Affect Heuristic and Format Effect in Risk Perception

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (8) ◽  
pp. 1331-1344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wu ◽  
Sheng Zeng ◽  
Yue Wu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Chikungunya Fever ◽  
Affect Heuristic ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
Format Effect ◽  
Level Of Risk

The affect heuristic can evoke a format effect so that different ways of expressing the level of likelihood of an event happening can cause different perceptions of the level of risk. We conducted 3 studies to test the hypothesis that a format effect is not always present at every level of probability, and even when a format effect occurs, it depends on risk level and emotion. In Study 1, the risk of a flood threatening participants' homes (familiar risk) regardless of change in emotion, occurred only at a 5% probability level. In Study 2, when facing an unfamiliar risk (being infected by Chikungunya fever), regardless of change in emotion, a format effect occurred at the level of 5% probability only when emotion was positive. In Study 3, a format effect occurred at a 5% probability level when prior emotion expectation was positive and risk consequences were emphasized. We can conclude that the format effect depends on changes in risk level and emotions.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals ANALISIS RISIKO BENCANA TANAH LONGSOR DI KECAMATAN SUKASADA, KABUPATEN BULELENG

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
I Wayan Gede Eka Saputra ◽  
I.P.G. Ardhana ◽  
I Wayan Sandi Adnyana
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Threat Level ◽  
Ground Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Effort ◽  
High Level ◽  
Level Of Risk

Sukasada Sub-District is a region that is largely a hilly area with steep slopes, rainfall intensity is high enough and unstable ground conditions. This leads that the Sub-District of Sukasada becomes potential for the occurrence of landslides. Mitigation effort is therefore necessary to reduce the risk of landslides that may occur. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of threats, vulnerabilities and capacities of level landslides in Sub-District of Sukasada. In addition to the above objectives, the study also aims to formulate strategies for disaster risk reduction of landslides in the Sub-District of Sukasada. The results showed the threat of landslides in the Sub-District of Sukasada is covering 11.169 hectares or 69,51% of the total area. High threat level area is around 727 hectares, the threat level is covering 7.717 hectares and a low threat level area is around 2.725 hectares. The level of vulnerability of landslides in Sub- District of Sukasada ranges from moderate to high. The highest vulnerability level (0.83) is located in some villages, such as: Pancasari, Pegayaman, Panji and Panji Anom Village. While the lowest level of vulnerability (0.66) is in Padangbulia Village. The level of local capacity to landslides in the Sub-District of Sukasada is low, with the resistance area index of 40,25 or capacity level of 0,2349. The level of risk of landslides in the Sub-District of Sukasada is classified as moderate to high. Areas with moderate risk levels are covering 2.032 hectares and a high level of risk covering 7.171 hectares. Strategies that can be done to cope with disaster risk are to reduce the threat, reduce vulnerability and increase capacity. Areas with moderate risk level can be done non-structural mitigation. Structural mitigation can be done in areas with a high level of risk.

scholarly journals RISK OF RETURNING DEPOSITO INVESTMENT RESULTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Djoko Sigit Gunanto
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
P Value ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Net Return ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Significant Probability ◽  
Level Of Risk

The purpose of this study is to understand the risk and return on investment of mudharabah deposits in Islamic banks using the Value at Risk (VaR) approach. The objects in this study are quarterly financial reports of Bank Syariah Mandiri, Bank BRI Syariah, and Bank Muamalat for three years, 2015-2017. VaR analysis results show that the average investment risk of mudharabah deposits for 3 years at Bank Syariah Mandiri was in 2015 amounted to 6.61% and net return of -0.53%, in 2016 the risk of 0.14% and net return of 3.21 %, in 2017 the risk is 0.17% and the net return is 0.32%. BRI Syariah Bank in 2015 was 0.08% and net return was 4.28%, in 2016 the risk was 0.07% and the net return was 3.77%, in 2017 the risk was 0.08% and the net return was 42.81% . and Bank Muamalat was in 2015 amounted to 0.63% and a net return of 0.04%, in 2016 a risk of 0.40% and a net return of 0.08%, in 2017 a risk of 0.14% and a net return of 0.26% . In addition there are differences in the level of risk and net return on Bank Syariah Mandiri, Bank BRI Syariah, and Bank Muamalat with a significant probability (p-value) for a risk level of 0.005 and a net return of 0.045. From the level of risk and net return for three years, BRI Syariah Bank is a bank that has a prospective value. Keywords: VaR, Risk, Return, Mudharabah Deposit

Does Culture Affect Risk Perception?

1995 ◽  
Vol 39 (15) ◽  
pp. 1015-1019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison G. Vredenburgh ◽  
H. Harvey Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Asian American ◽  
Mexican American ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Cultural Groups ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Social Clubs ◽  
Church Congregations ◽  
Independent Variable

As forensic consultants in the areas of Human Factors and Safety, the authors have frequently been asked to testify on cases concerning the “reasonableness of conduct” and assumption of risk of plaintiffs and defendants. The principal goal of this study is to determine whether there are differences in risk-perception among various racial and cultural groups. Participants in the study identified themselves as either Caucasian, Mexican-American, Asian-American, or African-American. Risk perception was measured with a survey designed specifically for this research, which included items generated from activities that resulted in accidents frequently investigated by the authors. Subjects were selected from intact church congregations and ethnically identified social clubs. The independent variable in this study was the cultural or ethnic identity of the subjects. The dependent variable was risk perception. Using an ANOVA, cultural differences were found. Consistent with past research, women were found to perceive higher risk. Level of education was not found to be related to risk perception.

Seismic ground-motion computations at low probabilities

1986 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 595-599
Author(s):  
W. G. Milne ◽  
D. H. Weichert
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Basic Assumption ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Dominant Contribution ◽  
Attenuation Relationships ◽  
Source Zones ◽  
Average Structures

The seismic provisions for the National Building Code of Canada are based on assumptions that seismic source zones can be defined within which earthquakes are distributed uniformly according to a magnitude/frequency-of-occurrence relation, and that a set of attenuation relationships hold for the earthquake magnitudes and distances that dominate the selected risk level of 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years. These assumptions appear to be reasonable at the probability level used for the average structures included in the code. However, attempts of extending the calculations to significantly lower levels of probability for special structures may invalidate the original assumptions, because the dominant contribution ranges of magnitudes and distances are outside of the intended scope of the ground-motion relations. Moreover, the basic assumption that earthquakes are uniformly distributed over large source zones is seriously compromised.

CHANGES IN RISK PERCEPTION DEMONSTRATED BY POLISH FARMERS FROM COMMERCIAL FARMS IN THE PERIOD 2011-2017

2018 ◽  
Vol XX (3) ◽  
pp. 145-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Sulewski ◽  
Kinga Pogodzińska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Insurance Scheme ◽  
Commercial Farms ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Changes In Risk

In the paper some changes in farmers’ risk perception has been analyzed. The study is based on data collected from almost 600 farms in 2011 and 2017. The analysis revealed that in the period 2011-2017 farmers’ risk aversion slightly declined. The results shown that drought and prices volatility are perceived by farmers as the main factors of risk in agricultural production in Poland. However a decrease in the significance of most risk factors (except drought) can be also observed. The results of the study suggest that the potential of development of current insurance scheme in Poland is rather limited.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of international construction projects using the analytic network process

2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (7) ◽  
pp. 1170-1181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amani Suliman Bu-Qammaz ◽  
Irem Dikmen ◽  
M. Talat Birgonul
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Reliable Technique ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
International Construction ◽  
Network Process ◽  
Level Of Risk

In this study, an analytic network process (ANP), which can handle the interrelations between risk related factors, is proposed as a reliable technique for measuring the level of risk associated with international construction projects. Within this context, ANP is used to derive the relative priorities of risk factors as an input to a decision support tool, which can be utilized during bidding decisions. The decision support tool may help a decision maker to estimate the level of risk so that alternative projects may be ranked with respect to their risk levels and appropriate contingency values may be defined after a bid decision is given. The tool has a database in which risk information of the rated projects can be stored for future use. The reliability of the tool was tested on eight real cases and satisfactory results were achieved in estimating the risk level.

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