scholarly journals Phenological phenomena in the life of plants in Zhiguli Nature Reserve in the changing climate (using the example of Laser trilobum and Euphorbia zhiguliensis)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Darya S. Kiseleva

Phenological processes of two rare species, Laser trilobum and Euphorbia zhiguliensis, in Zhiguli Reserve, and their changes associated with climate change during more than 38 years of observations are discussed. Long-term weather condition phenorhythms in the reserve were summarized, and the behavior of the plants in the changing environment was studied..

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anikó Cséplő ◽  
István Geresdi ◽  
Ákos Horváth

<p>The reports about the climate change mostly focus about the trend of the temperature or precipitation. However, the relative humidity is also an important characteristic of the atmosphere, e.g. it impacts both the cloud and fog formation. The trends of the relative humidity in the changing climate have been found to be rather uncertain.  In this research the climatological trend of the relative humidity in the Carpathian Valley was studied. Analysis of the long-term observed database from eight meteorological stations was used to present the annual and seasonal trends of the relative humidity. The annual trend was found to be between 2-3% in every meteorological station. The results show that the relative humidity has decreased every season but in autumn, when the trend of it has not been consistent. While the most significant decrease has been occurred during spring, the decrease was negligible during autumn.</p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 238-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Bezner Kerr ◽  
Hanson Nyantakyi-Frimpong ◽  
Laifolo Dakishoni ◽  
Esther Lupafya ◽  
Lizzie Shumba ◽  
...  

AbstractClimate change is projected to have severe implications for smallholder agriculture in Africa, with increased temperatures, increased drought and flooding occurrence, and increased rainfall variability. Given these projections, there is a need to identify effective strategies to help rural communities adapt to climatic risks. Yet, relatively little research has examined the politics and social dynamics around knowledge and sources of information about climate-change adaptation with smallholder farming communities. This paper uses a political ecology approach to historically situate rural people's experiences with a changing climate. Using the concept of the co-production of knowledge, we examine how Malawian smallholder farmers learn, perceive, share and apply knowledge about a changing climate, and what sources they draw on for agroecological methods in this context. As well, we pay particular attention to agricultural knowledge flows within and between households. We ask two main questions: Whose knowledge counts in relation to climate-change adaptation? What are the political, social and environmental implications of these knowledge dynamics? We draw upon a long-term action research project on climate-change adaptation that involved focus groups, interviews, observations, surveys, and participatory agroecology experiments with 425 farmers. Our findings are consistent with other studies, which found that agricultural knowledge sources were shaped by gender and other social inequalities, with women more reliant on informal networks than men. Farmers initially ranked extension services as important sources of knowledge about farming and climate change. After farmers carried out participatory agroecological research, they ranked their own observation and informal farmer networks as more important sources of knowledge. Contradictory ideas about climate-change adaptation, linked to various positions of power, gaps of knowledge and social inequalities make it challenging for farmers to know how to act despite observing changes in rainfall. Participatory agroecological approaches influenced adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in Malawi, but most still maintained the dominant narrative about climate-change causes, which focused on local deforestation by rural communities. Smallholder farmers in Malawi are responsible for <1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet our results show that the farmers often blame their own rural communities for changes in deforestation and rainfall patterns. Researchers need to consider differences knowledge and power between scientists and farmers and the contradictory narratives at work in communities to foster long-term change.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 241-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sicheng Wan ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Guoqing Wang ◽  
Lu Zhang ◽  
Lei Cheng ◽  
...  

Abstract Investigating long-term streamflow changes pattern and its response to climate and human factors is of crucial significance to understand the hydrological cycle under a changing environment. Caijiazhuang catchment located within Haihe River basin, north China was selected as the study area. To detect the trend and changes in streamflow, Mann–Kendall test was used. Elasticity and hydrological simulation methods were applied to assess the relative contribution of climate change and human activities on streamflow variability under three periods (baseline (1958–1977), impact I (1978–1997), and impact II (1998–2012)). The long-term hydro-climatic variables experienced substantial changes during the whole study period, and 1977 was the breaking year of streamflow change. Attribution analysis using the two methods showed consistent results: for impact I, climate change impacts explained 65% and 68% of streamflow reduction; however for impact II, it only represented 49% and 56% of streamflow reduction. This result indicated that human activities were intensifying over time. Various types of human activities presented significant effects on streamflow regimes including volumes and hydrographs. The findings of this paper could provide better insights of hydrological evolution and would thus assist water managers in sustainably managing and providing water use strategies under a changing environment.


2019 ◽  
pp. 244-249
Author(s):  
Yevgenia Galkina ◽  
Natalia Aleinikova

С целью моделирования будущих сценариев развития милдью и оидиума винограда в условиях изменения климата установлены основные закономерности сезонной и многолетней (1987-2018 гг.) динамики развития данных заболеваний на виноградниках Крыма. Многолетняя динамика милдью в ампелоценозах Юго-западной зоны виноградарства свидетельствует о непрерывности и неравномерности развития болезни по годам с высокой зависимостью (r=0,73-0,8) от количества осадков в период с мая по август. Оидиум на виноградниках Южного берега Крыма развивается непрерывно, относительно постоянно и в средней степени зависит от относительной влажности воздуха в мае (r=0,52). Сезонные динамики эпифитотического процесса милдью определяются гидротермическими условиями и сильно варьируют по годам; для оидиума установлено относительное постоянство данного процесса и смещение начала развития болезни на более ранние сроки, что обусловлено климатическими изменениями.To simulate future scenarios of mildew and oidium progression on vines in a changing climate, major patterns have been established for seasonal and long-term (1987-2018) dynamics of the diseases in the vineyards of Crimea. The multi-year mildew dynamics in the ampelocenoses of the southwestern viticultural zone demonstrate continuity and uneven progression of the disease by years with a high rainfall dependence (r = 0.73-0.8) between May and August. Oidium in the vineyards of the South Coast has been evolving continuously and relatively constantly; it moderately depends on relative air humidity in May (r=0.52). The seasonal dynamics of the epiphytotic mildew process is governed by hydrothermal conditions, and vary greatly by years; for oidium, a relative continuity of the process and a shift in the onset of the disease to earlier periods were established, which is caused by climate change.


2019 ◽  
pp. 45-63
Author(s):  
Krishna AchutaRao ◽  
Friederike Otto

Attribution of observed changes in long-term climate to anthropogenic and other external forcings has been a mainstay of many global assessments. Evidence of the role of anthropogenic forcings in the changing climate over the Indian region has been growing in recent years. Recent developments in event attribution techniques now make it possible to link global warming to individual weather and climate-related events. While a large number of event-attribution studies of extreme events from around the globe exist, very few have been carried out over India. In this chapter, a review of available event-attribution studies as well as studies that address attribution of long-term climate change over India is presented.


Author(s):  
Maria Hällfors ◽  
Juha Pöyry ◽  
Janne Heliölä ◽  
Ilmari Kohonen ◽  
Mikko Kuussaari ◽  
...  

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (47%) -used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends was observed for the minority of species (13%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for Boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 65-72
Author(s):  
V. N. Shmagol' ◽  
V. L. Yarysh ◽  
S. P. Ivanov ◽  
V. I. Maltsev

<p>The long-term population dynamics of the red deer (<em>Cervus elaphus</em> L.) and European roe deer (<em>Capreolus</em> <em>capreolus</em> L.) at the mountain and forest zone of Crimea during 1980-2017 is presented. Fluctuations in numbers of both species are cyclical and partly synchronous. Period of oscillations in the population of red deer is about 25 years, the average duration of the oscillation period of number of roe deer is 12.3 years. During the fluctuations in the number the increasing and fall in population number of the red deer had been as 26-47 %, and roe deer – as 22-34 %. Basing on the dada obtained we have assumed that together with large-scale cycles of fluctuations in population number of both red deer and roe deer the short cycles of fluctuations in the number of these species with period from 3.5 to 7.5 years take place. Significant differences of the parameters of cyclical fluctuations in the number of roe deer at some sites of the Mountainous Crimea: breaches of synchronicity, as well as significant differences in the duration of cycles are revealed. The greatest deviations from the average values of parameters of long-term dynamics of the number of roe deer in Crimea are noted for groups of this species at two protected areas. At the Crimean Nature Reserve the cycle time of fluctuations of the numbers of roe deer was 18 years. At the Karadag Nature Reserve since 1976 we can see an exponential growth in number of roe deer that is continued up to the present time. By 2016 the number of roe deer reached 750 individuals at a density of 437 animals per 1 thousand ha. Peculiarity of dynamics of number of roe deer at some sites proves the existence in the mountain forest of Crimea several relatively isolated groups of deer. We assumed that "island" location of the Crimean populations of red deer and European roe deer, their relatively little number and influence of permanent extreme factors of both natural and anthropogenic origination have contributed to a mechanism of survival of these populations. The elements of such a mechanism include the following features of long-term dynamics of the population: the reduction in the period of cyclic population fluctuations, while maintaining their amplitude and the appearance of additional small cycles, providing more flexible response of the population to the impact of both negative and positive environmental factors. From the totality of the weather conditions for the Crimean population of roe deer the recurring periods of increases and downs in the annual precipitation amount may have relevance. There was a trend of increase in the roe deer population during periods of increasing annual precipitation.</p>


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document