scholarly journals Mixed farming diversification may be costly: southern Queensland case study

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Zull ◽  
J. Owens ◽  
M. Bourgault ◽  
B. Johnson ◽  
G. Peck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Production Systems ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Order System ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Mixed Farming ◽  
The Right ◽  
Semi Arid

Many farmers in Australia and in other countries have a choice of crop or livestock production, and many choose a mixture of both, based on risk preference, personal interests, markets, land resources and local climate. Mixed farming can be a risk-spreading strategy, especially in highly variable climates, but the right scales of each enterprise within the mix may be critical to farm profitability. To investigate expected farm profits, the probability of breaking even, as well as the worst and best case scenarios, we used farm data and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the production of a typical, semi-arid, mixed-farm in southern Queensland. Three farming system scenarios were investigated: I, livestock and more intensive cropping; II, current production system of livestock and minimal cropping; and III, livestock only. We found that the expected profits were in the order system I > system III > system II. The key reason for the lower profits of system II was the high overhead cost of capital to continue some cropping, with low annual cropping income. Under the worst case scenario, in years with low rainfall, system I had the greatest downside risk with far greater financial losses. Systems I and III had similar probabilities of breaking even, and higher than system II, which incurs cropping overheads and limited cropping returns. Therefore, system II was less desirable than either system I or III. This case study helps farmers and advisors of semi-arid mixed farming enterprises to be better informed when making decisions at the paddock and whole-farm level, in both the short and long term, with respect to profit and risk. The method used in this paper can be applied to other mixed farms, in Australia and elsewhere.

Animals as Persons and Why It Matters

2019 ◽  
pp. 194-200
Author(s):  
Mark Rowlands
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Treatment Paradigm ◽  
Principal Change ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Way

This book has been a protracted case in worst-case scenario philosophy. Assume the absolute worst about animals, and the most stringent conception of a person imaginable, and then argue that animals still qualify as persons. Some of the limitations of this strategy are identified. If animals are persons, it changes the way we think about our obligations to them. The principal change is from a treatment paradigm to a listening paradigm. In a treatment paradigm, the primary question is how we should treat them. This is an inadequate way of understanding our obligations to persons. For persons, prior to the question of how we should treat them is the necessity of listening to them: of learning to ask them the right questions and make ourselves capable of understanding their response.

Modeling the Evolution of Glyphosate Resistance in Barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli) in Cotton-Based Production Systems of the Midsouthern United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 475-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muthukumar V. Bagavathiannan ◽  
Jason K. Norsworthy ◽  
Kenneth L. Smith ◽  
Paul Neve
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Weed Management ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Glyphosate Resistance ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Resistance Evolution ◽  
Initial Frequency

Glyphosate-resistant (GR) weeds have been a prime challenge to the sustainability of GR cotton-based production systems of the midsouthern United States. Barnyardgrass is known to be a high-risk species for evolving herbicide resistance, and a simulation model was developed for understanding the likelihood of glyphosate resistance evolution in this species in cotton-based systems. Under a worst-case scenario of five glyphosate applications in monoculture GR cotton, the model predicts resistance evolution in about 9 yr of continuous glyphosate use, with about 47% risk by year 15. A unique insight from this model is that management in response to GR Palmer amaranth in this system (a reactive response) provided a proactive means to greatly reduce the risks of glyphosate resistance evolution in barnyardgrass. Subsequent model analysis revealed that the risk of resistance is high in fields characterized by high barnyardgrass seedbank levels, seedling emergence, and seed production per square meter, whereas the risk is low in fields with high levels of postdispersal seed loss and annual seedbank loss. The initial frequency of resistance alleles was a high determinant of resistance evolution (e.g., 47% risk at year 15 at an initial frequency of 5e−8vs. 4% risk at 5e−10). Monte Carlo simulations were performed to understand the influence of various glyphosate use patterns and production practices in reducing the rate and risk of glyphosate resistance evolution in barnyardgrass. Early planting and interrow cultivation are useful tools. Crop rotation is effective, but the diversity of weed management options practiced in the rotational crop is more important. Diversifying weed management options is the key, yet application timing and the choice of management option is critical. Model analyses illustrate the relative effectiveness of a number of diversified glyphosate use strategies in preventing resistance evolution and preserving the long-term utility of glyphosate in midsouthern U.S. cotton-based production systems.

scholarly journals Deformations on the ship sections during fabrication: cause and remedies

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Eisawy Mohamed ◽  
Renardo-Florin Teodor
Keyword(s):  
Production Cost ◽  
Deformation Characteristics ◽  
The Finite Element Method ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Turning Operations ◽  
Influencing Parameters ◽  
Steel Cutting ◽  
Process Material

During fabrication process, material deformations are likely to occur due to various factors such as heat during steel cutting, welding induced deformations, lifting and turning of ship sections, temporary stiffening and other possible modifications of ship sections. Lifting induced deformations is one of the major causes of deformations that highly affect the production cost and quality. The aim of this thesis is to outline the main causes of deformations that occur in ship sections during fabrication and to analyse in detail the lifting and turning operations of one ship section using the Finite Element Method (FEM). A strength check using the FEM has been performed on the selected ship section to investigate the deformations and stresses in two different cases with three different loading conditions. First, the section has been analysed without temporary stiffening in three load scenarios: lifting before turning, worst-case scenario during turning and lifting after turning. Similarly, the second case study has been analysed but with the temporary stiffening added according to the lifting plan. Various influencing parameters that determine the lifting plan has been investigated such as the sling angle which directly affects the deformation characteristics. It is observed that the addition of temporary stiffening is essential to minimize the deformations and to maintain the stress levels below the yield point.

Slavery in Brazil: A Case Study of Diamantina, Minas Gerais

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Diamond Mining ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Special Case

The study of slave mortality and morbidity in Brazil has been very difficult because of the extreme paucity of sources. Techniques which have been useful in studying the lives of free men and women seldom are useful for analyzing their slaves. The use of parish records such as baptism and death registers is not possible because of the custom of listing only the slave's first name and the unimaginative choice of names which resulted in large numbers of Joãos, Josés, Manuels, Antônios, Antonias, Joanas, and, of course, Marias. Equally important, the types of plantation records available to students of U.S. slavery have seldom been found for Brazil.This essay is an examination of an isolated slave register, which, for a series of idiosyncratic reasons, provides information permitting a glimpse at mortality and morbidity in a distinct and carefully controlled slave population. Because the slaves involved were used in diamond mining under horrendous conditions it is probable that the conclusions reached in this essay represent a worst case scenario. Rather than typical, this is a special case where work and living conditions were probably worse than in plantation zones and certainly worse than in urban areas. It is this situation which makes the conclusions of this essay quite startling.

Simulation of a legume ley farming system in northern Australia using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator

1996 ◽  
Vol 36 (8) ◽  
pp. 1037 ◽  
Author(s):  
PS Carberry ◽  
RL McCown ◽  
RC Muchow ◽  
JP Dimes ◽  
ME Probert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Cereal Crops ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Pasture Legumes ◽  
Ley Farming ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Agricultural Production Systems

An innovative ley farming system, involving cereal crops grown in rotation with pasture legumes, has been tentatively adopted by farmers in the semi-arid tropics of northern Australia. Yet, after more than a decade of experimental research, the long-term

scholarly journals IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ACCESSIBILITY OF COASTAL PORTS: A CASE STUDY OF THE PORT OF ZEEBRUGGE (BELGIUM)

2018 ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Gerasimos A. Kolokythas ◽  
Bart De Maerschalck ◽  
Joris Vanlede ◽  
Kai Chu
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Access Channel

The effect of sea level rise on the hydrodynamic flow in the Belgian coastal zone is investigated in the light of the nautical accessibility of the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium. To this end, numerical simulations are performed considering three different scenarios of sea level rise along with a reference scenario (current situation). Specifically, a moderate, a warm and a worst case scenario of sea level rise (SLR) equal to 60 cm, 90 cm and 200 cm by the year 2100, are considered. The main objective is to find out how the strong tidal currents, which are mainly directed transversely to the access channel and limit the access to the port to a certain tidal window, will be affected by the considered SLR scenarios.

Integrated pre-drill and real-time geomechanical modelling brings significant benefits to deepwater wildcat exploration drilling campaign – a case study

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 698
Author(s):  
M. Sadegh Asadi ◽  
Amitava Ghosh ◽  
Sanjeev Bordoloi ◽  
Michael Reese
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Wellbore Stability ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Seismic Velocities ◽  
Real Time Monitoring ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
Exploratory Wells

This case study demonstrates the significance of integrated pre-drill geomechanical modelling and real-time monitoring for drilling wildcat exploratory wells in the deepwater settings of an offshore field in South-East Asia. The key challenges in the area include deeper water depths (1.6 km), lack of relevant offset well information and a complex geological setting. In this project, the primary input data for the pre-drill geomechanical model were low resolution 2D seismic velocities derived from an un-calibrated velocity model and petrophysical data from an offset well located in shallow waters, 100 km away from the deepwater prospect. During pre-drill planning, a contingency casing plan was put in place to consider the uncertainties in the model and cover the worst-case scenario of high pore pressure (PP). To reduce the uncertainty during drilling, the well was monitored in real-time and the pre-drill predictions improved whenever new information or data became available. The objective was to have good data coverage to assist in real-time geomechanical modelling for operational decision making. Real-time wellbore stability monitoring was carried out by utilising all available drilling and logging data as well as logging while drilling (LWD), pressure measurements and seismic while drilling (SWD) velocities. Wellsite interpretation on cuttings, cavings and formation gases were also integrated into the model predictions. Based on real-time monitoring, pre-drill predictions and model parameters were continuously updated for the next planned section at the end of each section target depth (TD). Interactive real-time monitoring with continuous pre-drill model updates before drilling the subsequent sections helped to not only deepen the intermediate hole sections, but also to drill efficiently with proper mud weight management and without any significant wellbore instability issues. This integrated workflow helped to successfully drill two exploratory wells, with the major benefit of eliminating the contingency 6ʹʹ slim-hole section.

Perspectives on livestock production systems in China

2008 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 211 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. L. Li ◽  
Q. H. Yuan ◽  
L. Q. Wan ◽  
F. He
Keyword(s):  
Production Systems ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Mixed Farming ◽  
Rangeland Degradation ◽  
Grazing System ◽  
Output Market ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Harsh Climate

This review paper describes the livestock production systems in China, their status and trends, driving factors, and major issues with profound impact. Three distinct livestock production systems are discussed; grazing, mixed farming, and industrial systems. The ‘grazing system’ is generally characterised by harsh climate, rangeland, and low livestock output. Market forces, biophysical constraints and environmental concerns are putting a ceiling on the potential for intensification of the grazing system except in some areas where the agro-ecological potential permits. This system needs to be re-oriented towards adding ecosystem service provision, rather than mere production or subsistence. The ‘mixed farming system’, with the highest share of most kinds of livestock commodities, forms the backbone of China’s agriculture and is undertaking a notable intensification and specialisation process. The ‘industrial system’ is geographically concentrated in areas close to densely populated demand centers. Although growing fast, the share of national livestock output remains relatively small. The past two decades have seen a rapid growth in both consumption and production of livestock food products in China. This new food revolution has been driven to a great extent by the rapid growing economy, personal income and urbanisation. Among the most important issues related to livestock production systems in China are severe rangeland degradation, caused mainly by overexploitation of these lands, increasing demand and competition for feed grain, and environmental and public health risks associated with industrialised livestock production. China will have to cope with such challenges through proper policy and technological interventions to sustain the livestock development and simultaneously secure the natural resources and environmental health.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Quarantine Station Performance: A Case Study of the Importation of Equine Infectious Anemia Virus-Infected Horses into California

1998 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim E. Carpenter ◽  
Michael D. McBride ◽  
David W. Hird
Keyword(s):  
Equine Infectious Anemia Virus ◽  
Computer Simulation Model ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Quarantine Station ◽  
Equine Infectious Anemia ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Anemia Virus ◽  
Importation Risk

We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.

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