Monitoring and Screening of Pipelines for Movement: A Fast and Cost-Effective Alternative for Pipeline Operators to Measure Drift in Pipelines

Author(s):  
Michael Schorr ◽  
Klaas Kole ◽  
Ferdinand Foessing

Abstract For pipelines in the oil, gas, and mining industry, movement of pipelines is one of the main integrity hazards. This movement in most cases is caused by landslides instigated by heavy rain, earthquakes or volcanic activities. If the pipeline movement remains undetected at an early stage, it can lead to the need for costly repairs to prevent, remove, or repair potential or actual damage. Moreover, if the movements stay undetected for too long, these lines may fail and lead to catastrophic events. This paper will illustrate what a fast and cost-effective solution to avoid these threats at an early stage looks like and how it works. It will explain the process and demonstrate the full power of this technology on the basis of a case study. The standard solution for pipelines without a permanent position monitoring system at the time of installation includes the use of intelligent tools that are able to detect even the slightest changes in the trajectory. These inspection tools are quite expensive to run, especially when multiple screening runs are required throughout a year, e.g. before and after the rainy season or after a seismic event. Other monitoring solutions are either limited to only a specific area where the movement has already been detected at an earlier stage or lack the precision required to serve as an early warning system, such as LIDAR or satellite image comparison. Over the years, ROSEN has developed a technology that can bridge the gap between frequent measurements and cost-effective service. It is based on an electronic gyroscope that is commonly used in Inline Inspection tools but can also be installed in readily available cleaning tools. When first run in a pipeline, it records the whole pipeline trajectory, leaving no segment undocumented. The next step is to compare these recorded pipeline routing measurements with already existing trajectory baseline data, recorded earlier by any ILI tool with an optical gyro or similar. This comparison will reveal any deviation between both trajectories and precisely determine any pipeline movement. A case study will demonstrate how the comparison is achieved. When performing repetitive inspections, this screening comparison enables the operators to detect the onset of movements and monitor the progress of any known pipeline movement. It allows them to distinguish between stable areas from dynamic ground movements and keeps close track of changes in the pipe course. Through regular repetitions, any further development of the movement is tracked, and appropriate reactive measures can be scheduled in a timely manner. This new service provides a cost-effective and powerful early warning tool for geological pipeline integrity threats that can lead to loss of integrity, the asset, or — worst-case scenario — loss of life or environmental contamination, while at the same time, it reduces the necessity of pipeline intervention that will affect production.

Author(s):  
Ning Huan ◽  
Enjian Yao ◽  
Binbin Li

Recently, surges of passengers caused by large gatherings, temporary traffic control measures, or other abnormal events have frequently occurred in metro systems. From the standpoint of the operation managers, the available information about these outside events is incomplete or delayed. Unlike regular peaks of commuting, those unforeseen surges pose great challenges to emergency organization and safety management. This study aims to assist managers in monitoring passenger flow in an intelligent manner so as to react promptly. Compared with the high cost of deploying multisensors, the widely adopted automated fare collection (AFC) system provides an economical solution for inflow monitoring from the application point of view. In this paper, a comprehensive framework for the early warning mechanism is established, including four major phases: data acquisition, preprocessing, off-line modeling, and on-line detection. For each station, passengers’ tapping-on records are gathered in real time, to be further transformed into a dynamic time series of inflow volumes. Then, a sequence decomposition model is formulated to highlight the anomaly by removing its inherent disturbances. Furthermore, a novel hybrid anomaly detection method is developed to monitor the variation of passenger flow, in which the features of inflow patterns are fully considered. The proposed method is tested by a numerical experiment, along with a real-world case study of Guangzhou metro. The results show that, for most cases, the response time for detection is within 5 min, which makes the surge phenomenon observable at an early stage and reminds managers to make interventions appropriately.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Huang ◽  
Theodoor Wouterus Johannes van Asch ◽  
Changming Wang ◽  
Qiao Li

Abstract. Gully-type debris flow induced by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall frequently causes great loss of properties and causalities in mountainous regions of southwest China. In order to reduce the risk by geohazards, early warning systems have been provided. A triggering index can be detected in an early stage by the monitoring of rainfall and the changes in physical properties of the deposited materials along debris flow channels. Based on the method of critical pore pressure for slope stability analysis, this study presents critical pore pressure threshold in combination with rainfall factors for gully-type debris flow early warning. The Wenjia gully, which contains an enormous amount of loose material, was selected as a case study to reveal the relationship between the rainfall and pore pressure by field monitoring data. A three-level early warning system (zero, attention, and warning) is adopted and the corresponding judgement conditions are defined in real time. Based on this threshold, there are several rainfall events in recent years have been validated in Wenjia gully, which prove that such a combined threshold may be a reliable approach for the early warning of gully-type debris flow to safeguard the population in the mountainous areas.


Author(s):  
Eisawy Mohamed ◽  
Renardo-Florin Teodor

During fabrication process, material deformations are likely to occur due to various factors such as heat during steel cutting, welding induced deformations, lifting and turning of ship sections, temporary stiffening and other possible modifications of ship sections. Lifting induced deformations is one of the major causes of deformations that highly affect the production cost and quality. The aim of this thesis is to outline the main causes of deformations that occur in ship sections during fabrication and to analyse in detail the lifting and turning operations of one ship section using the Finite Element Method (FEM). A strength check using the FEM has been performed on the selected ship section to investigate the deformations and stresses in two different cases with three different loading conditions. First, the section has been analysed without temporary stiffening in three load scenarios: lifting before turning, worst-case scenario during turning and lifting after turning. Similarly, the second case study has been analysed but with the temporary stiffening added according to the lifting plan. Various influencing parameters that determine the lifting plan has been investigated such as the sling angle which directly affects the deformation characteristics. It is observed that the addition of temporary stiffening is essential to minimize the deformations and to maintain the stress levels below the yield point.


1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Ramos

The study of slave mortality and morbidity in Brazil has been very difficult because of the extreme paucity of sources. Techniques which have been useful in studying the lives of free men and women seldom are useful for analyzing their slaves. The use of parish records such as baptism and death registers is not possible because of the custom of listing only the slave's first name and the unimaginative choice of names which resulted in large numbers of Joãos, Josés, Manuels, Antônios, Antonias, Joanas, and, of course, Marias. Equally important, the types of plantation records available to students of U.S. slavery have seldom been found for Brazil.This essay is an examination of an isolated slave register, which, for a series of idiosyncratic reasons, provides information permitting a glimpse at mortality and morbidity in a distinct and carefully controlled slave population. Because the slaves involved were used in diamond mining under horrendous conditions it is probable that the conclusions reached in this essay represent a worst case scenario. Rather than typical, this is a special case where work and living conditions were probably worse than in plantation zones and certainly worse than in urban areas. It is this situation which makes the conclusions of this essay quite startling.


2019 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 03002
Author(s):  
Derrick Martin Adjei Sowa

Given the adverse externalities of hydrocarbon operations, particularly the impacts of oil spills – environmental, political, cultural and socio-economic – the hypothetical simulations of oil spills enhances the study and appreciation of the trajectory and fate of spilled oil in the marine environment; so as to plan timely and cost effective clean-up responses and management strategies. This paper therefore presents the results of a rapid hypothetical simulation of oil spills in Ghana’s coastal waters, and the clean-up technique(s) most applicable in the area. Using MIKE 21, tidal elevations were used as forcing to run the hydrodynamic model, after which a series of hypothetical simulations were conducted with the worst case scenario divulging both the trajectories of the oil slicks and the potential areas to be impacted. The simulation results closely matched the results highlighted in the Phase-1-Development EIA report of the Jubilee Field. Following the simulation, an assessment of the most viable clean-up technique was conducted. Given the geophysical state of the coastal system and the met-ocean conditions, the mechanical recovery method, complemented by bioremediation, is most applicable due to its marginal environmental impacts.


Author(s):  
Gerasimos A. Kolokythas ◽  
Bart De Maerschalck ◽  
Joris Vanlede ◽  
Kai Chu

The effect of sea level rise on the hydrodynamic flow in the Belgian coastal zone is investigated in the light of the nautical accessibility of the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium. To this end, numerical simulations are performed considering three different scenarios of sea level rise along with a reference scenario (current situation). Specifically, a moderate, a warm and a worst case scenario of sea level rise (SLR) equal to 60 cm, 90 cm and 200 cm by the year 2100, are considered. The main objective is to find out how the strong tidal currents, which are mainly directed transversely to the access channel and limit the access to the port to a certain tidal window, will be affected by the considered SLR scenarios.


2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 698
Author(s):  
M. Sadegh Asadi ◽  
Amitava Ghosh ◽  
Sanjeev Bordoloi ◽  
Michael Reese

This case study demonstrates the significance of integrated pre-drill geomechanical modelling and real-time monitoring for drilling wildcat exploratory wells in the deepwater settings of an offshore field in South-East Asia. The key challenges in the area include deeper water depths (1.6 km), lack of relevant offset well information and a complex geological setting. In this project, the primary input data for the pre-drill geomechanical model were low resolution 2D seismic velocities derived from an un-calibrated velocity model and petrophysical data from an offset well located in shallow waters, 100 km away from the deepwater prospect. During pre-drill planning, a contingency casing plan was put in place to consider the uncertainties in the model and cover the worst-case scenario of high pore pressure (PP). To reduce the uncertainty during drilling, the well was monitored in real-time and the pre-drill predictions improved whenever new information or data became available. The objective was to have good data coverage to assist in real-time geomechanical modelling for operational decision making. Real-time wellbore stability monitoring was carried out by utilising all available drilling and logging data as well as logging while drilling (LWD), pressure measurements and seismic while drilling (SWD) velocities. Wellsite interpretation on cuttings, cavings and formation gases were also integrated into the model predictions. Based on real-time monitoring, pre-drill predictions and model parameters were continuously updated for the next planned section at the end of each section target depth (TD). Interactive real-time monitoring with continuous pre-drill model updates before drilling the subsequent sections helped to not only deepen the intermediate hole sections, but also to drill efficiently with proper mud weight management and without any significant wellbore instability issues. This integrated workflow helped to successfully drill two exploratory wells, with the major benefit of eliminating the contingency 6ʹʹ slim-hole section.


1998 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim E. Carpenter ◽  
Michael D. McBride ◽  
David W. Hird

We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Melo ◽  
José Luís Zêzere ◽  
Sérgio Oliveira ◽  
Ricardo Garcia ◽  
Sandra Oliveira ◽  
...  

<p>During the last two centuries, several debris flow events occurred in the upper part of the Zêzere valley, which is located in the Estrela mountain, in Central Portugal. These events were responsible for material damage as well as for the loss of lives. Given the susceptibility of this area to the occurrence of debris flows, a methodology for pedestrian evacuation modelling was implemented, in order to identify buildings at risk and pedestrian travel times to safety areas in a debris flow worst-case scenario. Starting from a dynamic run-out model, developed in previous works, the potential debris flow intensity was estimated (e.g. flow depth, velocity and run-out distance). Sequentially, the buildings potentially affected by the impact of debris flows, as well as the ones where the evacuation would take longer than the debris flows arrival, were identified. In addition, the potentially exposed population was estimated by applying a dasymetric distribution to each residential building. This population distribution took into account the identification of the older residents as the most exposed to debris flows, which is critical to develop reliable pedestrian evacuation travel time scenarios. The pedestrian evacuation modelling was performed using the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, a GIS tool developed by the United States Geological Survey. The evacuation modelling was based on an anisotropic approach, which considers the influence of slope direction on travel costs, thus its application is suitable in a mountainous area. The implemented methodology is a critical step towards the implementation of a reliable early warning system to debris flows that can be reproduced elsewhere.</p><p><strong>Funding information</strong>: This work was financed by national funds through FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., under the framework of the project BeSafeSlide—Landslide Early Warning soft technology prototype to improve community resilience and adaptation to environmental change (PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017) and by the Research Unit UIDB/00295/2020. Pedro Pinto Santos is funded by FCT through the project with the reference CEEIND/00268/2017.</p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Zull ◽  
J. Owens ◽  
M. Bourgault ◽  
B. Johnson ◽  
G. Peck ◽  
...  

Many farmers in Australia and in other countries have a choice of crop or livestock production, and many choose a mixture of both, based on risk preference, personal interests, markets, land resources and local climate. Mixed farming can be a risk-spreading strategy, especially in highly variable climates, but the right scales of each enterprise within the mix may be critical to farm profitability. To investigate expected farm profits, the probability of breaking even, as well as the worst and best case scenarios, we used farm data and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the production of a typical, semi-arid, mixed-farm in southern Queensland. Three farming system scenarios were investigated: I, livestock and more intensive cropping; II, current production system of livestock and minimal cropping; and III, livestock only. We found that the expected profits were in the order system I > system III > system II. The key reason for the lower profits of system II was the high overhead cost of capital to continue some cropping, with low annual cropping income. Under the worst case scenario, in years with low rainfall, system I had the greatest downside risk with far greater financial losses. Systems I and III had similar probabilities of breaking even, and higher than system II, which incurs cropping overheads and limited cropping returns. Therefore, system II was less desirable than either system I or III. This case study helps farmers and advisors of semi-arid mixed farming enterprises to be better informed when making decisions at the paddock and whole-farm level, in both the short and long term, with respect to profit and risk. The method used in this paper can be applied to other mixed farms, in Australia and elsewhere.


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