Inverting Risk Assessment: Considering the Lowest Risk Clients in the Federal Criminal Justice System

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 1043-1063
Author(s):  
Matt DeLisi ◽  
Michael Elbert ◽  
Katherine Tahja

More than 30% of federal defendants have no prior official criminal history other than their present offense, and despite the low-risk nature of a large group of federal defendants, more than nine out of every 10 serve time in prison. Because of the overincarceration of low-risk defendants, the high cost of incarceration, and other developing evidence, there is growing interest in federal jurisdictions to develop alternatives to incarceration for defendants who pose little risk to public safety. Using pilot data from 1,046 federal pretrial defendants in a federal jurisdiction in the Midwestern United States, the current study developed a low-risk actuarial tool, validated the low-risk actuarial tool on a sample of pretrial candidates from the same federal jurisdiction, and examined recidivism outcomes at 1, 2, and 5 years after their entry into the pretrial phase of their federal prosecution. The assessment tool identified 65 clients as posing minimal risk, and these offenders accumulated just four arrests across 5 years. If all 65 defendants were sentenced to prison followed by supervised release, the total cost would be US$2.34 million, yet this blanket approach would have prevented just four arrests. The findings suggest two static criminal history factors coupled with age at onset of first offense and substance abuse predict excellent candidates for sentences of diversion and probation. Research implications and description of the development of the alternatives to incarceration screening work group in this jurisdiction are provided.

Author(s):  
Helen Hodges ◽  
Kevin Fahey

BackgroundYoung people who have offended were, until recently, assessed using the Core ASSET Profile – a tool which determined their likelihood of reoffending based on their criminal history and practitioner scores across 12 domains. The repeated assessments provide a set of data for each individual which can be used to model how their risk of further offending varies over time. Having conducted an initial proof of concept study, this work explores the potential of extending the range of ‘risk’ and ‘protective’ factors using anonymised linked data held within the SAIL Databank. Main AimThe feasibility study is designed to establish the potential for using administrative data to develop a more sensitive assessment tool for use in the youth justice system. Specifically, the study explores the impact of being care experienced and of subsequent system contact in elevating the risk of further offending. ApproachA series of Bayesian hierarchical models will be generated which mimic the features of the Core ASSET Profile under the Scaled Approach. These include a range of time-varying and non-time varying variables matched to the individual, drawn from education, health and social services datasets as well as their court and offending records. ResultsThe anticipated findings will advance our understanding of how the likelihood of further offending varies over time for different groups, and how further system contact increases the risk. This will enable the complexity of young people’s real lives to be explored, and hence appropriate and timely interventions to be developed. ConclusionModelling under a Bayesian framework affords the opportunity to generate robust analysis based on smaller datasets. Findings have significant implications for policy and practice, particularly in the context of assessment processes across the justice system and social welfare.


2013 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie M. Tutty ◽  
Jennifer Koshan

Specialized domestic violence courts are a recentinnovation in the justice system’s response to domestic violence, with the objective of more effectively addressing domestic violence by jointly holding offenders more accountable and improving safety for victims. Calgary’s court, developed in 2001, began as a unique model focusing on DV specialization in the docket court, speeding entry into the justice system,and treatment for low risk offenders. In 2005, DV specialization was expanded to the trial court. This article presents data on over 6,407 cases from a ten-year period, 1998 to 2008, capturing the development of the model over the years from baseline, specialized docket to specialized trial courts. The results cover the characteristics of the accused and victims, criminal history, and court outcomes. It also presents a summary of the results of interviews with justice and community stakeholders and men mandated totreatment. Implications for the justice system and for jurisdictions considering developing a specialized DV court approach are presented.


2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 1944-1955 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Schwarz ◽  
Elizabeth C. Ward ◽  
Petrea Cornwell ◽  
Anne Coccetti ◽  
Pamela D'Netto ◽  
...  

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine (a) the agreement between allied health assistants (AHAs) and speech-language pathologists (SLPs) when completing dysphagia screening for low-risk referrals and at-risk patients under a delegation model and (b) the operational impact of this delegation model. Method All AHAs worked in the adult acute inpatient settings across three hospitals and completed training and competency evaluation prior to conducting independent screening. Screening (pass/fail) was based on results from pre-screening exclusionary questions in combination with a water swallow test and the Eating Assessment Tool. To examine the agreement of AHAs' decision making with SLPs, AHAs ( n = 7) and SLPs ( n = 8) conducted an independent, simultaneous dysphagia screening on 51 adult inpatients classified as low-risk/at-risk referrals. To examine operational impact, AHAs independently completed screening on 48 low-risk/at-risk patients, with subsequent clinical swallow evaluation conducted by an SLP with patients who failed screening. Results Exact agreement between AHAs and SLPs on overall pass/fail screening criteria for the first 51 patients was 100%. Exact agreement for the two tools was 100% for the Eating Assessment Tool and 96% for the water swallow test. In the operational impact phase ( n = 48), 58% of patients failed AHA screening, with only 10% false positives on subjective SLP assessment and nil identified false negatives. Conclusion AHAs demonstrated the ability to reliably conduct dysphagia screening on a cohort of low-risk patients, with a low rate of false negatives. Data support high level of agreement and positive operational impact of using trained AHAs to perform dysphagia screening in low-risk patients.


Author(s):  
Sarah Esther Lageson

Online criminal histories document and publicize even minor brushes with the law and represent people who may not even be guilty of any crime. This has dramatically changed the relationship that millions of Americans have with the criminal justice system and may affect their social and private lives. Drawing on interviews and fieldwork with people attempting to expunge and legally seal their criminal records, I explore how online versions of these records impact family relationships. Many who appear on mug shot and criminal history websites are arrestees who are never formally charged or convicted of a crime. The indiscriminate posting of all types of justice contact on websites may impact those who, for the most part, desist from crime and are core contributors to their family and community. I find that many of those who are affected by the stigma of online records did not know that records existed until they “popped up” unexpectedly, and that this experience leads them to self-select out of family duties that contribute to child well-being.


Author(s):  
Suzanne V Arnold ◽  
Kasia J Lipska ◽  
Jingyan Wang ◽  
Leo Seman ◽  
Sanjeev N Mehta ◽  
...  

Background: Older adults with diabetes are less likely to benefit and more likely to be harmed by intensive glucose control. Prior research has shown that many older adults continue to be intensively managed despite guidelines that recommend that treatment targets should be relaxed in these patients. As many new agents have been introduced with minimal risk of hypoglycemia, we examined contemporary data to understand to what extent older patients with diabetes are still intensively managed with agents that can cause hypoglycemia. Methods: We examined A1c and treatment data in adults ≥75 years with type 2 diabetes from 151 US outpatient sites in DCR. Patients were categorized as poor control (A1c >9%), moderate control (A1c >8-9%), conservative control (A1c 7-8%), tight control/low-risk agents (A1c <7% on meds with low risk for hypoglycemia), and tight control/high-risk agents (A1c <7% on insulin, sulfonylureas, or meglitinides). Adults with A1c <7% on no glucose-lowering medications were excluded. We used hierarchical logistic regression to examine patient and site factors associated with tight control/high-risk agents vs. conservative control or tight control/low-risk agents. Results: Among 30,696 older adults with diabetes, 5,596 (18%) had moderate or poor control, 9,227 (30%) conservative control, 7,893 (26%) tight control/low-risk agents, and 7,980 (26%) tight control/high-risk agents (Fig. A). Older age, male sex, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and coronary artery disease were each independently associated with a greater odds of tight control/high-risk agents (Fig. B). After adjusting for patient factors, there were no differences among practice specialties (endocrinology, primary care, cardiology) in how aggressively patients were managed. Conclusion: Despite greater availability of agents that do not cause hypoglycemia, a quarter of older adults with type 2 diabetes are tightly controlled with high-risk medications. These results suggest potential overtreatment of a substantial proportion of patients. Efforts are needed to provide more specific guidance on how to safely treat older adults with diabetes (both through targeting treatment with low-risk agents and through de-escalation of glucose control) and then to efficiently translate that guidance into busy clinical practice.


Author(s):  
Michael Tonry

Predictions of future violence by individuals are substantially more often wrong than right. Minority offenders are more often incorrectly predicted to be violent than are white offenders. White offenders are more often incorrectly predicted to be nonviolent than are minority offenders. Use of socioeconomic status variables is per se unjust and disproportionately affects minority offenders. Use of criminal history variables exaggerates differences between minority and white offenders, and increases racial and ethnic disparities. It is unjust ever to punish someone more severely than he or she deserves because of a prediction of dangerousness (or for any other reason). Increasing the severity of a sentence on the basis of risk prediction punishes offenders in advance for crimes they would not have committed. Judges and others using prediction instruments more often disregard low-risk predictions for poor and black offenders than for affluent ones.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 107602962093735
Author(s):  
Raein Ghazvinian ◽  
Johan Elf ◽  
Sofia Löfvendahl ◽  
Jan Holst ◽  
Anders Gottsäter

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) are first line treatment for pulmonary embolism (PE). Treatment of acute PE is traditionally hospital based and associated with high costs. The aims of this study were to evaluate potential cost savings with outpatient DOAC treatment compared to inpatient DOAC treatment in patients with low risk PE. A retrospective study in patients with DOAC treated low risk PE (simplified pulmonary severity index [sPESI] ≤ 1) admitted to 8 hospitals during 2013-2015. Health care costs were compared in 223(44%) patients treated as outpatients and 287(56%) treated in hospital. Total cost per patient was 8293 EUR in the inpatient group, and 2176 EUR in the outpatient group (p < 0.001). Total costs for inpatients were higher (p < 0.001) compared to outpatients in both subgroups with sPESI 0 and 1. In multivariate analysis, type of treatment (in- or outpatient, p = < 0.001) and sPESI group (0 or 1, p = < 0.001) were associated with total cost below or above median, whereas age (p = 0.565) and gender (p = 0.177) was not. Adherence to guidelines recommending outpatient treatment with DOAC in patients with low risk PE enables significant savings.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 2360-2360
Author(s):  
Tiffany Pompa ◽  
Mark Maddox ◽  
Adonas Woodard ◽  
Jeurkar Chet ◽  
Maelys Amat ◽  
...  

Abstract Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant disorder characterized by the asymptomatic presence of a monoclonal protein. It is defined by an M protein < 3 gm/dl, less than 10% clonal plasma cells in the bone marrow, and the absence of anemia, hypercalcemia, renal insufficiency and bone lesions. In 2010 the International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) advocated for MGUS patients to be stratified into low risk disease, which carries a 5% risk of progression to multiple myeloma at 20 years, and high risk disease, which represents a 20% risk at 20 years. This stratification model categorizes patients as low risk if they have an IgG paraprotein with an M-component < 1.5 g/dl and a normal free light chain (FLC) ratio. As such, it is suggested that the initial workup be comprised of a serum protein electrophoresis (SPEP), an immunofixation (IFE), and a FLC ratio. A bone marrow biopsy (BM) and bone survey should only be performed if anemia, hypercalcemia or an elevated creatinine of unclear etiology is noted. If these studies place a patient into the low risk, it is suggested the patient follow up at 6-months with only an SPEP. If the SPEP is stable, the next follow-up is recommended to occur at 2 to 3 year intervals unless symptoms arise suggestive of a plasma cell dyscrasia. The risk stratification of MGUS patients was validated in 2013 by Turesson et al. in a Swedish cohort (Blood, 2014; 123:338-345). Nevertheless, the risk model is not universally accepted and unnecessary office visits along with laboratory studies are performed on low risk patients. The purpose of this study was to perform an internal retrospective review of our patients diagnosed with low risk MGUS, evaluating excess medical costs incurred when patients were not risk stratified by the IMWG recommendations. Methods: MGUS patients seen in the Hematology Oncology Division of Drexel University between 2014 and 2016 were retrospectively categorized into high and low risk based on the IMWG criteria. Those determined to be low risk were evaluated over two years for extra costs incurred outside the IMWG recommendations. Extra cost was tallied based on initial workup and surveillance studies performed up to two years from diagnosis. Costs per test and follow up visits were based on our office appointment pricing and BM biopsy charges. Laboratory costs were obtained based on pricing from ACCU reference lab. Cost per test (varies by lab/provider) SPEP $67 UPEP $130 Serum IFE $200 Urine IFE $72 IgA $27 IgG $27 IgM $27 K/L ratio $120 B2 microglobulin $42 Office Visit $40 - $100 Bone Survey $500 - $1200 BM biopsy $500- $1000 Results: Sixty patients seen between 2014 and 2016 met the criteria for MGUS. Twenty-eight patients were determined to have low risk disease. Of the 28 patients, five were diagnosed prior to 2010 and were excluded. In the remaining 23 patients, four followed up at exactly six months from diagnosis and only one had an SPEP. The most common test ordered was quantitative immunoglobulins (QI) aside from a CBC and CMP. The total number of excess office visits was 49. Three patients had unnecessary BM biopsies (total cost $1,000 - $2,000), and 11 had unnecessary bone surveys (Total $5,500 - $13,200). The total cost of unnecessary lab tests within 2 years was $6,024 and the total cost of unnecessary office visits within 2 years was $1960 - $4900. Thus, the average excess spent per patient was $630 - $1135, for a total excess cost for the 23 patients of $14,484 - $26,124. Conclusion: This internal review highlights the excess medical costs incurred when patients are not risk stratified by the IMWG recommendations. Ideally, no further health care dollars should be spent for low risk MGUS patients who have a stable SPEP at the 6-month visit until the 2 or 3 year follow up visit. The actual excess amount spent in our office in 2 years for these patients was $14,484 - $26,124 beyond the cost of the standard of care recommended by the IMWG guidelines. Additionally, these values did not include excess basic labs such as a CBC or CMP and it did not include extension of our investigation out to three years which would result in further unnecessary costs. One patient was noted to accumulate excess cost due to his co-morbid condition of prostate cancer, which led to increased surveillance for his low risk MGUS. The risk stratification model allows physicians to offer patients a better understanding of their disease, decrease the patient's burden and reduce the cost on healthcare. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 456-456
Author(s):  
Jill-Isabel Kilb ◽  
Arne Hauptmann ◽  
Florian Wagenlehner ◽  
Gerson Luedecke

456 Background: High risk NMIBC is a dangerous BC with a challenging treatment by BCG or early cystectomy to cure. The first has bad treatment tolerance and a remission of about 35%, whereas the last offer a curing perspective of 84% with extremely bad living conditions. RITE checked prospectively the therapy in respect to organ preservation, curing rate and risk of progression over 10 years in a single institution experience. Methods: All patients were EORTC high risk NMIBC. Treatment with induction phase: 8 treatments weekly with 2x40 mg Mitomycin C, 42°C intravesically induced by RITE. Followed by a re-resection of the bladder at week 11 to ensure complete remission and maintenance with treatments every 6 weeks with 2x20 mg Mitomycin C for 6 times. Cystoscopy controls were performed first 2 years every 3 month and following in 6 month until now. Study started in 2006 ongoing until today. Results: We enrolled 67 patients (4 female, 63 male), 65.7% Cis positive rate. 85% of the patients were treated alternatively to BCG with primary RITE whereas 15% were BCG failure patients treated alternatively to indicated cystectomy. Tumor persistence at week 11 after induction therapy proven by TURB was (10/67) 14.9% resulting in early cystectomy (4/10). Mean recurrence free time 3.5 years. In case of recurrence 10.4% progressed to MIBC including 6% metastatic tumors, high risk NMIBC was observed in 6% resulting in cystectomy and low risk NMIBC recurrence was 1.5% with organ preservation. BC death rate was 1 out of 67. Incomplete treatments induced by SAE of RITE was 9%. Bladder preservation rate was 80.6% with a long-lasting effectiveness ( > 5 years) of 14/26 (53.8%). Conclusions: The RITE method is in short- and long-term manner a powerful procedure to cure and maintain a recurrence free BC status in high risk NMIBC with a very low risk for cystectomy and a minimal risk for systemic progression resulting in BC death. The organ preservation rate was achieved in 80.6% lasting for up to 11 years longest. RITE is an alternative to BCG and preferable to early cystectomy in high risk NMIBC.


2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 543-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian O'Sullivan ◽  
Shao Hui Huang ◽  
Lillian L. Siu ◽  
John Waldron ◽  
Helen Zhao ◽  
...  

Purpose To define human papillomavirus (HPV) –positive oropharyngeal cancers (OPC) suitable for treatment deintensification according to low risk of distant metastasis (DM). Patients and Methods OPC treated with radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiotherapy (CRT) from 2001 to 2009 were included. Outcomes were compared for HPV-positive versus HPV-negative patients. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified outcome predictors. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) stratified the DM risk. Results HPV status was ascertained in 505 (56%) of 899 consecutive OPCs. Median follow-up was 3.9 years. HPV-positive patients (n = 382), compared with HPV-negative patients (n = 123), had higher local (94% v 80%, respectively, at 3 years; P < .01) and regional control (95% v 82%, respectively; P < .01) but similar distant control (DC; 90% v 86%, respectively; P = .53). Multivariate analysis identified that HPV negativity (hazard ratio [HR], 2.9; 95% CI, 2.0 to 5.0), N2b-N3 (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.8 to 4.9), T4 (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.9), and RT alone (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.5) predicted a lower recurrence-free survival (RFS; all P < .01). Smoking pack-years > 10 reduced overall survival (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.7; P = .03) but did not impact RFS (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.7 to 1.9; P = .65). RPA segregated HPV-positive patients into low (T1-3N0-2c; DC, 93%) and high DM risk (N3 or T4; DC, 76%) groups and HPV-negative patients into different low (T1-2N0-2c; DC, 93%) and high DM risk (T3-4N3; DC, 72%) groups. The DC rates for HPV-positive, low-risk N0-2a or less than 10 pack-year N2b patients were similar for RT alone and CRT, but the rate was lower in the N2c subset managed by RT alone (73% v 92% for CRT; P = .02). Conclusion HPV-positive T1-3N0-2c patients have a low DM risk, but N2c patients from this group have a reduced DC when treated with RT alone and seem less suited for deintensification strategies that omit chemotherapy.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document