scholarly journals ANALISIS VECTOR AUTO REGRESSIVE (VAR) TERHADAP KORELASI ANTARA BELANJA PUBLIK DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI SULAWESI SELATAN, TAHUN 1985-2005

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abustan Abustan ◽  
Mahyuddin Mahyuddin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Disturbance Factor ◽  
Test Of Hypothesis ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Optimum Model ◽  
Auto Regression

Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is an analysis or statistic method which can be used to predict time series variable and to analyst dynamic impact of disturbance factor in the variable system. In addition, VAR analysis is very useful to assess the interrelationship between economic variables. This research through the following test phases: unit root test, test of hypothesis, Granger causality test, and form a vector autoregresion model (VAR). The data used in this research is the GDP data and budget data of South Sulawesi in the period 1985-2004. The research aims to analyze the interrelationship between public expenditure and economic growth in South Sulawesi. The result showed statistically significant in economic growth (PDRB) influence public expenditure (APBD), however, not vice versa. Otherwise, for the need of APBD prediction, the used of lag 4 was the optimum model based on the causal relationship to PDRB.

scholarly journals ANALISIS STRATEGI PEMANFAATAN LIMBAH TANAMAN PANGAN SEBAGAI PAKAN RUMINANSIA DI SULAWESI SELATAN

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 199
Author(s):  
Jasmal A. Syamsu ◽  
Agustina Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Disturbance Factor ◽  
Test Of Hypothesis ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Optimum Model ◽  
Auto Regression

Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is an analysis or statistic method which can be used to predict time series variable and to analyst dynamic impact of disturbance factor in the variable system. In addition, VAR analysis is very useful to assess the interrelationship between economic variables. This research through the following test phases: unit root test, test of hypothesis, Granger causality test, and form a vector autoregresion model (VAR). The data used in this research is the GDP data and budget data of South Sulawesi in the period 1985-2004. The research aims to analyze the interrelationship between public expenditure and economic growth in South Sulawesi. The result showed statistically significant in economic growth (PDRB) influence public expenditure (APBD), however, not vice versa. Otherwise, for the need of APBD prediction, the used of lag 4 was the optimum model based on the causal relationship to PDRB.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENYALURAN PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, NISBAH BAGI HASIL DEPOSITOMUDHARABAH, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TERHADAPPERTUMBUHAN DEPOSITO MUDHARABAH DI BANK SYARIAH MANDIRI PERIODE 2006:01-2011:12

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Iqra Aulia
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Dynamic Impact ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Disturbance Factor ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Auto Regression

<p>Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is an analysis or statistic method which can be used to predict time series variable and to analyst dynamic impact of disturbance factor in the variable system. In addition, VAR analysis is very usefull to assess the interrelationship between economics variable. This research through the following test phases: unit root test, optimal lag test, granger causality test, and form a vector auto regression model (VAR). The data used in this research is interest rate (i), profit low sharing of mudharabah deposits (nBH), economic growth (gGDP, growth of mudharabah deposits volume (gVM) in the period 2006:01-2011:12. The effectiveness was measured by two indicators. This study used secondary data issued by Syariah Mandiri Bank &amp; Bank Indonesia. The result of the study shows that response velocity of variable in growth of mudharabah deposits volume (gVM) towards shock instrument of interest rate(i) until reach the final target about 4 months. Thus we can conclude that growth of mudharabah deosits volume through Interest Rate is not effective in Indonesia period of 2006:01-2011:12. Keyword: Vector Auto Regression (VAR), growth of mudharabah deposits volume (gVM), The Interest Rate.</p>

scholarly journals Economic Growth And Unemployment: An Empirical Assessment of Okun’s Law In The Case of Liberia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaiballah Conteh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Flexible Labor ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government

The aim of this research is to look at the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Liberia from 2001 to 2019. To investigate the association between unemployment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the unit root test, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Co-integration test, and the Standard Granger Causality test were used. The Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) bounds test is used to decide if the variables have a long run linkage. The ARDL model findings indicate that there is no long-run association between unemployment and economic growth. The findings of this analysis have especially significant policy implications for Liberian economic policymakers. The observational findings revealed a negligible association between unemployment and economic growth in both the long and short term. The Liberian government should redirect its spending toward activities that directly and indirectly promote the creation of employment and decent jobs, a conducive environment and flexible labor market policies or legislation that are not impediments to job creation should be created, and finally, the government should prioritize industries that promote labor intensive.

scholarly journals Islamic Finance and Economic Growth Nexus: An Econometric Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-22
Author(s):  
Kashif Raza ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Abdul Rehman Shah ◽  
Muhammad Umar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation

Researchers have written chain of research papers about the dynamics of financial development and economic growth. The financial capital plays a productive role when it delivers to economic agents who are facing shortage or excess of funds.  This study explores the linkages among Islamic financing and economic growth for Pakistan, by using annual time series data from 2005-2018. Islamic banks’ financing funds used as a proxy of Islamic financing, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), labor force (LF),Broad money(M) and Trade openness (TO) to presents real sector of an economy. For the exploration, the unit root test, Ordinary least square technique and Granger causality test are applied. The results validate a substantial causal relationship of Islamic financing and GDP, which supports the Schumpeter’s supply-leading view. The results indicate that Islamic finance contributed towards economic growth.  

scholarly journals Linear and Nonlinear Causal Relationships Between International Reserves and Economic Growth: Evidence from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-59
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kashif ◽  
Satish Kumar Singh ◽  
S. Thiyagarajan ◽  
Abhishek Maheshwari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Bds Test

This study investigates linear and nonlinear causal relationships between accumulated international reserves (IR) and economic growth (Econ) in the case of India. The present study is carried out using quarterly data ranging from the period of the first quarter of 1985 to the fourth quarter of 2014. The study used econometric tools such as the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the linear Granger causality test, Johansen’s cointegration test, the Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (BDS) test and the nonlinear Granger causality test developed by Hiemstra and Jones. The study establishes that there exists a bidirectional linear causality. The Hiemstra and Jones test reveals a bidirectional nonlinear causal relationship between the variables. In light of these results, the study suggests that reserves accumulation can be implemented in India provided that excess of reserves are invested in alternative sources such as economic infrastructure projects and regional infrastructure development.

Contribution of StockMarket Towards Economic Growth: An Empirical Study on Bangladesh Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Rezina ◽  
Nusrat Jahan ◽  
Mohitul Ameen Ahmed Mustafi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

The economic growth of a country is influenced by many different factors. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Bangladesh as well as the impact of stock market performance upon the economic growth of Bangladesh. The stock market performance has been measured by market capitalization ratio, number of listed companies, total value traded and turnover ratio; and the economic growth was represented by real gross domestic product. The periods taken for study were from year 1994 to year 2015.The effect of the stock market reform will also be addressed to explain the relationship. The study has been conducted using Augmented Dickey- Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test. The findings of the research should help the policy makers and regulators to look after their interest in the financial sector of the country.

scholarly journals Causal Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1970-2013

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uwazie I. U. ◽  
Igwemma A. A. ◽  
Nnabu Bernard Eze
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run

Foreign direct investment is presumed to play immense role in economic growth in both developed and developing economies. This assumption has motivated the army of studies to actually determine the nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria. But these studies were not unified on the direction of the causation, hence the need for the study. To effectively analyze the result, the study employs vector error correction model method of causality to analyze the annual data for the periods of 1970 to 2013. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test show presence of unit root at level but stationary after first difference. The Johansen cointegration test confirms that the variables are cointegrated while the granger causality test affirms that foreign direct investment and economic growth reinforce each other in the short run in Nigeria. Also, it is reported that foreign direct investment granger cause economic growth both in the short and long run in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study advocates the adoption of aggressive policy reforms to boost investors’ confidence and promotion of qualitative human capital development to lure FDI into the country. It also suggests the introduction of selective openness to allow only the inflow of FDI that have the capacity to spillover to the economy. These will attract FDI and boost economic growth in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Causal Linkage amongst Public Expenditure on Health, Health Status and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from Toda-Yamamoto Approach for Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley Emife Nwani ◽  
Ikechukwu Kelikume
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Health Status ◽  
National Health ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the causal linkages amongst public expenditure on health, health status and economic growth in Nigeria using the Toda-Yamamoto technique. The choice of the Toda-Yamamoto approach is predicated on its simplicity and the ability to overcome the shortcomings inherent in the conventional causality procedures by producing more robust results through the estimation of the augmented VAR that guarantees the asymptotic distribution of the Wald statistic. To this end, the study collected annual time series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicator on public expenditure on health, life expectancy, infant mortality and real gross domestic product spanning 38 years from 1981 to 2018. The result of the study’s empirical analysis based on the co-integration test indicates that public health expenditure, health status and economic growth have long-run association. Further, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test result reveals the absence of causality between health expenditure and health status. Similarly, health status and economic growth are not causally interdependent. On the basis of the findings, the paper vehemently concludes that efforts to stimulate economic growth by targeting health outcomes improvement through public expenditure will be futile. As such, there is the need to develop better national health policy and programmes such as compulsory national health insurance that is capable of resolving the fundamental problems in the health sector. This would help integrate healthcare into the mainstream of the Nigerian economy.

scholarly journals The Role of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Economic Growth in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. g11-17
Author(s):  
Tien Siew
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in Malaysia. The sample collected for this empirical study covered 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. The secondary data was collected annually and a total of 30 observations were taken for each variable. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, unit root test, several diagnostic tests and Granger causality test were used in this research to investigate the relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth. Eviews 11 was used to analyze the time series data throughout all the tests. The result showed that the inflows of FDI has a significant negative relationship with economic growth and there is no causal relationship between FDI and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Keywords: Economic growth, FDI inflows, Granger Causality Test, Ordinary Least Square regression, Unit Root Test

scholarly journals PENGUJIAN KAUSALITAS ANTARA VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DENGAN RETURN PASAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA : SEBUAH PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTO

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Anggi Hapsari Nurullita
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression

<p>Indicators of macroeconomic have major impact on capital markets in general and stocks in particular. Influence of these indicators can be positive or negative. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is a method of analysis used to predict the time series variable and analyze the dynamic impact factor interference in a system variable. VAR analysis is very useful to assess the linkages between economic variables. This research aims to see the influence of iIndicators of macroeconomic such as the exchange rate (EXCHANGE), interest rate Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and rate of inflation (INFLATION) to market return (REIHSG) in Indonesian Stock Exchange in the period 2004:1-2011:10. Data obtained from the Monthly Stock Price Index Statistics JSX. This research appllying several stages of testing as follows: unit root test, the optimal lag test, Granger causality test and Vector Auto Regression model (VAR). The results of unit root test in this study suggests that the data used for processing in the first degree and VAR Granger test because only the stationary stock index return variable in zero degree (level). On the test results suggested the optimal lag is the lag 3. On the Granger causality test is known that the Granger test variable rate (EXCHANGE) has a one-way impact or the exchange rate (EXCHANGE) affect market return (REIHSG) interest rate of Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and the rate of inflation (INFLATION) has a two direction or impact mutual Causality. These results indicate that there is a weak Granger causality between interest rates Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and rate of inflation (INFLATION) to market return (REIHSG).<br />Keywords: Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), Macroeconomic, Granger Causality, IHSG stock return</p>

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