scholarly journals The potential distribution of Chiranthodendron pentadactylon (Malvaceae) through time: Phylogeography revisited and predicted environmental suitability under alternative future climate change scenarios.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Hernandez Langford ◽  
Jaime Escoto Moreno ◽  
Joaquín Sosa Ramírez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Environmental Suitability ◽  
The Impact

Aim: Mexican hand tree Chiranthodendron pentadactylon is an evergreen temperate tree species restricted to cloud forests and pine-oak forests of southern Mexico, Guatemala and possibly Honduras. Climate is believed to significantly contribute to the species establishment, viability and distribution. Insights into the impact of climate change on the species potential distribution throughout time were approached by ecological niche modeling tools. Location: Southern Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras. Methods: Past (Last Interglacial 120-140 KA, Last Glacial Maximum 22 KA, Mid-Holocene 6 KA), historical (1910-2009) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) potential distributions and corresponding environmental suitability were modelled using the Maximum Entropy algorithm. Current (historical) models were based on the most up to date historical environmental variables and constituted the baseline for past and future projections. Past predictions are revisited in a phylogeographic context. Future predictions were made for four different emissions scenarios. Results: Increase in potential distribution range comes about during cold and humid periods but higher suitability possibly relates to humid conditions. Potential distribution alongside environmental suitability diminishes during warm and dry periods. Future climate change implies warmer periods whence environmental suitability declines following a linear trend. Main conclusions: Future warmer conditions are predicted to linearly reduce environmental suitability throughout time. Biotic and anthropogenic factors further threaten the species distribution. Demographic trends and genetic diversity estimated through a recent phylogeographic study, complement the statement that populations viability is increasingly being threatened by current and future climate change, underscoring the need for the implementation of conservation actions.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽  
Cesar Augusto Marchioro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change Will Have a Positive Effect on Populus davidiana in China

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Li ◽  
Guan Liu ◽  
Qi Lu ◽  
Yanru Zhang ◽  
Guoqing Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Disturbance ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Degree Of Protection ◽  
Populus Davidiana ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Degree Of Fragmentation

Since climate change significantly affects global biodiversity, a reasonable assessment of the vulnerability of species in response to climate change is crucial for conservation. Most existing methods estimate the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of species by projecting the change of a species’ distribution range. This single-component evaluation ignores the impact of other components on vulnerability. In this study, Populus davidiana (David’s aspen), a tree species widely used in afforestation projects, was selected as the research subject under four future climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Exposure components of range change as well as the degree of fragmentation, degree of human disturbance, and degree of protection were considered simultaneously. Then, a multicomponent vulnerability index was established to assess the effect of future climate change on the vulnerability of P. davidiana in China. The results show that the distribution range of P. davidiana will expand to the northwest of China under future climate change scenarios, which will lead to an increased degree of protection and a decreased degree of human disturbance, and hardly any change in the degree of fragmentation. The multicomponent vulnerability index values of P. davidiana under the four emission scenarios are all positive by 2070, ranging from 14.05 to 38.18, which fully indicates that future climate change will be conducive to the survival of P. davidiana. This study provides a reference for the development of conservation strategies for the species as well as a methodological case study for multicomponent assessment of species vulnerability to future climate change.

scholarly journals Risk from extreme precipitation and climate change on New Zealand’s residential property

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jacob Pastor Paz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Claim Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Property Damage ◽  
The Impact

<p><b>Three manuscripts form the basis of this dissertation exploring the effect of extreme precipitation and climate change on residential property in New Zealand. The first manuscript investigates the public insurer’s expected future liabilities, given future climate projections. Specifically, it examines the effect of extreme precipitation on direct property damage associated with rainfall-induced landslides, storms and floods. This study applies a fixed-effects panel regression model using claim data linked to extreme precipitation data over 2000-2017 and future climate change scenarios until 2100. The results show that liabilities will increase more if future greenhouse gasses emissions are higher. At the aggregate level, the percent change between past and future liabilities ranges between an increase of 7 to 8% higher in the next 20 years, and an increase between 9 to 25% increase by the end of the century, depending on the greenhouse gases emissions scenario.</b></p> <p>The second manuscript examines the risk of property damage from landslides associated with extreme precipitation. The focus is on the Nelson region as it displays the highest number of claims and pay-outs relative to its population and residential stock asset, and two thirds of the pay-outs come from a single event. The focus is on this event. This research combines past insurance claim data with geographic and sociodemographic data to estimate probability of damage, which is then combined with property replacement values and damage-ratio information to calculate the expected loses and map the spatial distribution of risk. The study integrates into the risk estimates the impact of climate change on precipitation based on an ‘attribution’ study. The analysis shows that slope and social deprivation play a significant role in the probability of damage. Furthermore, higher expected losses are associated with higher property values. </p> <p>The third manuscript studies the current and future risk of property damage from floods associated with extreme precipitation and climate change. The focus is on the most expensive event on record. This study applies a logistic cross-sectional regression model that exploits spatial variation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (with and without the effect of climate change), while controlling for other factors that might make a property more or less likely to experience damage. The expected monetary losses are calculated by factoring in the likelihood of flood damage derived from the regression model, property replacement values, and property vulnerability (based on flood-depth fragility functions). The results show that highest losses are associated with lowest annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), still, sizeable losses are associated with higher AEPs. In this case, the effect of climate change for different emissions scenarios is too small to cause an economically meaningful increase in risk levels in the next 80 years (2100).</p>

Resilience or Vulnerability of the Rear-Edge Distributions of Pinus halepensis and Pinus pinaster Plantations Versus that of Natural Populations, under Climate-Change Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 178-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
E Silvério ◽  
J Duque-Lazo ◽  
R M Navarro-Cerrillo ◽  
F Pereña ◽  
G Palacios-Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pinus Pinaster ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Pinus Halepensis ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Forest Plantations ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Natural Stands

Abstract It is predicted that changes in climate will lead to episodes of large forest decline and mortality. Therefore, the distributions of forest plantations and natural stands might already be facing such impacts. We selected the most arid zone of south-eastern Europe (eastern Andalusia) to assess how the distributions of Pinus halepensis Miller. and Pinus pinaster Aiton forest plantations and natural stands cope with climate change and to determine whether natural or planted distributions would be more stable under future climate-change scenarios. We used presence-point locations from natural distributions, obtained from the third Spanish National Forest Inventory, to develop ensemble species distribution models. The forecast predicted a slight increase in the potential distribution of both species by 2040, with a subsequent drastic decrease until 2099. Pinus halepensis had larger current and future potential distributions than P. pinaster but a slightly greater decrease with time in the potential distribution than that of P. pinaster. On the other hand, the natural and planted distributions of P. halepensis were more vulnerable to future climate change scenarios than those of P. pinaster. Natural populations will likely be more resilient to climate change than planted populations.

scholarly journals Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 182111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lewis A. Jones ◽  
Philip D. Mannion ◽  
Alexander Farnsworth ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Sarah-Jane Kelland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Reef Coral ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Reef Corals ◽  
Global Climatic Change

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

scholarly journals Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3885
Author(s):  
Christos Spyrou ◽  
Michael Loupis ◽  
Νikos Charizopoulos ◽  
Ilektra Apostolidou ◽  
Angeliki Mentzafou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being deployed around the world in order to address hydrometeorological hazards, including flooding, droughts, landslides and many others. The term refers to techniques inspired, supported and copied from nature, avoiding large constructions and other harmful interventions. In this work the development and evaluation of an NBS applied to the Spercheios river basin in Central Greece is presented. The river is susceptible to heavy rainfall and bank overflow, therefore the intervention selected is a natural water retention measure that aims to moderate the impact of flooding and drought in the area. After the deployment of the NBS, we examine the benefits under current and future climate conditions, using various climate change scenarios. Even though the NBS deployed is small compared to the rest of the river, its presence leads to a decrease in the maximum depth of flooding, maximum velocity and smaller flooded areas. Regarding the subsurface/groundwater storage under current and future climate change and weather conditions, the NBS construction seems to favor long-term groundwater recharge.

scholarly journals Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedram Mahdavi ◽  
Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi ◽  
Hossein Eslami ◽  
Narges Zohrabi ◽  
Majid Razaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016).

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on potential distribution of xero-epiphytic selaginellas (Selaginella involvens and S. repanda) in Southeast Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1680-1695
Author(s):  
AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ◽  
JATNA SUPRIATNA ◽  
DEDY DARNAEDI ◽  
ROKHMATULOH ROKHMATULOH ◽  
SUTARNO SUTARNO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Medium ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Darnaedi D, Rokhmatuloh, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Nursamsi I, Komala WR, Pradan P. 2017. Impact of climate change on potential distribution of xero-epiphytic selaginellas (Selaginella involvens and S. repanda) in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 18: 1680-1695. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges for all life on earth, as it may become the dominant driver of changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss at the global level. Selaginella is a group of spike-mosses that seem easily affected by global warming (climate change) due to requiring water medium for fertilization. However, some species have been adapted to dry condition and may grow as epiphytes, such as S. involvens and S. repanda. Both species are commonly found in opposing a range of elevation. S. involvens is often found in high-altitude regions, whereas S. repanda is often found at lower-altitude regions. The difference in this altitudinal distributions is expected to limit redistribution mechanism of each species to adapt the climate change projections. This study model examines the potential geographic distribution of S. involvens and S. repanda under current climatic conditions and models the impact of projected climate change on their potential distribution. Future climate predictions are made with four detailed bioclimatic scenarios (i.e. RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) and three-time intervals (2030, 2050, 2080), which combine various climatic factors. In this modeling, it can be concluded that S. involvens and S. repanda can adapt to future climate change, and continue to be sustainable, although it is strongly influenced and shifting habitat distribution in some areas.

scholarly journals Risk from extreme precipitation and climate change on New Zealand’s residential property

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Pastor Paz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Claim Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Property Damage ◽  
The Impact

<p><b>Three manuscripts form the basis of this dissertation exploring the effect of extreme precipitation and climate change on residential property in New Zealand. The first manuscript investigates the public insurer’s expected future liabilities, given future climate projections. Specifically, it examines the effect of extreme precipitation on direct property damage associated with rainfall-induced landslides, storms and floods. This study applies a fixed-effects panel regression model using claim data linked to extreme precipitation data over 2000-2017 and future climate change scenarios until 2100. The results show that liabilities will increase more if future greenhouse gasses emissions are higher. At the aggregate level, the percent change between past and future liabilities ranges between an increase of 7 to 8% higher in the next 20 years, and an increase between 9 to 25% increase by the end of the century, depending on the greenhouse gases emissions scenario.</b></p> <p>The second manuscript examines the risk of property damage from landslides associated with extreme precipitation. The focus is on the Nelson region as it displays the highest number of claims and pay-outs relative to its population and residential stock asset, and two thirds of the pay-outs come from a single event. The focus is on this event. This research combines past insurance claim data with geographic and sociodemographic data to estimate probability of damage, which is then combined with property replacement values and damage-ratio information to calculate the expected loses and map the spatial distribution of risk. The study integrates into the risk estimates the impact of climate change on precipitation based on an ‘attribution’ study. The analysis shows that slope and social deprivation play a significant role in the probability of damage. Furthermore, higher expected losses are associated with higher property values. </p> <p>The third manuscript studies the current and future risk of property damage from floods associated with extreme precipitation and climate change. The focus is on the most expensive event on record. This study applies a logistic cross-sectional regression model that exploits spatial variation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (with and without the effect of climate change), while controlling for other factors that might make a property more or less likely to experience damage. The expected monetary losses are calculated by factoring in the likelihood of flood damage derived from the regression model, property replacement values, and property vulnerability (based on flood-depth fragility functions). The results show that highest losses are associated with lowest annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), still, sizeable losses are associated with higher AEPs. In this case, the effect of climate change for different emissions scenarios is too small to cause an economically meaningful increase in risk levels in the next 80 years (2100).</p>

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