scholarly journals Space-time permutation model applied to the past outbreak data of lumpy skin disease in the Balkan Peninsula from august 2015 to july 2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-55
Author(s):  
Zharko Stojmanovski
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Balkan Peninsula ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Serbia And Montenegro ◽  
Disease Clusters ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Permutation Model ◽  
First Time

Introduction: In August 2015, lumpy skin disease (LSD) was notified for the first time in mainland European Union when it was observed in cattle in Greece. From August 2015 to July 2017, 1,757 outbreaks were reported in cattle in Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro. Materials and Methods: The Kulldorff space-time permutation scan statistic contained in the software package SaTScan v 9.4.4 was used to analyse the epizootic past outbreak data and describe the spread of the disease in the 24 months after the first notification. Results and Conclusions:: Seventy-six space-time disease clusters (62 significant and 14 non-significant) were identified. In 2015, 10 clusters with a monthly peak in October (n=5, 50%) were identified, in 2016, the most (n=57) clusters were detected with monthly peak in July (n=15, 26.3%), and up to July 2017, nine clusters with a monthly peak in May (n=3, 3.3%) were determined. Possible high-risk areas were identified using the presented methodology, and so this technique could guide national veterinary authorities to formulate strategies for mitigating the spread of LSD, allocating resources and for formulating epidemiological preparedness plans in neighbouring, LSD-negative, countries.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of the Bluetongue Epizooty in the Balkan Peninsula from 2014 to February 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zharko Stojmanovski ◽  
Blagojcho Tabakovski
Keyword(s):  
Balkan Peninsula ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Disease Clusters ◽  
Temporal Characteristics ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Characteristics

Abstract Starting in May 2014 an emerging Bluetongue (BT) serotype 4 (BTV-4) epizooty has affected the ruminant population of eleven countries from the Balkan Peninsula. Consequently, the veterinary services implemented various bio-security measures and a considerable discussion has been raised if future BTV surveillance and preventive measures should be taken in risk based zones and periods. Therefore, the objective of this work was to describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of the BTV-4 epizooty in the Balkan Peninsula from May 2014 to February 2015. We used the space-time permutation model of the scan statistic to identify the space-time disease clusters. The scan statistic was parameterized to a maximum temporal length of 150 days (duration of the epizooty in the Balkans in 2014) and a radius of 100 km as a maximum spatial cluster size (protection zone for BT). Results were significant (p < 0.05) to the maximum spatial size defined for the clusters. From the 6295 BT outbreaks the scan statistics identified 33 disease clusters in nine Balkan countries. The highest number of outbreaks occurred from September to November 2014.The earliest cluster was detected in Greece in July 2014 with a radius of 56 km. The latest cluster was detected in Croatia in February 2015 with a radius of 99,8 km. These results are a first description of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2014-February 2015 BT epizooty in the Balkans.

scholarly journals Space–Time Clustering Characteristics of Malaria in Bhutan at the End Stages of Elimination

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5553
Author(s):  
Kinley Wangdi ◽  
Kinley Penjor ◽  
Tobgyal ◽  
Saranath Lawpoolsri ◽  
Ric N. Price ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Program ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Data Repository ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Disease Control Program ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Program Data ◽  
Time Scan

Malaria in Bhutan has fallen significantly over the last decade. As Bhutan attempts to eliminate malaria in 2022, this study aimed to characterize the space–time clustering of malaria from 2010 to 2019. Malaria data were obtained from the Bhutan Vector-Borne Disease Control Program data repository. Spatial and space–time cluster analyses of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax cases were conducted at the sub-district level from 2010 to 2019 using Kulldorff’s space–time scan statistic. A total of 768 confirmed malaria cases, including 454 (59%) P. vivax cases, were reported in Bhutan during the study period. Significant temporal clusters of cases caused by both species were identified between April and September. The most likely spatial clusters were detected in the central part of Bhutan throughout the study period. The most likely space–time cluster was in Sarpang District and neighboring districts between January 2010 to June 2012 for cases of infection with both species. The most likely cluster for P. falciparum infection had a radius of 50.4 km and included 26 sub-districts with a relative risk (RR) of 32.7. The most likely cluster for P. vivax infection had a radius of 33.6 km with 11 sub-districts and RR of 27.7. Three secondary space–time clusters were detected in other parts of Bhutan. Spatial and space–time cluster analysis identified high-risk areas and periods for both P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria. Both malaria types showed significant spatial and spatiotemporal variations. Operational research to understand the drivers of residual transmission in hotspot sub-districts will help to overcome the final challenges of malaria elimination in Bhutan.

scholarly journals The First Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreak in Thailand (2021): Epidemiological Features and Spatio-Temporal Analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orapun Arjkumpa ◽  
Minta Suwannaboon ◽  
Manoch Boonrod ◽  
Issara Punyawan ◽  
Supawadee Liangchaisiri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Cattle Farms

The first outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in Thailand was reported in March 2021, but information on the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak is very limited. The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemiological features of LSD outbreaks and to identify the outbreak spatio-temporal clusters. The LSD-affected farms located in Roi Et province were investigated by veterinary authorities under the outbreak response program. A designed questionnaire was used to obtain the data. Space-time permutation (STP) and Poisson space-time (Poisson ST) models were used to detect areas of high LSD incidence. The authorities identified 293 LSD outbreak farms located in four different districts during the period of March and the first week of April 2021. The overall morbidity and mortality of the affected cattle were 40.5 and 1.2%, respectively. The STP defined seven statistically significant clusters whereas only one cluster was identified by the Poisson ST model. Most of the clusters (n = 6) from the STP had a radius &lt;7 km, and the number of LSD cases in those clusters varied in range of 3–51. On the other hand, the most likely cluster from the Poisson ST included LSD cases (n = 361) from 198 cattle farms with a radius of 17.07 km. This is the first report to provide an epidemiological overview and determine spatio-temporal clusters of the first LSD outbreak in cattle farms in Thailand. The findings from this study may serve as a baseline information for future epidemiological studies and support authorities to establish effective control programs for LSD in Thailand.

scholarly journals Identification of Lumpy skin disease (LSD): First-time in Bangladesh during the investigation of unknown skin disease of cattle

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
pp. 360-361
Author(s):  
F. Talukdar ◽  
A. Fakir ◽  
Z. Hasan ◽  
T.M.G. Osmani ◽  
G.A. Choudhury ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
First Time

scholarly journals A model-adjusted space–time scan statistic with an application to syndromic surveillance

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. P. KLEINMAN ◽  
A. M. ABRAMS ◽  
M. KULLDORFF ◽  
R. PLATT
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Local History ◽  
Group Practice ◽  
Scan Statistic ◽  
Disease Clusters ◽  
Geographical Patterns ◽  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
History Of ◽  
Time Scan

The space–time scan statistic is often used to identify incident disease clusters. We introduce a method to adjust for naturally occurring temporal trends or geographical patterns in illness. The space–time scan statistic was applied to reports of lower respiratory complaints in a large group practice. We compared its performance with unadjusted populations from: (1) the census, (2) group-practice membership counts, and on adjustments incorporating (3) day of week, month, and holidays; and (4) additionally, local history of illness. Using a nominal false detection rate of 5%, incident clusters during 1 year were identified on 26, 22, 4 and 2% of days for the four populations respectively. We show that it is important to account for naturally occurring temporal and geographic trends when using the space–time scan statistic for surveillance. The large number of days with clusters renders the census and membership approaches impractical for public health surveillance. The proposed adjustment allows practical surveillance.

scholarly journals Mechanical Transmission of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus by Stomoxys spp. (Stomoxys calsitrans, Stomoxys sitiens, Stomoxys indica), Diptera: Muscidae

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 477
Author(s):  
Arman Issimov ◽  
Lespek Kutumbetov ◽  
Mukhit B. Orynbayev ◽  
Berik Khairullin ◽  
Balzhan Myrzakhmetova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Virus ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Severe Case ◽  
Mechanical Transmission ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease Virus ◽  
First Time

Samples collected for PCR from recipient animals tested positive in 5 out of 6 cases, while the virus was isolated from 4 of 6 animals. The clinical signs exhibited by recipient animals were mostly moderate in nature with only one severe case. To our knowledge, this is the first time that transmission of LSDV by three Stomoxys species has been demonstrated, and their role as mechanical vectors of LSDV is indicated.

scholarly journals Outbreak investigation of lumpy skin disease in dairy farms at Barishal, Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-209
Author(s):  
Md. Ibrahim Khalil ◽  
Mohammad Ferdous Rahman Sarker ◽  
F. M. Yasir Hasib ◽  
Sharmin Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Dairy Farms ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Morbidity Rate ◽  
Crossbred Cattle ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Cattle Disease ◽  
Outbreak Area ◽  
Steroid Drugs ◽  
First Time

Lumpy skin disease is explained as a significant cattle disease affecting cattle of many parts of the world. An outbreak was experienced in different parts of Bangladesh including Barishal for the first time in the last quarter of 2019. This investigation was carried out to know the outbreak scenario of the disease in southern part of Bangladesh. A total of 726 cattle were included in this study covering 50 dairy farms of Barishal region from September 2019 to December 2019. Morbidity rate was found 21% (CI: 18-24%) and mortality was 1% (CI: 1-2%) in the outbreak area. Young animals (24%) and pregnant animals (70%) were significantly more susceptible compared to aged animals (17%) and non-pregnant animals (15%), respectively. Moreover, male and crossbred cattle were slightly more prone to the infection in comparison to their counterparts. About 45% of the affected animals showed nodular and remaining 55% had edematous lesions. Almost 90% of the affected animals were treated with NSAID followed by antibiotics, antihistaminic, steroid drugs and antiviral drugs where only 20% of the affected animals were treated by authorized veterinary personnel. This was the first epidemiological investigation in the mentioned outbreak area which may serve as a baseline for LSD research in the location needed for developing effective control strategy.

Isolation and molecular identification of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) virus from infected cattle in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 15-20
Author(s):  
M Giasuddin ◽  
MA Yousuf ◽  
M Hasan ◽  
MH Rahman ◽  
MZ Hassan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Infected Animal ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Infected Cattle ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Cattle Disease ◽  
Nodular Lesions ◽  
The Many ◽  
First Time ◽  
Ocular Discharge

Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is a new disease of cattle in Bangladesh. It is endemic in Africa but through the last few years disease beings to spread to other countries of the world. The disease was widely spreaded in the many other countries in Asia and some parts of Europe. In Bangladesh, the disease was first time detected in April 2019, in southern part and then continued to spread all over the country.The disease caused enormous economic losses causing cutaneous and internal lesions, affecting milk production, hide quality and in some cases death of infected animal. LSD suspected samples were collected from different areas of the country during the period from July 2019 to January 2020. In this study, a total of 36 clinically suspected LSD samples of skin crustnodules, pus and ocular discharge were collected. Samples were examined by the published PCR protocol for LSD virus, GPV and SPV. Around 78% samples were found positive for LSD virus in PCR test. LSD virus was also identified from pus and ocular discharge of infected cattle. The virus can grow in the lamb testicular cell and clinically the disease is characterized by distinctive nodular lesions mostly on the skin of the affected animals.The results indicated that the LSD virus is circulating in the outbreak are as and is an emerging transboundary cattle disease in Bangladesh. Bang. J. Livs. Res. Vol. 26 (1&2), 2019: P. 15-20

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