scholarly journals Public debt sustainability in Serbia before and during the global financial crisis

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (210) ◽  
pp. 47-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Andric ◽  
Milojko Arsic ◽  
Aleksandra Nojkovic

We have analyzed the behaviour of primary fiscal balance and public debt in Serbia before and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The results of our analysis are: i) public debt to GDP ratioexhibits (near) unit root behaviour with an overall upward time trend; ii) the response of primary fiscal balance to public debt has been insufficient to mean revert the upward trend in government debt; iii) the efforts of the Serbian government to repay the debt principal after the fiscal rule breach have not been persistent, providing empirical support to the fiscal fatigue hypothesis; iv) the government budget constraint has deteriorated since the beginning of the global financial crisis; v) the response of primary fiscal balance to public debt from the onset of the global financial crisis has dropped more severely in comparison to other European economies.

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthalia Tabouratzi ◽  
Christos Lemonakis ◽  
Alexandros Garefalakis

The globalization and the global financial crisis provide a new extremely competitive environment for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). During the latest years, the increased number of firms’ default has generated the need of understanding the factors of firms’ default, as SMEs in periods of financial crisis suffer from lack of financial resources and expensive bank lending. We use a sample of 3600 Greek manufacturing firms (9 Sectors), covering the time period of 2003-2011 (9 years). We run a panel regression model with correction for fixed effects in both the cross-section and period dimensions using as dependent variable the calculated Z-Score of each firm, and as independent variables several financial ratios, as well as the exporting activity and the use of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS Accounting Standards).We find that firms presenting higher performance in terms of ROA and sales and higher leverage levels that enhance their liquidity as well are healthier in terms of Z-score than their less profitable counterparts and acquire lower rates of probability of default: in other words, less risk. The results of the study can lead to policy implications for both Managers and the Government in order to enhance the growth of Greek manufacturing sector.


Author(s):  
Tu T. T. Tran ◽  
Yen Thi Nguyen

Project 254 signed in November 2011 which is relating to “Restructuring the system of credit institutions in the period of 2011–2015” has been considered as a milestone in marking the Vietnamese government to prevent the influence of the financial crisis of 2008. This paper identifies hypotheses evaluating the impact of restructuring measurements on the risk of the Vietnamese’s commercial banks in 10 years, starting from 2008. Using the OLS regression method for analysis by running Eviews and ANOVA test in SPSS with a unique database of 216 observations of 31 commercial banks in Vietnam, it was found that: (i) The bail-out activities of the State Bank of Vietnam in 2015 does not influence on bank risk, (ii) The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) do not support the bank to reduce risk, it increases the risk for acquiring banks, (iii) The global crisis 2008 exerts dire consequence on the bank system in Vietnam, (iv) There is the difference of risk among the groups of the bank experiencing a different number of years of operation. Basing on this result, the paper also makes recommendations to the Government, The State Bank of Vietnam and the commercial banks for effective risk management toward the development of the Vietnamese banking system.


Policy Papers ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  

The global financial crisis has had a significant impact on low-income countries (LICs)’ debt vulnerabilities. Recent debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) indicate that external and fiscal financing requirements have increased. In addition, standard measures of a country’s capacity to repay debt?GDP, exports, and fiscal revenue?are expected to be permanently lower. On average, debt ratios are therefore expected to deteriorate in the near term, particularly for public debt.


Author(s):  
Stelios Bekiros ◽  
Duc Khuong Nguyen ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin ◽  
Bo Sjö

AbstractThe introduction of Euro currency was a game-changing event intended to induce convergence of Eurozone business cycles on the basis of greater monetary and fiscal integration. The benefit of participating into a common currency area exceeds the cost of losing autonomy in national monetary policy only in case of cycle co-movement. However, synchronization was put back mainly due to country-specific differences and asymmetries in terms of trade and fiscal policies that became profound at the outset of the global financial crisis. As opposed to previous studies that are mostly based on linear correlation or causality modeling, we utilize the cross-wavelet coherence measure to detect and identify the scale-dependent time-varying (de)synchronization effects amongst Eurozone and the broad Euro area business cycles before and after the financial crisis. Our results suggest that the enforcement of an active monetary policy by the ECB during crisis periods could provide an effective stabilization instrument for the entire Euro area. However, as dynamic patterns in the lead-lag relationships of the European economies are revealed, (de)synchronization varies across different frequency bands and time horizons.


2011 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederic S Mishkin

The financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 can be divided into two distinct phases. The first and more limited phase from August 2007 to August 2008 stemmed from losses in one relatively small segment of the U.S. financial system—namely, subprime residential mortgages. Despite this disruption to financial markets, real GDP in the United States continued to rise into the second quarter of 2008, and forecasters were predicting only a mild recession. In mid-September 2008, however, the financial crisis entered a far more virulent phase. In rapid succession, the investment bank Lehman Brothers entered bankruptcy on September 15, 2008; the insurance firm AIG collapsed on September 16, 2008; there was a run on the Reserve Primary Fund money market fund on the same day; and the highly publicized struggle to pass the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) began. How did something that appeared in mid-2008 to be a significant but fairly mild financial disruption transform into a full-fledged global financial crisis? What caused this transformation? Did the government responses to the global financial crisis help avoid a worldwide depression? What challenges do these government interventions raise for the world financial system and the economy going forward?


2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 201-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thanh Dat Nguyen ◽  
Sandy Suardi ◽  
Chew Lian Chua

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 202-208
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Korczyc

Purpose of the study: This study aims to present the specifics of the global financial crisis, the threats it brings for Poland in the legal sphere, and possible actions to be taken in this area, particularly at the European Union and Poland level. Methodology: The article uses the historical method and the analysis of documents both at the Polish and European Union levels, including laws, regulations, and decisions. Main Findings: The scope of the financial crisis in question and its relatively easy transfer between markets entails the necessity to apply extraordinary remedial actions. Poland, through its participation in the European Union, seems to be relatively well protected against the effects of the financial crisis. However, it needs to undertake further structural reforms, in particular reforms of public finances. Applications of this study: The current study is highly significant for the government of the day in this modern world; the study could be quite effective and meaningful for Higher Education Institutions, government, banks, financial institutions. Novelty/Originality of this study: Description of the essence of the financial crisis, possibilities of its prevention - earlier possibilities of remedial actions at the institutional and legal level, possibilities of obtaining financial support, global analysis of the problem, including its causes.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Cavaille ◽  
Federica Liberini ◽  
Michela Redoano ◽  
Anandi Mani ◽  
Vera E. Troeger ◽  
...  

Most, if not all advanced economies have suffered gravely from the 2008 global financial crisis. Growth, productivity, real income and consumption have plunged and inequality, and in some cases poverty, spiked. Some countries, like Germany and Australia, were better able to cope with the consequences but austerity has taken its toll even on the strongest economies. The UK is no exception and the more recent period of economic recovery might be halted or even reversed by the political, economic, and policy uncertainty created by the Brexit referendum. This uncertainty related risk to growth could be even greater if the UK leaves the economic and legal framework provided by the EU. This CAGE policy report offers proposals from different perspectives to answer the overarching question: What is the role of a government in a modern economy after the global financial crisis and the Brexit vote? We report on economic and social challenges in the UK and discuss potential policy responses for the government to consider. Foreword by: Lord O’Donnell of Clapham.


Author(s):  
Nabila Nisha

Financial markets have suffered the greatest dislocation following the truly seismic significance of the global financial crisis. Regulators argue that the banking sector played a particularly special role in triggering the causes of the subprime debacle, thereby leading to the occurrence of the global financial crisis. Banks previously functioned as only a financial intermediary, but certain developments in the international banking sector like deregulation, technological progress, consolidation and competition, securitisation and financial innovation, resulted in banks being involved in subprime lending activities and hence, a reason behind the financial turmoil. The aim of this paper is to scrutinise the special role of banks in the global financial crisis and to stress on the need for increased regulation and their implications on the banking sector. The current study will thus contribute to the examination of the salient features of the global financial crisis and provide regulatory suggestions for the banking sector and the government as a whole.


Author(s):  
Philani Mthembu

AbstractAs South Africa looks to consolidate its role as a development partner, it remains an open question whether it can maintain a strong presence in Africa while facing significant challenges at home. With the economy struggling to grow and the government increasingly cutting back on expenditure, one has to wonder whether these cuts are translating into a reduction of its role as a development partner in Africa. With the eagerly awaited South African Development Partnership Agency in mind, this chapter examines data from the African Renaissance and International Cooperation Fund (ARF) between 2003 and 2015. It shows empirically that, despite increasing allocations and disbursements in the years following its inception, the global financial crisis and domestic challenges have taken their toll on the ARF’s activities.


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