A Temporal Analysis of Quarterly Earnings Thresholds: Propensities and Valuation Consequences

2005 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 423-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence D. Brown ◽  
Marcus L. Caylor
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Analyst Forecasts ◽  
The Other ◽  
Analyst Following ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Economic Rationale ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Accuracy And Precision ◽  
Earnings Surprises

Applying a Burgstahler and Dichev (1997)/Degeorge et al. (1999) type methodology to quarterly data for the 1985–2002 time period, we show that, since the mid-1990s, but not before then, managers seek to avoid negative quarterly earnings surprises more than to avoid either quarterly losses or quarterly earnings decreases. Our findings suggest that the quarterly earnings threshold hierarchy proposed by Degeorge et al. (1999) does not apply to recent years, and that managers' claim that avoiding quarterly earnings decreases is the threshold they most seek to achieve (Graham et al. 2004) is inconsistent with their actions. We provide an intuitively appealing economic rationale for why the shift in threshold hierarchy occurred; since the mid-1990s, but not before then, investors unambiguously rewarded (penalized) firms for reporting quarterly earnings meeting (missing) analysts' estimates more than they did for meeting (missing) the other two thresholds. We provide several explanations for why investors unambiguously reward firms for reporting quarterly earnings that meet or beat analysts' estimates more than for meeting the other two thresholds late (but not early) in our sample period: increased media coverage given to analyst forecasts, more analyst following, more firms covered by analysts, and temporal increases in both the accuracy and precision of analyst forecasts.

The incumbent, challenger, and population during revolution and civil war

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjell Hausken ◽  
Mthuli Ncube
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Public Goods ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
The Other ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Geographic Regions

We consider revolutions and civil war involving an incumbent, a challenger, and the population. Revolutions are classified into eight outcomes. In four outcomes incumbent repression occurs (viewed as providing sub-threshold benefits such as public goods to the population). Accommodation occurs in the other four outcomes (benefits provision above a threshold). The incumbent and challenger fight each other. The incumbent may win and retain power or else lose, thereby causing standoff or coalition. In a standoff, which is costly, no one backs down and uncertainty exists about who is in power. In a coalition, which is less costly, the incumbent and challenger cooperate, compromise, and negotiate their differences. If the population successfully revolts against the incumbent, the challenger replaces the incumbent. Eighty-seven revolutions during 1961–2011, including the recent Arab spring revolutions, are classified into the eight outcomes. When repressive, the incumbent loses 46 revolutions, remains in power through 21 revolutions, and builds a coalition after 12 revolutions. When accommodative, the incumbent loses seven revolutions and builds a coalition after one revolution. The 87 revolutions are classified across geographic regions and by time-period.

scholarly journals Equity Incentives and Earnings Management

2005 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 441-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Cheng ◽  
Terry D. Warfield
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Stock Ownership ◽  
Stock Performance ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Equity Incentives ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Earnings Surprises ◽  
The Future

This paper examines the link between managers' equity incentives—arising from stock-based compensation and stock ownership—and earnings management. We hypothesize that managers with high equity incentives are more likely to sell shares in the future and this motivates these managers to engage in earnings management to increase the value of the shares to be sold. Using stock-based compensation and stock ownership data over the 1993–2000 time period, we document that managers with high equity incentives sell more shares in subsequent periods. As expected, we find that managers with high equity incentives are more likely to report earnings that meet or just beat analysts' forecasts. We also find that managers with consistently high equity incentives are less likely to report large positive earnings surprises. This finding is consistent with the wealth of these managers being more sensitive to future stock performance, which leads to increased reserving of current earnings to avoid future earnings disappointments. Collectively, our results indicate that equity incentives lead to incentives for earnings management.

scholarly journals Deep spatio-temporal emotion analysis of geo-tagged tweets for predicting location based communal emotion during COVID-19 Lock-down

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
M. Amsaprabhaa ◽  
Y. Nancy Jane ◽  
H. Khanna Nehemiah
Keyword(s):  
Latent Dirichlet Allocation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Grid Search ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Emotion Classification ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Improved Accuracy ◽  
State Of Art

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries across the globe has enforced lockdown restrictions that influence the people’s socio-economic lifecycle. The objective of this paper is to predict the communal emotion of people from different locations during the COVID-19 lockdown. The proposed work aims in developing a deep spatio-temporal analysis framework of geo-tagged tweets to predict the emotions of different topics based on location. An optimized Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) approach is presented for finding the optimal hyper-parameters using grid search. A multi-class emotion classification model is then built via a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to predict emotions for each topic based on locations. The proposed work is experimented with the twitter streaming API dataset. The experimental results prove that the presented LDA model-using grid search along with the RNN model for emotion classification outperforms the other state of art methods with an improved accuracy of 94.6%.

A comparative study of qualitative immunochemical screening assays for the combined measurement of T-2/HT-2 in cereals and cereal-based products

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 385-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Meneely ◽  
F. Ricci ◽  
S. Vesco ◽  
M. Abouzied ◽  
M. Sulyok ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sample Preparation ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
The Other ◽  
Accuracy And Precision ◽  
Cost Implications ◽  
Electrochemical Array ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Preparation Techniques ◽  
Speed Of Analysis

Many different immunochemical platforms exist for the screening of naturally occurring contaminants in food from the low cost enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) to the expensive instruments such as optical biosensors based on the phenomenon of surface plasmon resonance (SPR). The primary aim of this study was to evaluate and compare a number of these platforms to assess their accuracy and precision when applied to naturally contaminated samples containing HT-2/T-2 mycotoxins. Other important factors considered were the speed of analysis, ease of use (sample preparation techniques and use of the equipment) and ultimately the cost implications. The three screening procedures compared included an SPR biosensor assay, a commercially available ELISA and an enzymelinked immunomagnetic electrochemical array (ELIME array). The qualitative data for all methods demonstrated very good overall agreements with each other, however on comparison with mass spectrometry confirmatory results, the ELISA and SPR assay performed slightly better than the ELIME array, exhibiting an overall agreement of 95.8% compared to 91.7%. Currently, SPR is more costly than the other two platforms and can only be used in the laboratory whereas in theory both the ELISA and ELIME array are portable and can be used in the field, but ultimately this is dependent on the sample preparation techniques employed. Sample preparative techniques varied for all methods evaluated, the ELISA was the most simple to perform followed by that of the SPR method. The ELIME array involved an additional clean-up step thereby increasing both the time and cost of analysis. Therefore in the current format, field use would not be an option for the ELIME array. In relation to speed of analysis, the ELISA outperformed the other methods.

scholarly journals Contribution to the research of the chemical intensity erosion in the western Serbia

2003 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Slavoljub Dragicevic ◽  
Predrag Manojlovic ◽  
Sanja Mustafic
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Method ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
The Other ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Chemical Erosion ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Erosion Intensity

Based on the research of the chemical erosion intensity in the upper course of Tamnava, the appearance of its negative value has been found. Further researches, that enclose the lower course, confirmed this fact. This research opened the important question about the causes of this phenomena. Analytical method eliminated all expected causes and led to conclusion that the reason for this should be found by using the more precise research of the mineralisation of the precipitations. It was necessary to continue the measurings of the precipitation mineralisation in the greater number of locations and in the wider time period, as well as in the different meteorological conditions, and after that to establish the subordination between the amount of precipitations and the entered TDS. Only after these additive researches we could be able to find out the relation between ''entry'' and ''exit'' and to find out the intensity of the chemical erosion in this, and in the other river basins. For now, we are able only to find out the carrying of TDS, as well as the reduction of the chemical evacuation for the non - carbonated part of the basin (corrected value).

scholarly journals Using Hotspots Algebra to analyze crime events and their urban context

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-26
Author(s):  
Lenin Heredia G. ◽  
Germán E. Bravo C.
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Crime Analysis ◽  
Temporal Context ◽  
Urban Context ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Spatial Factors ◽  
Spatial Influence ◽  
Police Agencies ◽  
The Subject

Hotspots analysis is essential in the criminology field and quite important in decisions making for police agencies because it permits the enhancement of allocation of police resources for timely and adequate actions. There exist different techniques for analysis and generation of hotspots, limited by its difficulty to consider other urban and demographic factors that could be the cause of the emergence of these hotspots or their influence over other factors. On the other hand, it is also difficult and unusual to analyze hotspots in a temporal context. This paper seeks, through spatial-temporal operations based in hotspots, to go beyond of classical crime analysis with hotspots, by looking for the spatial influence of other spatial factors over and analyzing also their relationship in a temporal context. The paper initially presents and analyze the performance of various techniques for hotspot generation and determines that STAC technique from CrimeStat is the more suitable for the proposed objective. Then, it defines a hotspot algebra allowing the combined study of crime and spatial factors affecting it and/or been affected by crime events. Temporal analysis includes the hotspots generation for days of the week and/or months in a year. In this way it is possible to study causality relationships and/or correlations among the studied phenomena and the spatial-temporal environment where crime occurs. Therefore, it is possible to define and apply informed actions, primarily concerning the allocation of police resources. Finally, it shows some application examples, thematic as well as temporal analysis, of hotspot algebra using crime data from Bogota for the years 2011 to 2013; finally, some future works in the subject are proposed.

scholarly journals Divorced and Unemployed: the Declining Association between Two Critical Lifecourse States in the UK, 1984-2017

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lewis Robert Anderson ◽  
Christiaan Willem Simon Monden ◽  
Erzsebet Bukodi
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
Educational Inequality ◽  
Marital Dissolution ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Domains Of Life ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Uk

Individuals exposed to both job loss and marital dissolution are likely to be highly disadvantaged, having experienced stresses and losses in the two primary domains of life. Moreover, recent literature finds that exposure to one event tends to increase risk of the other. However, next to nothing is known about the size or composition – or changes therein – of the divorced/separated and unemployed (DSU) subpopulation. Using large, nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional datasets extending back to 1984, we aim to fill this gap for the UK. We give a descriptive account of the prevalence and social distribution of DSU, and of the cross-sectional association between its two component states: among which groups, by education and gender, does being either divorced/separated or unemployed most strongly imply a heightened risk of also being the other, and how has this changed over time? We find stable and strong educational inequality in DSU, while the gender gap has narrowed and recently closed. The association between the two states is stronger among men; has weakened strikingly over the time period we consider, for both men and, especially, women; and is educationally stratified among men but not women. Contrary to expectations, higher-educated men in one of the two states are most likely to also be in the other. Possible explanations and further questions are discussed. In particular, we highlight the possibility that over this time period the divorced/separated have become more like the general population, rather than a negatively selected subgroup among whom unemployment is a particular risk.

scholarly journals Beyond the “Conflict” Paradigm

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 90-101
Author(s):  
Aziz Douai
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Culture Media ◽  
The Other ◽  
Western World ◽  
Clash Of Civilizations ◽  
The West ◽  
Mainstream Media ◽  
Power Game ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Zero Sum

Western-Muslim relations have experienced long periods of peaceful coexistence,fruitful co-operation, and close interactions that have enriched both civilizations.And yet an alien observer of our mainstream media could be forgivenfor concluding that “Islam” and the “West” can never co-exist in peace becausethey seem to have nothing in common. In fact, the intermittent violence interruptingthese long peaceful interactions – from the Crusades to the “War onTerror” – has constituted the core of most mainstream media coverage and“scholarship” purporting to “study” and “explain” these relations.In a zero-sum power game, these dominant frameworks emphasize thatsuch a “clash” is inevitable. Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations”theory has become the best known articulation and deployment of “conflict”as an “explanatory” framework for understanding current and past Muslim-West interactions. Simply put, existential, cultural, and religious chasmshave put the Muslim world on a collision course with the western world, aproblem that is most exacerbated by the presence of “Islam” and Muslimcommunities in western societies (Huntington, 1993).1 His thesis appearsto ignore each civilization’s internal diversity and pluralism and to be willfullyoblivious to the inter- and intra-civilizational interactions and centuriesoldco-existence, as Edward Said argued in his rebuttal: “Clash of Ignorance”(2001).  Beyond the broadest generalizations, after all, what do “Islam” and the“West” mean? How long can we afford to “ignore” the “porousness” and “ambiguity”of their geographical and cultural borders? Is “conflict” between thesetwo realms inevitable? How about the centuries-old dialogue between thesecivilizations, the “Self” and the “Other”? How can researchers and intellectualsdeploy their inter-disciplinary insights and scholarship to address both thereal and the perceived civilizational “chasms”?These questions constitute the overarching themes of some very importantscholarship published in three recent books: Engaging the Other: Public Policyand Western-Muslim Intersections, edited by Karim H. Karim and MahmoudEid; Re-Imagining the Other: Culture, Media, and Western-Muslim Intersections,edited by Mahmoud Eid and Karim H. Karim; and the Routledge Handbookof Islam in the West, edited by Roberto Tottoli. With rich methodologicalapproaches, broad theoretical lenses, and diverse topics, these three books offera unique platform to build both a holistic and nuanced understanding of thecontingencies and intricacies surrounding “Islam” and the “West.” ...

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