scholarly journals Measuring the Dynamic Risk of Further Offending: A Feasibility Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Hodges ◽  
Kevin Fahey
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

BackgroundYoung people who have offended were, until recently, assessed using the Core ASSET Profile – a tool which determined their likelihood of reoffending based on their criminal history and practitioner scores across 12 domains. The repeated assessments provide a set of data for each individual which can be used to model how their risk of further offending varies over time. Having conducted an initial proof of concept study, this work explores the potential of extending the range of ‘risk’ and ‘protective’ factors using anonymised linked data held within the SAIL Databank. Main AimThe feasibility study is designed to establish the potential for using administrative data to develop a more sensitive assessment tool for use in the youth justice system. Specifically, the study explores the impact of being care experienced and of subsequent system contact in elevating the risk of further offending. ApproachA series of Bayesian hierarchical models will be generated which mimic the features of the Core ASSET Profile under the Scaled Approach. These include a range of time-varying and non-time varying variables matched to the individual, drawn from education, health and social services datasets as well as their court and offending records. ResultsThe anticipated findings will advance our understanding of how the likelihood of further offending varies over time for different groups, and how further system contact increases the risk. This will enable the complexity of young people’s real lives to be explored, and hence appropriate and timely interventions to be developed. ConclusionModelling under a Bayesian framework affords the opportunity to generate robust analysis based on smaller datasets. Findings have significant implications for policy and practice, particularly in the context of assessment processes across the justice system and social welfare.

scholarly journals Effects of Time-Varying Parent Input on Children’s Language Outcomes Differ for Vocabulary and Syntax

2021 ◽  
pp. 095679762097055
Author(s):  
Catriona Silvey ◽  
Özlem Ece Demir-Lira ◽  
Susan Goldin-Meadow ◽  
Stephen W. Raudenbush
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Tests ◽  
Child Outcomes ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Syntactic Complexity ◽  
Language Outcomes ◽  
Optimal Sequence ◽  
Linguistic Input ◽  
Language Input ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Early linguistic input is a powerful predictor of children’s language outcomes. We investigated two novel questions about this relationship: Does the impact of language input vary over time, and does the impact of time-varying language input on child outcomes differ for vocabulary and for syntax? Using methods from epidemiology to account for baseline and time-varying confounding, we predicted 64 children’s outcomes on standardized tests of vocabulary and syntax in kindergarten from their parents’ vocabulary and syntax input when the children were 14 and 30 months old. For vocabulary, children whose parents provided diverse input earlier as well as later in development were predicted to have the highest outcomes. For syntax, children whose parents’ input substantially increased in syntactic complexity over time were predicted to have the highest outcomes. The optimal sequence of parents’ linguistic input for supporting children’s language acquisition thus varies for vocabulary and for syntax.

An End to Incrementalism? The Impact of Expenditure Restraint on Social Services Budgets 1979–1986

1989 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidan Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Social Service ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
The Public ◽  
Total Budget ◽  
Service Departments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTThe theory of incrementalism is a long-standing and influential perspective on policy making and resource allocation in the public sector. Previous research on social services budgeting suggests that resources are allocated incrementally, although there has been some debate as to whether this would persist in an era of prolonged expenditure restraint. Incremental budgetary outcomes are operationalised as percentage changes in budgets pro-rata with percentage changes in the total budget, and as stable shares of total expenditure for each activity. Data for 99 English social service departments supports incrementalism in that budget shares change by only 1.8 per cent, but percentage allocations depart from pro-rata incrementalism by a mean of 74 per cent. The comparison of the two summary indices over time supports those who have argued that prolonged restraint would encourage non-incremental budgeting, but change in the agency's total budget does not consistently predict budgetary outcomes. The effect of restraint on incrementalism varies with the measure used and across the component activities of the measures, but there is enough evidence to suggest a significant decline in the level of incrementalism in social service departments. In particular, non-incremental budgeting is strongly associated with the growth of day centre expenditure on the mentally ill and the elderly before 1982–3, and after that with the pursuit of the ‘community care’ strategy within state provided services for the elderly and children. Incrementalism as a general theory of agency budgeting is limited in its ability to explain variations in the degree of incrementalism between agencies, between component budgets and over time. The conclusion suggests that further research should seek explanations for these variations in the varying balance of the competing forces which shape outcomes in welfare bureaucracies and in the relationship between these forces and the organisation's environment.

The Impact of Victimization, Mental Health Problems, and Disabilities on Juvenile Justice Processing: Does Gender Matter?

2020 ◽  
pp. 001112872095002
Author(s):  
Allison T. Chappell ◽  
Scott R. Maggard
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Juvenile Justice System ◽  
Mental Health Problems ◽  
Delinquent Behavior ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
The Impact

Victimization, mental health problems, and disabilities are associated with an increased likelihood of delinquent behavior, and girls in the juvenile justice system report higher rates of past trauma and victimization, sexual abuse, and mental health issues than boys. However, the influence of these problems on juvenile justice processing remains understudied. This study investigated the impact of victimization, mental health problems, disabilities, and comorbidity on intake and adjudication decisions across gender. Data on 74,636 intake cases were obtained from the centralized database of the juvenile justice office in a mid-Atlantic state (FY 2011–2015). Findings suggest that mental health problems, victimization, and disabilities are associated with increased punitiveness at intake but few consistent gender differences emerged. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.

Prisoners and their children: An innovative model of ‘whole family’ support

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 210-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Clancy ◽  
Mike Maguire
Keyword(s):  
Family Support ◽  
Emotional Stress ◽  
Children And Families ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
The Core ◽  
Family Approach ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Innovative Model ◽  
Core Elements ◽  
The Impact

The article reports key findings from an evaluation of ‘Invisible Walls Wales’ (IWW), a multi-agency ‘through the gate’ project in HMP Parc, South Wales, based on an innovative model of ‘whole family’ support for prisoners, their children and partners. It provides an overview of previous research on the impact of parental imprisonment on children and families, including financial hardship, emotional stress and risks of ‘intergenerational offending’. It outlines the core elements of the IWW model and the substantial infrastructure of family support facilities in the prison on which it was built. It summarises outcomes of the project for fathers, partners and children, and gives examples of how IWW’s ‘whole family’ approach is influencing policy and practice elsewhere. Reoffending rates are not yet available, but are anticipated to be low. However, the key strength of the project, it is argued, lies in its emphasis on the ‘whole family’ as the main beneficiary, rather than focusing narrowly on rehabilitation of the father.

Inverting Risk Assessment: Considering the Lowest Risk Clients in the Federal Criminal Justice System

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 1043-1063
Author(s):  
Matt DeLisi ◽  
Michael Elbert ◽  
Katherine Tahja
Keyword(s):  
Justice System ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Work Group ◽  
Age At Onset ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Minimal Risk ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Alternatives To Incarceration ◽  
Federal Jurisdiction

More than 30% of federal defendants have no prior official criminal history other than their present offense, and despite the low-risk nature of a large group of federal defendants, more than nine out of every 10 serve time in prison. Because of the overincarceration of low-risk defendants, the high cost of incarceration, and other developing evidence, there is growing interest in federal jurisdictions to develop alternatives to incarceration for defendants who pose little risk to public safety. Using pilot data from 1,046 federal pretrial defendants in a federal jurisdiction in the Midwestern United States, the current study developed a low-risk actuarial tool, validated the low-risk actuarial tool on a sample of pretrial candidates from the same federal jurisdiction, and examined recidivism outcomes at 1, 2, and 5 years after their entry into the pretrial phase of their federal prosecution. The assessment tool identified 65 clients as posing minimal risk, and these offenders accumulated just four arrests across 5 years. If all 65 defendants were sentenced to prison followed by supervised release, the total cost would be US$2.34 million, yet this blanket approach would have prevented just four arrests. The findings suggest two static criminal history factors coupled with age at onset of first offense and substance abuse predict excellent candidates for sentences of diversion and probation. Research implications and description of the development of the alternatives to incarceration screening work group in this jurisdiction are provided.

Personal social services for children and families in the UK: a historical review

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 72-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Bullock ◽  
Roy Parker
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
Children And Families ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to chart the history of personal social services for children and families in the UK and examine the factors that have influenced it. Special attention is given to changing perceptions of rights, the impact of scandals and the contribution of child development research. Design/methodology/approach Analysis of historical documents and research reports using four methods: a timeline of milestones, demarcation of distinct developmental periods, trends in policy and practice and comparisons of children’s needs and experiences at different times. Findings The evolution of services has not been linear. In policy, there have been reform and retrenchment, amalgamation and differentiation. Practice has been shaped by the emergence of new problems and the disappearance of old ones as well as by legislation, extreme events, research and finance, all occurring in specific political, moral and economic contexts. Originality/value An analysis of developments in children’s services in their political, economic, moral and research contexts.

scholarly journals GOVERNANCE AS A TOOL FOR BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Blessing Prince Nwanganga ◽  
Success Anaba
Keyword(s):  
International Development ◽  
Role Theory ◽  
Current Issue ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
The Core ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Impact

Governance matters are arguably at the core of international development. This paper addresses the role theory, policy and practice play in shaping matters of governance as it concerns business development in Nigeria. The paper is organised in three parts, In the first part, the theories on the governance and development nexus are outlined. In the second, the role of governance and its relevance to business development is discussed; here, the concepts, principles and framework for enhanced governance in business are brought to the fore, selected reviews by scholars and practitioners and numerous current key issues are highlighted. In the third part, the impact of governance in business practice is examined. Reviews and current issue related to the impact of governance in business development are also discussed. Besides, lessons are drawn from the review of contributions from selected scholars. The conclusion of this paper is threefold: first, it is a fallacy that there is a preeminent system of governance that is universally applicable for business development; second, the relevant theories on the subject have a remarkably limited role to play in sculpting policy and practice; and, third, perhaps the single most important problem in policies and practices on governance for development is the failure to temper interventions to the contextual dynamics found in each developing country setting.

The Optimal Design of Logistics Distribution Network with Pre-Sale Period of High-Value and Time-Varying Product under E-Commerce

2011 ◽  
Vol 204-210 ◽  
pp. 1450-1453
Author(s):  
Si Jing Liu ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Guo Qi Li
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Marketing Strategies ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Logistics Distribution ◽  
The Core ◽  
Brand Recognition ◽  
Over Time

Within the context of the different product types and marketing strategies involved in ecommerce transactions, this paper suggested that high-value and time-varying products (HVTVP) made up the core of the market. These products are characterized by high brand recognition, high market price, price decay over time, and stable physical properties. This paper analyzed the structure of the pre-sale period of HVTVP and described the pre-sale period by dividing it into distinct functions. Based on this analysis, it discussed the characteristics of the logistics distribution network during the pre-sale period and established a decentralized bi-level programming model for the logistics distribution network of HVTVP within this period. This model was solved using an interactive fuzzy algorithm, which was tested and verified through numerical analysis.

Student Mobility and Migrant Knowledge

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-77
Author(s):  
J.J. Vauterin ◽  
T. Virkki-Hatakka ◽  
K.E. Michelsen
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Student Mobility ◽  
Knowledge Flows ◽  
Knowledge Flow ◽  
Current Policy ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Assessment Policy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

For a better understanding of the impact of global student flows on industries and knowledge societies, we need to rethink the relationship between global student mobility and migrant knowledge. The authors elaborate on the view that current policy and practice relating to higher education mobility puts too much emphasis on mobilizing pools of knowledge, thereby ignoring the fact that knowledge flows tend to be concentrated among people who are actively participating in the knowledge flow. Adopting a shared social context perspective on the dynamics of knowledge flow embedded in mobile minds may enable a better assessment to be made of the impact of student mobility over time on industries and societies. Given such an assessment, policy and practice measures can be developed to encourage those involved in the knowledge flow to exploit student talent flow more effectively.

Factors Influencing the Responses of Crisis Intervention Team–Certified Law Enforcement Officers

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 388-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivian B. Lord ◽  
Beth Bjerregaard ◽  
Kristie R. Blevins ◽  
Holly Whisman
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Crisis Intervention ◽  
Law Enforcement Officers ◽  
Crisis Intervention Team ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Intervention Team ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Research indicates that Crisis Intervention Team (CIT) programs, a police response to citizens with mental illness (consumers), are beneficial; however, much of it is qualitative and limited to assessing the impact of the training CIT officers receive without considering other factors affecting consumer dispositional outcomes. It also is unclear whether the observed benefits persist over time. The purpose of this research is to use empirical data to address some of these unanswered questions, especially as they surround officer behavior. This study found differences between large and small law enforcement agencies and changes in dispositions of consumers over time. Policy and practice implications are discussed.

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