Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination in Afghanistan (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Despite progress made in child survival in the past 20 years, 5.9 million children under five years died in 2015, with 9% of these deaths due to diarrhea. Rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of diarrhea deaths. In 2013, rotavirus was estimated to cause 215,000 deaths among children under five years, including 89,000 in Asia. As of April 2017, 92 countries worldwide have introduced rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization program. Afghanistan has applied for Gavi support to introduce rotavirus vaccination nationally. OBJECTIVE This study estimates the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus immunization program in Afghanistan. METHODS This study examined the use of Rotarix (RV1) administered using a two-dose schedule at 6 and 10 weeks of age. We used the ProVac Initiative's UNIVAC model (version 1.2.09) to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccine program compared with no vaccine over ten birth cohorts from 2017 to 2026 with a 3% annual discount rate. All monetary units are adjusted to 2017 US$. RESULTS Rotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan has the potential to avert more than one million cases; 660,000 outpatient visits; approximately 50,000 hospital admissions; 650,000 DALYs; and 12,000 deaths, over 10 years. Not accounting for any Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination can avert DALYs at US$82/DALY from the government perspective and US$80/DALY from the societal perspective. With Gavi support, DALYs can be averted at US$29/DALY and US$31/DALY from the societal and government perspective, respectively. The average yearly cost of a rotavirus vaccination program would represent 2.8% of the total immunization budget expected in 2017 and 0.1% of total health expenditure. CONCLUSIONS The introduction of rotavirus vaccination would be highly cost-effective in Afghanistan, and even more so with a Gavi subsidy.

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Rotavirus Burden, Genetic Diversity and Impact of Vaccine in Children under Five in Tanzania

Pathogens ◽

10.3390/pathogens8040210 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 210

Author(s):

Joseph J. Malakalinga ◽

Gerald Misinzo ◽

George M. Msalya ◽

Rudovick R. Kazwala

Keyword(s):

Dar Es Salaam ◽

Animal Origin ◽

Virus Genotype ◽

Children Under Five ◽

Under Five ◽

Vaccine Introduction ◽

Rotavirus Vaccination ◽

Trends Over Time ◽

The Impact ◽

Rotavirus Infections

In Tanzania, rotavirus infections are responsible for 72% of diarrhea deaths in children under five. The Rotarix vaccine was introduced in early 2013 to mitigate rotavirus infections. Understanding the disease burden and virus genotype trends over time is important for assessing the impact of rotavirus vaccine in Tanzania. When assessing the data for this review, we found that deaths of children under five declined after vaccine introduction, from 8171/11,391 (72% of diarrhea deaths) in 2008 to 2552/7087 (36% of diarrhea deaths) in 2013. Prior to vaccination, the prevalence of rotavirus infections in children under five was 18.1–43.4%, 9.8–51%, and 29–41% in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza and Tanga, respectively, and after the introduction of vaccines, these percentages declined to 17.4–23.5%, 16–19%, and 10–29%, respectively. Rotaviruses in Tanzania are highly diverse, and include genotypes of animal origin in children under five. Of the genotypes, 10%, 28%, and 7% of the strains are untypable in Dar es Salaam, Tanga, and Zanzibar, respectively. Mixed rotavirus genotype infection accounts for 31%, 29%, and 12% of genotypes in Mwanza, Tanga and Zanzibar, respectively. The vaccine effectiveness ranges between 53% and 75% in Mwanza, Manyara and Zanzibar. Rotavirus vaccination has successfully reduced the rotavirus burden in Tanzania; however, further studies are needed to better understand the relationship between the wildtype strain and the vaccine strain as well as the zoonotic potential of rotavirus in the post-vaccine era.

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The Impact of 10-Valent and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination on Invasive Pneumococcal Diseases in Children Under Five Year Old: An Article Review

International Journal of Pharmaceutical Research ◽

10.31838/ijpr/2020.12.01.172 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (01) ◽

Keyword(s):

Children Under Five ◽

Under Five ◽

Conjugate Vaccination ◽

The Impact

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Association between Malaria Infection and Early Childhood Development Mediated by Anemia in Rural Kenya

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17030902 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 902

Author(s):

Erin M. Milner ◽

Patricia Kariger ◽

Amy J. Pickering ◽

Christine P. Stewart ◽

Kendra Byrd ◽

...

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Social Development ◽

Malaria Infection ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Gross Motor ◽

Children Under Five ◽

Under Five ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Social Delay ◽

The Impact

Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age, with most cases occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa. Children in this age group in Africa are at greatest risk worldwide for developmental deficits. There are research gaps in quantifying the risks of mild malaria cases, understanding the pathways linking malaria infection and poor child development, and evaluating the impact of malaria on the development of children under five years. We analyzed the association between malaria infection and gross motor, communication, and personal social development in 592 children age 24 months in rural, western Kenya as part of the WASH Benefits environmental enteric dysfunction sub-study. Eighteen percent of children had malaria, 20% were at risk for gross motor delay, 21% were at risk for communication delay, and 23% were at risk for personal social delay. Having a positive malaria test was associated with increased risk for gross motor, communication, and personal social delay while adjusting for child characteristics, household demographics, study cluster, and intervention treatment arm. Mediation analyses suggested that anemia was a significant mediator in the pathway between malaria infection and risk for gross motor, communication, and personal social development delays. The proportion of the total effect of malaria on the risk of developmental delay that is mediated by anemia across the subscales was small (ranging from 9% of the effect on gross motor development to 16% of the effect on communication development mediated by anemia). Overall, malaria may be associated with short-term developmental delays during a vulnerable period of early life. Therefore, preventative malaria measures and immediate treatment are imperative for children’s optimal development, particularly in light of projections of continued high malaria transmission in Kenya and Africa.

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Impact of Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccine on Rotavirus Hospitalizations among Children Younger Than 5 Years of Age in the Ouest and Artibonite Departments, Haiti, 2013 to 2019

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene ◽

10.4269/ajtmh.21-0414 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Anne-Marie Desormeaux ◽

Eleanor Burnett ◽

Gérard Joseph ◽

Mentor Ali Ber Lucien ◽

Negar Aliabadi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Absolute Number ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Rotavirus Vaccine ◽

Vaccine Introduction ◽

Rotavirus Vaccination ◽

Before And After ◽

Rotavirus Diarrhea ◽

The Impact

Rotavirus is responsible for 26% of diarrheal deaths in Latin America and the Caribbean. Haiti introduced the monovalent rotavirus vaccine in April 2014. The objective of this analysis is to describe the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on hospitalizations among Haitian children younger than 5 years old during the first 5 years after introduction. This analysis includes all children with diarrhea who were enrolled as part of a sentinel surveillance system at two hospitals from May 2013 to April 2019. We compare the proportion of rotavirus-positive specimens in each post-vaccine introduction year to the pre-vaccine period. To account for the potential dilution of the proportion of rotavirus-positive specimens from a waning cholera outbreak, we also analyzed annual trends in the absolute number of positive stools, fit a two-component finite-mixture model to the negative specimens, and fit a negative binomial time series model to the pre-vaccine rotavirus-positive specimens to predict the number of rotavirus diarrhea hospital admissions in the absence of rotavirus vaccination. The overall percentage of rotavirus-positive specimens declined by 22% the first year after introduction, increased by 17% the second year, and declined by 33% to 50% the subsequent 3 years. All sensitivity analyses confirmed an overall decline. We observed a clear annual rotavirus seasonality before and after vaccine introduction, with the greatest activity in December through April, and a biennial pattern, with high sharp peaks and flatter longer periods of increased rotavirus activity in alternating years, consistent with suboptimal vaccination coverage. Overall, our study shows evidence that the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine reduced the burden of severe rotavirus diarrhea.

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A randomised controlled trial exploring the impact of a dedicated Health and Social Care Professionals team in the Emergency Department on the quality, safety, clinical and cost-effectiveness of care for older adults: Study Protocol

10.21203/rs.2.12207/v2 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Marica Cassarino ◽

Katie Robinson ◽

Íde O’Shaughnessy ◽

Eimear Smalle ◽

Stephen White ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Cost Effectiveness ◽

Randomised Controlled Trial ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Controlled Trial ◽

Health And Social Care ◽

Effectiveness Of Care ◽

Randomised Controlled ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background : Older people are frequent Emergency Department (ED) users who present with complex issues that are linked to poorer health outcomes post-index visit, often have increased ED length of stay and tend to have raised healthcare costs. Encouraging evidence suggests that ED teams involving health and social care professionals (HSCPs) can contribute to enhanced patient flow and improved patient experience by improving care decision-making and thus promoting timely and effective care. However, the evidence supporting the impact of HSCPs teams assessing and intervening with older adults in the ED is limited and identifies important methodological limitations, highlighting the need for more robust and comprehensive investigations of this model of care. This study aims to evaluate the impact of a dedicated ED-based HSCP team on the quality, safety, clinical and cost-effectiveness of care of older adults when compared to usual care. Methods : The study is a single-site randomised controlled trial whereby patients aged ≥65 years who present to the ED of a large Irish hospital will be randomised to the experimental group (ED-based HSCP assessment and intervention) or the control group (usual ED care). The recruitment target is 320 participants. The HSCP team will provide a comprehensive functional assessment as well as interventions to promote a safe discharge for the patient. The primary outcome is ED length of stay (from arrival to discharge). Secondary outcomes include: rates of hospital admissions from the ED, ED re-visits, unplanned hospital admissions and healthcare utilisation at 30-days, four and six-month follow-up; patient functional status and quality of life (at baseline and follow-up); patient satisfaction; costs-effectiveness in terms of costs associated with ED-based HSCP compared to usual care; and perceptions on implementation by ED staff members. Discussion : This is the first randomised controlled trial testing the impact of HSCPs working in teams in the ED on the quality, safety, clinical and cost-effectiveness of care for older patients. The findings of the study will provide important information on the effectiveness of this model of care for future implementation. Trial registration : ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03739515; registered on 12 th November 2018. Protocol version 1. URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03739515

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Abstract 5133: Does Public Smoking Ban Reduce the Incidence of Myocardial Infarction in Michigan? A Systematic Review and Attributable Risk Analysis

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.118.suppl_18.s_1148-b ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 118 (suppl_18) ◽

Author(s):

Mouaz Al-Mallah ◽

Fadi Alqaisi ◽

David Nerenz ◽

Stephanie Boedeker ◽

W. Douglas Weaver

Keyword(s):

Hospital Admissions ◽

Health Care Cost ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Attributable Risk ◽

Smoking Ban ◽

Random Effects Model ◽

Inclusion Criteria ◽

Established Risk Factor ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Impact

Background: Smoking is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The Michigan legislature is currently considering a proposal for a comprehensive smoking ban (CSB) in Michigan. The potential impact of such a law on the incidence AMI is not known. We conducted a meta-analysis to study the impact of CSB on the incidence of AMI and calculated the impact of potential CSB on the incidence of AMI in Michigan. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases from inception till May 2008 for studies comparing the rates of AMI hospital admissions before and in the year after the implementation of CSB legislation. Of 135 potentially relevant articles screened initially, 5 studies met the inclusion criteria. A random-effects model meta-analysis was done and between-studies heterogeneity was compared with I2. The attributable risk (AR) of CSB on AMI incidence was calculated and multiplied with the number of AMI admissions in Michigan. Results: In the published studies, a CSB was associated with a decrease in the incidence of AMI (RR 96%, 95% CI 93%–100%, p=0.05). There was no heterogeneity between the included studies (I2<50%). The AR of CSB on the incidence of AMI is −4.2%. The average number of hospital admissions for AMI as first-listed diagnosis in Michigan between 1999 and 2006 was 27,007 per year. Thus, if a CSB legislation is implemented in Michigan in 2008, the calculated reduction of hospital admissions for AMI is 1130 admissions per year as of 2009.. Conclusion: CSB is associated with a significant reduction of annual hospital admissions for AMI. The financial impact of this reduction on health care cost is yet to be determined.

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Health Outcomes of an Integrated Behaviour-Centred Water, Sanitation, Hygiene and Food Safety Intervention–A Randomised before and after Trial

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17082648 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (8) ◽

pp. 2648 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Tracy Morse ◽

Elizabeth Tilley ◽

Kondwani Chidziwisano ◽

Rossanie Malolo ◽

Janelisa Musaya

Keyword(s):

Low Income ◽

Diarrhoeal Disease ◽

Control Group ◽

Food Hygiene ◽

Children Under Five ◽

Under Five ◽

Cluster Group ◽

Point Reduction ◽

Before And After ◽

The Impact

Diarrhoeal disease in children under five in low income settings has been associated with multiple environmental exposure pathways, including complementary foods. Conducted from February to December 2018 in rural Malawi, this before and after trial with a control used diarrhoeal disease as a primary outcome, to measure the impact of a food hygiene intervention (food hygiene + handwashing) relative to a food hygiene and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) intervention (food hygiene + handwashing + faeces management + water management). The 31-week intervention was delivered by community-based coordinators through community events (n = 2), cluster group meetings (n = 17) and household visits (n = 14). Diarrhoeal disease was self-reported and measured through an end line survey, and daily diaries completed by caregivers. Difference-in-differences results show a 13-percentage point reduction in self-reported diarrhoea compared to the control group. There were also significant increases in the presence of proxy measures in each of the treatment groups (e.g., the presence of soap). We conclude that food hygiene interventions (including hand washing with soap) can significantly reduce diarrhoeal disease prevalence in children under five years in a low-income setting. Therefore, the promotion of food hygiene practices using a behaviour-centred approach should be embedded in nutrition and WASH policies and programming.

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Reduction in hospitalisations for acute gastroenteritis-associated childhood seizures since introduction of rotavirus vaccination: a time-series and change-point analysis of hospital admissions in England

Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health ◽

10.1136/jech-2019-213055 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 73 (11) ◽

pp. 1020-1025 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Daniel James Hungerford ◽

Neil French ◽

Miren Iturriza-Gómara ◽

Jonathan M Read ◽

Nigel A Cunliffe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Acute Gastroenteritis ◽

Change Point ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Population Level ◽

Febrile Seizures ◽

Change Point Analysis ◽

Rotavirus Vaccination ◽

Point Analysis ◽

The Impact

IntroductionThe incidence of severe childhood diarrhoea has fallen substantially following the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in the UK in July 2013. Since children with rotavirus infection may experience febrile and afebrile seizures, we evaluated the impact of rotavirus vaccination on seizure hospitalisations in children in England.MethodsUsing data from Hospital Episode Statistics, we employed interrupted time-series analyses to assess changes in monthly hospital admissions for seizures among children aged <5 years from July 2000 to June 2017. Outcome measures comprised all seizures and febrile seizures, with and without a co-diagnosis of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). Models were adjusted for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction. Change-point analysis was used to independently identify step-changes in the time-series.ResultsAmong hospitalised children aged <5 years, the incidence of any seizures and febrile seizures with AGE decreased post-vaccine introduction by 23% (95% CI: 11% to 33%) and 31% (95% CI: 19% to 41%), respectively. For febrile seizures with AGE, a single change-point was identified in July 2013 (95% CI: June 2013 to December 2013). Reductions in seizure incidence were higher during the rotavirus season (49%, 95% CI: 37% to 58%) compared with out-of-season (13%, 95% CI: −4 to 28%) and showed no relation to PCV introduction. There were small reductions in any seizures with any co-diagnosis (4%, 95% CI: 0% to 8%) and in febrile seizures with any co-diagnosis (10%, 95% CI: 2% to 16%).ConclusionRotavirus vaccination has reduced hospitalisations for seizures associated with AGE in England, providing additional evidence of population-level impact of rotavirus vaccination on seizure incidence in high-income countries.

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