scholarly journals SEISMIC HAZARD OF GANJA CITY

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
З.Г. Аллахвердиева
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Empirical Formula ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Seismic Effect ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Focal Points ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Industrial Center

Изучение сейсмического риска города Гянджа на наш взгляд имеет большое значение, так как этот город является вторым промышленным центром республики. Для имеющихся очагов сильных землетря- сений в районе г. Гянджи на основе магнитуды вероятного максимально сильного землетрясения по эмпирической формуле М. В. Шебалина для разных глубин и расстояний был вычислен сейсмический эффект. Результаты показывают, что очаги, расположенные на районе Гек-гель и Зурнабад с сейсмической точки зрения наиболее опасные. Вероятность создания опасного сейсмического эффекта от Дашкесанских, Ге- дебекских и Келбаджарских очагов мала Investigation of seismic risk of Ganja city in our opinion is of a great importance, since this city is the second industrial center of the country. The seismic effect was calculated for existing sources of strong earthquakes in the area of Ganja city -based on the magnitude of probable maximum strong earthquake using the empirical formula of M. V. Shebalin for various depths and distances. The results show that focal points located in the areas Gek-gel and Zurnabad are most hazardous from seismic point of view. Probability of hazardous seismic effect occurrence from Dashkesan, Gedebeksk, Kelbadzhar focal points is small

scholarly journals Active faults of the Kerch’s Peninsula: new results

2019 ◽  
Vol 488 (4) ◽  
pp. 408-412
Author(s):  
А. N. Ovsyuchenko ◽  
R. N. Vakarchuk ◽  
A. M. Korzhenkov ◽  
A. S. Larkov ◽  
А. I. Sysolin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Active Fault ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Fault Zones ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Kerch Peninsula ◽  
Seismotectonic Model

In the paper there are results of a recent study of the active faults in the Kerch Peninsula. There was compiled a Map of Active Faults - sources of the strong earthquakes occurred in Late Holocene. The map is a regional seismotectonic model of strong earthquake sources - detailed basis for a spatial prognosis of the seismic hazard. Results of the study show that the Kerch Peninsula demonstrates signs of the classical morphostructures, and a morphology of the modern peninsula contours is caused by the large active fault zones.

System-analytical method of strong earthquake-prone areas recognition

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Dzeboev ◽  
Alexei Gvishiani ◽  
Boris Dzeranov
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Weak Earthquakes ◽  
High Seismicity

<p>Proper seismic hazard assessment is the most important scientific problem of seismology, and geophysics in general. With the development of the world economy, the importance of the problem grows and acquires global significance.</p><p>Strong earthquakes (M ≥ M<sub>0</sub>, M<sub>0</sub> is the magnitude threshold starting from which earthquakes in the studied region are considered strong), as a rule, do not occur over the entire territory of the seismic region. Accordingly, the recognition of areas prone to future strong earthquakes is an urgent fundamental direction in research on the assessment of seismic hazard. Identification of potentially high seismicity zones in seismically active regions is important from both theoretical, and practical points of view. The currently available methods for recognition of high seismicity zones do not allow repeatedly correcting their results over time due to the invariability of the used set of recognition objects. In this work, a new system-analytical approach FCAZ (Formalized Clustering And Zoning) to the problem has been created. It uses the epicenters of rather weak earthquakes (M ≥ M<sub>R</sub>, M<sub>R</sub> is a certain magnitude threshold of weak earthquakes) as objects of recognition. This makes it possible to develop the recognition result of zones with increased seismic hazard after the appearance of new earthquake epicenters. The latter makes FCAZ a method of systems analysis.</p><p>The system-analytical method for analyzing geophysical data developed by the authors has led to the successful recognition of areas prone to the strongest, strong, and most significant earthquakes on the continents of North, and South America, Eurasia, and in the subduction zones of the Pacific Rim. At the same time, in particular, for the classical approach of strong earthquake-prone areas recognition EPA (Earthquake-Prone Areas), a new paradigm for recognition of high seismicity disjunctive nodes, and lineament intersections with training by one “reliable” class was created in the work.</p><p>In the regions studied in this work, FCAZ zones occupy a relatively small area compared to the field of general seismicity – 30% – 40% of the area of all seismicity, and 50% – 65% of the area where earthquakes with M ≥ M<sub>R</sub> occur. This illustrates the spatial nontriviality of the FCAZ results obtained in this work. The results of the work also show that weak seismicity can actually “manifest” the properties of geophysical fields, which in the classical EPA approach are used directly as characteristics of recognition objects (disjunctive nodes or intersections of the axes of morphostructural lineaments).</p><p>The reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 20-35-70054 «Systems approach to recognition algorithms for seismic hazard assessment».</p>

scholarly journals Temporal variation of seismic parameters in the western part of the India-Eurasia plate collision zone

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Baskoutas ◽  
George Popandopoulos ◽  
Prasanta Chingtham
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Origin Time ◽  
Seismic Parameters ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
North West

We examined the temporal seismicity variation in the north-west Himalayas and the adjacent regions in relation to strong earthquake occurrences in the period 1970-2010. The aim was to promote seismic hazard assessment and to show the possibilities of strong earthquake forecasting by means of the FastBEE computer tool. The temporal variation of the seismicity is expressed in terms of three basic seismic parameters: the logarithm of the number of earthquakes logN, the seismic energy released in the mode logE2/3 and the b-value of the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Significant changes to relative mean values, forming consecutive relative minima and maxima, of the obtained temporal variation series of the seismicity parameters can be considered anomalies. These anomalies were investigated before strong (magnitude Mw≥5.6.) earthquake occurrences and were successfully correlated with 12 strong earthquakes. The mean time of the duration of the anomalies before the origin time of the impending earthquake were estimated to be equal to 3.3±1.3 years. We conclude that, in the region under study, the established correlations can be useful for the intermediate-term forecasting of strong earthquakes and that the continuous monitoring of the temporal evolution of seismicity by means of the FastBEE tool can contribute to the evaluation of the seismic hazard status in a target area. The available earthquake data and the results obtained indicate that after the beginning of 2006, the temporal variation of the seismicity does not present clear prognostic anomalies. This behavior is compatible with the absence of earthquakes with a magnitude of Mw 6.0 or more in the area examined.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard on the territory of Armenia: seismic zoning normative maps. Preliminary version of the new general seismic zoning map

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
В.Г. Григорян ◽  
Дж.К. Карапетян ◽  
К.С. Казарян ◽  
Р.С. Саргсян
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Effect ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Seismic Zoning ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Preliminary Version ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Displacement Speed ◽  
The Impact

В статье рассматриваются вопросы, связанные с общим сейсмическим районированием (ОСР) территории Армении, а также хронология создания карт ОСР. Показана некоторая противоречивость составленных в разные периоды нормативных карт. Разработаны и внедрены национальные нормы по сейсмостойкому строительству – СНРА II-2.02.94, в которых, помимо традиционных баллов, опасность выражалась через ожидаемые максимальные значения ускорений грунтов Аmax. На основе существующих в настоящее время новых методов и технологий по оценке и картированию сейсмической опасности (сейсмического районирования) предлагается вариант вероятностной карты общего сейсмического районирования территории Армении в масштабе 1:500 000. Карта составлена на базе моделей возможных очаговых зон с оценками сейсмических потенциалов (Mmax) основных структурных элементов и сейсмического эффекта. Предложенный вариант карты СМР территории Армении существенно отличается от действующей нормативной карты. На ней впервые выделена зона с ожидаемыми максимальными значениями ускорения грунта – 0,5 g. Задача дальнейших исследований состоит в рассмотрении более сложных моделей пространственно-временного распределения очагов сильных землетрясений, более объективных и приемлемых с инженерной точки зрения количественных характеристик, определяющих характер и уровень ожидаемых воздействий и методов их картирования. Так, в рамках общей научной программы по оценке сейсмической опасности и сейсмического риска, усовершенствования методов количественной оценки параметров сейсмических воздействий в ИГИС НАН РА ведутся исследования по рассмотрению задач с использованием, кроме традиционных (смещение, скорость, ускорение), также интегральных параметров колебаний, наиболее полно характеризующих энергию воздействия In the article we made a chronological and detailed comparative analysis of general seismic zoning (GSZ) maps compiled in different periods for the territory of Armenia. Based on the developed and improved methods for assessing the parameters of seismic influences and using modern methods and technologies for assessment and mapping of seismic hazard (zoning), a probabilistic map of seismic zoning for the territory of Armenia at a scale of 1: 500,000 was compiled. The map is based on the models of possible seismic sources with estimates of seismic potentials (Mmax) of the basic structural elements (compiled by the staff of the IGES NAS RA) and the seismic effect. The proposed version of the GSZ map of the territory of Armenia differs significantly from the current normative map. A zone with the expected maximum values of ground acceleration – 0.5g is allocated on it for the first time. The task of further research is to consider more complex models of the space-time distribution of strong earthquake sources, more objective and acceptable (from an engineering point of view) quantitative characteristics that determine the nature and level of expected impacts and methods of their mapping. Thus, within the framework of the general scientific program for the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk, the improvement of methods for quantifying the parameters of seismic effects in the IGES NAS RA, research is being conducted to consider problems using, besides traditional (displacement, speed, acceleration), also integral parameters of vibrations, the most fully characterizing the impact energy.

Strong earthquake activity influenced by solar flare intensity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Duma
Keyword(s):  
Solar Flares ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Seasonal Effect ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
International Service ◽  
Earthquake Frequency ◽  
Magnetic Index ◽  
Magnetic Disturbances

<p>Based on the comprehensive earthquake catalogue USGS ( HYPERLINK<span>  </span>https://earthquake.usgs.gov) the paper demonstrates that strong earthquake activity, seismic events with M≥6, exhibits a seasonal trend. This feature is the result of<span>  </span>analyses of earthquake data for the N- and S- Earth Hemisphere in period 2010-2019. It can be shown also for single earthquake prone regions as well, like Japan, Eurasia, S-America.</p><p>Any seasonal effect suggests an external influence. In that regard, one can think also of a solar-terrestrial effect, that is suggested already in several studies (e.g<span>  </span>M.Tavares, A.Azevedo, 2011; D.A.E. Vares, M.A.Persinger,2014; G.Duma, 2019). This assumption leads to the question: Which dynamic process can cause a trigger effect for strong earthquakes in the Earth's lithosphere.</p><p>In this study the intensity of solar flares and the resulting radiation, the solar wind, towards the Earth was taken into account. An appropriate parameter which has been regularity measured and reported for many decades and which reflects the intensity of solar radiation is the magnetic index Kp. It is measured at numerous geomagnetic observatories and describes the magnetic disturbances in nT within 3 hour intervals, respectively. Averages of all the measured 3-hour values are then published as Kp, therefore considered a planetary parameter (International Service of Geomagnetic Indices ISGI,France).</p><p>The temporal variations of strong earthquake activity over 10 years and their energy release was compared with the above mentioned index Kp. Actually, a distinct correlation between the two quantities, Kp and earthquake frequency, resulted in cases of different regions as well as globally. Another essential result of the study is that maxima of Kp preceed those of earthquake activity by about 60 to 80 days in most cases. The mechanism has not yet been modeled satisfactorily.</p>

scholarly journals Strong earthquakes can be predicted: a multidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 703-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Z. Li ◽  
Z. Q. Bai ◽  
W. S. Chen ◽  
Y. Q. Xia ◽  
Y. R. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Abnormal Behavior ◽  
Frequency Range ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Innovative Methods ◽  
The World ◽  
Infrasonic Wave

Abstract. The imminent prediction on a group of strong earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang, China in April 1997 is introduced in detail. The prediction was made on the basis of comprehensive analyses on the results obtained by multiple innovative methods including measurements of crustal stress, observation of infrasonic wave in an ultra low frequency range, and recording of abnormal behavior of certain animals. Other successful examples of prediction are also enumerated. The statistics shows that above 40% of 20 total predictions jointly presented by J. Z. Li, Z. Q. Ren and others since 1995 can be regarded as effective. With the above methods, precursors of almost every strong earthquake around the world that occurred in recent years were recorded in our laboratory. However, the physical mechanisms of the observed precursors are yet impossible to explain at this stage.

scholarly journals Identification of Precursory Anomalies before Moderate-strong Earthquakes in Junction of Shanxi-Hebei-Inner Mongolia Area

2020 ◽  
Vol 206 ◽  
pp. 01011
Author(s):  
Li Hong
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Inner Mongolia ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Spectrum Method ◽  
Prediction Efficiency

In this paper, we take the Junction of Shanxi-Hebei-Inner Mongolia area as study region using earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum method (ECRS method) to identify comprehensive precursory anomalies before moderate-strong earthquake. On base of single-parameter relevancy spectrum database with target earthquake magnitude as Ms4.7 and initial earthquake magnitude as Ms1, we carry on multi-parameter analysis and find that result with time interval of 9 months and anomaly threshold with 0.40 times standard deviation has better prediction efficiency. Its anomaly corresponding rate and earthquake corresponding rate are 6/10 and 9/9 respectively.

scholarly journals State of the art of seismic risk and loss assessment in structures

2021 ◽  
Vol 331 ◽  
pp. 07013
Author(s):  
Riza Aryanti ◽  
Masrilayanti Masrilayanti
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Stable Region ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Sunda Shelf ◽  
Human Safety ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Literature Reviews ◽  
History Of ◽  
Seismic Disaster

Earthquakes are known as one of the disasters that have fatal consequences for human safety. However, inevitably, the earthquake itself is not the leading cause of the losses suffered by humans, both material and soul. The most powerful thing in human safety is infrastructure such as buildings, bridges, and houses. Therefore, an in-depth analysis of the risk factors that the infrastructure will experience in a natural disaster is needed. There is a variable seismic hazard in the Southeast Asia region, ranging from high seismic hazard allied with the underneath of the Indonesian and Philippine archipelagos to moderate and low seismic tremors associated with a sizeable stable region on the Sunda Shelf. This paper describes the history of seismic risk and loss assessment of infrastructures. The method used is by doing literature reviews of the most recent research relating to seismic risk and assessment around the world. More than fifteen research results are studied and discussed to get a deep knowledge about seismic risk and the assessment of loss due to seismic disaster.

Strong earthquake increases seismic hazard in Qinghai, China

Temblor ◽  
2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhigang Peng ◽  
Jing Liu-Zeng ◽  
Yangfan Deng ◽  
Shinji Toda
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Strong Earthquake
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