Upward Shifts in Ageratina adenophora Global Distributions in Response to Future Climate Change Scenarios

Aim: Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable distributions of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is a invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable distribution of A. adenophora remains unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential distributions of Ageratina adenophora. Location: Global Taxa: Asteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed. Methods: Based on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its potential distribution of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the distribution characteristics of this weed and the ‘ecospat’ package in R to analyse its altitudinal distribution changes. Results: The area under the curve value (>0.9) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable habitat for A.adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increase were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable habitat of A.adenophora under climate change moved toward regions with higher elevation. Main Conclusions: Temperature was the most important variable influencing the distribution of A. Adenophora. Under the background of warming climate, the potential distribution range of A.adenophora will shrink globally but increase regionally. The distribution of A.adenophora will shift toward higher elevation under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.

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Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

Biodiversity Data Journal ◽

10.3897/bdj.8.e49164 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽

Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Wildlife Conservation ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios

Ecology and Evolution ◽

10.1002/ece3.7974 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Gu Changjun ◽

Tu Yanli ◽

Liu Linshan ◽

Wei Bo ◽

Zhang Yili ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Global Distribution ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ageratina Adenophora

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The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12041491 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1491

Author(s):

Xuhui Zhang ◽

Haiyan Wei ◽

Zefang Zhao ◽

Jing Liu ◽

Quanzhong Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Random Forest ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Eastern Africa ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Annual Range ◽

Forest Models ◽

Random Forest Models

The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.

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Resilience or Vulnerability of the Rear-Edge Distributions of Pinus halepensis and Pinus pinaster Plantations Versus that of Natural Populations, under Climate-Change Scenarios

Forest Science ◽

10.1093/forsci/fxz066 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 66 (2) ◽

pp. 178-190 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

E Silvério ◽

J Duque-Lazo ◽

R M Navarro-Cerrillo ◽

F Pereña ◽

G Palacios-Rodríguez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Pinus Pinaster ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Pinus Halepensis ◽

Natural Populations ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Forest Plantations ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Natural Stands

Abstract It is predicted that changes in climate will lead to episodes of large forest decline and mortality. Therefore, the distributions of forest plantations and natural stands might already be facing such impacts. We selected the most arid zone of south-eastern Europe (eastern Andalusia) to assess how the distributions of Pinus halepensis Miller. and Pinus pinaster Aiton forest plantations and natural stands cope with climate change and to determine whether natural or planted distributions would be more stable under future climate-change scenarios. We used presence-point locations from natural distributions, obtained from the third Spanish National Forest Inventory, to develop ensemble species distribution models. The forecast predicted a slight increase in the potential distribution of both species by 2040, with a subsequent drastic decrease until 2099. Pinus halepensis had larger current and future potential distributions than P. pinaster but a slightly greater decrease with time in the potential distribution than that of P. pinaster. On the other hand, the natural and planted distributions of P. halepensis were more vulnerable to future climate change scenarios than those of P. pinaster. Natural populations will likely be more resilient to climate change than planted populations.

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Modeling Future Potential Distribution of Buff-Bellied Hummingbird (Amazilia yucatanensis) Under Climate Change: Species vs. Subspecies

Tropical Conservation Science ◽

10.1177/19400829211030834 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 25 ◽

pp. 194008292110308

Author(s):

Antonio Acini Vásquez-Aguilar ◽

Juan Francisco Ornelas ◽

Flor Rodríguez-Gómez ◽

M. Cristina MacSwiney G.

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Niche Breadth ◽

Future Climate ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climatic Niche ◽

Future Projections ◽

Change Models

Global climate change is associated with changes in precipitation patterns and an increase in extreme weather events, which might shift the geographic distribution of species. Despite the importance of this topic, information is lacking for many species, particularly tropical birds. Here, we developed species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections of the distribution of the widespread Buff-bellied Hummingbird ( Amazilia yucatanensis) and for each of the recognized subspecies ( A. y. yucatanensis, A. y. cerviniventris, A. y. chalconota), under climate change scenarios. Using SDMs we evaluate current and future projections of their potential distribution for four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) for the years 2050 and 2070. We also calculated the subspecies climatic niche breadth to test the relationship between their area of distribution and climatic niche breadth and their niche overlap. Future climate-change models suggested a small increase in the potential distribution of the species and the subspecies A. y. yucatanensis, but the predicted potential geographic range decreased in A. y. chalconota and remained unaffected in A. y. cerviniventris. The climatic niche of A. y. cerviniventris contained part niche space of A. y. yucatanensis and part of A. y. chalconota, but the climatic niches of A. y. yucatanensis and A. y. chalconota did not overlap. Our study highlights the importance of correctly choosing the taxonomic unit to be analyzed because subspecies will respond in a different manner to future climate change; therefore, conservation actions must consider intrinsic requirements of subspecies and the environmental drivers that shape their distributions.

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Global distribution of Sapindus habitats under current and future climate change scenarios

10.21203/rs.3.rs-506226/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jiming Liu ◽

Lianchun Wang ◽

Caowen Sun ◽

Benye Xi ◽

Doudou Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Future Climate ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Suitable Habitats

Abstract Sapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, Sapindus germplasm resources have been lost. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the present and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0–20°C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40–140 mm, a mean temperature of 2–25°C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19–28°C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6–7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 104 km2, which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

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The potential distribution of Chiranthodendron pentadactylon (Malvaceae) through time: Phylogeography revisited and predicted environmental suitability under alternative future climate change scenarios.

10.22541/au.163904275.55900059/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Diana Hernandez Langford ◽

Jaime Escoto Moreno ◽

Joaquín Sosa Ramírez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Last Interglacial ◽

Modeling Tools ◽

Southern Mexico ◽

Environmental Suitability ◽

The Impact

Aim: Mexican hand tree Chiranthodendron pentadactylon is an evergreen temperate tree species restricted to cloud forests and pine-oak forests of southern Mexico, Guatemala and possibly Honduras. Climate is believed to significantly contribute to the species establishment, viability and distribution. Insights into the impact of climate change on the species potential distribution throughout time were approached by ecological niche modeling tools. Location: Southern Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras. Methods: Past (Last Interglacial 120-140 KA, Last Glacial Maximum 22 KA, Mid-Holocene 6 KA), historical (1910-2009) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) potential distributions and corresponding environmental suitability were modelled using the Maximum Entropy algorithm. Current (historical) models were based on the most up to date historical environmental variables and constituted the baseline for past and future projections. Past predictions are revisited in a phylogeographic context. Future predictions were made for four different emissions scenarios. Results: Increase in potential distribution range comes about during cold and humid periods but higher suitability possibly relates to humid conditions. Potential distribution alongside environmental suitability diminishes during warm and dry periods. Future climate change implies warmer periods whence environmental suitability declines following a linear trend. Main conclusions: Future warmer conditions are predicted to linearly reduce environmental suitability throughout time. Biotic and anthropogenic factors further threaten the species distribution. Demographic trends and genetic diversity estimated through a recent phylogeographic study, complement the statement that populations viability is increasingly being threatened by current and future climate change, underscoring the need for the implementation of conservation actions.

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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Frontiers in Plant Science ◽

10.3389/fpls.2021.830119 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Ning Shi ◽

Niyati Naudiyal ◽

Jinniu Wang ◽

Narayan Prasad Gaire ◽

Yan Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Model Output ◽

Southeastern Margin ◽

Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

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