scholarly journals The First Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreak in Thailand (2021): Epidemiological Features and Spatio-Temporal Analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orapun Arjkumpa ◽  
Minta Suwannaboon ◽  
Manoch Boonrod ◽  
Issara Punyawan ◽  
Supawadee Liangchaisiri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Cattle Farms

The first outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in Thailand was reported in March 2021, but information on the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak is very limited. The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemiological features of LSD outbreaks and to identify the outbreak spatio-temporal clusters. The LSD-affected farms located in Roi Et province were investigated by veterinary authorities under the outbreak response program. A designed questionnaire was used to obtain the data. Space-time permutation (STP) and Poisson space-time (Poisson ST) models were used to detect areas of high LSD incidence. The authorities identified 293 LSD outbreak farms located in four different districts during the period of March and the first week of April 2021. The overall morbidity and mortality of the affected cattle were 40.5 and 1.2%, respectively. The STP defined seven statistically significant clusters whereas only one cluster was identified by the Poisson ST model. Most of the clusters (n = 6) from the STP had a radius <7 km, and the number of LSD cases in those clusters varied in range of 3–51. On the other hand, the most likely cluster from the Poisson ST included LSD cases (n = 361) from 198 cattle farms with a radius of 17.07 km. This is the first report to provide an epidemiological overview and determine spatio-temporal clusters of the first LSD outbreak in cattle farms in Thailand. The findings from this study may serve as a baseline information for future epidemiological studies and support authorities to establish effective control programs for LSD in Thailand.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis and visualisation of the anthrax epidemic situation in livestock in Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov ◽  
Yersyn Y. Mukhanbetkaliyev ◽  
Fedor I. Korennoy ◽  
Bolat Sh. Karatayev ◽  
Aizada A. Mukhanbetkaliyeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Small Ruminants ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Historical Periods

An analysis of the anthrax epidemic situation among livestock animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016 is presented. During this time, 4,064 anthrax outbreaks (mainly in cattle, small ruminants, pigs and horses) were recorded. They fall into five historical periods of increase and decrease in the annual anthrax incidence (1933-1953; 1954-1968; 1969-1983; 1984- 2001; and 2002-2016), which has been associated with changes in economic activity and veterinary surveillance. To evaluate the temporal trends of incidence variation for each of these time periods, the following methods were applied: i) spatio-temporal analysis using a space-time cube to assess the presence of hotspots (i.e., areas of outbreak clustering) and the trends of their emergence over time; and ii) a linear regression model that was used to evaluate the annual numbers of outbreaks as a function of time. The results show increasing trends during the first two periods followed by a decreasing trend up to now. The peak years of anthrax outbreaks occurred in 1965-1968 but outbreaks still continue with an average annual number of outbreaks of 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.8). The space-time analysis approach enabled visualisation of areas with statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends of outbreak clustering providing a practical opportunity to inform decision-makers and allowing the veterinary services to concentrate their efforts on monitoring the possible risk factors in the identified locations.

scholarly journals Role of Wild Boar in the Spread of Classical Swine Fever in Japan

Pathogens ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ito ◽  
Jurado ◽  
Bosch ◽  
Ito ◽  
Sánchez-Vizcaíno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wild Boar ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Classical Swine Fever ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Domestic Pig ◽  
Potential Contact ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Gifu Prefecture

Since September 2018, nearly 900 notifications of classical swine fever (CSF) have been reported in Gifu Prefecture (Japan) affecting domestic pig and wild boar by the end of August 2019. To determine the epidemiological characteristics of its spread, a spatio-temporal analysis was performed using actual field data on the current epidemic. The spatial study, based on standard deviational ellipses of official CSF notifications, showed that the disease likely spread to the northeast part of the prefecture. A maximum significant spatial association estimated between CSF notifications was 23 km by the multi-distance spatial cluster analysis. A space-time permutation analysis identified two significant clusters with an approximate radius of 12 and 20 km and 124 and 98 days of duration, respectively. When the area of the identified clusters was overlaid on a map of habitat quality, approximately 82% and 75% of CSF notifications, respectively, were found in areas with potential contact between pigs and wild boar. The obtained results provide information on the current CSF epidemic, which is mainly driven by wild boar cases with sporadic outbreaks on domestic pig farms. These findings will help implement control measures in Gifu Prefecture.

scholarly journals Formation of a system of indicators of balanced economic development in the context of globalization: space-time analysis in order to ensure economic security

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 07001
Author(s):  
Lubov Afanasyeva ◽  
Larisa Belousova ◽  
Tatyana Tkacheva
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Time Analysis ◽  
Balanced Development ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Research background: The modern world economy of the 21st century, being innovatively oriented, global and based on the information space, is constantly being modified, focusing on the growth of the level and quality of life of the population by accelerating innovation processes. For the purposes of monitoring the innovation and investment activities of the regions in order to ensure the economic security of Russia, it is necessary to have a system of indicators that reflect the processes of innovative development of its territories as comprehensively as possible. Purpose of the article: Formation of a system of indicators for the balanced development of the region’s economy in the context of globalization: space-time analysis in order to ensure economic security. Methods: Spatio-temporal analysis of the identified indicators of balanced development of the regional economy in order to ensure economic security. Findings & Value added: The proposed system of indicators of economic security of the region and their threshold values can be used in assessing the development forecasts of the regions and the Federal Districts developed by the administration, draft budgets, expertise of the federal target programs, as well as in other elements of the regional economic security management.

scholarly journals The Effect of Vaccination with Live Attenuated Neethling Lumpy Skin Disease Vaccine on Milk Production and Mortality—An Analysis of 77 Dairy Farms in Israel

Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Morgenstern ◽  
Eyal Klement
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Milk Production ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Post Vaccination ◽  
Efficient Measure ◽  
Daily Milk Production ◽  
Cattle Farms

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an economically important, arthropod borne viral disease of cattle. Vaccination by the live attenuated homologous Neethling vaccine was shown as the most efficient measure for controlling LSD. However, adverse effects due to vaccination were never quantified in a controlled field study. The aim of this study was to quantify the milk production loss and mortality due to vaccination against LSD. Daily milk production, as well as culling and mortality, were retrieved for 21,844 cows accommodated in 77 dairy cattle farms in Israel. Adjusted milk production was calculated for each day during the 30 days post vaccination. This was compared to the preceding month by fitting mixed effects linear models. Culling and mortality rates were compared between the 60 days periods prior and post vaccination, by survival analysis. The results of the models indicate no significant change in milk production during the 30 days post vaccination period. No difference was observed between the pre- and post-vaccination periods in routine culling, as well as in immediate culling and in-farm mortality. We conclude that adverse effects due to Neethling vaccination are negligible.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks in cattle in Odisha state, India in August 2019: Epidemiological features and molecular studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 2408-2422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shashi B. Sudhakar ◽  
Niranjan Mishra ◽  
Semmannan Kalaiyarasu ◽  
Sandeep K. Jhade ◽  
Divakar Hemadri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Molecular Studies

scholarly journals Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 5911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Masrur ◽  
Manzhu Yu ◽  
Wei Luo ◽  
Ashraf Dewan
Keyword(s):  
Public Awareness ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Active Cluster

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a significant public health threat worldwide, particularly in densely populated countries such as Bangladesh with inadequate health care facilities. While early detection and isolation were identified as important non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures for containing the disease spread, this may not have been pragmatically implementable in developing countries due to social and economic reasons (i.e., poor education, less public awareness, massive unemployment). Hence, to elucidate COVID-19 transmission dynamics with respect to the NPI status—e.g., social distancing—this study conducted spatio-temporal analysis using the prospective scanning statistic at district and sub-district levels in Bangladesh and its capital, Dhaka city, respectively. Dhaka megacity has remained the highest-risk “active” cluster since early April. Lately, the central and south eastern regions in Bangladesh have been exhibiting a high risk of COVID-19 transmission. The detected space-time progression of COVID-19 infection suggests that Bangladesh has experienced a community-level transmission at the early phase (i.e., March, 2020), primarily introduced by Bangladeshi citizens returning from coronavirus epicenters in Europe and the Middle East. Potential linkages exist between the violation of NPIs and the emergence of new higher-risk clusters over the post-incubation periods around Bangladesh. Novel insights into the COVID-19 transmission dynamics derived in this study on Bangladesh provide important policy guidelines for early preparations and pragmatic NPI measures to effectively deal with infectious diseases in resource-scarce countries worldwide.

scholarly journals G-STC-M Spatio-Temporal Analysis Method for Archaeological Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 312
Author(s):  
Jing Cui ◽  
Yanrong Liu ◽  
Junling Sun ◽  
Di Hu ◽  
Handong He
Keyword(s):  
Qing Dynasty ◽  
Tang Dynasty ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
The Qing Dynasty ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Based on the significant hotspots analysis method (Getis-Ord Gi* significance statistics), space-time cube model (STC) and the Mann–Kendall trend test method, this paper proposes a G-STC-M spatio-temporal analysis method based on Archaeological Sites. This method can integrate spatio-temporal data variable analysis and the space-time cube model to explore the spatio-temporal distribution of Archaeological Sites. The G-STC-M method was used to conduct time slice analysis on the data of Archaeological Sites in the study area, and the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of Archaeological Sites in East China from the Tang Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty were discussed. The distribution of Archaeological Sites has temporal hotspots and spatial hotspots. Temporally, the distribution of Archaeological Sites showed a gradual increasing trend, and the number of Archaeological Sites reached the maximum in the Qing Dynasty. Spatially, the hotspots of Archaeological Sites are mainly distributed in Jiangsu (30°~33° N, 118°~121° E) and Anhui (29°~31° N, 117°~119° E) and the central region of Zhejiang (28°~31° N, 118°~121° E). Temporally and spatially, the distribution of Archaeological Sites is mainly centered in Shanghai (30°~32° N, 121°~122° E), spreading to the southern region.

scholarly journals Quantifying and Modeling the Acquisition and Retention of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus by Hematophagus Insects Reveals Clinically but Not Subclinically Affected Cattle Are Promoters of Viral Transmission and Key Targets for Control of Disease Outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 95 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz Sanz-Bernardo ◽  
Ismar R. Haga ◽  
Najith Wijesiriwardana ◽  
Sanjay Basu ◽  
Will Larner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Aedes Aegypti ◽  
Disease Virus ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stomoxys Calcitrans ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Vector Species ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease Virus ◽  
Content Type

ABSTRACT Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a vector-transmitted poxvirus that causes disease in cattle. Vector species involved in LSDV transmission and their ability to acquire and transmit the virus are poorly characterized. Using a highly representative bovine experimental model of lumpy skin disease, we fed four model vector species (Aedes aegypti, Culex quinquefasciatus, Stomoxys calcitrans, and Culicoides nubeculosus) on LSDV-inoculated cattle in order to examine their acquisition and retention of LSDV. Subclinical disease was a more common outcome than clinical disease in the inoculated cattle. Importantly, the probability of vectors acquiring LSDV from a subclinical animal (0.006) was very low compared with that from a clinical animal (0.23), meaning an insect feeding on a subclinical animal was 97% less likely to acquire LSDV than one feeding on a clinical animal. All four potential vector species studied acquired LSDV from the host at a similar rate, but Aedes aegypti and Stomoxys calcitrans retained the virus for a longer time, up to 8 days. There was no evidence of virus replication in the vector, consistent with mechanical rather than biological transmission. The parameters obtained in this study were combined with data from studies of LSDV transmission and vector life history parameters to determine the basic reproduction number of LSDV in cattle mediated by each of the model species. This reproduction number was highest for Stomoxys calcitrans (19.1), followed by C. nubeculosus (7.1) and Ae. aegypti (2.4), indicating that these three species are potentially efficient transmitters of LSDV; this information can be used to inform LSD control programs. IMPORTANCE Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) causes a severe systemic disease characterized by cutaneous nodules in cattle. LSDV is a rapidly emerging pathogen, having spread since 2012 into Europe and Russia and across Asia. The vector-borne nature of LSDV transmission is believed to have promoted this rapid geographic spread of the virus; however, a lack of quantitative evidence about LSDV transmission has hampered effective control of the disease during the current epidemic. Our research shows subclinical cattle play little part in virus transmission relative to clinical cattle and reveals a low probability of virus acquisition by insects at the preclinical stage. We have also calculated the reproductive number of different insect species, therefore identifying efficient transmitters of LSDV. This information is of utmost importance, as it will help to define epidemiological control measures during LSDV epidemics and of particular consequence in resource-poor regions where LSD vaccination may be less than adequate.

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