scholarly journals Identification of Precursory Anomalies before Moderate-strong Earthquakes in Junction of Shanxi-Hebei-Inner Mongolia Area

2020 ◽  
Vol 206 ◽  
pp. 01011
Author(s):  
Li Hong
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Inner Mongolia ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Spectrum Method ◽  
Prediction Efficiency

In this paper, we take the Junction of Shanxi-Hebei-Inner Mongolia area as study region using earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum method (ECRS method) to identify comprehensive precursory anomalies before moderate-strong earthquake. On base of single-parameter relevancy spectrum database with target earthquake magnitude as Ms4.7 and initial earthquake magnitude as Ms1, we carry on multi-parameter analysis and find that result with time interval of 9 months and anomaly threshold with 0.40 times standard deviation has better prediction efficiency. Its anomaly corresponding rate and earthquake corresponding rate are 6/10 and 9/9 respectively.

scholarly journals Earthquake-triggered landslides in southwest China

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 351-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. L. Chen ◽  
Q. Zhou ◽  
H. Ran ◽  
R. Dong
Keyword(s):  
Southwest China ◽  
Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Landslide Hazards ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Southeastern Margin ◽  
Fault Belt ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Southwest China is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and it is a region of high seismic activity. Historically, strong earthquakes that occurred here usually generated lots of landslides and brought destructive damages. This paper introduces several earthquake-triggered landslide events in this region and describes their characteristics. Also, the historical data of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater, having occurred in this region, is collected and the relationship between the affected area of landslides and earthquake magnitude is analysed. Based on the study, it can be concluded that strong earthquakes, steep topography as well as fragile geological environment, are the main reasons responsible for serious landslides in southwest China. At the same time, it is found that the relationship between the area affected by landslides and the earthquake magnitude in this region are consistent with what has been obtained worldwide. Moreover, in this paper, it is seen that the size of the areas affected by landslides change enormously even under the same earthquake magnitude in the study region. While at the same tectonic place or fault belt, areas affected by landslides presented similar outline and size. This means that local geological conditions and historical earthquake background have an important influence on landslides distribution, and they should be considered when assessing earthquake-triggered landslide hazards at Grade 1 according to ISSMGE.

Strong earthquake activity influenced by solar flare intensity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Duma
Keyword(s):  
Solar Flares ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Seasonal Effect ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
International Service ◽  
Earthquake Frequency ◽  
Magnetic Index ◽  
Magnetic Disturbances

<p>Based on the comprehensive earthquake catalogue USGS ( HYPERLINK<span>  </span>https://earthquake.usgs.gov) the paper demonstrates that strong earthquake activity, seismic events with M≥6, exhibits a seasonal trend. This feature is the result of<span>  </span>analyses of earthquake data for the N- and S- Earth Hemisphere in period 2010-2019. It can be shown also for single earthquake prone regions as well, like Japan, Eurasia, S-America.</p><p>Any seasonal effect suggests an external influence. In that regard, one can think also of a solar-terrestrial effect, that is suggested already in several studies (e.g<span>  </span>M.Tavares, A.Azevedo, 2011; D.A.E. Vares, M.A.Persinger,2014; G.Duma, 2019). This assumption leads to the question: Which dynamic process can cause a trigger effect for strong earthquakes in the Earth's lithosphere.</p><p>In this study the intensity of solar flares and the resulting radiation, the solar wind, towards the Earth was taken into account. An appropriate parameter which has been regularity measured and reported for many decades and which reflects the intensity of solar radiation is the magnetic index Kp. It is measured at numerous geomagnetic observatories and describes the magnetic disturbances in nT within 3 hour intervals, respectively. Averages of all the measured 3-hour values are then published as Kp, therefore considered a planetary parameter (International Service of Geomagnetic Indices ISGI,France).</p><p>The temporal variations of strong earthquake activity over 10 years and their energy release was compared with the above mentioned index Kp. Actually, a distinct correlation between the two quantities, Kp and earthquake frequency, resulted in cases of different regions as well as globally. Another essential result of the study is that maxima of Kp preceed those of earthquake activity by about 60 to 80 days in most cases. The mechanism has not yet been modeled satisfactorily.</p>

scholarly journals Strong earthquakes can be predicted: a multidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 703-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Z. Li ◽  
Z. Q. Bai ◽  
W. S. Chen ◽  
Y. Q. Xia ◽  
Y. R. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Abnormal Behavior ◽  
Frequency Range ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Innovative Methods ◽  
The World ◽  
Infrasonic Wave

Abstract. The imminent prediction on a group of strong earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang, China in April 1997 is introduced in detail. The prediction was made on the basis of comprehensive analyses on the results obtained by multiple innovative methods including measurements of crustal stress, observation of infrasonic wave in an ultra low frequency range, and recording of abnormal behavior of certain animals. Other successful examples of prediction are also enumerated. The statistics shows that above 40% of 20 total predictions jointly presented by J. Z. Li, Z. Q. Ren and others since 1995 can be regarded as effective. With the above methods, precursors of almost every strong earthquake around the world that occurred in recent years were recorded in our laboratory. However, the physical mechanisms of the observed precursors are yet impossible to explain at this stage.

scholarly journals The value of the post-captopril aldosterone/renin ratio for the diagnosis of primary aldosteronism and the influential factors: A meta-analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 147032032097203
Author(s):  
Qiao Xiang ◽  
Wen Wang ◽  
Tao Chen ◽  
Kai Yu ◽  
Qianrui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Primary Aldosteronism ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Challenge Test ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Subgroup Analyses ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Meta Regression

Objective: The procedure for the captopril challenge test (CCT) in diagnosing primary aldosteronism (PA) is not standardized. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the controversial diagnostic value and influential factors of the post-captopril aldosterone/renin ratio (ARR). Methods: We searched literature in databases for eligible studies (until October 1, 2020). We extracted information regarding study and patient characteristics, CCT methods, outcome data. We pooled studies using the random-effect model. We performed meta-regression and six pre-specified subgroup analyses to explore heterogeneity. Results: Nineteen studies involving 4568 subjects were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.825 (95% CI 0.804–0.844) and 0.919 (95% CI 0.908–0.928). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.9487 (95% CI 0.9207–0.9767). Meta-regression revealed that heterogeneity might derive from time interval ( p = 0.0117) and study population ( p = 0.0033). Subgroup analyses showed significant differences between the subgroups stratified by the dose, posture, study region, time interval, cut-off value and study population for sensitivity and/or specificity ( p < 0.05). Conclusion: Post-captopril ARR is comparably valuable for diagnosing PA at cut-offs from 12.0 to 50.0. Conducting the CCT in the supine position with 25 mg of captopril may attain greater sensitivity. Conducting the CCT in the seated position with 50 mg of captopril may attain greater specificity. A 90-min time interval may perform best in both the sensitivity and specificity.

The MLg(F) Magnitude Scale: A Proposal for its use for Northeastern North America

1994 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Ebel
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
North America ◽  
Magnitude Scale ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Northeastern North America ◽  
Spatial Attenuation ◽  
Magnitude Estimates

Abstract The mLg(f) magnitude scale of Herrmann and Kijko (1983b), computed with appropriate Lg spatial attenuation functions and calibrated to mb, is proposed for routine use in northeastern North America. The Herrmann and Kijko (1983b) formula yields consistent magnitudes for different forms of Lg attenuation, and it shows little or no distance or period dependence for a data set of ten earthquakes from the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. The standard deviation of the mLg(f) magnitude estimates relative to mb is about .32 magnitude units. Also, since on average mbLg=mb for the ten earthquakes in the data set, the mLg(f) formula proposed here is also calibrated to mbLg in the study region.

scholarly journals Calibration and field testing of cavity ring-down laser spectrometers measuring CH<sub>4</sub>, CO<sub>2</sub>, and <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>CH<sub>4</sub> deployed on towers in the Marcellus Shale region

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1273-1295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natasha L. Miles ◽  
Douglas K. Martins ◽  
Scott J. Richardson ◽  
Christopher W. Rella ◽  
Caleb Arata ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Mole Fraction ◽  
Isotopic Ratio ◽  
Marcellus Shale ◽  
Isotopic Ratios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Cavity Ring Down

Abstract. Four in situ cavity ring-down spectrometers (G2132-i, Picarro, Inc.) measuring methane dry mole fraction (CH4), carbon dioxide dry mole fraction (CO2), and the isotopic ratio of methane (δ13CH4) were deployed at four towers in the Marcellus Shale natural gas extraction region of Pennsylvania. In this paper, we describe laboratory and field calibration of the analyzers for tower-based applications and characterize their performance in the field for the period January–December 2016. Prior to deployment, each analyzer was tested using bottles with various isotopic ratios, from biogenic to thermogenic source values, which were diluted to varying degrees in zero air, and an initial calibration was performed. Furthermore, at each tower location, three field tanks were employed, from ambient to high mole fractions, with various isotopic ratios. Two of these tanks were used to adjust the calibration of the analyzers on a daily basis. We also corrected for the cross-interference from ethane on the isotopic ratio of methane. Using an independent field tank for evaluation, the standard deviation of 4 h means of the isotopic ratio of methane difference from the known value was found to be 0.26 ‰ δ13CH4. Following improvements in the field tank testing scheme, the standard deviation of 4 h means was 0.11 ‰, well within the target compatibility of 0.2 ‰. Round-robin style testing using tanks with near-ambient isotopic ratios indicated mean errors of −0.14 to 0.03 ‰ for each of the analyzers. Flask to in situ comparisons showed mean differences over the year of 0.02 and 0.08 ‰, for the east and south towers, respectively. Regional sources in this region were difficult to differentiate from strong perturbations in the background. During the afternoon hours, the median differences of the isotopic ratio measured at three of the towers, compared to the background tower, were &amp;minus0.15 to 0.12 ‰ with standard deviations of the 10 min isotopic ratio differences of 0.8 ‰. In terms of source attribution, analyzer compatibility of 0.2 ‰ δ13CH4 affords the ability to distinguish a 50 ppb CH4 peak from a biogenic source (at −60 ‰, for example) from one originating from a thermogenic source (−35 ‰), with the exact value dependent upon the source isotopic ratios. Using a Keeling plot approach for the non-afternoon data at a tower in the center of the study region, we determined the source isotopic signature to be −31.2 ± 1.9 ‰, within the wide range of values consistent with a deep-layer Marcellus natural gas source.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Methods for Seismic Hazards Forecast

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeri G. Gitis ◽  
Alexander B. Derendyaev
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Training Sample ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Minimum Area ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Spatio Temporal

In this paper, we suggest two machine learning methods for seismic hazard forecast. The first method is used for spatial forecasting of maximum possible earthquake magnitudes ( M m a x ), whereas the second is used for spatio-temporal forecasting of strong earthquakes. The first method, the method of approximation of interval expert estimates, is based on a regression approach in which values of M m a x at the points of the training sample are estimated by experts. The method allows one to formalize the knowledge of experts, to find the dependence of M m a x on the properties of the geological environment, and to construct a map of the spatial forecast. The second method, the method of minimum area of alarm, uses retrospective data to identify the alarm area in which the epicenters of strong (target) earthquakes are expected at a certain time interval. This method is the basis of an automatic web-based platform that systematically forecasts target earthquakes. The results of testing the approach to earthquake prediction in the Mediterranean and Californian regions are presented. For the tests, well known parameters of earthquake catalogs were used. The method showed a satisfactory forecast quality.

The caesium resonator as a standard of frequency and time

1957 ◽  
Vol 250 (973) ◽  
pp. 45-69 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Transition Region ◽  
Central Line ◽  
International Committee ◽  
Geometrical Parameters ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Atomic Unit ◽  
Exciting Field ◽  
Weights And Measures ◽  
Astronomical Time

The construction, operation, and testing of the standard are described. The resonance employed is that due to the hyperfine splitting of caesium, having a frequency of approximately 9192 Mc/s. The transitions between the two atomic states F, m f (4,0) and F, m F (3, 0) are detected in an atomic-beam chamber, in which the length of the transition region is 47 cm, giving a width of resonance, at half deflexion, of 350 cycles, and a standard deviation of setting to the peak of the resonance of ± l c/s . It is shown that the geometrical parameters of the beam chamber such as slit widths, alinement of the beam, and shape of the pole-pieces of the deflecting magnets are relatively unimportant, and that other parameters, including the pressure in the beam chamber, the temperature of the oven, from which the caesium atoms are evaporated, and the radio-frequency power exciting the transitions can be varied throughout wide limits without causing changes in resonant frequency exceeding 1 part in 10 10 . A unidirectional magnetic field is applied over the transition region to remove the field-dependent resonant lines of the Zeeman pattern from the central line which depends on the field to only a second-order extent. It has been found that a satisfactory resonance is obtained with a field as low as 0.05 Oe at which the total effect of the field on the frequency is only 1 c/s. The dependence of the frequency on the phase conditions in the two-cavity resonators carrying the exciting field is studied, and it is concluded that the phases can be made sufficiently close to enable the frequency to be defined with a precision of ± 1 part in 10 10 . The resonator is used as a passive instrument to calibrate the quartz clocks, usually at intervals of a few days; and it is estimated that the clocks calibrated in this way provide at all times the atomic unit of frequency and time interval with a standard deviation of ± 2 parts in 10 10 . The quartz clocks are also calibrated in terms of astronomical time and the results are compared for the period from June 1955 to June 1956. For operational purposes the frequency of the resonance was taken as 9 192 631 830 c/s which was the value obtained in terms of the unit of uniform astronomical time made available by the Royal Greenwich Observatory in June 1955. The value is being determined in terms of the second of ephemeris time, which has now been adopted by the International Committee of Weights and Measures as the unit of time, but to obtain the accuracy required the comparison must be extended over a long interval in view of the difficulties associated with the astronomical measurements.

scholarly journals A project of creating atlas aftershocks of strong earthquakes

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-84
Author(s):  
A. V. Guglielmi ◽  
A. D. Zavyalov ◽  
O. D. Zotov
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Problem ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Problem Solution ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Omori Law ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Interesting Possibility ◽  
Source Physics

The Omori Law, which describes the repeated underground shocks after a strong earthquake, is written in the form of a nonlinear differential equation. An idea of the focal deactivation coefficient after the main shock is introduced. Two advantages of the new wording of the Omori Law are given. Firstly, there is an interesting possibility to naturally take into account exogenous and endogenous triggers affecting the earthquake source. Endogenous triggers in the form of round-the-world seismic echo and free oscillations of the Earth, excited by the main shock, are especially noted. The second advantage is that the differential aftershock equation makes it possible to put the reverse problem of the earthquake source physics. The essence of the inverse problem is to determine the deactivation coefficient from the data on the observed aftershock frequency. Examples of inverse problem solution are given. The project of creation of the Atlas of aftershocks on the basis of the solution of the inverse problem of the source, cooling down after a strong earthquake is offered.

scholarly journals Changes of the tropical glaciers throughout Peru between 2000 and 2016 – Mass balance and area fluctuations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thorsten Seehaus ◽  
Philipp Malz ◽  
Christian Sommer ◽  
Stefan Lippl ◽  
Alejo Cochachin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Landsat Imagery ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Temporal Region ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Tropical Glaciers ◽  
Glacier Changes

Abstract. Glaciers in tropical regions are very sensitive to climatic variations and thus strongly affected by climate change. The majority of the tropical glaciers worldwide are located in the Peruvian Andes, which have shown significant ice loss in the last century. Here, we present the first multi-temporal, region wide survey of geodetic mass balances and glacier area fluctuations throughout Peru covering the period 2000–2016. Glacier extents are derived from Landsat imagery by performing automatic glacier delineation based on a combination of the NDSI and band ratio method and final manual inspection and correction. A total glacier area loss of −548.5 ± 65.7 km2 (−29 %, −34.3 km2 a−1) is obtained for the study period. Using interferometric satellite SAR acquisitions, bi-temporal geodetic mass balances are derived. An average specific mass balance of −357 ± 43 kg m−2 a−1 is found throughout Peru for the period 2000–2016. However, there are strong regional and temporal differences in the mass budgets ranging from 68 ± 102 kg m−2 a−1 to −990 ± 476 kg m−2 a−1. The ice loss increased towards the end of the observation period. Between 2013 and 2016, a retreat of the glaciated area of −203.8 ± 65.7 km2 (− 16 %, −101.9 km2 a−1) is mapped and the average mass budget amounts to −836 ± 188 kg m−2 a−1. The glacier changes revealed can be attributed to changes in the climatic settings in the study region, derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the Oceanic Niño Index. The intense El Niño activities in 2015/16 are most likely the trigger for the increased change rates in the time interval 2013–2016. Our observations provide fundamental information on the current dramatic glacier changes for local authorities and for the calibration and validation of glacier change projections.

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