scholarly journals Analisis perbedaan pengaruh kebijakan suku bunga bank sentral terhadap inflasi di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-112
Author(s):  
Cristin Kezia ◽  
Amril Amril ◽  
Yohanes Vyn Amzar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Repo Rate ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Financial Economy ◽  
Positive Effect

The purposes of this study are (1) to analyze the effect of the BI rate on inflation (2) to analyze the effect of the BI 7 day reverse repo rate on inflation (3) to analyze the different effects of the BI rate and the BI 7 day reverse repo rate on inflation. The method used in this study uses secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Indonesian financial economy. The analysis of this study with vector autoregressive (VAR) using the Eviews 10 software program, results of the study analyzed that the difference in the influence of the central bank's interest rate policy on inflation in Indonesia, that the BI rate of interest on inflation had a positive and significant effect with a benchmark of 5% or 0.005%, the analysis on the BI 7 day reverse repo rate is not significant at the benchmark of 5% or 0.005% but has a positive effect in reducing inflation in Indonesia which reflects price stability as the final target of monetary policy. Keywords: BI rate, BI 7 day reverse repo rate, Inflation, Vector autoregressive (VAR)

scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

Monetary Policy's Influence on Real Estate Price in China: An Analysis Based on VAR Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 850-851 ◽  
pp. 1003-1007
Author(s):  
Xiong Song He ◽  
Guo Lin Deng
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Price ◽  
Rate Policy

Monetary policy has a significant effect on real estate price, and monetary policymakers need to have quick response. Based on the assumptions that monetary policy and real estate price influence each other and variables affect one another with a lag, A VAR model is designed and modified. Through impulse-response analysis and variance analysis, the influence of money supply and that of interest rate on real estate price are tested and compared. We found that: both money supply and interest rate could affect the real estate price; interest rate has a bigger influence that money supply does; as time goes on, the influence of money supply changes little, but that of interest rate enhances; interest rate policy is not easy to control and it will lead to a fluctuation of economy and the fluctuation may enhance, money supply is a better method to regulate real estate industry instead.

scholarly journals Monetary policy, exchange rate, renewable energy and economic growth: An empirical analysis of Vietnam

Accounting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1315-1324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Viet Nga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World Bank

The aim of this study is focused on how monetary, energy consumption and other factors affect economic growth of the country of Vietnam. Based on collected secondary data covering from the World Bank and Vietnam’s General Statistics Office from 1985 to 2019, and some data collected from the State Bank of Vietnam, Vector Autoregressive Model was considered to apply in order to investigate this relationship. Results show that there exists an association among monetary policy, renewable energy and the country’s economic growth. Especially, the country’s exchange rate shows no influence on its economic growth while interest rate has negative effects and particularly money supply and renewable energy have a positive influence on the same direction and has a strong impact on economic growth.

An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Interest Rates to Facilitate Price Stability and Economic Growth in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 68-90
Author(s):  
Danie Francois Meyer ◽  
Chama Chipeta ◽  
Richard Thabang Mc Camel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
South African ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Repo Rate

Abstract Price stability supports accelerated economic growth (GDP), thus the main objective of most central banks is to ensure price stability. The South African economy is experiencing a unique monetary policy dilemma, where a high inflation rate is accompanied by high interest rates and low GDP. This is an unconventional monetary policy scenario and may hold strenuous repercussions for the South African economy. This dilemma was held as the rationale behind this study. The study investigated the effectiveness of the use of the repo rate as an instrument to facilitate price stability and GDP in South Africa. Long-run, short-run and casual relationships between interest rates, inflation and GDP were therefore analyzed. The methodology is based on an econometric process which included a Johansen co-integration test, with a Vector Error Correction model (VECM). Casual relationships were also tested using Granger causality tests. Results of the Johansen Co-integration test indicated the presence of co-integrating long-run relationships between the variables and a significant and negative long-run relationship between the repo rate and inflation rate was revealed, whereas GDP and inflation rate exhibited a significant and positive long-run relationship. The study also found short-run relationships between inflation and GDP, but not for inflation and the repo rate. Further areas of potential research may fixate towards the assessment of other significant alternative policy tools which may be utilized by various countries’ monetary policy authorities to influence supply specific inflationary pressures led by the cost-push phenomena, especially in the short-run.

LEARNING, HEDGING, AND THE NATURAL RATE HYPOTHESIS

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 2009-2034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas E. Cone ◽  
Paul Shea
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Parameter Change ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Fixed Price ◽  
Future Production ◽  
Rate Policy

We assume that firms are more risk averse than households and that they manage their risk through a financial sector, which consists of learning and hedging. Firms that learn (by observing demand shocks) face less uncertainty and produce more than firms that hedge (by selling future production at a fixed price). If a policy or parameter change stabilizes the economy, then there is less learning and usually less production. Welfare, however, is usually maximized when the financial sector, which requires inputs but does not directly provide utility or affect production, is smallest. Monetary policy can improve welfare by either taxing learning or subsidizing hedging. If firms are risk averse over nominal profits instead of real profits, then interest rate policy can also improve welfare by stabilizing prices and thus minimizing the size of the financial sector.

scholarly journals How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 47-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marvin Goodfriend
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Complete Agreement ◽  
Success Story ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Great Achievement ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
State Of Affairs

The worldwide progress in monetary policy is a great achievement and, especially considering the situation 30 years ago, a remarkable success story. I describe how the world achieved a working consensus on the core principles of monetary policy by the late 1990s. I survey the muddled state of affairs in the 1970s, and then ask: What happened in Federal Reserve policy to produce an understanding of the practical principles of monetary policy? How did formal institutional support for targeting low inflation abroad follow from an international acceptance of these ideas? And how did a consensus theoretical model develop in academia? I explain how the modern theoretical consensus—known alternatively as the New Neoclassical Synthesis or the New Keynesian model of monetary policy—reinforces key advances: the priority for price stability; the targeting of core rather than headline inflation; the importance of credibility for low inflation; and preemptive interest rate policy supported by transparent objectives and procedures. Of course, a working consensus does not constitute complete agreement. Accordingly, the conclusion identifies important monetary policy issues that remain to be explored.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Shocks in the Russian Economy and Their Macroeconomic Effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 48-75
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate

This section conducts an estimate of the impulse response function of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks in Russia. The estimates are carried out through a dynamic factor model (DFM) of the Russian economy with structural identification of shocks by imposing various sets of sign restrictions on the behavior of endogenous variables. We restricted first the monetary aggregate M2 only (a decrease in response to an increase of the Key rate), and then—simultaneously—M2, real effective exchange rate (an increase), and GDP (a decrease). We estimated the DFM using a large dataset of 58 macroeconomic and financial variables. The estimation results suggest that there is no decreasing response of consumer prices to an exogenous tightening of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Russia. This empirical evidence is supported implicitly by DFM-based predictions that under the imposition of such a decreasing response as an identifying restriction to the model, a positive interest rate shock is not transmitted through the interest rate channel of monetary policy to expected increases of the interest rates on commercial loans and private deposits. However, existing empirical evidence refutes this model-based result. Therefore, this study supports the view according to which a tightening of monetary policy in Russia is inefficient in terms of restraining inflation. In addition, monetary policy shocks negatively affect investments, retail sales, export and import, real wages, and employment. Different economic activities react differently to monetary policy shocks: export-oriented activities are not sensitive to these shocks, whereas domestic pro-cyclical activities (e.g. construction) can be substantially depressed in response to unexpected increases of interest rates. Finally, the expectations of economic agents are also significantly affected by shocks in the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Guncangan Kebijakan Moneter dan Variabel Makro Terhadap Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK) Bank Syariah di Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 642
Author(s):  
Mohammad Abdul Adim ◽  
Raditya Sukmana
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

The purpose of this research is to find out the effect of monetary policy shocks and macro variables towards Islamic banks deposits. The method that used in this researc his quantitative method and also using secondary data which obtained from financial reports and other reports started from 2005 until the end of 2015. Analysis technique used is Johansen Cointegration and Vector Autoregressive (VAR). The result are monetary policy shocks have affect significant on deposits Islamic banks in long run and short run. Furthermore, variables macroeckonomic like GDP and CPI have effect significant on deposits in Islamic banks. interestingly, the money supply in the long run have significant effect on Islaimc banks deposits, but in the short run does not have a significant effect on the deposits of Islamic banks.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document