

Kyra B. Phillips ◽

Kelly N. Byrne ◽

Branden S. Kolarik ◽

Audra K. Krake ◽

Young C. Bui ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Risk Perception ◽

Perceived Risk ◽

Close Contact ◽

The United States ◽

Survey Study ◽

Pedestrian Behavior ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

Over Time

Since COVID-19 transmission accelerated in the United States in March 2020, guidelines have recommended that individuals wear masks and limit close contact by remaining at least six feet away from others, even while outdoors. Such behavior is important to help slow the spread of the global pandemic; however, it may require pedestrians to make critical decisions about entering a roadway in order to avoid others, potentially creating hazardous situations for both themselves and for drivers. In this survey study, we found that while overall patterns of self-reported pedestrian activity remained largely consistent over time, participants indicated increased willingness to enter active roadways when encountering unmasked pedestrians since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Participants also rated the risks of encountering unmasked pedestrians as greater than those associated with entering a street, though the perceived risk of passing an unmasked pedestrian on the sidewalk decreased over time.

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Diverse local epidemics reveal the distinct effects of population density, demographics, climate, depletion of susceptibles, and intervention in the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States

10.1101/2020.06.30.20143636 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Niayesh Afshordi ◽

Benjamin Holder ◽

Mohammad Bahrami ◽

Daniel Lichtblau

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Population Density ◽

The United States ◽

Effective Response ◽

Susceptible Population ◽

Local Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Mortality And Morbidity ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The Impact

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics and settlement, as well as the dynamic factors of climate, susceptible depletion, and intervention, on the spread of localized epidemics will be vital for mounting an effective response. We consider the entire set of local epidemics in the United States; a broad selection of demographic, population density, and climate factors; and local mobility data, tracking social distancing interventions, to determine the key factors driving the spread and containment of the virus. Assuming first a linear model for the rate of exponential growth (or decay) in cases/mortality, we find that population-weighted density, humidity, and median age dominate the dynamics of growth and decline, once interventions are accounted for. A focus on distinct metropolitan areas suggests that some locales benefited from the timing of a nearly simultaneous nationwide shutdown, and/or the regional climate conditions in mid-March; while others suffered significant outbreaks prior to intervention. Using a first-principles model of the infection spread, we then develop predictions for the impact of the relaxation of social distancing and local climate conditions. A few regions, where a significant fraction of the population was infected, show evidence that the epidemic has partially resolved via depletion of the susceptible population (i.e., “herd immunity”), while most regions in the United States remain overwhelmingly susceptible. These results will be important for optimal management of intervention strategies, which can be facilitated using our online dashboard.

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COVID-19 influences on US recreational angler behavior

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0254652 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (8) ◽

pp. e0254652

Author(s):

Stephen R. Midway ◽

Abigail J. Lynch ◽

Brandon K. Peoples ◽

Michael Dance ◽

Rex Caffey

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Stress Relief ◽

The United States ◽

Perceived Safety ◽

Us States ◽

Recreational Angling ◽

The Us ◽

Angler Behavior ◽

And Behaviors

Recreational angling in the United States (US) is largely a personal hobby that scales up to a multibillion-dollar economic activity. Given dramatic changes to personal decisions and behaviors resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, we surveyed recreational anglers across the US to understand how the pandemic may have affected their fishing motivations and subsequent activities. Nearly a quarter million anglers from 10 US states were invited to participate in the survey, and almost 18,000 responded. Anglers reported numerous effects of the pandemic, including fishing access restrictions. Despite these barriers, we found that the amount of fishing in the spring of 2020 was significantly greater—by about 0.2 trips per angler—than in non-pandemic springs. Increased fishing is likely associated with our result that most respondents considered recreational angling to be a COVID-19 safe activity. Nearly a third of anglers reported changing their motivation for fishing during the pandemic, with stress relief being more popular during the pandemic than before. Driven partly by the perceived safety of social fishtancing, recreational angling remained a popular activity for many US anglers during spring 2020.

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The Evolution of Professionalism as a Mode of Regulation: Evidence from the United States

Work Employment and Society ◽

10.1177/09500170211035297 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 095001702110352

Author(s):

Ian Kirkpatrick ◽

Sundeep Aulakh ◽

Daniel Muzio

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

The United States ◽

The Self ◽

Increasing Returns ◽

Documentary Sources ◽

Key Stakeholders ◽

The Us ◽

Path Dependent ◽

The Impact ◽

Mode Of Regulation

Opinion is divided on how far and in what ways professionalism as a mode of regulation has evolved. To date, attention has focused on the impact of neoliberal political and economic ideologies that challenge the idea that professions should be trusted to regulate themselves. This article further examines the impact of these attacks on professionalism and assesses whether they have triggered a process of decline. Drawing on a range of documentary sources from the US, it suggests that, while professional modes of regulation are evolving, the dominant pattern is one of continuity. The analysis also draws attention to the path-dependent nature of professionalism and how it is associated with increasing returns for key stakeholders: producers, government regulators and employers. The article’s main contribution is to highlight these trends empirically and raise questions about the accuracy and value of grand narratives that over-emphasise change and understate the self-reinforcing nature of professional modes of regulation.

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Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 under Different Reopening Strategies

10.1101/2020.05.26.20113993 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Meng Liu ◽

Raphael Thomadsen ◽

Song Yao

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Population Density ◽

The United States ◽

Sir Model ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Mobility Data ◽

The Social ◽

The Us ◽

Case Data

ABSTRACTWe combine COVID-19 case data with demographic and mobility data to estimate a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for the spread of this disease in the United States. We find that the incidence of infectious COVID-19 individuals has a concave effect on contagion, as would be expected if people have inter-related social networks. We also demonstrate that social distancing and population density have large effects on the rate of contagion. The social distancing in late March and April substantially reduced the number of COVID-19 cases. However, the concave contagion pattern means that when social distancing measures are lifted, the growth rate is considerable but will not be exponential as predicted by standard SIR models. Furthermore, counties with the lowest population density could likely avoid high levels of contagion even with no social distancing. We forecast rates of new cases for COVID-19 under different social distancing norms and find that if social distancing is eliminated there will be a massive increase in the cases of COVID-19, about double what would occur if the US only restored to 50% of the way to normalcy.

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Voces femeninas en la guerra de independencia de Cuba: Lila de Luáces y Eva Adán de Rodríguez

Caracol ◽

10.11606/issn.2317-9651.i20p486-511 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 486-511

Author(s):

Jorge Camacho

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

The United States ◽

The Self ◽

War Of Independence ◽

The Us ◽

Female Survivor ◽

The Way

During the war of independence in Cuba, which started in 1868 and lasted ten years, a number of texts appeared in Cuba and the United States detailing the conflict. All of these texts were written by men with the exception of one, published in the US, that was written by a woman. In this article I discuss this testimony and I compare it with another one published in Cuba after the war, also written by another female survivor. I discuss the way violence and the self is represented in these narrations, and most importantly how they build an archive of deeds to criticize Spain’s official (hi)story of the Cuban conflict.

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Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 under different reopening strategies

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-77292-8 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Meng Liu ◽

Raphael Thomadsen ◽

Song Yao

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Social Networks ◽

Exponential Growth ◽

The United States ◽

Sir Model ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Mobility Data ◽

The Us ◽

Case Data

AbstractWe combine COVID-19 case data with mobility data to estimate a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the United States. In contrast to a standard SIR model, we find that the incidence of COVID-19 spread is concave in the number of infectious individuals, as would be expected if people have inter-related social networks. This concave shape has a significant impact on forecasted COVID-19 cases. In particular, our model forecasts that the number of COVID-19 cases would only have an exponential growth for a brief period at the beginning of the contagion event or right after a reopening, but would quickly settle into a prolonged period of time with stable, slightly declining levels of disease spread. This pattern is consistent with observed levels of COVID-19 cases in the US, but inconsistent with standard SIR modeling. We forecast rates of new cases for COVID-19 under different social distancing norms and find that if social distancing is eliminated there will be a massive increase in the cases of COVID-19.

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Benchmarking COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

10.1101/2020.09.30.20204586 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ruth Etzioni ◽

Elan Markowitz ◽

Ivor S. Douglas

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Cumulative Incidence ◽

Ethnic Disparities ◽

The United States ◽

Age Group ◽

Effective Response ◽

Death Rates ◽

The Us ◽

Hispanic Populations ◽

Racial Ethnic

AbstractOn September 22nd the US officially recorded 200,000 COVID-19 deaths. It is unclear how many deaths might have been expected in the case of an early and effective response to the pandemic. We aim to provide a best-case estimate of COVID-19 deaths in the US by September 22nd using the experience of Germany as a benchmark. Our methods accommodate the differences in demographics between Germany and the US. We match cumulative incidence of COVID-19 deaths by age group in Germany to non-Hispanic whites in the US and project the implied number of deaths in this population and among the black and Hispanic populations under observed racial/ethnic disparities in cumulative COVID-19 mortality in the US. We estimate that if the US had been as successful as Germany in managing the pandemic we would have expected 22% of the deaths actually recorded. The number of deaths would have been lower by a further one-third if we could have eliminated racial/ethnic disparites in COVID-19 outcomes. We conclude that almost 80 percent of the COVID-19 deaths in the US by September 22nd could have been avoided with an early and effective response producing similar age-specific death rates among non-Hispanic whites as in Germany.

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Social Distancing Has Merely Stabilized COVID-19 in the US

10.1101/2020.04.27.20081836 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Aaron B. Wagner ◽

Elaine L. Hill ◽

Sean E. Ryan ◽

Ziteng Sun ◽

Grace Deng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

The United States ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Significant Evidence ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Point Estimates ◽

The Us ◽

The World

AbstractSocial distancing measures, with varying degrees of restriction, have been imposed around the world in order to stem the spread of COVID-19. In this work we analyze the effect of current social distancing measures in the United States. We quantify the reduction in doubling rate, by state, that is associated with social distancing. We find that social distancing is associated with a statistically-significant reduction in the doubling rate for all but three states. At the same time, we do not find significant evidence that social distancing has resulted in a reduction in the number of daily confirmed cases. Instead, social distancing has merely stabilized the spread of the disease. We provide an illustration of our findings for each state, including point estimates of the effective reproduction number, R, both with and without social distancing. We also discuss the policy implications of our findings.

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